Rabo Pro 12 - The Run-In

First topic message reminder :

I'm not great at writing new topics, but I've been looking for this one, and nobody else created it so I did. Forgive me if its not insightful, its simply a place to discuss the season run-in.

Leinster 77 --> Dragons(a)
Ospreys 67 --> Aironi(a)
Munster 62 --> Ulster(h)
Warriors 61 --> Connacht(h)
Scarlets 57 --> Blues(h)
Ulster 56 --> Munster(a)

Semis 11/12/13 May.

Final 26/27 May.

Ta mate

OP has been updated folks.

From the weekend, Scarlets munster and leinster all did what was required with Glasgow and Ulster slipping up.

Warriors with Treviso and Connacht to come surely have it in the bag now!

Warriors are still in a much more favourable position than Munster who could lose out on a top 4 if they dont win their two difficult matches against Scarlets and Ulster.

At this stage, Ulster not only need to win their matches (unlikely), but they need a few other results to go our way.

I'll be cheering for Scarlets and Treviso this week!

So will I, Clive!

Clive you little tyke, I'm not sure that stealing a LBP at Thomond is going to be regarded as a slip up in a few week's time! It could be the crucial difference between 4th and 5th...

My bad George, I was thinking a little too black and white about the must-wins. You are of course right. (But it would have helped both of us out if you had just beat them. Sure we showed you how to do it the other week!

That was a good LBP that Glasgow got at the weekend but it might not be enough though. A very difficult trip away to Treviso coming up and anything less than a win will pour the pressure on them.

Scarlets should have got a five pointer yesterday, however if they can manage even a narrow win against Munster then they could just sneak in ahead of Glasgow. Obviously that will depend on the Treviso result.

Ulsters team (and performance) in Galway indicates that they are concentrating on HC Semi-final. I expect them to have a full side out against Leinster and might even get a win, though I won't be putting my mortgage on it!

At this stage next week I am predicting this: -

Leinster 77
Ospreys 67
Munster 61
Scarlets 59
Glasgow 58
Ulster 57

I actually think Munster are in serious danger of losing out.

If Ulster beat Leinster at Ravenhill and Munster lose to Scarlets ( or am I just inventing fixtures here?) then a losing bonus point in Limerick would be enough to see us through.

I can see Ulster sneaking 4th place yet.

If Munster lose to Scarlets....

Sure why would they start now, we haven't beaten them since '07


Still, now would be the perfect time for us to do it!


(I am going to just ignore the 18+ injuries we currently have)

Rodders for us to finish ahead of Munster we would have to win both games. Assuming the lose to Scarlets.

rugbydreamer wrote:If Munster lose to Scarlets....

Sure why would they start now, we haven't beaten them since '07


Still, now would be the perfect time for us to do it!


(I am going to just ignore the 18+ injuries we currently have)

Nothing like getting your excuses in early

Are you sure Rava? Surely we'd both be on 60 points going into the final game if we beat Leinster and they lose?

...... wait the penny has dropped! ......

Rava, we had to play Stevo at 12, I reiterate at 12 yesterday! I can't remember the last time he played in that shirt for the Scarlets (or for anyone else for that matter)

Ha, I didn't think my nerves would have kicked in quite so soon, was hoping I'd have been free of them until at least Weds!

Still, blydi love rugby.

rugbydreamer wrote:Rava, we had to play Stevo at 12, I reiterate at 12 yesterday! I can't remember the last time he played in that shirt for the Scarlets (or for anyone else for that matter)

Ha, I didn't think my nerves would have kicked in quite so soon, was hoping I'd have been free of them until at least Weds!

Still, blydi love rugby.

Saw that and I thought he did reasonably well. Will Davies be back for the weekend?

MOST DRAMATIC FINISH:

will come if we get these results this weekend:

Dragons beat Ospreys
Scarlets beat Munster
Ulster beat Leinster
Glasgow beat Treviso

would leave the table as (ignoring BPs):

Leinster 73 --> Dragons(a)
Ospreys 62 --> Aironi(a)
Warriors 61 --> Connacht(h)
Munster 60 --> Ulster(h)
Ulster 60 --> Munster(a)
Scarlets 59 --> Blues(h)

THAT WOULD BE ONE CRAZY WEEKEND!

Rava - Rumours are that Foxy is out for the rest of the season, which would be a massive blow for us as Maule is out with a broken finger, and there's no news on when Scott Williams will be back so we have v little cover for that position now.

We might have to go with Lamont and Warren in centre next week I'm thinking. North and Fenby (if he's fit, was gutted to see him go off injured at the end, he had a cracker of a match) on the wings with Sanjay at FB. Stevo to provide cover for all positions on the bench

clivemcl wrote:MOST DRAMATIC FINISH:

will come if we get these results this weekend:

Dragons beat Ospreys
Scarlets beat Munster
Ulster beat Leinster
Glasgow beat Treviso

would leave the table as (ignoring BPs):

Leinster 73 --> Dragons(a)
Ospreys 62 --> Aironi(a)
Warriors 61 --> Connacht(h)
Munster 60 --> Ulster(h)
Ulster 60 --> Munster(a)
Scarlets 59 --> Blues(h)

THAT WOULD BE ONE CRAZY WEEKEND!

I'm very upset *stamps feet* that my very exciting thread has again went to the dreaded 2nd page! I am reviving it once more in the hope that people will post in it whilst the Sin e Circus has been suspended!

Predictions for the weekend anyone? I'd LOVE the above to happen!

the above happening would be so crazy.

All the fans would be madly trying to keep track of every match, just to see who had made it, twould b v confusing!

Dreamer - I had enough of htat last year. I thought we were in the play-off at one point, as I knew the Ospreys were losing, and only found out we missed out on the play-off after the final whistle of our match. I really hope it doesn't come to that again this season.

clivemcl wrote:

clivemcl wrote:MOST DRAMATIC FINISH:

will come if we get these results this weekend:

Dragons beat Ospreys
Scarlets beat Munster
Ulster beat Leinster
Glasgow beat Treviso

would leave the table as (ignoring BPs):

Leinster 73 --> Dragons(a)
Ospreys 62 --> Aironi(a)
Warriors 61 --> Connacht(h)
Munster 60 --> Ulster(h)
Ulster 60 --> Munster(a)
Scarlets 59 --> Blues(h)

THAT WOULD BE ONE CRAZY WEEKEND!

I'm very upset *stamps feet* that my very exciting thread has again went to the dreaded 2nd page! I am reviving it once more in the hope that people will post in it whilst the Sin e Circus has been suspended!

Predictions for the weekend anyone? I'd LOVE the above to happen!

Hey! We all know this site is for long, circular arguments about religion not talking rugby!

Man, that would be rugby heaven on the last weekend. But it would be exceptionally hard for Scarlets to qualify; either Munster or Ulster would be guaranteed to finish on 64 points with more wins than them, whilst Glasgow and Ospreys have games that they really should win. They'd be heavy favourites anyway.

I'd say if we get those results this weekend, it'll be Leinster, Ospreys, Glasgow and the winner of Munster vs Ulster.

Is it safe to say another Leinster v Ospreys final.

It's gonna be an exciting finish. I'm not sure i could take Leinster losing a 3rd PRO12 final though. That has to stop. A few Leinster related questions.

1. Who'd have the best chance of beating Leinster in Dublin?
2. Could Leinster play the final in Lansdowne? Or does it have to be in the RDS?
3. Would they fill Lansdowne for a Rabo final?

Notch -
Munster draw with Ulster they end up on 62,
Ulster draw with Munster they end up on 62,
Aironi beat Ospreys by 8 and the Ospreys are on 62,
Glasgow pick up a losing bonus point against Connacht 62,
Scarlet beat the Blues 63

See easy for the Scarlets, and home semi-final too.



Just thinking

Ulster draw, with 4 trys = 63
Munster draw, with 4 trys = 63
Warriors draw, no bp = 63 (or Warriors lose by 7 or less, with 4 trys = 63)
Ospreys lose to Aironi, pick up a bonus point = 63
Scarlets win, no bonus point = 63

That would really put the cat amongst the pidgeons.

It's a very good bet, yes. Those guys have the most momentum going into the end of the season. For a while, Ulster were the form side in the league (witness how far off the pace we were after the first third of the season) but we look totally pre-occupied with Europe and I expect our challenge to fizzle out sadly.

Munster have suffered from a lot of injuries and disruption. They are staggering over the line but are still incredibly dangerous in a one-off knockout game. But they could well have Leinster away in the semis.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Dreamer - I had enough of htat last year. I thought we were in the play-off at one point, as I knew the Ospreys were losing, and only found out we missed out on the play-off after the final whistle of our match. I really hope it doesn't come to that again this season.

ah yeah I know, blydi O's nicking it right at the very end! gutted I was.

With regards to Scarlets anyways, all we can do is win our next two matches, and pray some of the others slip up. It really is pretty much out of our hands, and even the part we do have control over, it's going to be difficult1

Notch wrote:It's a very good bet, yes. Those guys have the most momentum going into the end of the season. For a while, Ulster were the form side in the league (witness how far off the pace we were after the first third of the season) but we look totally pre-occupied with Europe and I expect our challenge to fizzle out sadly.

Munster have suffered from a lot of injuries and disruption. They are staggering over the line but are still incredibly dangerous in a one-off knockout game. But they could well have Leinster away in the semis.

Yep - we lost too much ground at the start of the season, think its time to pour everything into the HC, playing Leinster and Munster in our last two matches looking for at least 8 or 9 points is too much.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Just thinking

Ulster draw, with 4 trys = 63
Munster draw, with 4 trys = 63
Warriors draw, no bp = 63 (or Warriors lose by 7 or less, with 4 trys = 63)
Ospreys lose to Aironi, pick up a bonus point = 63
Scarlets win, no bonus point = 63

That would really put the cat amongst the pidgeons.

Put an accumulator on that, if it comes off you'll be able to buy every fan of every team in the league a pint

ScarletSpiderman wrote:
Just thinking
Ulster draw, with 4 trys = 63
Munster draw, with 4 trys = 63
Warriors draw, no bp = 63 (or Warriors lose by 7 or less, with 4 trys = 63)
Ospreys lose to Aironi, pick up a bonus point = 63
Scarlets win, no bonus point = 63

That would really put the cat amongst the pidgeons.

You forgot Leinster to suffer a massive financial problem and go into administration. They get 10 points deducted.

Leinster 63
Ospreys 63
Munster 63
Glasgow 63
Scarlets 63
Ulster 63

red_stag wrote:

You forgot Leinster to suffer a massive financial problem and go into administration. They get 10 points deducted.

Leinster 63
Ospreys 63
Munster 63
Glasgow 63
Scarlets 63
Ulster 63

If that were to happen I think that would surely end all the talk of the Rabo not being a serious league once and for all.

As much I would like Munster to win it I would like to see Munster v Leinster and Glasgow v Os though second unlikely.

I think that if leinster make the HC final Munster would win

Also It would be great for Scotland to get a second big day to the otherside and really get the crowds up for next year. If the Scots got 6k a week that would be great for the league

Brendan wrote:As much I would like Munster to win it I would like to see Munster v Leinster and Glasgow v Os though second unlikely.

I think that if leinster make the HC final Munster would win

Also It would be great for Scotland to get a second big day to the otherside and really get the crowds up for next year. If the Scots got 6k a week that would be great for the league

Seeing as Leinster are uncatchable at the top, and Ospreys unlikely to be caught for 2nd, neither of those are possible. If either Leinster or Ospreys make the final, they will be at home. If both make it Leinster will be at home.

Munster could come 3rd and visit the Liberty to get to a final v Leinster

Glasgow could come 4th and beat Leinster in the RDS to get to a final v Ospreys.

All 3 of those teams have beaten Leinster in the RDS this season. Even if it was only the "A" teams in Munster's case.

Anything can happen, the only thing that's guaranteed at this point is that Leinster will have home advantage for as long as they remain in the tournament.

I think theres a fair chance that Munster could lose their final 2 games and miss out.

ROG isn't available v Scarlets so if they lose that one it could go down to the wire against Ulster.

sorry i meant leinster at home

I would like two Irish and one of the others. If Warriors and Munster one it would be played in Galsgow which works better

I think if ulster or munster get their fourth they'll win unless of corse ulster make the final if that were to happen it would be two week teams

roddersm wrote:I think theres a fair chance that Munster could lose their final 2 games and miss out.

ROG isn't available v Scarlets so if they lose that one it could go down to the wire against Ulster.

Are you assuming Ulster can spoil Leinster's provincial grand slam for the 2nd time in 17 years?

If not, Munster and Ulster could take each other out of it and clear a path for the Scarlets.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

roddersm wrote:I think theres a fair chance that Munster could lose their final 2 games and miss out.

ROG isn't available v Scarlets so if they lose that one it could go down to the wire against Ulster.

Are you assuming Ulster can spoil Leinster's provincial grand slam for the 2nd time in 17 years?

If not, Munster and Ulster could take each other out of it and clear a path for the Scarlets.

or am I only dreaming


Yes yes, I know I really am. Still, nice thought that....

rugbydreamer wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

roddersm wrote:I think theres a fair chance that Munster could lose their final 2 games and miss out.

ROG isn't available v Scarlets so if they lose that one it could go down to the wire against Ulster.

Are you assuming Ulster can spoil Leinster's provincial grand slam for the 2nd time in 17 years?

If not, Munster and Ulster could take each other out of it and clear a path for the Scarlets.

or am I only dreaming


Yes yes, I know I really am. Still, nice thought that....

Scarlets win their last 2. Ulster lose to Leinster and beat Munster. That's all it takes. Not impossible.

With my Ireland fan hat on I want as many Irish teams in the playoffs as possible.

Likely to be 2 at most, as having 3 would need Glasgow to lose to Treviso away and Connacht at home. AND Leinster to lose on Friday.

With my biased Leinster only hat on I would rather face Scarlets in the RDS than either Munster or Ulster. That however could come back to bite me in the big biased ass with an Ospreys v Scarlets final in the Liberty. Also not impossible.

I don't tink Leinster will put out a strong team like last rear as they struggled the first half as ulster kicked lumps out of them the week before.

Brendan wrote:I don't tink Leinster will put out a strong team like last rear as they struggled the first half as ulster kicked lumps out of them the week before.

Eh? It was BOD who was throwing his fists around if I remember correctly?.....

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

rugbydreamer wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:

roddersm wrote:I think theres a fair chance that Munster could lose their final 2 games and miss out.

ROG isn't available v Scarlets so if they lose that one it could go down to the wire against Ulster.

Are you assuming Ulster can spoil Leinster's provincial grand slam for the 2nd time in 17 years?

If not, Munster and Ulster could take each other out of it and clear a path for the Scarlets.

or am I only dreaming


Yes yes, I know I really am. Still, nice thought that....

Scarlets win their last 2. Ulster lose to Leinster and beat Munster. That's all it takes. Not impossible.

With my Ireland fan hat on I want as many Irish teams in the playoffs as possible.

Likely to be 2 at most, as having 3 would need Glasgow to lose to Treviso away and Connacht at home. AND Leinster to lose on Friday.

With my biased Leinster only hat on I would rather face Scarlets in the RDS than either Munster or Ulster. That however could come back to bite me in the big biased ass with an Ospreys v Scarlets final in the Liberty. Also not impossible.

Now I am definately dreaming...

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:
Scarlets win their last 2. Ulster lose to Leinster and beat Munster. That's all it takes. Not impossible.

With my Ireland fan hat on I want as many Irish teams in the playoffs as possible.

Likely to be 2 at most, as having 3 would need Glasgow to lose to Treviso away and Connacht at home. AND Leinster to lose on Friday.

With my biased Leinster only hat on I would rather face Scarlets in the RDS than either Munster or Ulster. That however could come back to bite me in the big biased ass with an Ospreys v Scarlets final in the Liberty. Also not impossible.

It would be a final at PYS if we went through in 4th and managed to beat Leinster in Dublin.

roddersm wrote:

Brendan wrote:I don't tink Leinster will put out a strong team like last rear as they struggled the first half as ulster kicked lumps out of them the week before.

Eh? It was BOD who was throwing his fists around if I remember correctly?.....

That wasn't the problem
ulster were just to up for it, how dare they be so mean as to try a spoil a ~HC final curatin raiser you were meant to hold the tackle bags for them if I remember but ferris said no and that was when it all went down. That was why Botha had to come to muster wasn't tough enough for ferris so he had him shipped out for Afoa

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:
Scarlets win their last 2. Ulster lose to Leinster and beat Munster. That's all it takes. Not impossible.

With my Ireland fan hat on I want as many Irish teams in the playoffs as possible.

Likely to be 2 at most, as having 3 would need Glasgow to lose to Treviso away and Connacht at home. AND Leinster to lose on Friday.

With my biased Leinster only hat on I would rather face Scarlets in the RDS than either Munster or Ulster. That however could come back to bite me in the big biased ass with an Ospreys v Scarlets final in the Liberty. Also not impossible.

It would be a final at PYS if we went through in 4th and managed to beat Leinster in Dublin.

No, the highest placed team from the league proper in the final, will be the host. Basically the Scarlets won't host the final as the best they can manage is 4th.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:
Scarlets win their last 2. Ulster lose to Leinster and beat Munster. That's all it takes. Not impossible.

With my Ireland fan hat on I want as many Irish teams in the playoffs as possible.

Likely to be 2 at most, as having 3 would need Glasgow to lose to Treviso away and Connacht at home. AND Leinster to lose on Friday.

With my biased Leinster only hat on I would rather face Scarlets in the RDS than either Munster or Ulster. That however could come back to bite me in the big biased ass with an Ospreys v Scarlets final in the Liberty. Also not impossible.

It would be a final at PYS if we went through in 4th and managed to beat Leinster in Dublin.

Nope. Highest placed team remaining gets home advantage. If both away teams win then the 3rd place gets home advantage.

Ospreys will (almost certainly) come 2nd. So the only team they would travel to a final with would be Leinster.

Scarlets could only come 4th (unless some highly unlikely results happen) and so would have an away semi AND final.

My apologies, I thought it went to the winner of 1st V 4th no matter what. I guess it is fairer that it goes to the highest placed side though.

Last year was very exciting with the Scarlets just missing out after hammering the Blues, this year is likely to be as good or better. I think Leinster will play Munster and Ospreys will play the Warriors. If the Scarlets can sneak in to the top 4 they could win it but they made it unlikely not getting a BP last week.

Munster Rugby tweeted from their official account that they've beaten Scarlets 14 times in a row. Is that true?

March 07 in a HC qf is the last time I can remember. Would they have played 14 times since then?

Scarlets were a great side back then. They thumped us in the RDS during the WC that year. 53 28 or something.

Notch wrote:Munster Rugby tweeted from their official account that they've beaten Scarlets 14 times in a row. Is that true?

Yep, Stag likes to bring that one up around Dreamer all the time.

Hardly appropriate for the club's official Twitter account to put out there. I hate those types of records, particularly when it's with my team, Jamie Heaslip will eventually captain a losing side, Italy will eventually beat Ireland in the 6nations etc. constantly referencing it is just going to make it all the sweeter for the opposition when they ram it up ya!