IRB World Rankings ... Part 1

by Portnoy Mon 08 Aug 2011, 10:42 am

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

4Ns Round 1
http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html

September 2012

Sat 15 Rugby Championship / Freedom Cup
New Zealand v South Africa, Dunedin
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

nzl (on 92.43 points) at home -vs- rsa (on 84.20 points)

If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.000 92.43 84.20 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.000 92.43 84.20 No
If result is a draw 1.000 91.43 85.20 No
If rsa win by 1-15 points 2.000 90.43 86.20 No
If rsa win by more than 15 3.000 89.43 87.20 No

Sat 15 Rugby Championship
Australia v Argentina, Gold Coast
20:05 local, 10:05 GMT, 11:05 BST

aus (on 86.62 points) at home -vs- arg (on 79.34 points)

If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.62 79.34 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 86.62 79.34 No
If result is a draw 1.000 85.62 80.34 No
If arg win by 1-15 points 2.000 84.62 81.34 No
If arg win by more than 15 3.000 83.62 82.34 No

[ed]

Original post:

Pretty much World rankings provide both an 'official' balance sheet and P/L account of international bragging rights.

Sources:
IRB Rankings : http://www.irb.com/rankings/index.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

by Portnoy Thu 01 Sep 2011, 5:54 pm

If Argentina beat England then they overtake them in the rankings.

by Feckless Rogue Thu 01 Sep 2011, 6:37 pm

If Ireland beat Australia by more than 15 at the World Cup there'd be a 12 point swing and Ireland would overtake them, even though Ireland are 8th and Australia are 2nd. Should there rally be double ranking points at the World Cup? Seems like it skews the rankings to much.

by Portnoy Thu 01 Sep 2011, 6:51 pm

Feckless Rogue wrote:If Ireland beat Australia by more than 15 at the World Cup there'd be a 12 point swing and Ireland would overtake them, even though Ireland are 8th and Australia are 2nd. Should there rally be double ranking points at the World Cup? Seems like it skews the rankings to much.

Dunno rogue. Seems a bit OTT, but if you read the IRB guff, they spent a lot of time with the stattos et. al. getting it right.

As I say, don't shoot the messanger.

And I just plugged the numbers into a bit of software.

Robbo277 is the bloke to talk to. I'm just an interested amateur/hobbyist.

by Cymroglan Thu 01 Sep 2011, 6:56 pm

I don't take much notice of the world rankings I just use the KISS method.
You are only as good as your last performance and the key word is performance.

by Smirnoffpriest Thu 01 Sep 2011, 6:59 pm

Thats crazy! (all - Wales overtaking SA, Ire overtaking Oz and Argies/Eng) but then again I suppose the stat guys look at the likelihood of that happening, and if, for example, Ire beat Oz there's a good chance of them getting to the Semi's, and a good chance of Oz winning the rest of their games, so you would expect them to raise up the ranking quite highly.

But agree it's all a bit weird

by Feckless Rogue Thu 01 Sep 2011, 7:07 pm

No I think the stat guys have come up with a system that works very well most of the time. I just think doubling the ranking points gained and lost at a World Cup skews it unnecessarily.

by HammerofThunor Fri 02 Sep 2011, 7:57 am

In the short it may do but after a few more game they stabilise back to what would be more reasonable. Remember Ireland are probably artificially low at the moment due to the warm ups and for the past few years they haven't been that far from South Africa. At the moment with Ireland playing as they are would it not be a big shock for Ireland to beat South Africa away from home by more than 15 points?

I did look at the rankings after the 2008 6 nations to see what difference there would have been if the double points weren't awarded. Made little difference to everyone except Argentina. Should they be 'judged' on World cup performance when they have regular games and extended training periods) or when they put together a scratch side? Same goes with the PI teams. All a matter of opinion and I don't see to much of a problem.

by Guest Sat 03 Sep 2011, 11:35 am

Cymroglan wrote:I don't take much notice of the world rankings I just use the KISS method.
You are only as good as your last performance and the key word is performance.

I don't really agree with that. Sides have dips in form and also sometimes one-off matches of brilliance. Neither of these really reflect how good the side is. That's why there's a ranking system to average out how good a side is over a period of time. The rankings are a fair reflection, but can't necessarily predict one-off games.

Re. doubling the points gained/lost at the World Cup. It's THE premier international rugby tournament and ranking points at stake should reflect that. Isn't it standard practice in other sports ie more points at stake in tennis grand slam tournament or golf majors?

by Knackeredknees Sun 04 Sep 2011, 10:04 am

Just a question, as England are currently higher than all pool opponents and possible QF opponents. if they win all games but go out in the semi's will they stay on the same points?

by HammerofThunor Mon 05 Sep 2011, 8:29 am

If they get to a semi and get knocked out they should be up on points. Depends how France and Australia do.

They'll get about 1.0 from Argentina and Scotland, 2.0 from France and lose 1.0 from Australia (just rough in head numbers that will depend on how the other games go, also assumes that Australia top their group and get to semis and France is runner up in their group)

by Portnoy Fri 09 Sep 2011, 11:51 am

Portnoy wrote:RWC Rankings First week-end (i.e. before any country plays a second game)
All countries playing on neutral territory except nzl.
Double points for RWC*

Fixtures source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm

Friday, 9 September 2011
New Zealand v Tonga, PlA, 09:30

Saturday, 10 September 2011
Argentina v England, PlB, 09:30
Fiji v Namibia, PlD, 04:30
France v Japan, PlA, 07:00
Scotland v Romania, PlB, 02:00

Sunday, 11 September 2011
Australia v Italy, PlC, 04:30
Ireland v USA, PlC, 07:00
South Africa v Wales, PlD, 09:30

* Don't shoot the messenger

Pool A

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?
If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.000 90.55 72.48 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.000 90.55 72.48 No
If result is a draw 2.000 88.55 74.48 No
If ton win by 1-15 points 4.000 86.55 76.48 No
If ton win by more than 15 6.000 84.55 78.48 No

No change at all. zip. nada,

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Fri 09 Sep 2011, 12:31 pm

Feckless Rogue wrote:If Ireland beat Australia by more than 15 at the World Cup there'd be a 12 point swing and Ireland would overtake them, even though Ireland are 8th and Australia are 2nd. Should there rally be double ranking points at the World Cup? Seems like it skews the rankings to much.

Or you could say that second string sides playing off in uncompetitive matches just beofre the world cup skews the rankings too much

by Portnoy Fri 09 Sep 2011, 12:43 pm

Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler wrote:
Feckless Rogue wrote:If Ireland beat Australia by more than 15 at the World Cup there'd be a 12 point swing and Ireland would overtake them, even though Ireland are 8th and Australia are 2nd. Should there rally be double ranking points at the World Cup? Seems like it skews the rankings to much.

Or you could say that second string sides playing off in uncompetitive matches just beofre the world cup skews the rankings too much

I'm forever being told that I should 'get over' my dislike of the playoffs. I don't - but understand that I should (but I can't).

At least so long as the rankings provide no financial or trophy reward, it's harmless and has had a long statto analysis.

Burrrt - I think that RWC seedings should not go back four years to the last competition but be made on current IRB rankings as at the time of the draw no more than two years ahead of the start of the next RWC.

by HammerofThunor Fri 09 Sep 2011, 1:01 pm

They don;t go back four years. It's based on the current rankings three years before the cup. Apparantly that's the latest they could leave it. Not sure why.

by Portnoy Fri 09 Sep 2011, 1:11 pm

England, being the host nation, is the only team to have qualified so far. All the teams that come 3rd or above in the pool stages of the 2011 Rugby World Cup will automatically qualify.

Again from the font of truth - Wiki.

by Portnoy Sat 10 Sep 2011, 8:21 pm

First (quick) analysis indicates that the only table change is that England overtake France

Portnoy wrote:RWC Rankings First week-end (i.e. before any country plays a second game)
All countries playing on neutral territory except nzl.
Double points for RWC*

Fixtures source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm

Friday, 9 September 2011
New Zealand v Tonga, PlA, 09:30

Saturday, 10 September 2011
Argentina v England, PlB, 09:30
Fiji v Namibia, PlD, 04:30
France v Japan, PlA, 07:00
Scotland v Romania, PlB, 02:00

Sunday, 11 September 2011
Australia v Italy, PlC, 04:30
Ireland v USA, PlC, 07:00
South Africa v Wales, PlD, 09:30

Pool A

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?
If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.000 90.55 72.48 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.000 90.55 72.48 No
If result is a draw 2.000 88.55 74.48 No
If ton win by 1-15 points 4.000 86.55 76.48 No
If ton win by more than 15 6.000 84.55 78.48 No

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.000 83.78 71.95 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.000 83.78 71.95 No
If result is a draw 2.000 81.78 73.95 No
If jap win by 1-15 points 4.000 79.78 75.95 No
If jap win by more than 15 6.000 77.78 77.95 Yes

Pool B

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?
If arg win by 1-15 points 2.898 81.30 79.99 Yes
If arg win by more than 15 4.347 82.75 78.54 Yes
If result is a draw 0.898 79.30 81.99 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 1.102 77.30 83.99 No
If eng win by more than 15 1.653 76.75 84.54 No

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 78.83 65.69 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 78.83 65.69 No
If result is a draw 2.000 76.83 67.69 No
If rom win by 1-15 points 4.000 74.83 69.69 No
If rom win by more than 15 6.000 72.83 71.69 No

Pool C
Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?
If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 88.84 73.88 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 88.84 73.88 No
If result is a draw 2.000 86.84 75.88 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 4.000 84.84 77.88 No
If ita win by more than 15 6.000 82.84 79.88 No

If ire win by 1-15 points 0.000 78.50 65.00 No
If ire win by more than 15 0.000 78.50 65.00 No
If result is a draw 2.000 76.50 67.00 No
If usa win by 1-15 points 4.000 74.50 69.00 No
If usa win by more than 15 6.000 72.50 71.00 No

Pool D

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If fij win by 1-15 points 0.118 70.95 61.30 No
If fij win by more than 15 0.177 71.01 61.24 No
If result is a draw 1.882 68.95 63.30 No
If nam win by 1-15 points 3.882 66.95 65.30 No
If nam win by more than 15 5.823 65.01 67.24 Yes

If saf win by 1-15 points 1.020 86.71 79.77 No
If saf win by more than 15 1.530 87.22 79.26 No
If result is a draw 0.980 84.71 81.77 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 2.980 82.71 83.77 Yes
If wal win by more than 15 4.470 81.22 85.26 Yes

by Portnoy Tue 13 Sep 2011, 2:12 pm

RWC Rankings potentials to third weekend (incl Monday when next IRB rankings announced).

All countries playing on neutral territory except nzl.
Double points for RWC

Current standings (official)

Current Prev change Country curr pts
1 1 0 NZL NEWZEALAND 90.55
2 3 1 RSA SOUTHAFRICA 86.71
3 2 -1 AUS AUSTRALIA 84.84
4 4 0 ENG ENGLAND 83.99
5 5 0 FRA FRANCE 83.78
6 8 2 IRE IRELAND 82.5
7 6 -1 WAL WALES 80.73
8 7 -1 SCO SCOTLAND 79.12
9 9 0 ARG ARGENTINA 77.3
10 11 1 ITA ITALY 73.88
11 14 3 CAN CANADA 73.74
12 10 -2 SAM SAMOA 73.59
13 13 0 JPN JAPAN 71.95
14 15 1 FJI FIJI 71.01
15 12 -3 TGA TONGA 70.3
16 16 0 GEO GEORGIA 70
17 18 1 USA USA 66.38
18 17 -1 ROM ROMANIA 65.69
19 20 1 NAM NAMIBIA 61.24
20 21 -1 POR PORTUGAL 60.67
21 19 -2 RUS RUSSIA 60.54

Fixtures source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm

Tuesday, 20 September 2011
Italy v Russia, PlC, 08:30

Wednesday, 21 September 2011
Tonga v Japan, PlA, 08:30

Thursday, 22 September 2011
South Africa v Namibia, PlD, 09:00

Friday, 23 September 2011
Australia v USA, PlC, 09:30

Saturday, 24 September 2011
England v Romania, PlB, 07:00
New Zealand v France, PlA, 09:30

Sunday, 25 September 2011
Argentina v Scotland, PlB, 08:30
Fiji v Samoa, PlD, 03:30
Ireland v Russia, PlC, 06:00

Monday, 26 September 2011
Wales v Namibia, PlD, 07:30

Pool A

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ton win by 1-15 points 2.330 72.63 69.62 Yes
If ton win by more than 15 3.495 73.80 68.45 Yes
If result is a draw 0.330 70.63 71.62 No
If jap win by 1-15 points 1.670 68.63 73.62 No
If jap win by more than 15 2.505 67.80 74.45 No

If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.046 90.60 83.73 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.069 90.62 83.71 No
If result is a draw 1.954 88.60 85.73 No
If fra win by 1-15 points 3.954 86.60 87.73 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 5.931 84.62 89.71 Yes

Pool B

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If eng win by 1-15 points 0.000 83.99 65.69 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.000 83.99 65.69 No
If result is a draw 2.000 81.99 67.69 No
If rom win by 1-15 points 4.000 79.99 69.69 No
If rom win by more than 15 6.000 77.99 71.69 No

If arg win by 1-15 points 2.364 79.66 76.76 Yes
If arg win by more than 15 3.546 80.85 75.57 Yes
If result is a draw 0.364 77.66 78.76 No
If sco win by 1-15 points 1.636 75.66 80.76 No
If sco win by more than 15 2.454 74.85 81.57 No

Pool C

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ita win by 1-15 points 0.000 73.88 60.54 No
If ita win by more than 15 0.000 73.88 60.54 No
If result is a draw 2.000 71.88 62.54 No
If rus win by 1-15 points 4.000 69.88 64.54 No
If rus win by more than 15 6.000 67.88 66.54 No

If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 84.84 66.38 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 84.84 66.38 No
If result is a draw 2.000 82.84 68.38 No
If usa win by 1-15 points 4.000 80.84 70.38 No
If usa win by more than 15 6.000 78.84 72.38 No

Ire v Rus - dependent on unofficial software from Rus game (above)

Pool D

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If saf win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.71 61.24 No
If saf win by more than 15 0.000 86.71 61.24 No
If result is a draw 2.000 84.71 63.24 No
If nam win by 1-15 points 4.000 82.71 65.24 No
If nam win by more than 15 6.000 80.71 67.24 No

If fij win by 1-15 points 2.516 73.53 71.07 Yes
If fij win by more than 15 3.774 74.78 69.82 Yes
If result is a draw 0.516 71.53 73.07 No
If sam win by 1-15 points 1.484 69.53 75.07 No
If sam win by more than 15 2.226 68.78 75.82 No

Wal v Nam - dependent on unofficial software from Nam game (above)

by **Notch** Mon 19 Sep 2011, 1:01 pm

These rankings accurate as of today, Monday 19th September.

Last week's positions in brackets -

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 90.55 rating points
2(3) SOUTH AFRICA 86.71
3(2) AUSTRALIA 84.84
4(4) ENGLAND 83.99
5(5) FRANCE 83.78
6(8) IRELAND 82.50
7(6) WALES 80.73
8(7) SCOTLAND 79.12
9(9) ARGENTINA 77.30
10(11) ITALY 73.88
11(14) CANADA 73.74
12(10) SAMOA 73.59
13(13) JAPAN 71.95
14(15) FIJI 71.01
15(12) TONGA 70.30
16(16) GEORGIA 70.00
17(18) USA 66.38
18(17) ROMANIA 65.69
19(20) NAMIBIA 61.24
20(21) PORTUGAL 60.67
21(19) RUSSIA 60.54

Does it mean anything? Not sure. Australia, despite their status as 3N champions, have fallen to the bottom of the top three and that probably is deserved given they did not play well against Ireland. Ireland have mounted a mini-recovery after their four place slump in August. So that's reflective of the weekends most eye-catching result.

Canada are at their highest ever point in the Rankings, but I think Samoas low ranking is not reflective of where they are as a team, but more the lack of top-flight test matches they've had and a punishing schedule. We'll see where they are at the end, if they can translate ability into results in their last two games. Canada have been one of the best minnows of the tournament. If they beat Japan they'll grab that coveted automatic qualifying spot.

Whats most interesting is the chance for the sides ranked 4-7 to occupy one side of the draw. A lot to happen before then, but that will probably see a NH side making it into the top two or three by the end of the World Cup if it does happen given the weighting these matches have compare to other tests. Correct me if I'm wrong.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Mon 19 Sep 2011, 1:14 pm

Canada have picked up facial hair bonus points by the looks of it.

by iso Mon 19 Sep 2011, 1:16 pm

I have always found the irb rankings to be a pretty much spot on.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Mon 19 Sep 2011, 1:43 pm

The gap between 3rd and 8th in ranking points seems to have narrowed or am I imagining that?

by Portnoy Mon 19 Sep 2011, 1:51 pm

I did wonder if anyone had been following this thread.
Does anyone read my weekly posts on the predicted standings?

by RubyGuby Mon 19 Sep 2011, 2:36 pm

At the end of August after beating England the rankings were as follows between England and Wales

5 - ENGLAND 81.82
6 - WALES 80.79

After a 1 point defeat to SA and a win over Samoa for Wales and 2 wins for England against Argentina and Georgia the points difference is now

4(4) ENGLAND 83.99
7(6) WALES 80.73

It just doesn't seem right thumbsup

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Mon 19 Sep 2011, 2:43 pm

Portnoy wrote:I did wonder if anyone had been following this thread.
Does anyone read my weekly posts on the predicted standings?

Yes

by Portnoy Tue 20 Sep 2011, 9:00 am

RWC Rankings potentials to third weekend (incl Monday when next IRB rankings announced).

All countries playing on neutral territory except nzl.
Double points for RWC

Current standings (official)

Current Prev change Country curr pts
1 1 0 NZL NEWZEALAND 90.55
2 3 1 RSA SOUTHAFRICA 86.71
3 2 -1 AUS AUSTRALIA 84.84
4 4 0 ENG ENGLAND 83.99
5 5 0 FRA FRANCE 83.78
6 8 2 IRE IRELAND 82.5
7 6 -1 WAL WALES 80.73
8 7 -1 SCO SCOTLAND 79.12
9 9 0 ARG ARGENTINA 77.3
10 11 1 ITA ITALY 73.88
11 14 3 CAN CANADA 73.74
12 10 -2 SAM SAMOA 73.59
13 13 0 JPN JAPAN 71.95
14 15 1 FJI FIJI 71.01
15 12 -3 TGA TONGA 70.3
16 16 0 GEO GEORGIA 70
17 18 1 USA USA 66.38
18 17 -1 ROM ROMANIA 65.69
19 20 1 NAM NAMIBIA 61.24
20 21 -1 POR PORTUGAL 60.67
21 19 -2 RUS RUSSIA 60.54

Fixtures source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm

Tuesday, 20 September 2011
Italy v Russia, PlC, 08:30

Wednesday, 21 September 2011
Tonga v Japan, PlA, 08:30

Thursday, 22 September 2011
South Africa v Namibia, PlD, 09:00

Friday, 23 September 2011
Australia v USA, PlC, 09:30

Saturday, 24 September 2011
England v Romania, PlB, 07:00
New Zealand v France, PlA, 09:30

Sunday, 25 September 2011
Argentina v Scotland, PlB, 08:30
Fiji v Samoa, PlD, 03:30
Ireland v Russia, PlC, 06:00

Monday, 26 September 2011
Wales v Namibia, PlD, 07:30

Pool A

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ton win by 1-15 points 2.330 72.63 69.62 Yes
If ton win by more than 15 3.495 73.80 68.45 Yes
If result is a draw 0.330 70.63 71.62 No
If jap win by 1-15 points 1.670 68.63 73.62 No
If jap win by more than 15 2.505 67.80 74.45 No

If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.046 90.60 83.73 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.069 90.62 83.71 No
If result is a draw 1.954 88.60 85.73 No
If fra win by 1-15 points 3.954 86.60 87.73 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 5.931 84.62 89.71 Yes

Pool B

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If eng win by 1-15 points 0.000 83.99 65.69 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.000 83.99 65.69 No
If result is a draw 2.000 81.99 67.69 No
If rom win by 1-15 points 4.000 79.99 69.69 No
If rom win by more than 15 6.000 77.99 71.69 No

If arg win by 1-15 points 2.364 79.66 76.76 Yes
If arg win by more than 15 3.546 80.85 75.57 Yes
If result is a draw 0.364 77.66 78.76 No
If sco win by 1-15 points 1.636 75.66 80.76 No
If sco win by more than 15 2.454 74.85 81.57 No

Pool C

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ita win by 1-15 points 0.000 73.88 60.54 No
If ita win by more than 15 0.000 73.88 60.54 No
If result is a draw 2.000 71.88 62.54 No
If rus win by 1-15 points 4.000 69.88 64.54 No
If rus win by more than 15 6.000 67.88 66.54 No

If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 84.84 66.38 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 84.84 66.38 No
If result is a draw 2.000 82.84 68.38 No
If usa win by 1-15 points 4.000 80.84 70.38 No
If usa win by more than 15 6.000 78.84 72.38 No

Ire v Rus - based on unofficial software from Rus game (above)
If ire win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.50 60.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 0.000 82.50 60.54 No
If result is a draw 2.000 80.50 62.54 No
If rus win by 1-15 points 4.000 78.50 64.54 No
If rus win by more than 15 6.000 76.50 66.54 No

Pool D

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If saf win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.71 61.24 No
If saf win by more than 15 0.000 86.71 61.24 No
If result is a draw 2.000 84.71 63.24 No
If nam win by 1-15 points 4.000 82.71 65.24 No
If nam win by more than 15 6.000 80.71 67.24 No

If fij win by 1-15 points 2.516 73.53 71.07 Yes
If fij win by more than 15 3.774 74.78 69.82 Yes
If result is a draw 0.516 71.53 73.07 No
If sam win by 1-15 points 1.484 69.53 75.07 No
If sam win by more than 15 2.226 68.78 75.82 No

Wal v Nam - based on unofficial software from Nam game (above)
If wal win by 1-15 points 0.000 80.73 61.24 No
If wal win by more than 15 0.000 80.73 61.24 No
If result is a draw 2.000 78.73 63.24 No
If nam win by 1-15 points 4.000 76.73 65.24 No
If nam win by more than 15 6.000 74.73 67.24 No

by **Biltong** Tue 20 Sep 2011, 11:57 am

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:
Portnoy wrote:I did wonder if anyone had been following this thread.
Does anyone read my weekly posts on the predicted standings?
Yes

Thanks Portnoy.If you look at the tab next to the number of posts, it SHOWS NUMBER OF VIEWS.

by Portnoy Tue 20 Sep 2011, 12:13 pm

One interesting minor observation. For the first time Portugal have imposed themselves into the top twenty above Russia.

The fact that previously all the top twenty teams are in the RWC proves

a. The rankings are perfect.

or

b. RWC double points are like faking an orgasm.

p.s. Thanks As and Biltong. (you are my public Erm

)

by **Biltong** Tue 20 Sep 2011, 12:19 pm

I don't think the rankings are perfect, they should only be seen as a guideline.

The fact is if you say to me australia is ranked below us, it doesn't mean they are worse than we are. since the last world cup they have won 6 out of 10 tests against us, so in my opinion they currently have a better chance of beating us than we have of beating them.

by Portnoy Tue 20 Sep 2011, 12:36 pm

Biltong. Please read OP.

The worst thing would be to make the rankings in any way significant whether by gongs (like cricket) or cash or stuff.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Sep 2011, 4:32 am

I've read somewhere that if France beat NZ tonight they jump to no. 1 in the rankings. I know points are influenced by beating those above you and I don't really pay much attention to them but NZ are on 90.55 and France 5th at 83.78.

Is this correct? Can you explain briefly how that works and is that really a fair reflection of the system? Win one game from 5th and go to the top of the class?

by Portnoy Sat 24 Sep 2011, 7:48 am

"Pool A

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.046 90.60 83.73 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.069 90.62 83.71 No
If result is a draw 1.954 88.60 85.73 No
If fra win by 1-15 points 3.954 86.60 87.73 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 5.931 84.62 89.71 Yes

Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

Because RWC points exchange count double and NZ are unique in that they don't play this time around on neutral territory.

by Taylorman Sat 24 Sep 2011, 9:23 pm

Then its a bit flawed in that respect. One team on 5 shouldnt be able to go to one on the back of one win, purely because of the combination of format and geography.

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Sat 24 Sep 2011, 9:49 pm

I think the double points thing came in to ensure that the cup winning team was almost certainly on top of the rankings, but that does leave in other flaws.

by AsLongAsBut100ofUs Sun 25 Sep 2011, 11:46 am

Normal service resumed, Scotland drop to 9th and Argentine jump into 8th

by Taylorman Mon 26 Sep 2011, 12:30 am

Kiwireddevil wrote:I think the double points thing came in to ensure that the cup winning team was almost certainly on top of the rankings, but that does leave in other flaws.

Yes I've no worries them jumping to no. 1 if they had won- I don't care much for the rankings anyway, but few teams get to be in that position- have the home team-at no. 1- in their pool at World cup time with a chance of winning. That combination doesn't come along very often- in fact its probably a first- akin to hitting a jackpot or lining up the stars...

by Portnoy Mon 26 Sep 2011, 7:56 pm

RWC Rankings potentials to fourth weekend.

All countries playing on neutral territory except nzl.
Double points for RWC

Current standings (official)

Current Prev change Country curr pts
1 1 0 NEW ZEALAND 90.62
2 2 0 SOUTH AFRICA 86.71
3 3 0 AUSTRALIA 84.84
4 4 0 ENGLAND 83.99
5 5 0 FRANCE 83.72
6 6 0 IRELAND 82.5
7 7 0 WALES 80.73
8 9 1 ARGENTINA 79.66
9 8 -1 SCOTLAND 76.76
10 12 2 SAMOA 75.81
11 10 -1 ITALY 73.88
12 11 -1 CANADA 73.74
13 15 2 TONGA 72.63
14 16 2 GEORGIA 70
15 13 -2 JAPAN 69.62
16 14 -2 FIJI 68.78
17 17 0 USA 66.38
18 18 0 ROMANIA 65.69
19 19 0 NAMIBIA 61.24
20 20 0 PORTUGAL 60.67
21 21 0 RUSSIA 60.54

Fixtures source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm

Tuesday, 27 September 2011
Canada v Japan, PlA, 05:00
Italy v USA, PlC, 07:30

Wednesday, 28 September 2011
Georgia v Romania, PlB, 07:30

Friday, 30 September 2011
South Africa v Samoa, PlD, 08:30

Saturday, 1 October 2011
Australia v Russia, PlC, 03:30
England v Scotland, PlB, 08:30
France v Tonga, PlA, 06:00

Sunday, 2 October 2011
Argentina v Georgia, PlB, 01:00
Ireland v Italy, PlC, 08:30
New Zealand v Canada, PlA, 03:30
Wales v Fiji, PlD, 06:00

Pool A

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If can win by 1-15 points 1.176 74.92 68.44 No
If can win by more than 15 1.764 75.50 67.86 No
If result is a draw 0.824 72.92 70.44 No
If jap win by 1-15 points 2.824 70.92 72.44 Yes
If jap win by more than 15 4.236 69.50 73.86 Yes

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.000 83.72 72.63 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.000 83.72 72.63 No
If result is a draw 2.000 81.72 74.63 No
If ton win by 1-15 points 4.000 79.72 76.63 No
If ton win by more than 15 6.000 77.72 78.63 Yes

NZL v Can - based on unofficial software from Can game (above)
If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.000 90.62 72.92 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.000 90.62 72.92 No
If result is a draw 2.000 88.62 74.92 No
If can win by 1-15 points 4.000 86.62 76.92 No
If can win by more than 15 6.000 84.62 78.92 No

Pool B

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If geo win by 1-15 points 1.138 71.14 64.55 No
If geo win by more than 15 1.707 71.71 63.98 No
If result is a draw 0.862 69.14 66.55 No
If rom win by 1-15 points 2.862 67.14 68.55 Yes
If rom win by more than 15 4.293 65.71 69.98 Yes

If eng win by 1-15 points 0.554 84.54 76.21 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.831 84.82 75.93 No
If result is a draw 1.446 82.54 78.21 No
If sco win by 1-15 points 3.446 80.54 80.21 No
If sco win by more than 15 5.169 78.82 81.93 Yes

Arg v Geo - based on unofficial software from Geo game (above)
If arg win by 1-15 points 0.410 80.07 71.30 No
If arg win by more than 15 0.615 80.27 71.09 No
If result is a draw 1.590 78.07 73.30 No
If geo win by 1-15 points 3.590 76.07 75.30 No
If geo win by more than 15 5.385 74.27 77.09 Yes

Pool C

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ita win by 1-15 points 0.500 74.38 65.88 No
If ita win by more than 15 0.750 74.63 65.63 No
If result is a draw 1.500 72.38 67.88 No
If usa win by 1-15 points 3.500 70.38 69.88 No
If usa win by more than 15 5.250 68.63 71.63 Yes

If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 84.84 60.54 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 84.84 60.54 No
If result is a draw 2.000 82.84 62.54 No
If rus win by 1-15 points 4.000 80.84 64.54 No
If rus win by more than 15 6.000 78.84 66.54 No

Ire v Ita - based on unofficial software from Ita game (above)
If ire win by 1-15 points 0.426 82.93 74.20 No
If ire win by more than 15 0.639 83.14 73.99 No
If result is a draw 1.574 80.93 76.20 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 3.574 78.93 78.20 No
If ita win by more than 15 5.361 77.14 79.99 Yes

Pool D

Possible Outcome /Rating Point /Exchange New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If saf win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.71 75.81 No
If saf win by more than 15 0.000 86.71 75.81 No
If result is a draw 2.000 84.71 77.81 No
If sam win by 1-15 points 4.000 82.71 79.81 No
If sam win by more than 15 6.000 80.71 81.81 Yes

If wal win by 1-15 points 0.000 80.73 68.78 No
If wal win by more than 15 0.000 80.73 68.78 No
If result is a draw 2.000 78.73 70.78 No
If fij win by 1-15 points 4.000 76.73 72.78 No
If fij win by more than 15 6.000 74.73 74.78 Yes

by HammerofThunor Mon 26 Sep 2011, 8:00 pm

Will we see all 8 of the current top 8 in the last eight?

by Portnoy Mon 26 Sep 2011, 8:04 pm

HammerofThunor wrote:Will we see all 8 of the current top 8 in the last eight?

Next week I'll do analysis of Rankings before and after these group games started.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Tue 27 Sep 2011, 10:47 am

HammerofThunor wrote:Will we see all 8 of the current top 8 in the last eight?

Probably, but a scotland win over england would keep it as the current top 8 ( and pre torunament top 8 i think?) in the quarters....unless they win big and England crash out.
So much for narrowing the gap eh, the one side that could realisticaly crash the party is the 9th ranked one.

by Guest Sun 02 Oct 2011, 11:43 am

So Wales got no points for beating Samoa Namibia or Fiji?
How can people say the rankings are fair?

by Guest Sun 02 Oct 2011, 11:46 am

viewtothegym wrote:So Wales got no points for beating Samoa Namibia or Fiji?
How can people say the rankings are fair?

You don't get points for beating sides way below you in rankings points. England didn't get any for beating Romania. If Wales can start beating sides above them then they will move up the rankings. Until then they won't. It's quite straightforward.

by Guest Sun 02 Oct 2011, 11:56 am

We beat England thou so don't forget it.

by Guest Sun 02 Oct 2011, 12:02 pm

viewtothegym wrote:We beat England thou so don't forget it.

For which you will have gained ranking points. Are you getting it yet?

by poissonrouge Sun 02 Oct 2011, 1:13 pm

Looks like the top 8 in the rankings before the weekend are the top 8 in the WC QF- although France according to my calcs go from 5 to 8 as a result of theie loss.
Seems to suggest the rankings aren't far off?

by Portnoy Sun 02 Oct 2011, 1:36 pm

poissonrouge wrote:Looks like the top 8 in the rankings before the weekend are the top 8 in the WC QF- although France according to my calcs go from 5 to 8 as a result of theie loss.
Seems to suggest the rankings aren't far off?

I've yet to do analysis yet MrP. I'll get it done later.

Tomorrow once the official rankings are announced I'll compare the rankings before and after the RWC.

I'm not going to enter into the debate as to whether the system is right or wrong with doubling up the points exchange in RWC matches. I'm just going to report it as it is.

There maybe a chicken/egg debate if your prediction is true about the top eight and quarter-finals participants.

by Portnoy Sun 02 Oct 2011, 2:09 pm

New unofficial rankings - all change from positions 5-16

Pos/last pos/country/last official/current unofficial
1 1 0 NZL NEW ZEALAND 90.55 90.62
2 2 0 RSA SOUTH AFRICA 86.71 86.71
3 3 0 AUS AUSTRALIA 84.84 84.84
4 4 0 ENG ENGLAND 83.99 84.54
5 6 1 IRE IRELAND 82.5 83.14
6 7 1 WAL WALES 80.73 80.73
7 9 2 ARG ARGENTINA 77.3 80.27
8 5 -3 FRA FRANCE 83.78 79.72
9 15 6 TGA TONGA 70.3 76.63
10 8 -2 SCO SCOTLAND 79.12 76.21
11 12 1 SAM SAMOA 73.59 75.81
12 10 -2 ITA ITALY 73.88 73.99
13 11 -2 CAN CANADA 73.74 72.92
14 16 2 GEO GEORGIA 70 71.09
15 13 -2 JPN JAPAN 71.95 70.44
16 14 -2 FJI FIJI 71.01 68.78
17 17 0 USA USA 66.38 65.63
18 18 0 ROM ROMANIA 65.69 63.98
19 19 0 NAM NAMIBIA 61.24 61.24
20 20 0 POR PORTUGAL 60.67 60.67
21 21 0 RUS RUSSIA 61.24 60.54

by Guest Sun 02 Oct 2011, 3:34 pm

Argentina and Scotland a ranked well below England but England scrapped past them both with narrow victories and got hansom points rewarded to them! Erm

by Portnoy Sun 02 Oct 2011, 3:48 pm

viewtothegym wrote: Argentina and Scotland a ranked well below England but England scrapped past them both with narrow victories and got hansom points rewarded to them!

Interesting observation - but don't shoot the messenger.

Tonga leapt into the top ten. Wales have gone up and have been rewarded by winning. France have plummeted. Scotland have slipped.

I only report what I can. And that depends on the accuracy of the unofficial software and my own human error in transcribing the data.

by Guest Sun 02 Oct 2011, 3:58 pm

viewtothegym wrote: Argentina and Scotland a ranked well below England but England scrapped past them both with narrow victories and got hansom points rewarded to them!

The rankings points differences between the sides before the games were:

England: 83.99 and Scotland 79.12 (a difference of 4.87)

Wales 80.73 and Fiji 71.01 (a difference of 9.72)

The relative differences in rankings points being pretty much double.

I don't see why this is so difficult to understand why rankings points are awarded or not. You could play Finland every week and beat them 200-0 and not get any rise in points. Nor should you.

by robbo277 Sun 02 Oct 2011, 7:49 pm

viewtothegym wrote: Argentina and Scotland a ranked well below England but England scrapped past them both with narrow victories and got hansom points rewarded to them!

Handsomely rewarded? Not quite.

Before the World Cup, England were on 82.89 points. Now we're on 84.54, a jump of 1.65. Considering we're on double points for a World Cup AND England won all 4 games, that's nothing.

The rankings aren't weighted towards England, they are weighted towards teams who win, teams who win away and teams who win against teams ranked above them. Considering England have won 10 out of 12 matches this year, they should expect to be up the rankings. Although Wales have a decent record this year, they're recovering from a slump in 2010 (where they didn't win many matches) and will take time to rise up the rankings. Beating Samoa would have won Wales a few points, but beating low-ranked Fiji and Namibia isn't worth anything (in IRB World Rankings terms) as England beating Georgia and Romania isn't.

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