Heineken Cup Pool 5 - Discussion

I thought I would add a preview for pool 5 as it doesn't have one yet. It should be very interesting with the recent good form of Treviso and Ospreys in comparison to the disastrous form of Biarritz in the top 14.


Biarritz - the Basque giants are Heineken Cup veterans and were only pipped to the post in the HC final just two seasons ago. In the Top 14 this season they have had a horrific start - they are rooted to the foot of the table with only 1 win and 2 draws from 9 games. Their two draws at home vs Agen and Lyon with their only win against Bordeaux. Of course they will be buoyed by two of France's key world cup finalists, Dimitri Yachvili and Imanol Harinorduquy who will be key to their chances. Other stars include USA winger Nwgenya, Benoit Baby and Iain Balshaw. They have the heineken cup pedigree but do they have the capabilities to come out of a tough group?

Key player: Imanol Harinorduquy


Ospreys - the team dubbed as the "galacticos" have been trying their utmost to destroy this tag invented by the media. They have resorted to the banning of fake tan, colour boots and getting rid of a few of their so called "superstars" like James Hook,Mike Phillips and Lee Byrne leading to being less in the limelight. This policy seems to have reaped dividends with them currently at the summit of the Celtic League things look promising for the Ospreys.

They still have plenty of class in their lineup like Ryan Jones,Adam Jones,Shane Williams and Tommy Bowe mixed with a nice blend of youngsters. They will be licking their lips at the prospect of yet another HC quarter final. Could they maybe go onto to greater things?

Key player:Adam Jones


Saracens - the English champions will want to make amends of a very poor Heineken cup last season with only 1 win. In contrast to their very poor European ranking Saracens have been one of the form teams in the Aviva Premiership, having just lost 1 game in 19 in the AP. (I think) Their game has been built on a very strong defence and taking every opportunity on offer. Not the most profilic try scorers but will ruthlessly punish you if given the chance. In terms of their lineup they are building a formidable squad with plenty of strength in depth. They have a nice mix of young talent like James Short,Owen Farrell and Jamie George, a strong and experienced contingent of foreigners like Schalk Brits,Ernst Joubert,Jacuqes Burger and Neil De Kock and also excellent fringe English players like David Strettle,Charlie Hodgson and Steve Borthwick. Look like the favourites to top the pool but the question of try bonus points will always be on the mind. Do they have the potential to win the Heineken Cup?

Key player:Charlie Hodgson

Treviso - the Italian team are certainly not going to be pushovers this season. 6th in the Rabo, winning the 4 of the last 5 they will fancy causing an upset at two. Certainly at home where they have had notable wins. They do have classy players in their side like Italian internationals Alessandro Zanni, Fabio Semenzato and Leonardo Ghiraldini. All the pressure will be on the other three sides to perform so Treviso can just play their own game and aim to frustate their opposition.

Key Player:Alessandro Zanni



Pool Predictions

1.Saracens
2.Ospreys (Best runners up)
3.Biarritz
4.Treviso

The expert's previews:

http://www.planet-rugby.co.za/story/0,25883,16016_7298871,00.html

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2011/1109/1224307252305.html

http://www.gamblingkingz.com/news/2011/11/08/heineken-cup-rugby-odds-and-pool-previews-part-2.asp


Thoughts?

Ospreys
Biarritz
Saracens
Treviso

Tough pool.

Treviso are much improved and will be stubborn opponents in Italy. Ospreys look more of a 'team' as opposed to 'collection of talented individuals' this year, and it would be incredibly French for Bitarritz to cast off their domestic stupor and absolutely blitz the group. Saracens are the most ruthless and professional and will be tough to beat home and away.

That, I think will be key, Saracens ability to win on the road. I don't see Treviso or the Ospreys going to France and winning, whereas Saracens definitely have the ability and mental toughness to do so.

For me they are the pool favourites, and I am not convinced that a best runner up will come from this pool, as Treviso have shown they are now capable of taking big scalps at home, and I can see one of, or possibly both of Biarritz and Ospreys coming unstuck there.

Biarritz have been poor for a few years now and stumbled into the final two years ago playing pretty poorly. They only just made the competition this year and have relied too heavily in the past on Imanol, Yachvili and Traille. I can see them losing in Italy for the second year in a row.

Ospreys have shed a fair few players, some who will be missed more than others. They are playing as a team and looking good in the Celtic league. However good early season form in the CL has often proved misleading.

Sarries after threatening to cut loose in the second half of 2009/10 have been the epitome of efficient in the premiership since then. Having lost the premiership final 2 seasons ago they retreated back to a more conservative game plan. This has worked well, but does mean that they allow teams to stay far too close to them at times. This is perhaps their best chance in a long time to make good progress in the HC.

Treviso have had some good wins in the CL and are unlikely to be the walkover we have seen from Italian sides in the HC. They will hope to at least repeat Aironi's feat from last season and beat Biarritz.

Overall I think Saracens will top the group - but it will be tight with Ospreys. I expect the runners up will not make the HC 1/4 finals.

Welshman4life any reasons for your prediction or just your heart overruling your head?

Saracens are favourites to top the pool because they are the English champions, have won 7 in a row in the AP, have won 11 away matches in the AP in a row. They have the most balanced side. Their biggest weakness is the inability to pick up try bonus points and really crush opposition when winning. Neither Biarritz and Ospreys holds any fears as Saracens effectively knocked out both in their last HC encounters in the 2007-8 season.

The double header between Ospreys and Saracens will probably decide the group as Biarritz are in poor form.

I read somewhere that in the last 7 out of 8 competitions Biarritz have had an Italian side in their group.

The ability to win away from home will be likely be the decisive factor and Saracens hold the edge there.

LondonTiger I like your take on the group.

This will be a very tight group I think, and although theres an italian team, they'll fancy their chances against all of the teams at home.

Saracens are in the best form currently, but they've not done much in the past couple of seasons in the Heineken, its a strange comparison of records for them looking at their AP vs Heineken form of the last few years. It certainly shows that Heineken is a different animal to the league, although I think we all know thats the case for all the teams involved.

I fancy the ospreys to surprise a few people this year and I'd imagine a strong forward-orientated gameplan on their trips away, and they have the pack to compete up front with any team in europe (Sarries back row is a real class act mind).

Fancy Biarritz to make a real turnaround now Yachvilli and Harry are back mind, Harry is the heartbeat of that team and their form seems to loosely follow his it seems.

If I had to guess:

1 Sarries
2 Biarritz
3 Ospreys
4 Treviso

although, thats as realistic a possibility as

1 Biarritz
2 Ospreys
3 Sarries
4 Treviso

It is a very open group for those 3 and I fancy Treviso (at home) will have a real say on who comes out on top

Can't see past Saracens winning the group possibly their only stumbling block could be away against Biarritz who play a very similar game and with their internationals back will impliment it far better then they have been.

Conversely Biarritz could easily come last in the pool if Treviso are strong at home.

beshocked wrote:
I read somewhere that in the last 7 out of 8 competitions Biarritz have had an Italian side in their group.

If thats correct it explains how a side who I rate as pretty average have done so well year on year.They always seeem to be found out when they meet a good side.

Have Saracen improved,they were unlucky to be in a group with imo 2 of the top 3 teams in Europe last year so they'll be a threat this year.It'll be a tough group and I can only see one side getting out as all the teams look strong at home.

I think Ospreys will scrape into the quarters ahead of Saracens. Biarritz to disappoint and I think Treviso will take a scalp.

asoreleftshoulder very valid points.

Red Stag any reason for your prediction? I can see Ospreys scraping into the quarter finals as usual but only as best runners up.

Where does the confidence from Ospreys come from?

A lot of these things are gut feeling Beshocked.

Probably due to their performances this year, which may not have been as eye-catching as years gone by in the league, but their showing grit, teamwork and the wanting to work for eachother, 3 attributes you would not mutter in the same breathe as the ospreys.

The forward pack is on a level with the best in europe, and theres a number of very good young backs coming through. They've been playing well and had a high intensity (perhaps not high quality) game against the scarlets last wknd.

I'm actually quite hopeful for the ospreys getting to the quarters as a minimum. But this is a difficult group to call, where does the confidence in sarries come from? Bar domestic form?

Bar domestic form? Well Saracens haven't lost to a weak side in European competitions for a long long time. Saracens knocked out both Biarritz and Ospreys in their last HC meetings. They crushed Biarritz - inflicting on them their heaviest defeat in the HC. Ospreys co called galacticos weren't enough to beat a underrated Saracens. This could prey on the mind and there are still Biarritz and Ospreys players who were part of that.

In the season before (2009-10) we had quite possibly the toughest Amlin group ever at the time. - Saracens,Toulon,Castres and Rugby Rovigo. We won 5 out of 6 yet didn't qualify for the next round. We beat Toulon 28-9 at home. This crippled our European ranking.

The teams who have beaten us in Europe in the last 2 years are:Toulon away,Leinster home and away,Clermont home and away, Racing Metro home. The Saracens european record doesn't look so bad when you look who they lost to.

In the AP,Saracens have been brutally efficient. Racking up 4 in a row wins vs Leicester, 5 vs Bath,4 vs Quins,3 vs Gloucester,5 in a row vs Saints etc.

Comfort it's Saracens' pool to lose. Most of the professional pundits are backing us. I wonder why.....

BeShocked, poor record in Europe is still a poor record in Europe. It matches the Ospreys record at best.

Harking back to a game 3 seasons ago between the sides is a bit much aswell.

Sarries have good domestic form, the Ospreys have good domestic form.

Currently, Sarries are the better team, although, that doesnt mean they wont end up not qualifying from their group again? The same can be said for the ospreys as far as "not getting out of their group again".

My point is, other fans will feel as strongly about their sides chances as you will yours and its always easy to de-cry/embelish a sides acheivements.

Im not a fan of either side by the way and I think its a very open group, with Sarries starting as favourites.

one last point, although Sarries start favourites, i wouldnt go anywhere near saying "its theirs to lose". Whichever of the 3 win this group, will certainly deserve their place in the QF.

Comfort wrote:
the Ospreys have good domestic form.

I can't see a side that has lost to Glasgow and Treviso this season topping their pool, particularly if they play like they did against Scarlets this weekend.

Comfort

ok maybe it's theirs to lose is an overexaggeration but Saracens certainly start favourites.

Of course whoever wins the group deserves their place in the quarter finals.

I don't see it as open as you do unless Biarritz start playing well again.

Look my point it isn't a clear cut as you make it.

An easier/harder pool skews things.

Biarritz have had an Italian side in 7 out of 8 pools. You don't think that helped their cause?

Saracens in the last two seasons have had two very tough pools. Let's see what we can do with a much easier group. If we don't take this opportunity then it's our own fault.

Saints cruised their HC pool and made it to the final because of relatively easy match ups last season. Leinster had to do it the very hard way.

Of course Saints took their opportunity but if you look at the path they had, it's not surprising they made it to the final.

Unsurprisingly Saracens reached the HC semis when they had Viadana,Glasgow and Biarritz.

Clermont have had it the worst with 3 tough groups in a row.

Not really embelishing.

This is a tight looking pool! I would say Saracens will fancy their chances alright, but then so will Biarritz and the hairsprays .

roddersm that might be the case but every single preview I have seen so far points to one conclusion. Especially planet rugby.

I hope they are right.

Bearing in mind I don't watch these teams a lot I would be leaning towards Saracens Beshocked but I think it is anyone's pool.

The Ospreys still have plenty of talent and Barraitz will have a great european pedigree even if they don't travel the best. As English champs Saracens are obviously a good side and probably deserve to be favourites.

Beshocked, i dont disagree with you about easier/harder pools skewing figures, but all we ever hear is "its the results that count".

Believe me, I've heard that countless, countless times as a welsh fan over the last few months, nevermind the rest of my rugby-watching life.

I agree Sarries start favourites, Ospreys probably second behind them, followed by Biarritz, lastly Treviso. Not sure why I've had to repeat that so many times, I've stated numerous times Sarries start as favourites, but its the type of group that could be blown open in the first game, such is the quality throughout the 3 sides. Not really that outlandish to suggest that Sarries wont walk the group?

Stlowe, Treviso are not as far behind as people think either, as I mentioned earlier, i really think Treviso will fancy their chances in their home games this year. I dont expect them to really trouble the sides away from italy mind.

I am not going to underestimate Ospreys and Biarritz though you might think otherwise! We have still got to notch up the wins and it certainly won't be a walk in the park.

I just think that Biarritz aren't as good as their European record would say they are. Plus their form in the top 14 so far has been disastrous. If we can beat Biarritz in Biarritz I will be very pleased nonetheless.

The Ospreys are a good side but are they good enough to beat us? We'll have to see.

As stlowe says Ospreys must be vulnerable if they lose to Glasgow and Treviso.

From a Saracens perspective we should aim for 22 points - 5 wins, 1 losing bonus point and 1 try bonus point. A realistic target.

I'm not expecting too much this year from the O's. i'd be happy with a runner-up place, but the Italians are no push overs anymore.

Comfort no of course you're right.

Quickball agree with you there but the aim should be gain 5 points at home, 4 away against Treviso.

If Treviso somehow beat us in the first game it'll put a spanner in the works!

http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/news/14878.php

Didn't realise Ospreys had such an impressive home record in the HC. 12 wins in a row since 2007!

Ospreys need to get out of their recent slump if we are going to challenge in this group ( Only lost to Glasgow, not Treviso this season) I could've taken a loss against the Scarlets if we played well but the game was truly abject. I see Sarries as faves and hopefully we can get the best runners up spot. I just hope the O's can start winning away from home more consistenly in the HC. The record at the Lib is superb. I'd def target a win at Wembley as a boost in confidence for the rest of the season.

Good luck all...

Breadvan wrote:Only lost to Glasgow, not Treviso this season

Sorry, my bad, you're quite right, don't know how I got that one wrong, probably just because it was so close and they were leading at HT.

beshocked I see you're foolishly dismissing this as an easy group and clutching on to games from... 2008? You're in for a shock, but I guess you are used to being shocked.

"The Ospreys are a good side but are they good enough to beat us? We'll have to see."

At home yes, I think it's a foregone conclusion. I believe they last lost at home to Munster in the League but as pointed out have not lost at the Lib since 2007 in the Heineken Cup. That was against the likes of Leicester, Perpignan, Clermont, Toulon, London Irish; all very good teams.

If I was to compare your team to another in the pool then it would actually be the Ospreys and not Biarritz. If Adam Jones if available I'd give the advantage to them up front. Bit unsure of the back-row because nobody is gauranteed their places yet, all apart from JT at number 8. So a strong pack but not much behind that since the void left by Hook has not been filled and then there's Biggar booting the leather off the thing and missing drop goals for fun.

Treviso put 50 on my team, I can see them beating Biarritz. The Italians are on the verge of the foundations of building a rivalry with the French in Rugby. They'll be quite a handful for all other opponents.

Just let Beshocked keep writting off all the other teams in the group, then see what actually happens after this weekend. Confidence is one thing, but arrogance is another, no wonder everybody looks at the English as being arrogant Beshocked you are not doing your countrymen any favours with the way you just dismiss other teams, and for the record, Ospreys, who are in your group, have only just a few weeks ago went to Thommand park and beat Munster.

But the week after went to Glasgow and got turned over? One game doesn't make a ...

Lord Dowlais and Morganwwg

No Morganwwg. You mistook what I said. It is a much easier group than Saracens have had in the last two seasons. That's why I am optimistic.

Don't mistake lack of fear of Biarritz,Ospreys and Treviso as underestimating them. We have still got to notch up the wins but I am confident we can.

Where do you draw the line of confidence and arrogance?

Is it not arrogant to say a match is a foregone conclusion or are English people only arrogant?

Saracens have an immense away record so will feel confident they could get a result.

As a Welshman you would build up your own side. You better hope Adam Jones isn't injured because it seems the Ospreys must rely on him too much.

"I am not going to underestimate Ospreys and Biarritz though you might think otherwise! We have still got to notch up the wins and it certainly won't be a walk in the park."

When I say it is Saracen's pool to lose I mean that we are the favourites.

This is what I have said.

Is it arrogant to think that the favourites will win the group? I apologise!

Please quote what has upset you.


Thank you aslongasbut100.

Didn't Quins beat Munster at Thomond? It's not exactly been a fortress it once was.

No Quins did not beat Munster at Thomman, they narrowly beat them at their own ground. when they went to Thommand the had their behinds shown to them.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/9469632.stm

Sorry LordDowlais the BBC website must be wrong!

LordDowlais wrote:No Quins did not beat Munster at Thomman, they narrowly beat them at their own ground. when they went to Thommand the had their behinds shown to them.

I think the semis are a straight knock out, no home and away fixtures?

True aslongasbut100ofus I can't quite understand what LordDowlais is on about.

I can see Sarries finding it tough in this group. I can see them getting three home wins and an away win vs Treviso but they are not good at wracking up the bonus points and that is the key to escaping top of your group. The Ospreys tend to turn up at home in the group stages and Biarittz home ground is an arena where the crowd bays for blood. You don't want to be going there needing a win.

I think Biartiz look a bit lost this season and won't recover in time so may suffer in the opening engagements and then only bother to protect their home record. The Ospreys are the dark horses here with Sarries the favourites but the Welsh boys will be on a high following the RWC and have a lot of pace amongst their youngsters. However, if Adam Jones suffers another injury then I think they will fall. They need the big man at 3.

Sam the crucial thing is that we have Biarritz away next week. If we beat Biarritz away and notch up a try bonus against Treviso we'll be in the driving seat.

Do not underestimate our away form. We have stormed so many grounds in the AP. Repeatedly too.

I feel that if Stevens can hold Jones to parity then Nieto can pummel whoever he is up against in the scrum. Nieto is one of the most underrated scrummagers around IMO.

Can the Ospreys match us physically?

Sorry got the game mixed up with the Northampton games in the pool. I do apologise.

Beshocked,

You seem to be suggesting Stevens will be propping on the LH, what is his form like post WC? I have never been convinced when he plays LH and he struggled at the WC. With Brits being weaker in the scrum than Wally was at the world cup, it will be exceedingly tough for Stevens to gain parity with Jones.

LondonTiger there's no guarantee Brits will start against Ospreys. With Smit and George in the squad they could well get the nod. Both are better scrummagers.

That's probably the strategy I would use. Bring on Brits at the 50 minute mark. Start Brits against Biarritz and Treviso though as his greater mobility will be more of an asset vs them.

At Saracens we do have a little bit of weakness at loosehead.He might well perform better now he is back at Saracens.

Still at tight head it means we'll have Nieto starting with Stevens on the bench which is a lethal combo.

Plus I expect Saracens do the damage in the lineout which has turned into one of our biggest strengths. Certainly with Borthwick running the show.

beshocked wrote:I am not going to underestimate Ospreys and Biarritz though you might think otherwise! We have still got to notch up the wins and it certainly won't be a walk in the park.

I just think that Biarritz aren't as good as their European record would say they are. Plus their form in the top 14 so far has been disastrous. If we can beat Biarritz in Biarritz I will be very pleased nonetheless.

The Ospreys are a good side but are they good enough to beat us? We'll have to see.

As stlowe says Ospreys must be vulnerable if they lose to Glasgow and Treviso.

From a Saracens perspective we should aim for 22 points - 5 wins, 1 losing bonus point and 1 try bonus point. A realistic target.

When did the ospreys lose to treviso???

Top of the league, won loss to glasgow, one draw with scarlets.

Just going with what stlowe said maestegmafia.

Anyway turning things on it's head you can say that the Ospreys haven't won in any of their last 4 games with losses to Glasgow,draw to Scarlets and losses in the LV by Saints and Exeter.

Big game for both Biarritz and Ospreys. If Ospreys lose it will be 5 games without a win, for Biarritz it will be just continue their awful start. Their confidence will be shot to pieces.

Sam the crucial thing is that we have Biarritz away next week. If we beat Biarritz away and notch up a try bonus against Treviso we'll be in the driving seat.

Now that is a serious advantage. If Sarries can make the most of that then only the Ospreys will stop them from topping the group. The Ospreys are dangerous as they tend to be innovative in attack but can lack a bit of clinical precision sometimes.

Beshocked you are living in cloud cuckoo land, dragging up half truths, untruths and sceptical rationalisations. I am affraid your cocky confidence bubble may burst very soon.

I have watched plenty of Aviva rugby this year and Saracens Play some ridiculously conservative rugby, kick far too much ball away. Saracens position in the Aviva is flattered by them not loosing many players to the RWC. Saracens will lose all their away matches, and probably one at home.

The ospreys are doing well but they have a young side with a great deal to learn. They have some great plays in their squad who really believe in themselves, behind a first or second string pack that are very good indeed. They have their welsh players returning now, players like Alun Wynn jones, Adam jones, Huw Bennett (can't believe I am talking about im as a plus but I am), Shane Williams. New recruits Fouatali and Stowers looked great for Samoa, seem to be fitting in well. Will win their home matches and two away.

Biarritz are the best team in this group on paper! They have underperformed early doors in the top 14 while missing their stars. But with players like Yachvilli and Harinourdiquy back they will be a completely different team. Will win two home and two away.

Treviso are a good team at home, but they don't travel well. They have lost only two games at home, one to the ospreys the other to Glasgow. Beinvenuti looks e real deal on the wing, the rest of the team are dogged, well coached and have a lot of spirit.

Ospreys
Biarritz
Saracens
Treviso

maestegmafia wrote:Beshocked you are living in cloud cuckoo land, dragging up half truths, untruths and sceptical rationalisations. I am affraid your cocky confidence bubble may burst very soon.

I have watched plenty of Aviva rugby this year and Saracens Play some ridiculously conservative rugby, kick far too much ball away. Saracens position in the Aviva is flattered by them not loosing many players to the RWC. Saracens will lose all their away matches, and probably one at home.

The ospreys are doing well but they have a young side with a great deal to learn, but they have some great plays in their squad who really believe in themselves, behind a first or second string pack that are very good indeed. They have their welsh players returning now, players like Alun Wynn jones, Adam jones, Huw Bennett (can't believe I am talking about im as a plus but I am), Shane Williams. New recruits Fouatali and Stowers looked great for Samoa, seem to be fitting in well. Will win their home matches and two away.

Biarritz are the best team in this group on paper! They have underpfrmed early doors in the top 14 while missing their stars. But with players like Yachvilli and Harinourdiquy back they will be a completely different team. Will win two home and two away.

Treviso are a good team at home, but they don't travel well. They have lost only two games at home, one to the ospreys the other to Glasgow. Beinvenuti looks e real deal on the wing, the rest of the team are dogged, well coached and have a lot of spirit.

Ospreys
Biarritz
Saracens
Treviso

8+, I believe?

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:8+, I believe?

I count three Saracens players. Stevens, Tagicakibau and Wigglesworth

Please name your eight...?

Try:
England - Stevens, Wigglesworth,
Scotland - Brown
Namibia - Burger
South Africa - Smit
USA - Wyles
Fiji - Tagicakibou, Ratuvou

Can't think of any more at the moment, but will come back if i do

Saracens are the best team in England.

They have not shone in HC in recent years, but this is the easiest group they have had in a while. That is not to say it is easy, just easier.

Biarritz have the pedigree in Europe, but they are a poor team now and have been flattered by being in easy groups.

Ospreys have a similar record in Europe to Sarries, and are in similar form this year.

Treviso will not be a walkover - but playing in HC against full strength teams is very different to playing in Rabo against weakened teams.

Well that is more than I thought.

Must say though that most of those have been back nearly a month none from teams that progressed past losing quarterfinals, whilst the welsh and French players only started playing last week.

Big difference.

That's true too