Will the Irish provinces suffer a players exodus?

Whether it is a "development" league or not, the Celtic League has been able to provide the Irish provinces with a continuing supply of players. The induction of guys like Sean O'Brien, Keith Earls, Cian Healy, Peter O'Mahony and Craig Gilroy has been almost seamless and we are beginning to see strenght in depth and whats more Irish strenght in depth.

In one of Munster's pool stage matches in the Heineken Cup this season the bench included Marcus Horan, John Hayes, Donnacha O'Callaghan, Denis Leamy and Tomas O'Leary. Not so long ago that was a third of Irelands national team.

We are now at a stage where (despite reports of an "aging" team) most of Irelands internationals are in their mid 20s with even younger guys champing at the bit for selection in both provinces and internationally.

Do Irish fans expect to see a bit of an exodus in recent years? I just don't see that many players being happy to sit around as backup for their provinces. Despite the efforts of the IRFU to get Irish players for Irish provinces I would expect to see an increase in the amount of players leaving. Why sit on a bench at Leinster when you can go to England and play week in week out. Not even England as it usually was but I expect to see a few of our internationals end up in France or SANZAR.

Yeah TOL is a case in point,all the rumours are that he's off to France.I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing as long as it's benchwarmers and pros in their mid 20's who will struggle to break through.

I don't want to see our top players or youngsters with potential leaving.

A few players will leave, but we'll keep the ones we want to keep. i.e retaining Ross but losing Buckley, retaining Murray and Reddan but (potentially) losing O'Leary and Stringer.

Right now, it seems players want to stay at the provinces though. Look at Rhys Ruddock. He's had offers elsewhere but is trying to make it at Leinster, which is a very competitive environment- same with Dominic Ryan.

Ulster have steadily lost back-up players. See Caldwell going to Bath, Seymour going to Glasgow, McCrea moving to Connacht. Rumours are that Whitten will be leaving when his contract expires now.

Sense of balance guys - Buckley, Caldwell, TOL leave but
Downey, Wilson, Bowe return

The trend, at worst, is even.

As for Ulster, to put it bluntly, the players that have left are the ones that have failed to cut it.

I think that happens more in Ulster, because ther's no tax break to sway them to stay. So I don't know if, up North, we'll see much of a difference.

At the end of last season alone O'Connor, Anderson, McCrea, Seymour, Smith, Caldwell and I think McIlwane all departed. That was a very hefty chunk of our squad. Some of them - Seymour, McCrea - were handy enough squad players.

But it's worth remembering that some find their way back. Of our current (very small and pretty young) squad, Humphreys, Barker, Stevenson, McComish are all returnees. John Andress almost was. And next season, Wilson and some other fella will be in the white again...

I think your tax break thingy is a hugely powerful motivator for players to stay in Ireland, even if they end up warming the bench.

Contrast that with Wales, where Gethin Jenkins said yesterday that he was told that they wouldn't pay him while he was away with Wales so that equated to a new contact only 60% of his older one. It's no wonder players are leaving. With Jenkins he'd be stupid to stay (and take a 40% pay cut) when he could get more in France. The net increase for him going as opposed to staying is probably around 70% (40% he would have lost if he stayed plus I reckon he'll get aroun 30% more money in France than his old contract).

Please bring in central contracts!

geoff998rugby wrote:As for Ulster, to put it bluntly, the players that have left are the ones that have failed to cut it.

I think thats the case across the 'big 3' provinces Geoff. If a player is good enough to play for their home province its very unlikely that they will move. Leinster are current HEC champions and Munster and Ulster are performing well so players have just as good a chance of winning silverware in Ireland as elsewhere.

The tax rebate means that the southern players are better of financially if they stay so as long as Ulster continue on their upward curve there's no reason to expect an exodus.

The only players who will leave are those surplus to requirements.

Don Alfonso wrote:
At the end of last season alone O'Connor, Anderson, McCrea, Seymour, Smith, Caldwell and I think McIlwane all departed. That was a very hefty chunk of our squad. Some of them - Seymour, McCrea - were handy enough squad players.

Half of those guys went to Connacht though so they didn't leave Irish rugby per se. Caldwell has done ok at Bath but I think most of those guys didn't leave out of choice.

Are the new IQ rules not designed to somewhat alleviate this issue? I mean when an NIQ leaves you must replace them with an IQ therefore eventually it will even out the surplus among the four provinces?

There are only so many Downeys and wilsons in England. Eventually The provinces will have to transfer among themselves in the years to come.

I can't see us having the same problems as the Welsh regions, we have central contracts for the top Irish players and more money in the provinces than the regions do. Besides that its not necessarily a bad thing to have a contingent of players playing abroad then looking to come back to one of the provinces, especially if they see a window of opportunity to play international rugby - such as Ross and Reddan coming back from England and going into the Ireland team.

If they are really good and playing abroad they will get into the Ireland team anyway - such as Bowe and Geordan Murphy. The provincial academies seem to be churning out plenty of young talent so I cant see them under performing as a result of players leaving. So all in all, central contracts, big name foreign signings and strong academies will keep us going strong.

clivemcl wrote:Are the new IQ rules not designed to somewhat alleviate this issue? I mean when an NIQ leaves you must replace them with an IQ therefore eventually it will even out the surplus among the four provinces?

There are only so many Downeys and wilsons in England. Eventually The provinces will have to transfer among themselves in the years to come.

I wonder whether the new IQ rules will drive up prices for not so good players? If NIQs leaving means they have to be replaced by IQs, then does that mean that those who have left because they couldn't cut it (Buckley by all accounts, etc.) suddenly become very attractive to the provinces and could demand a higher price, e.g. if they're on a better wage in France for example than they were in ireland? Or, would the provinces just blood an academy player instead?

Depends on the ability of the acadaemy player I guess. But that is probably the irfu's intentions. It forces us to really work on our academys because we know they may be our only option in time.

Money isn't everything there is at least one player who has returned to Ulster who could have earned double playing in Japan - he turned it down.

The IRFU are trying to increase the opportunities for more players by limiting the NIQ imports - a trend likely to continue.

All four provinces are playing at higher levels of rugby which means more tougher games, requiring bigger squads, and a greater chance of winning something.

With only four provinces and the player management policy, the top internationals have far more enforced layoffs than any other country and therefore far more opportunity for the understudies to play, rather than be waiting for opportunites through injury in another league.

The Top 14 is tough on the players and populated by loads of SH Test players who will have no International committments so there will be limited playing opportunity for all but the very best and they are the ones likely to be better off at home.

The only area of exodus would be to the AP for the Irish journeymen who aren't going to make it in Ireland. As the Academies produce more players, then the quality of the cream will be better and that will still be skimmed off to stay in Ireland. So yes more players will leave because more are being produced, and it is up to the provincial Directors of Rugby and the IRFU to ensure they don't let the wrong ones go.

Since Leinster seem to have the most talent, they will probably lose a few players. I mean what would the Leinster HEC and Pro 12 back-lines (specifically back three) look like? They still have the likes of Carr, Conway, Kearney Jr, Kearney Sr, Nacewa, Fitzgerald in the back three. Shaggy to return. Then Macken, EOM who will have to compete with BOD. Who is/isn't going to make it? I imagine Carr won't make it being older than a lot of the options, and he probably shouldn't have moved from Connacht.

Rory based on the fact Leinster want to retain 2 full teams , which equates to 6 players tfor the back three I think the decision is obvious.

Retain - Kearney x2, Nacewa, Fitzgerald, Conway - so 1 of Shaggy or Carr go.
I'd keep Shaggy and replace him with another younster in a year or two.
So its bye bye Carr. Its rough but at the end of the day you keep your best and let the others go by the wayside.

geoff998rugby wrote:Rory based on the fact Leinster want to retain 2 full teams , which equates to 6 players tfor the back three I think the decision is obvious.

Retain - Kearney x2, Nacewa, Fitzgerald, Conway - so 1 of Shaggy or Carr go.
I'd keep Shaggy and replace him with another younster in a year or two.
So its bye bye Carr. Its rough but at the end of the day you keep your best and let the others go by the wayside.

Unfortunately it’s looking less and less likely that Shaggy will return from injury. There has been no update of any kind for months.

Carr’s contract is up at the end of the year though, will be interesting to see what happens to him. I’d say he’ll be kept on for another year.

Carrs options:

- Back to Connacht
- Up to Ulster who need a winger
- Down to Munster where he could take advantage of Howlett retiring
- Aviva Premiership
- Fight it out at Leinster

Do Ulster really need a winger though? Especially if Cochrane has been given a contract. That means we have Trimble, Bowe (I think), Gilroy, Cochrane and then Whitten, Spence and D'Arcy to cover.

Rory,

You have Trimble and Gilroy as establish wingers.

Cochrane has ONE appearance for Ulster.

Whitten and Spence are your backups at centre and Darcy is your backup at fullback.

Bowe hasn't joined anyone. If he does you dont need a winger. Otherwise I think you do.

It's academic Stag, if Shaggy retires (likely) then Carr will stay put.

Without Bowe then yes Carr would be an option. With him I don't think we need any more wingers. Also Spence started off as a winger, not a centre. He may get more gametime at wing with Wallace-Cave starting as our centres.

red_stag wrote:Rory,

You have Trimble and Gilroy as establish wingers.

Cochrane has ONE appearance for Ulster.

Whitten and Spence are your backups at centre and Darcy is your backup at fullback.

Bowe hasn't joined anyone. If he does you dont need a winger. Otherwise I think you do.

There's Gaston too stag. Whitten hasn't left for sure and Bowe looks to be a done deal. I'd happily take Carr but I think he'll get and extension at Leinster.

Leaving aside I am 99% certain Bowe is joining Ulster Carr will not be doing so anyway.

We had a chat last summer and he was looking for a salary totally at variance with his ability. Ulster weren't that impressed by him to be honest.

They would keep Whitten, who is not certain to leave, rather than offer Carr a contract.

Marshall, Pienaar
Humph, Jackson, McKinney
Coachrane, Gilroy
Wallace, Marshall,Farrell,
Cave, spence
Trimble, Bowe
Payne, D'arcy, Nelson

That's not including whittenand gaston and another scrum half, porter probably.

Theres hardly any Irish players in France at present. That'll change in future due to competition for places and more money. I'm not sure how much the Irish teams are willing to pay players if they have many for the same position.

Look at New Zealand. They don't mind seeing players leave because they'll fill the void with other players. McCaw and Carter are the only 2 players they really want to stay in the country. Ireland have a few more irreplaceable players because we don't have the conveyor belt that NZ does.

--
Btw, I heard Whitten is being left go by Ulster. I wouldn't mind Munster signing him.

If it comes to the stage where we're exporting players that we don't need then that can only be a good thing. We should only start worrying if regular international players like Ferris, Healy or Earls started leaving.

profitius wrote:Btw, I heard Whitten is being left go by Ulster. I wouldn't mind Munster signing him.

I've been saying that would be a good move for a while. He's better and younger than Downey and would be an excellent foil for Earls IMO.

I'd have preferred him to Downey.

Stand Porter has a contract for next year

But Downey is the official Sky Sports Ireland 12 in waiting!

It would be weird getting rid of Whitten, given how much we've used him this season. It's not like he's languishing with no game time. Especially as he's been decent on the wing.

Exodus - No.

Carr for Munster no thanks.
Whitten instead of Downey - yes. But would prefer Mafi, or another home grown youngster.

Don Alfonso wrote:It would be weird getting rid of Whitten, given how much we've used him this season. It's not like he's languishing with no game time. Especially as he's been decent on the wing.

We need to move beyond decent though rava. Whitten is solid but also patently a fish out of water on the wing. I would sooner give Cochrane the chance in fairness.

Is it really a problem, if some of our top players, at their peak - leave Ireland for France, for 2 or 3 years? I believe it would improve them as players. And - as individuals

I will put this to all Irish rugby fans. Is the IRFU model of mothering and cosseting them, actually working? I think not. Not at International level for sure. I, for one, am fast losing faith in this IRFU domination of our players provincial contracts. I want the provinces to be entities unto themselves, like in the Jeff and TOP14. Meritocracy rules in business. And rugby-union is a fast growing, World-wide - business.

Let them go. Let them experience another culture. Open their minds & eyes. Let their talents thrive away from home. Let them absorb another way of doing things. And bring it home and spread it around.
From a pure Leinster perspective (add your own provinces players as required) Sexton, SOB and Heaslip would love it. And the shekels. Their replacements, are already in situ. Madigan, Dom Ryan, McLoughlin and Ruddock.

McFadden and O Malley for BOD and Darcy. It also leaves space for the plethora of talent to come through. If only our present International coach had gone abroad in his career, maybe we would be a better international team under him. So, better our players come back, ready to give any future coach a headache, rather than tow the pathetic, Irish, party-line. Had enough of that guff for 40 years now. Enough. Time to grow.

If they do come home, for tax reasons, before they retire. Grand. I dont see a problem with it anymore. We are becoming far too insular. And besides. Its not working at International level. See Wales. Their foreign-based players are growing on the back of it. Even Lee Byrne is re-vitalised.

Our provinces are producing so much talent, something has to give. There is no space for the kids coming through at Leinster for sure. Schmidt has used 29 Leinster Way Academy players so far and we are top of the PRO12 by miles. We are victims of our own success. And, sending them to Connacht, will not improve them - or us, internationally. Best to send them to a higher-level league to grow. Let France pay their wages and let us reap the International benefit. It makes sense. Be honest.

Think outside the insular, Irish, box, for a change. We may even end up with a World Class international side in the process. Who knows?

Having said all that, in the present economic circumstances - it will happen anyway. Families and careers have to be fed. The game we all love, is changing around us. So get used to it suckers.

Once one top marque player moves abroad and sends word back, the flood-gates will open. It's business. And the IRFU cant stop it. No matter what restrictions they put in place. Or, they pay the same wages offered to help them stay. Plus tax-incentives.

The days of BOD saying at the HC Final in 2009 - "I love Leinster, I wouldnt have done this with any other team" - are fast fading. I cried at that moment in Murrayfield, not too far away from him. Have it on camera. But, those days will go with him. Its the way of the World. Sad. But true. Munster and Ulster fans must have felt exactly the same way when their mostly indigenous teams won it. For sure.

It will happen. It has already started at the lower-end.

How ya gonna keep em down on de farm, once they've seen Paree? And enough shekels to keep them secure for Life?

It not all a one way street though - at least 3 Ulster players have said Ulster will be my only team - Best, Brady, P. Marshall

Also we still have a pretty high perecentage of home grown talent in the Provincial teams.
Of our starting 15 against Ospreys

9 born in Ulster
2 Irish qualified through parents
4 NIQ

Hold up well against non Irish sides in terms of the % of home players

Gibson wrote:
I will put this to all Irish rugby fans. Is the IRFU model of mothering and cosseting them, actually working?

Yes and no Gibson I think. The fact that we have 95% of our best players in the country is clearly benefitting the provinces and helping grow the sports popularity in Ireland. Its also helping keep guys fit and prolonging careers.

However I think that it is also stifling the younger talent coming through and I think there is a bit of complacency and staleness in some of our established players from time to time which is making us just fall short at the highest level. Too many players are guaranteed their places under the current set up.

Contrast to Wales who are surging ahead. A lot of their established players are going abroad and finding a new edge to their games and this is allowing younger players to come through get opportunities with their regions.

The Welsh regions may find themselves struggling to be competitive but their national side is looking very healthy.

I wouldn't get carried away Gibson, maybe Leinster are producing more players than they can use, but this may not always be the case, Munster and Ulster have a steady flow but they don'y always produce players of th equality needed in all areas needed, so having the top players leave would be bad news, Leinster have an acamady at present that can plug the gaps the others don't and Leinsters acamady may just be having a boom and the minute a few lean years and it could be a different story.

"Once one top marque player moves abroad and sends word back, the flood-gates will open." T Bowe I'd say is a top marque player, G Murphy in his day was as well.

Irealnd has to keep the top players, but can let the sulpus move on, Pride in your Province in paramont in keeping players at home, however I see the new IRFU rules mean more players will move to different provinces, diluting this somewhat, and weaking the Provinicial Pride.

I'd imagine, Gibbo, that Steven Sykes similarly thought he had a grand new adventure, with limitless horizons awaiting him when he boarded the plane form South Africa during the summer.

It's just not nearly as simple as you're making out. We may well have players going away, playing elsewhere at the peak of their powers, and coming back when they're on the wane.

Kingshu wrote:Irealnd has to keep the top players, but can let the sulpus move on, Pride in your Province in paramont in keeping players at home, however I see the new IRFU rules mean more players will move to different provinces, diluting this somewhat, and weaking the Provinicial Pride.

I don't agree with that Kingshu. Players already move between the provinces fairly regularly. Does Felix Jones or Mike Ross play with less pride for Munster or Leinster respectively? Connacht are already made up heavily from players from the other 3 provinces.

Irish players will always feel a strong provincial bond to their home province but ultimately its a professional sport and players will go where they are best placed to maximise their career. For Irish players with aspirations to represent the national side that usually means one of the provinces so we will always get players moving province regardless of the new IRFU rules.

Personally I'd prefer to see the lads who are surplus heading to Connacht.

I can see that sooner or later there will be too many players in certain positions in certain provinces.

Munster have a huge amount of centres, Leinster backrowers, Munster back 3.

I would like some to head to Connacht if there was an opening at some point rather than have a foreign guy in there.

Imagine adding guys like Dom Ryan, Ian Whitten, Peter Stringer, Andrew Conway, Ian Nagle to their squad if they didn't have cover in certain positions.

I'd prefer a Connacht NIQ to leave Ireland and an Irish man move in rather than an Irish man leave for France while an NIQ remains at Connacht.

Just a thought I guess.

Gibson wrote:
I want the provinces to be entities unto themselves, like in the Jeff and TOP14. Meritocracy rules in business. And rugby-union is a fast growing, World-wide - business.

Everything else you say I can see some merit in but this I object to completely.This system is what has ruined soccer and made it into a game where no top team has more than a handful of homegrown players in their massive squads.It also breeds a monopoly where the richest teams buy up all the talent and the prizes are shared out between the same handful of teams every year.

If rugby ever went that way I could see myself losing interest as while I want Leinster to win every year it should be on merit and not because we have more money than everybody else.

Pete, surely if you feel like that then there shouldn't be any NIQ players keeping an indigenous player out of any of the provinces!
Why single Connacht out?

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Personally I'd prefer to see the lads who are surplus heading to Connacht.

I can see that sooner or later there will be too many players in certain positions in certain provinces.

Munster have a huge amount of centres, Leinster backrowers, Munster back 3.

I would like some to head to Connacht if there was an opening at some point rather than have a foreign guy in there.

Imagine adding guys like Dom Ryan, Ian Whitten, Peter Stringer, Andrew Conway, Ian Nagle to their squad if they didn't have cover in certain positions.

I'd prefer a Connacht NIQ to leave Ireland and an Irish man move in rather than an Irish man leave for France while an NIQ remains at Connacht.

Just a thought I guess.

Spot on Pete. And this may be vital to Ireland furthering their International ability in yeras to come. If promising players get more of a chance and earlier in their careers, it could add a few rungs to the top of their ability ladders!
Its all very well giving them the likes of O'Connor and Anderson (from Ulster) but theres a different class of unused players like Stringer who could be a hero at Connacht. This needs to happen.

clivemcl wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Personally I'd prefer to see the lads who are surplus heading to Connacht.

I can see that sooner or later there will be too many players in certain positions in certain provinces.

Munster have a huge amount of centres, Leinster backrowers, Munster back 3.

I would like some to head to Connacht if there was an opening at some point rather than have a foreign guy in there.

Imagine adding guys like Dom Ryan, Ian Whitten, Peter Stringer, Andrew Conway, Ian Nagle to their squad if they didn't have cover in certain positions.

I'd prefer a Connacht NIQ to leave Ireland and an Irish man move in rather than an Irish man leave for France while an NIQ remains at Connacht.

Just a thought I guess.

Spot on Pete. And this may be vital to Ireland furthering their International ability in yeras to come. If promising players get more of a chance and earlier in their careers, it could add a few rungs to the top of their ability ladders!
Its all very well giving them the likes of O'Connor and Anderson (from Ulster) but theres a different class of unused players like Stringer who could be a hero at Connacht. This needs to happen.

That's quite a condescending comment.
I don't think anyone "gave" them to Connacht. They obviously felt it was the right move at the time.

Ireland are retaining their elite and stand-in players in almost all cases.

The tier below that might move on, but only because they see the academy producing behind them, young players in their position ahead of them and get worried that by staying as the man in waiting they end up getting too old at the very stage that they hope to make the final step up.

For certain situations (Leinster backs for example), the academy is so strong at the minute that I'm surprised more don't move/get poached by the Jeff and elsewhere.

I'd be under the impression that this article was created to infer the situation in Wales with elite marquee guys moving away onto the Irish setup. But the control and close links between the provinces and the IRFU mean we effectively look out for our players health better than if they were to head abroad.

But by all means, we are going to end up letting slip a Geordan Murphy every now and then.

Exodus is a bit extreme, and the quality of players that will be lost is also a point well debated here already.

Rava-

I guess that Connacht just have more NIQ's really and I agree that they need them but I'd definitely look down the alley that if Leinster have 4 NIQ's and Connacht have 8 and a Leinster guy was about to leave for France. Maybe Leinster should hold on to their one in question and Connacht should lose their one in question and acquire a the Leinster player.

Like imagine if Ruddock wanted to go to Scarletts because he wasn't getting his game. i'd much prefer to see him at Connacht or Ulster instead of an NIQ there and get rid of the NIQ there.

NB: If this became a strategy I would want a VERY good coach at Connacht.

Rava wrote:

clivemcl wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Personally I'd prefer to see the lads who are surplus heading to Connacht.

I can see that sooner or later there will be too many players in certain positions in certain provinces.

Munster have a huge amount of centres, Leinster backrowers, Munster back 3.

I would like some to head to Connacht if there was an opening at some point rather than have a foreign guy in there.

Imagine adding guys like Dom Ryan, Ian Whitten, Peter Stringer, Andrew Conway, Ian Nagle to their squad if they didn't have cover in certain positions.

I'd prefer a Connacht NIQ to leave Ireland and an Irish man move in rather than an Irish man leave for France while an NIQ remains at Connacht.

Just a thought I guess.

Spot on Pete. And this may be vital to Ireland furthering their International ability in yeras to come. If promising players get more of a chance and earlier in their careers, it could add a few rungs to the top of their ability ladders!
Its all very well giving them the likes of O'Connor and Anderson (from Ulster) but theres a different class of unused players like Stringer who could be a hero at Connacht. This needs to happen.

That's quite a condescending comment.
I don't think anyone "gave" them to Connacht. They obviously felt it was the right move at the time.

The language might be a bit condescending but I do agree with the point being made. Sending over a TH for proper match experience like Hagan was a great thing, but taking him away at the end and sending over (was it Maguire? how is he getting on) a very young youngster isn't really the answer. Connacht should have the opportunity to access the top end of the academy where a province has strength in depth (given those players pro12 experience at senior level) instead of academy entrants or mid level candidate who are on the cusp of being cut.

Each of the cases you mention Pete have to be judged individually. I don't like the fact Nagle has seen so little gametime this season but then munster are responsible for his development and maybe training and working with POC and O'Driscoll is best for him.

It's hard to judge. Of course I would be delighted to see whitten staying in Ireland if he leaves ulster but that is one case and the big three provinces have to have contingencies, especially given the amount of injuries. Let's not forget ulster have had a prop crisis and munster a backrow one at stages this season.

I agree pete, but with Connacht only able to get H-cup rugby by winning the Almin, or relying on another province the Hcup, they are very unliky to finish above one of the three other provinces, makes qualification through the league nearly impossible.