IRB World Rankings ... Part 1

by Portnoy Mon Aug 08, 2011 4:42 pm

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB
http://www.irb.com/rankings/full.html

4Ns Round 1
http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html

September 2012

Sat 15 Rugby Championship / Freedom Cup
New Zealand v South Africa, Dunedin
19:35 local, 07:35 GMT, 08:35 BST

nzl (on 92.43 points) at home -vs- rsa (on 84.20 points)

If nzl win by 1-15 points 0.000 92.43 84.20 No
If nzl win by more than 15 0.000 92.43 84.20 No
If result is a draw 1.000 91.43 85.20 No
If rsa win by 1-15 points 2.000 90.43 86.20 No
If rsa win by more than 15 3.000 89.43 87.20 No

Sat 15 Rugby Championship
Australia v Argentina, Gold Coast
20:05 local, 10:05 GMT, 11:05 BST

aus (on 86.62 points) at home -vs- arg (on 79.34 points)

If aus win by 1-15 points 0.000 86.62 79.34 No
If aus win by more than 15 0.000 86.62 79.34 No
If result is a draw 1.000 85.62 80.34 No
If arg win by 1-15 points 2.000 84.62 81.34 No
If arg win by more than 15 3.000 83.62 82.34 No

[ed]

Original post:

Pretty much World rankings provide both an 'official' balance sheet and P/L account of international bragging rights.

Sources:
IRB Rankings : http://www.irb.com/rankings/index.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

by **Biltong** Tue Jan 24, 2012 1:25 pm

Why did they not call it 4nations.

In my opinion the need for being creative in choosing a name got in the way of logic.

Their reasoning was that The rugby Championship goes better with a sponsor name than the 4nations.

Go figure Doh

by Portnoy Tue Jan 24, 2012 7:38 pm

Portnoy wrote:As my step ladder collapsed yesterday (me culpa) and I landed on my coccyx I find myself able to speculate on the rankings for the 6Ns round 1.

So far as I can find there are no T2 nations international matches to interfere with the rankings, it's worth a punt. (but obviously I'll recalculate at the time).

6Ns round 1

Saturday, 4 FebruaryFrance v Italy, 14:30
Scotland v England, 17:00

Sunday, 5 February 2012Ireland v Wales, 15:00

Current standings

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.99
3(3) FRANCE 84.70
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.34
5(5) ENGLAND 81.58
6(6) IRELAND 80.65
7(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(8) WALES 79.61
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(10) SCOTLAND 76.20
11(11) SAMOA 75.81
12(12) ITALY 73.99
13(13) CANADA 72.92
14(14) GEORGIA 71.09
15(15) JAPAN 70.45
16(16) FIJI 68.78
17(17) USA 65.63
18(18) ROMANIA 63.98
19(19) NAMIBIA 61.24
20(20) RUSSIA 60.54
21(21) URUGUAY 60.47

Possible outcomes:

fra (on 84.70 points) at home -vs- ita (on 73.99 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.000 84.70 73.99 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.000 84.70 73.99 No
If result is a draw 1.000 83.70 74.99 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 82.70 75.99 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 81.70 76.99 No

sco (on 76.20 points) at home -vs- eng (on 81.58 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If sco win by 1-15 points 1.238 77.44 80.34 No
If sco win by more than 15 1.857 78.06 79.72 No
If result is a draw 0.238 76.44 81.34 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.762 75.44 82.34 No
If eng win by more than 15 1.143 75.06 82.72 No

ire (on 80.65 points) at home -vs- wal (on 79.61 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ire win by 1-15 points 0.596 81.25 79.01 No
If ire win by more than 15 0.894 81.54 78.72 No
If result is a draw 0.404 80.25 80.01 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.404 79.25 81.01 Yes
If wal win by more than 15 2.106 78.54 81.72 Yes

P1ss-poor rewards compared with the RWC finals changes!

This is beginning to support my emergent view that multinational tournaments (including RWC qualifiers) should be weighted more heavily than bilateral one-off/tour series.

Clearing the decks ready for the 6Ns, I have checked that the top 21 team ranking points remain unchanged.

So I'm not intending to repeat the fairly labourious process of doing a full recalculation.

The above software predictions therefore stand.

by RubyGuby Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:08 pm

The credibility of the rankings can be judged as follows:

The last time Wales played Argentina, Ireland, England, and Scotland they beat them all by a minimum of 10 points - They lost to France by 1 point with 14 men and to SA by 1 point yet they lie 8th in the rankings. As has been said before, these rankings are meaningful when your team is at the top;. When they are not they just seem non-sensical as outlined above. thumbsup

by Portnoy Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:21 pm

Ruby,

Wales have the perfect opportunity to right any perceived wrongs in the next 6Ns campaign.

Number crunching is just a task in processing the scoreboard result.

Ifs and buts and maybes don't affect the numbers.

And there are no points for style - in which case I'd be forced to agree with you.

Anyhow, this season's Rankings will affect the 2015 RWC finals draw.

by **Biltong** Tue Jan 24, 2012 8:25 pm

RubyGuby wrote:The credibility of the rankings can be judged as follows:

The last time Wales played Argentina, Ireland, England, and Scotland they beat them all by a minimum of 10 points - They lost to France by 1 point with 14 men and to SA by 1 point yet they lie 8th in the rankings. As has been said before, these rankings are meaningful when your team is at the top;. When they are not they just seem non-sensical as outlined above.

Rubyguby, I agree with your thinking here. However establishing whether one team is better than another needs to be looked at past just one test mate.

When I compare teams for the purpose of who is better than who I look at the trend over the last 10 tests or so.

It could be that one team has won their last test against an opponent but lost the previous nine. On basis of one test I won't rate the team better.

by Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler Tue Jan 24, 2012 9:15 pm

RubyGuby wrote:The credibility of the rankings can be judged as follows:

The last time Wales played Argentina, Ireland, England, and Scotland they beat them all by a minimum of 10 points - They lost to France by 1 point with 14 men and to SA by 1 point yet they lie 8th in the rankings. As has been said before, these rankings are meaningful when your team is at the top;. When they are not they just seem non-sensical as outlined above.

I believe if you looked at the ratings of each team going into each game Wales had the rankings predicted that Wales would lose to SA, that they would beat Samoa, that they would lose to Ireland, that they would beat France, and that they would lose to Aus.

For the most part they were correct, only one game they were underated against a side that had just turned over Australia. The game they lost to France they shouldnt have done. The ratings gap in these games wouldve been small, suggesting thatthe predcited reulst was by no means a forgone conclussion. The predcitions also wouldve pretty closely matched most neutral pundits picks.

The argument that a Wales side that still keeps losing even when at a high point and playing near its best shoudl be ranked high places too much emphasis on temporary form. Its been shown time anad gagain that 6 nations sides tend to go through cycles of beating each other, but over a period of time theres 4 sides that have a pretty even chance of beating each other in a game of paer rock scissors. Thats reflected in the rankings and ratings gap.

The system exists to give an objective measure to a subjective view. And as Portnoy keeps pointing out right now they genuinly matter.

by emack2 Wed Jan 25, 2012 7:12 am

There has to be some measure to go by IRB is roughly accurate,France for example are[just]THE most successful NH side.
They have 16 wins versus Australia,12 versus NZ,11 plus 6 draws versus SA .But there record versus Wales is equal,inferior versus England,Ireland and Scotland s records versus them are not that bad.
You would expect all things being equal they would 4th or 5th most of the time.whether it is so we don`t know.

by Feckless Rogue Wed Jan 25, 2012 8:04 am

Are people forgetting that every time the Autumn internationals come around the three southern hemisphere nations tend swan into Europe, beat us all on our home grounds and scamper off with all our precious ranking points, which they then share among each other in the next Trinations. As long as that continues we'll never catch them based solely on winning 6 nations matches.

That's the general trend. Ireland, France and England tend to be better at nicking the odd win against these superior sides than Wales are. And when they do they get the large rating boost they deserve.

By the way the name of the new sh competition seems to be universally disliked. What's wrong with it?

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:01 pm

What's wrong with it?

Well we have associated the SH competition with 3 nations, we would automatically associate Argentina joining with it becoming the 4 nations.

That is the problem with SH sporting bodies, they hold no value for creating any sense of tradition.

Imagine the 4/5/6 nations having evolved into The european Championship.

Where is the association then?

by kiakahaaotearoa Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:08 pm

The Rugby Championship is only better than the championship with the oval ball and lots of travel. Like Biltong says it has no continuity.

And when there is continuity like in the Super championship, they find other ways to make the tournament less appealing. Like the conference system instead of playing every team making it favour certain teams.

The problem with the South is that we´re too busy chasing the dollar or rand instead of focusing on the rugby. Night games in wintry NZ are rubbish but the television rights dictate when the matches are played. Imagine all the 6N matches being played at night.

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 1:13 pm

Yeah, Kia is right, the almighty dollar is the culprit. It ruins all traditions we hold dear in sport.

by **Pal Joey** Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:28 pm

Try telling that to Bryce mate... I'm sure he'd have an 'issue' with that statement! Erm

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:44 pm

I am sure he doesn't give a hoot about tradition, unless of course it is a family tradition. Laugh

Get it?

Father

son

.......

Ah, forget it. Doh

by **Pal Joey** Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:47 pm

Is he still banned from setting foot in your fair land? Laugh

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 2:52 pm

Not banned, just afraid of the big bad south african. Erm

On a serious note if I may, by not coming here he isnt facing the problem head on.

You see, ... head on. chin

Ah, forget it.

by **Pal Joey** Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:19 pm

Well if he's had threats to his life - I wouldn't blame him. That's just not on.

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:28 pm

I don't think any of those threats were to be taken that serious in all honesty.

It was varying degrees of a bunch of people angry at what transpired. You have seen many times in the past how people vent their anger with threats that doesn't mean much more than blowing off steam.

If he was to come to South africa the most he will endure is some name calling and verbal abuse.

but hey, in my opinion he is making too much of this which in all likelyhood is just a way to hide from facing the reality of what South Africans feel he was guilty of.

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:30 pm

biltongbek wrote:I don't think any of those threats were to be taken that serious in all honesty.

It was varying degrees of a bunch of people angry at what transpired. You have seen many times in the past how people vent their anger with threats that doesn't mean much more than blowing off steam.

If he was to come to South africa the most he will endure is some name calling and verbal abuse.

but hey, in my opinion he is making too much of this which in all likelyhood is just a way to hide from facing the reality of what South Africans feel he was guilty of.

Indeed. Wayne Barnes has managed to referee quite a few matches unharmed in NZ since 2007. And he was far less competent than Lawrence.

Now David McHugh has cause for complaint Wink

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:36 pm

Yeah, that was an unfortunate incident. It does tend to create a perception that South Africans are uncouth, uncultured and of the same mould as some of our Rugby thugs.

Sad.

by **Biltong** Wed Jan 25, 2012 5:39 pm

But then this is Africa.

Here you don't bend over when you drop the soap. It is deemed as an invitation and you get clobbered for that.

You don't run away when a lion is chasing you, you turn around and slap the toffee out of him.

We are afraid of Spiders and snakes though.

Oh, and of course our wives. They are a tough bunch.

by LuvSports! Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:15 am

biltongbek - where abouts in SA are you from? Im half SA most my fam are in cape town wanna go back so bad but too expensive, almost 8 years since i went 2 da best place in da world Sad

by **Biltong** Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:17 am

LuvSports! wrote:biltongbek - where abouts in SA are you from? Im half SA most my fam are in cape town wanna go back so bad but too expensive, almost 8 years since i went 2 da best place in da world

JHB mate.

But you lot earn in strong currency, to pop over here is a breeze.

by LuvSports! Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:47 am

went in easter 04 when i was just 12 and the rand then i think was 9 to the pound. hopefully ill go back soon but da rents have other ideas :P a nice holiday in the lake district or cornwall!

by robbo277 Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:50 am

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.99
3(3) FRANCE 84.70
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.34
5(5) ENGLAND 82.34
6(8) WALES 81.01
7(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(6) IRELAND 79.25
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(11) SAMOA 75.81
11(10) SCOTLAND 75.44
12(12) ITALY 73.99
13(13) CANADA 72.92
14(14) GEORGIA 71.09
15(15) JAPAN 70.45
16(16) FIJI 68.78
17(17) USA 65.63
18(18) ROMANIA 63.98
19(19) NAMIBIA 61.24
20(20) RUSSIA 60.54
21(21) URUGUAY 60.47

by robbo277 Mon Feb 06, 2012 1:51 am

Wales and Ireland swap places, Scotland drop out the top 10.

by maestegmafia Tue Feb 07, 2012 12:39 am

Wales place wont alter through wins much until we play England or France I guess.

by Mad for Chelsea Tue Feb 07, 2012 1:13 am

If as expected France, England and Wales all win this week-end, then I'm guessing not much change in the rankings.

by robbo277 Tue Feb 07, 2012 2:08 am

I'll let Portnoy formally do the permutations, but having a quick look:

You've got to add 3 to the home side scores, then calculate the gap.

France/Ireland rating gap is over 8.
Wales/Scotland rating gap is about 8.5
England/Italy rating gap is between 5-5.5.

Considering if the rating gap is 10 or more you can't gain any points, France and Wales won't be able to pick up many points this week. England could pick up a decent total, especially if we win big, but not enough to catch South Africa.

If France, Wales and England all win this weekend, we probably won't see any changes, however if one of them (particularly France or Wales) lose, then we could see a couple of positions change.

by wales606 Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:17 am

Can England drop below Wales if they lose to Italy?

by Morgannwg Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:20 am

Italy are outside the top 10, so I would imagine they'd at least drop a place. A win would do more for Italy's position. Also baring in mind they are outside the top 10 I don't see what a big win against them would do for England as Robbo puts it.

by robbo277 Tue Feb 07, 2012 6:30 am

A "big" win (defined by the IRB as a win by more than 15 points), gives a team a 1.5 multiplier on any rankings exchange. Couple this with Italy's home advantage and England can get about 0.7 of a point from Italy (compared to a maximum for Wales or France of around 0.3). Not huge, but I think it would be enough to guarantee us at least 5th and leave us with a chance of over-taking France if they were to lose to Ireland.

An Italian win would indeed see England lose more points than they would gain by winning, and any Italian win would see England drop below Wales' current points total, in which case any Wales win would see them into 5th.

by Woodstock Tue Feb 07, 2012 3:34 pm

.......at the end of the 6N Wales will be ahead of England which will be a jolly good wheeze after some english WUMs here.

by Pete C (Kiwireddevil) Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:50 pm

On Portnoy's behalf
6Ns round 2:

Saturday, 11 February 2012
... Italy v England, 16:00
France v Ireland, 20:00

Sunday, 12 February 2012
Wales v Scotland, 15:00

Current standings:

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.99
3(3) FRANCE 84.70
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.34
5(5) ENGLAND 82.34
6(8) WALES 81.01
7(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(6) IRELAND 79.25
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(11) SAMOA 75.81
11(10) SCOTLAND 75.44
12(12) ITALY 73.99
13(13) CANADA 72.92

Possible outcomes:

ita (on 73.99 points) at home -vs- eng (on 82.34 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ita win by 1-15 points 1.535 75.52 80.81 No
If ita win by more than 15 2.303 76.29 80.04 No
If result is a draw 0.535 74.52 81.81 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.465 73.52 82.81 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.697 73.29 83.04 No

fra (on 84.70 points) at home -vs- ire (on 79.25 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.155 84.86 79.09 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.232 84.93 79.02 No
If result is a draw 0.845 83.86 80.09 No
If ire win by 1-15 points 1.845 82.86 81.09 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.768 81.93 82.02 Yes

wal (on 81.01 points) at home -vs- sco (on 75.44 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If wal win by 1-15 points 0.143 81.15 75.30 No
If wal win by more than 15 0.214 81.22 75.23 No
If result is a draw 0.857 80.15 76.30 No
If sco win by 1-15 points 1.857 79.15 77.30 No
If sco win by more than 15 2.786 78.22 78.23 Yes

by Portnoy Mon Feb 13, 2012 4:26 pm

6Ns round 1

Saturday, 4 February
France v Italy, 14:30
Scotland v England, 17:00

Sunday, 5 February 2012
Ireland v Wales, 15:00

Current standings

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.99
3(3) FRANCE 84.70
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.34
5(5) ENGLAND 81.58
6(6) IRELAND 80.65
7(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(8) WALES 79.61
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(10) SCOTLAND 76.20
11(11) SAMOA 75.81
12(12) ITALY 73.99
13(13) CANADA 72.92
14(14) GEORGIA 71.09
15(15) JAPAN 70.45
16(16) FIJI 68.78
17(17) USA 65.63
18(18) ROMANIA 63.98
19(19) NAMIBIA 61.24
20(20) RUSSIA 60.54
21(21) URUGUAY 60.47

Possible outcomes:

fra (on 84.70 points) at home -vs- ita (on 73.99 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.000 84.70 73.99 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.000 84.70 73.99 No
If result is a draw 1.000 83.70 74.99 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 82.70 75.99 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 81.70 76.99 No

sco (on 76.20 points) at home -vs- eng (on 81.58 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If sco win by 1-15 points 1.238 77.44 80.34 No
If sco win by more than 15 1.857 78.06 79.72 No
If result is a draw 0.238 76.44 81.34 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.762 75.44 82.34 No
If eng win by more than 15 1.143 75.06 82.72 No

ire (on 80.65 points) at home -vs- wal (on 79.61 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ire win by 1-15 points 0.596 81.25 79.01 No
If ire win by more than 15 0.894 81.54 78.72 No
If result is a draw 0.404 80.25 80.01 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.404 79.25 81.01 Yes
If wal win by more than 15 2.106 78.54 81.72 Yes

by Luckless Pedestrian Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:09 pm

Woodstock wrote:.......at the end of the 6N Wales will be ahead of England which will be a jolly good wheeze after some english WUMs here.

Two rounds into the tournament and both England and Wales are played two, won two. We're not even halfway through the Six Nations yet and you don't know any better than anyone else how the rest of the matches will go.

by SecretFly Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:26 pm

Hmmmm....seems the old rating DO matter, when you think you might be ready to do some fast rising in them!

So much for the idea that nobody rates the ratings, that they're meaningless.... and more to the point, that nobody bothers to look at them Wink

by Knackeredknees Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:07 pm

Woodstock wrote:.......at the end of the 6N Wales will be ahead of England which will be a jolly good wheeze after some english WUMs here.

Anything usefull to put on the board or just digs at the English?

by Eclipse Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:23 pm

I've said many times that I'm not a fan of the rankings but regardless of my opinion they are important when it comes to World Cup seedings. This year is a good year to be on the up in the rankings. Get in the top 4 and avoid the Southern Hemisphere sides in the group games in 2015. That has to be the target for England, Wales, Ireland and France.

by mystiroakey Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:30 pm

"Get in the top 4 and avoid the Southern Hemisphere sides in the group
games in 2015. That has to be the target for England, Wales, Ireland and
France."

ok if they/we all reach our target then we will all face SH teams

by SecretFly Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:33 pm

Eclipse wrote:I've said many times that I'm not a fan of the rankings but regardless of my opinion they are important when it comes to World Cup seedings. This year is a good year to be on the up in the rankings. Get in the top 4 and avoid the Southern Hemisphere sides in the group games in 2015.

Yes, but how do you get there (the top 4) if the rankings don't promote 'truth'?
People who don't like the rankings say they don't believe the rankings put the best sides in the correct order...and yet, you say above that in order to get a good placings on the board, so that you avoid difficult sides in the group stages of the next world cup, you have to fight to rise up those rankings.
I'd say how you fight to rise, and whether or not you are successful at rising, proves that the rankings award effort and results. If you get into a ranking that helps ease the WC journey then you'll have proven your right to be in the rank you reached. If it's an acurate reflection of merit in the lead in to a WC seedings period, then it is always a reflection of true merit.

by SecretFly Mon Feb 13, 2012 11:34 pm

mystiroakey wrote:"Get in the top 4 and avoid the Southern Hemisphere sides in the group
games in 2015. That has to be the target for England, Wales, Ireland and
France."

ok if they/we all reach our target then we will all face SH teams

wise words. Wink

by Portnoy Tue Feb 14, 2012 12:18 am

6Ns round 2:

Saturday, 11 February 2012
... Italy v England, 16:00
France v Ireland, 20:00

Sunday, 12 February 2012
Wales v Scotland, 15:00

Current standings:

1(1) NEW ZEALAND 91.43
2(2) AUSTRALIA 87.99
3(3) FRANCE 84.70
4(4) SOUTH AFRICA 84.34
5(5) ENGLAND 82.34
6(8) WALES 81.01
7(7) ARGENTINA 80.28
8(6) IRELAND 79.25
9(9) TONGA 76.63
10(11) SAMOA 75.81
11(10) SCOTLAND 75.44
12(12) ITALY 73.99
13(13) CANADA 72.92

Possible outcomes:

ita (on 73.99 points) at home -vs- eng (on 82.34 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If ita win by 1-15 points 1.535 75.52 80.81 No
If ita win by more than 15 2.303 76.29 80.04 No
If result is a draw 0.535 74.52 81.81 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.465 73.52 82.81 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.697 73.29 83.04 No

fra (on 84.70 points) at home -vs- ire (on 79.25 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.155 84.86 79.09 No
If fra win by more than 15 0.232 84.93 79.02 No
If result is a draw 0.845 83.86 80.09 No
If ire win by 1-15 points 1.845 82.86 81.09 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.768 81.93 82.02 Yes

Match posponed

wal (on 81.01 points) at home -vs- sco (on 75.44 points)
Poss Outcome /Rating Point Exchange /New 'home' Rating /New 'away' Rating / Will 'home overtake 'away'?

If wal win by 1-15 points 0.143 81.15 75.30 No
If wal win by more than 15 0.214 81.22 75.23 No
If result is a draw 0.857 80.15 76.30 No
If sco win by 1-15 points 1.857 79.15 77.30 No
If sco win by more than 15 2.786 78.22 78.23 Yes.

by robbo277 Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:36 am

For fans of England/Wales slanging matches, the winner of the England/Wales game will be ranked higher than the other. Although Wales will gain points for a draw, England would still remain above them should the match finish level. Neither team can catch South Africa, but I think there's a chance that France could be caught by either team if France lose at Murrayfield.

by Guest Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:50 am

To be fair robbo all that really matters to the real fans is that Wales play well and at full potential, and England raise their game and match Wales to make one hell of a contest and a great advert for rugby.

Rankings are pretty much daft in my eyes

by robbo277 Tue Feb 14, 2012 4:54 am

Just pointing it out. Obviously the winner of the game will have bragging rights having won the game, but they'll be that extra victory to look forward too.

I'm hoping for a much better England performance. The win is the most important thing, and I would take any scrappy win, but we'll have to up our game to even get that against this Wales side. They're playing really well and with a lot of confidence.

by mystiroakey Tue Feb 14, 2012 5:38 am

or we could just win for the 3rd time in a row based on luck only!

by Portnoy Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:45 pm

R3 possibilities posted in OP (or top of page if you like).

Less Fra v Ire obviously.

If Wales win, they overtake England. And the Scotland v France game opens a range of possibilities.

by kiakahaaotearoa Tue Feb 14, 2012 6:50 pm

If Argentina win some games in the 4N, they could do some real damage in the rankings to the top three. I think at home they might be tough to beat. Especially as none of the games is in Buenos Aires.

I remember a lot of Welsh supporters complaining about the rankings. As they seem to be climbing, the complaints seem quieter. I think they are being rewarded for their consistency and if they continue in that winning vein, then they will no doubt climb even more.

by Portnoy Wed Feb 15, 2012 12:50 am

The truth is that style is of no consequence. And all the 'ifs' imaginable are of no consequence.

It's the score reported in the following day's newspaper that counts.

The formula may be wrong, but the consequent hard maths of the result can't be.

And that's not going to change before the 2015 RWC final draw.

by Morgannwg Wed Feb 15, 2012 3:30 am

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:If Argentina win some games in the 4N, they could do some real damage in the rankings to the top three. I think at home they might be tough to beat. Especially as none of the games is in Buenos Aires.

I remember a lot of Welsh supporters complaining about the rankings. As they seem to be climbing, the complaints seem quieter. I think they are being rewarded for their consistency and if they continue in that winning vein, then they will no doubt climb even more.

I think it was more to do with how Argentina can be up there so high whilst playing so few games and not beating many higher ranked teams.

Maybe it also had something to do with England fans using it as a whip to slag off Wales when the reality is that they are not a better team.

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