Inaugural 4N: Expectations

Firstly I refuse to call this comp by its real name. The people who came up with that name need an egg parade through the streets of Auckland, Sydney, Cape Town and Buenos Aires.

As of yet, the venue for the games in Argentina are yet to be confirmed. But how do you think the teams will go in this tournament with an even more punishing travel schedule.

Firstly, the holders, Australia. If the Reds continue their good Super form and they can find improvement in the Force, Brumbies and Waratahs, then no doubt Deans will have a wide pool of players to pick from. The key though remains injuries. This year Australia seemed to have a horror run with injuries. There are plenty of names to replace Beale or Ioane but the backline combinations suffer as a result. Get all those guys fit and that Aussie backline is dangerously threatening. Inside centre isn´t locked down yet but there is enough quality there for that not to be an issue. The front row and back row cover is pretty slim though. If they can keep their first squad on the field for most of the matches, the Aussies are going to be a real handful. It´ll be interesting how they do against the newcomers Argentina who are very good in the set piece. Especially away to them, Australia might find them difficult to beat.

Secondly, the ABs. They more or less have the nucleus of players from the World Cup. Brad Thorn will be tough to replace but there are plenty of options there. Backrow cover remains an issue and at least the horror run with injuries to the flyhalves in the RWC showed that there is life without Carter. No team had ever won the 3N and the RWC but just as other teams will be motivated to beat the world champs, so too will NZ be motivated to get the only piece of silverware missing from their cabinet. We have a proud record against Argentina but they showed in the RWC that they can be brutally effective. Especially facing them away, they are going to be a big threat.

The Sprinboks will hopefully have a new coach who is able to rise above the politics of the administrators and impose his own style on the Boks. Smit as a leader is difficult to replace but as a player Du Plessis was the best hooker in rugby last year in my opinion. Matfield and Botha, however, are not so easily replaced. Plenty of names in the hat but with a huge task of filling such big boots and not just literally. If they can construct a game off their traditional fierce forward play and combine it with a game mixed up with astute kicking and powerful running then the Boks no doubt will be back with a vengeance.

Lastly, the Pumas. Out of all the RWC games I watched, I was amazed at how brutal the Argentinians were on defence. In the game against the ABs, they didn´t just drive some big players back in the tackle. They made them pay bus fare and hammered them into the ground for their troubles. There is no secret as to how these guys play. But that swarming and brutual defence is not easy to unlock. They missed their star back Hernandez in the RWC as they needed a player who could offer a threat in the backline. If they can get a good kicker who is able to control a game and use the strengths of the Pumas to their advantage and unearth some players in the backs, then they are not by any stretch of the imagination going to be easybeats. At home, they are indeed going to be formidable.

So here are the fixtures:
18/8/2012 - Sudáfrica vs Los Pumas, en Ciudad del Cabo Big ask for the Pumas although at least in Capetown they´re at sea level. Bok win.

Australia – Nueva Zelanda, en Sydney The Aussies will be fired up. They will want to get their confidence up and a home game first up is a perfect opportunity. Wallabies for a narrow win and the pressure to go on Hansen.

Fecha 2

25/8/2012 - Los Pumas – Sudáfrica The Pumas return to home and their first up game against SA is a perfect opportunity to learn from their mistakes. This will be a much closer game in my opinion. Boks to narrowly win.

Nueva Zelanda – Australia, en Auckland Eden Park hoodoo and a team fired up for revenge. I think an ABs win here.

Fecha 3

8/9/2012 - Nueva Zelanda – Los Pumas, en Wellington Another home game and this to be a good chance for some momentum for the ABs. Another win for them.

Australia – Sudáfrica, en Perth A difficult one to call this. Not too many tests in Perth and the Boks will feel as close to home as most of the Wallabies. This match should be a cracker. Too close to call but going for a Bok win.

Fecha 4

15/9/2012 - Australia – Los Pumas, en Gold Coast Good to see a test match in the Gold Coast. If you were travelling to all these matches you sure get to see some great places! I think this could be a game where the Aussie backs run riot.

Nueva Zelanda – Sudáfrica, en Dunedin SA won here last time they played NZ. NZ won´t want to turn the House of Pain into pain for them. I predict a narrow NZ win but this one somehow is going to be very tight.

Fecha 5

29/9/2012 - Los Pumas – Nueva Zelanda Huge match. Could there be an upset and the Pumas claim their first win against NZ? It might well be the match to do that. Then again that record works both ways and no AB team wants to be the first team to lose. An AB win by the narrowest of margins (drop goal in the last minute maybe?)

Sudáfrica – Australia, en Pretoria Going to be another great match. Depending on the last result, this could well be another cliff-hanger. Aussies to win in the dying minute.

Fecha 6

6/10/2012 - Los Pumas – Australia Well they´re at home again and are tough to beat there. An upset has to happen some time. It could be against any of the three others. But I´m picking it here. Pumas win.

Sudáfrica – Nueva Zelanda This could well be the deciding match for the tournament. Any game between the Boks at home against NZ is compelling viewing. A Bok win.

I really have no idea with the predictions. But one thing I noticed when making them is how much a difference Argentina makes to making this tournament more enjoyable. I´m really glad to see them involved in a meaningful tournament. They might not go well the first year. Who knows? They might surpass their expectations. But regardless, their rugby will benefit from having more regular international competition and their different style of play will be a welcome addition to SH rugby. So I can´t wait for this tournament. Bonus points no doubt will be crucial in deciding the winner. It´s going to be close and no doubt Argentina will be the neutrals´ favourite in the NH.

A decent warm up in the winter and then on to the 4N. Don't expect them to win any games but if it's the start to a good training period with a decent series of matches they should improve pretty quickly. The difference in them for the odd one off game and at the world cup is massive

they should improve pretty quickly

That's what we thought about Italy. But they've been pretty much rooted to the bottom of the 6 Nations for 11 years. They were actually better in the 90's when they weren't in any competition. But we waited to long to let them in. By the time they got into the 6 Nations their best players were aging and retiring and the replacements weren't as good.

The same has happened with Argentina. The great team of '07 is 4 years ago now. They're not as good anymore. I think they're gonna get regular thrashings for years.

The thing that seems to have finally helped Italy get more competitive is entering teams into the Celtic League. Is there any chance of Argentinian franchises in Super Rugby? If not, I think they'll always struggle with the intensity of the 4N.

Unfortunately I agree with Feckless. This has come 4 years too late for the Puma's. Circa 2007 they were genuinely one of the worlds top sides but now I think they will really struggle.

Whilst I agree that they´ve lost a lot of class players, I think they´ve still got a lot of good quality players especially in the forwards. Once they start to commit players into their own game and move away from the European club scene, I think the next step is to allow them into the Super competition.

I know they´re going to find it tough initially but I´m confident they can spring a few surprises. Especially at home.

Looking at their squad it won't be another 4 years untill the majority of their WC squad retire as most of them are around 28-27 so they will be ok for another while, they also have a few younger players gradually trinkling through. Although they won't be the force they once were for a while its not all bad. A team in the S15 is a must in the next few years though, starting with playing their younger players who will go there instead of France and gradually building with older players coming back from France and else where.

Feckless Rogue wrote:

they should improve pretty quickly

That's what we thought about Italy. But they've been pretty much rooted to the bottom of the 6 Nations for 11 years. They were actually better in the 90's when they weren't in any competition. But we waited to long to let them in. By the time they got into the 6 Nations their best players were aging and retiring and the replacements weren't as good.

The same has happened with Argentina. The great team of '07 is 4 years ago now. They're not as good anymore. I think they're gonna get regular thrashings for years.

The thing that seems to have finally helped Italy get more competitive is entering teams into the Celtic League. Is there any chance of Argentinian franchises in Super Rugby? If not, I think they'll always struggle with the intensity of the 4N.

Good post, agree that it will mirror what happened with Italy. Can only be a good thing in the long run but they will be the bottom team for the foreseeable future. Again as with Italy they should have been playing in this long tournament before now.

It´s not that long a tournament. 6N is longer.

I´d have actually liked to have seen them perform in the 6N or what would´ve become the 7N. Base them in Madrid or anywhere along the French border. I think they would´ve performed really well.

That said, I´m glad to see them in the 4N. Looks like people are underestimating them again. Sure I accept they perform better in the World Cup because they have more preparation time together. But I´m confident they will get at least one win next year and hopefully can even surprise a few times. No doubt some of the big 3 might underestimate them as well at some stage. Teams are not used to a let up in the 3N. They might think when they have to face Argentina that they can rest and rotate a few players and not operate at 100 per cent. That´s dangerous against this side that can make you work for your points.

Argentina are better than Italy. Look at the fight the All Blacks had to put in to get past them at the RWC. That was not an easy game. They've got some good young players and will remain a real handful in the set piece. They just need to sort out their midfield and they will be a real obstical.

When I say improve I mean on their between world cup performances. I think we'll start to see their World Cup level throughout the year. Simply because the squads will be together for longer. Italy play at the same level at world cups as they do in the 6 nations. Hopefully the same will happen with Argentina

True, Argentina are better than Italy. But the competition they're entering is a higher level to the Six Nations. I just think they'll struggle to get wins over the next decade.

In the 4N. But I think they'll be better in the AI and summer tours

If they do win, there will be a fair bit of volatility to the rankings that wasn´t there when the sides were ranked 1, 2 and 3.

The 4Ns will be very interesting,with respect 2011 was`nt typical in the S15s.As was pointed out by other posters The Reds,although good winners
had by far the easiest ride.Through the League phase,hence Semi,and Final
home advantage.IF the draw is more even next year the Australian Franchises may suffer more.
Australia were 3Ns winners,and deservedly so BUT neither SA or NZ fielded
full strength teams in all matches.By changeing style from the free flowing,to the more orthodox RWC Formula Deans may have cost OZ at least a Final Place.
Australia with Coaches and a full team intact will be difficult to beat,Argentina may struggle in the first year but catch up soon.
South Africa with new coaches,and an new team are the unknown factor
always difficult at home,but often struggle away.
NZ new Coaches but a more or less established squad,with a fully fit Dc and RM.Plus the established side only Thorn has been lost from the starting
side.
Whitelock,Williams,Boric,Donnelly,Hoerta at Lock,Wyatt Crockett for Afoa,
Thomson,Vito,Whitelock[George],Matt Todd,the Latimer brothers,Hika Elliot at Forward.
The likes of Slade,Cruden,Toeva,Fruen,Rene Ranger,Ben Smith,Maitland,a dryed out Guildford,Hosea Gear,plus all the youngsters.
Hopefully they will unlike past RWC winners,continue to win most of there games. Average 2 out 15 most years since 2003.