3 areas to determine tonights OZ NZ match at Suncorp

With 14 hours to go until a potential dress rehearsal of the World cup final the match tonight takes on huge significance. For me there are three main aspects that will contribute to the outcome of this match.

1 Preparation

Rather than try and secure the 3N with a bonus point victory in SA by taking his full A side GH has used the SA leg to resolve two important issues- one was to determine the form of key players who either had not played for a very long time, or hadnt convinced they were ready for the World cup stage.

The other issue was to ensure the best preparation for the defence of the 3N- winning the finale in Brisbane. Last year it is Henry's thinking that the Sydney match, one the AB's only just managed to win, was made more difficult by taking the full A team via SA to get there. His theory is that a SA/ Oz trip took on toll on the team as a whole. So key players were rested.

Winning in SA with the B(ish) team would have been a bonus and would have made the job easier. But just as easily a Bok backlash from the Oz match on an AB A side could have left a fatigued top side in tatters against a fired up hungry and rested Oz side. As it stands all reports out of Oz suggest the AB's have prepared well and are ready for this in every aspect.

Australias preparation can perhaps be described as 'Unsteady'. From where I sit, unexpected events seem to have steered Deans preparation in a way he would not have preferred and can only be put down to poor misjudgement of his teams abilities and resources.

The Samoa loss has thrown things into the mix team selection wise as in the one match Oz rugby depth was exposed terribly. Deans underestimation of Samoa and overestimation of his undercard side has undermined the Oz 2011 season in one sharp jolt.

He has since been forced to play his top side every match, initially to quell the fire of the Oz media and fans to regain their confidence, and now to have a hope of winning the 3N, and perhaps a major adavantage before going onto the big stage. He is lucky he has not been inflicted with serious injuries to key players given the lack of equal ability replacements.

The other misjudgement Deans has made is the need to front up physically. In short Oz were bashed by Samoa and again bashed by NZ at Eden Park. They have done well against both SA sides (albeit it one a B, one as rusty as an old nail) but both were good wins. To make up for the lack of physicality he has had them bashing eachother up all week to a point that Genia nearly pulled out with concussion. I would have to question his tactics but if that is what he thinks it will take to bring them up to par, so be it. Tonight we'll see.

2 Team selections
The selection of Samo and Vickerman, largely to support the lack of physicality has its potential flaws. Samo was brilliant for the Reds, at times I couldnt believe the presence of the man on the field and he was one of the key reasons they did so well. But as we've seen before the ability to jump from super rugby to test is not an easy one and I believe he'll be caught well short tonight. He last played test rugby 7 years ago and his last big match was the sxv final some weeks ago. To then come into a test of this importance- a 3N final being as big as it gets outside a world cup is asking a lot. Probably too much, and I think he'll struggle to impose the physically required by Deans at this level.

The lack of JOC in midfield combined with the presence of Nonu and Smith in it swings this area back to the AB's, an area that will be important once the ball manages to clear the largely even forwards/ inside backs. JOC's ability to make key yards in tiny amounts of space will be missed. Faaingas presence will be key defensively but given this test will be about bashing anyway, JOC's abilities to break the line will be sorely missed, and the midfield will be more about attacking opportunities.

The selection of Genia with his reports of head injuries this week will leave the 9/ 10 area vulnerable to pressure and lack of confidence once the AB loosies get into their space as they did at Eden Park. An obvious area to target as with JOC gone its a long way out to Beale and Ioane so keeping those 2 pairings separate will be key.

The packs will probably count eachother out scrum time and Lineouts but the AB loosies will look to providing the basis of the win at breakdown and domination of the Oz inside backs.

I don't think the change in Captaincy will adveresly affect Oz, in fact it may help Elsom play much better and I think Horwill is made of the right stuff. And at Suncorp Cooper should be ok with the goalkicking so even there unless his waning confidence gives him JOC's yips from Eden Park.

3 Confidence
The ABs have largely remained consistent in the confidence levels. They have the team that can win matches so that makes it easier. In GH they have an astute coach and a selection team that have organised things in a way that just allows them to get on with the game. The AB jersey itself is the biggest motivating factor as usual, and will be tonight. The AB's appear relaxed, yet focussed.

Contrastingly, Oz confidence levels have waivered significantly. They stooped to new lows after an unexpected Samoa loss, then suddenly soared to the heavens after beating the SA2 side. Came down again after Eden Park and have now evened out to a healthy level about where it probably should be- not overboard but well aware that performance and not hype and chatter will get them there.

I have focussed more on the Oz side of things largely because thats where things have been happening. Unexpected losses, media ramp ups, disciplinary issues etc. The AB's have as usual gone about trying to do what they usually do- win rugby matches.

I can't see an area where Oz are clearly on top of NZ but performance can make up for that. Just not sure where that will come from.

We have a healthy respect for Oz rugby and tonight will be no different. I dont think the Suncorp factor plays a part as Reds have won there and so have the AB's. So it just becomes a great venue to play at.

For me the 3 factors above are telling and this match is more for the AB's to lose. It has nothing to do with eithers Wcup chances and should be a cracker!!

Forgot to post a prediction... AB's by 14, more due to what Oz don't have rather than what they AB's do.

you make it look like the Wobblies are a team in pieces?? Thats hardly the case .Sure they r gonna lose today but i'm betting on them to be in the World Cup final and if NZ dont make it the Wobblies are taking the cup.

I think it'll be a helluva game. I've said I think the Aussies will win the World Cup for a couple of years and I'm still **** scared that will come to fruition.

Taylorman

I think you're mistaken to think that a loss will not affect either's RWC chances.. at least in IMO.

If Aus lose at home, at the suncorp they will have few reasons to fall back on to say why they did. O'Connor may not be playing but he is not the messiah.... Cooper is far more important to their gameplan.

Aus will suffer mentally from a loss... if they face NZ in the final or at any other stage of the RWC how can they realistically think they can win against NZ in NZ when they get stuffed in their own backyard.

Win and they will have beaten NZ, won the 3N for first time in near 10 years and will generate real belief within themselves.

For NZ.. if they lose it won't be a disaster but it will chip away at them... we're not near certain to win, we could lose... at home. The pressure will build whilst NZ don't play either SA or Aus and it could get unbearable.

Bullsbok

I myself think Aus are real dark horses for the RWC... but they may face a massive challenge in Andrew Sheridan in the SF... there has been no evidence to suggest Aus forward play has at all improved in last 4 years to compete with this sort of forward onslaught.
England are 2-0 on Aus at the moment (1 home, 1 away) and Eng seem to be a bogey side for Aus... last 3 RWC KO matches, ENG have walked away victors.

Hi Bullsbok,
Clearly my post is biased towards the NZers and I could be wrong with the result. I don't know enough about the current state of the Oz team and I think the things I can't comment on is the unpredictable nature of the ozzies.

I mean how can I? Yet thats probably their greatest strength. Despite all this they can also use all this as motivation to come through. If so thats great.

Perhaps the Ozzie fans out there can comment on this as its all out of the press (perhaps with a sarky slant I do admit)

Are they in pieces? I believe in some respects they are and theres real evidence to presume some things arent right.

Depth, team unison (JOC and Paris) and lack of physicality are in question as it affects confidence- their main weapon of choice.

Doesnt mean they wont come through, theyre just indicators that they might not.

Australia 18 New Zealand 25

"Taylorman

I think you're mistaken to think that a loss will not affect either's RWC chances.. at least in IMO."

fa019
I only said it has no bearing on the Wcup because GH said it didnt. In such matters I bow to the wise one

He has an insane knack of doing and knowing the right thing to do or say.
He's not always right (Wales, Lions, 2007, Nonu in 2007, Donald duck in 2010) but he comes up with things NO ONE else even thinks of or mentions.

Besides, we beat France 61-10 in 2007 just weeks before our exit - didnt do France any harm. So in that respect, bitter experience tells him pre world cup wins, favouritism etc means nothing. Its on the day that counts.

And today is today. Later, is later.

Latest on the AB Camp... Love the McCaw Genia head comment:

"You are either right or you are not, you can't go in favouring things, and not trying to put your head in places you don't want too. If he's out there I suppose he's good to go," he said.

Isn't life simple for these guys...

http://www.allblacks.com/news/17268/McCaw-All-Blacks-all-set-to-go

3 things

Ref, genia, carter

I think the captaincy going to Horwill is a massive step in the right direction. Every great team has a great leader and Rocky just wasn't it. They will certainly miss JOC around the park but his goalkicking is pretty ordinary. We have about 3 guys in the team who can kick in the 60-70% range so if it's not him who misses it'll be someone else (I did see Berrick Barnes knock a few over from the sideline in last night's BaaBaa's game).

I don't think we'll see too much (attempted) razzle-dazzle tonight from Aus. They've gone with more grunt in the forwards and in the backs. Plus it's also miserable weather outside.

Everyone's saying the kiwi's toweled the Aussies at Eden park (and it certainly felt like it that first 20mins) but, indulge me for a second, take away the kiwi try from the restart that was knocked forward and the 3 missed Aus penalties and you've got yourself a close-ish scoreline. I cannot believe Sportsbet has the Aussies at $2.70 at home! Although, the home crowd advantage is somewhat nullifed in Brisbane because there's probably more kiwi's living in Queensland than in NZ I wonder if we'll get a rendition of Waltzing Matilda that drowns out the sound of the haka like the boks fans did in PE.

Bottom line, both teams desperately want to win this one (as is always the case anyway). Aside from a total drubbing either way I don't think this game will ultimately impact a possible world cup final. As Bredan Cannon said on the Rugby Club the other night, he wouldn't mind an Aus loss here setting up a possible world cup ambush.

My wobblies sense is telling me Aus by 12.

Hi fullcredit.
It wasnt so much the score at eden park but more the manner of the win.

The abs had the measure of the key oz areas.

Agree with tonite. My sister lives near suncorp and says its yuck weather.

That should favour abs as it blunts the key oz attack weapon.

I like horwill too. The osmosis of the reds influence into the w's is good to see.

Coopers gotta pick himself back up after plain performances. Suncorp might help him.

You're right Taylorman, any hopes I had of a wobblies win were well and truly beaten out of me after 20minutes in Auckland, and there was a bit of a consolation try by Elsom at the end to add some respectability. To use a phrase I'm getting a bit sick of, they just didn't show up.

Tonight will be a brutal, fiercely contested game I reckon. I'm predicting a big one from A Faingaa in the centres.

full Credit
You may be interested to know that Australia is paying $2.90 on the Kiwi TAB.

Dammit, I just got on at $2.70!

Full Credit wrote:

Tonight will be a brutal, fiercely contested game I reckon.

agree...
Cooooooooooool!!!

Preview of the match is at:

http://www.allblacks.com/news/17274/Preview-Australia-versus-New-Zealand

Amazing how Oz have only won 2 of 18 in Brisbane in over 100 years against NZ- did not know that...

Statistics are generally not a wallabies supporter's friend when comparing to the AB's.