PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

mystiroakey wrote:ousty gonna drop another

maybe not!!

Those saying Padraig could sneak it, remember he won the par 3...

Oosthuizen doesn't look like missing today.

Harrington is putting a good round together.

Be nice if BBC2 could occasionally provide us with an updated leaderboard

EdWoodjr wrote:Be nice if BBC2 could occasionally provide us with an updated leaderboard

you were saying?

I have to say I am lucky enough to have Sky. Their coverage is second to none.

68 for McDowell - Ulster even par today.

poultry you legend!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Poults!!!!

Poults is sneaking along nicely. For once I am hoping he can stay strong on the back nine.

EdWoodjr wrote:Be nice if BBC2 could occasionally provide us with an updated leaderboard

use the masters app...

Its all about the back 9. Great that theres so many in contention...

lol rose going to 5 under!!

It is good that we have an English contingent going into the back 9 with a chance. Having said that Lee just posted a 6 on the 8th. Grrrrrr

mystiroakey wrote:lol rose going to 5 under!!

You're listening to BBC when he's actually 1under going to 3.

yep you are right, they showed his shot in to 15 and had his score at 3 under allready!

And then we see him holing out at 16without the eagle putt!

is the 10th gonna be a factor today- it looks tough!

Sod off Kuchar....

Commentators bang on about if a player scores an eagle he will get some "crystal". Is it a couple of glasses, and what will Oosty get for his albatross?

NedB-H wrote:Sod off Kuchar....

I second that emotion

poults needs to try and post a 10 under- great par to keep him going

Kwini I believe its a crystal goblet for each eagle and from what I've seen on twitter Louis gets a crystal bowl!

I've firmly aligned myself this evening to skys coverage based on the urine poor intervieing technique of Vaughan! Why on earth have the beeb got a cricketer who cannot even get the number of Masters wins by Tiger right even when interviewing him directly is a joke!

Fader wrote:Kwini I believe its a crystal goblet for each eagle and from what I've seen on twitter Louis gets a crystal bowl

Thanks.

Oooh. Hanson hits a patron. Patron down.

Wish they'd start showing the final group in order, keep having to second-guess Hanson's shots from the live Mickelson footage.

Fader wrote:Kwini I believe its a crystal goblet for each eagle and from what I've seen on twitter Louis gets a crystal bowl!

I've firmly aligned myself this evening to skys coverage based on the urine poor intervieing technique of Vaughan! Why on earth have the beeb got a cricketer who cannot even get the number of Masters wins by Tiger right even when interviewing him directly is a joke!

No Lineker this year??

mystiroakey wrote:poults needs to try and post a 10 under- great par to keep him going

I think 8 under will win the jacket outright.

NedB-H wrote:Sod off Kuchar....

I'll forever agree with this statement, ever since he nicked the Barclays off Martin Laird in a play off, with a flukey shot that ended up a tap in birdie. I was waiting on Laird to collect about £2k from an e/w bet at the start of the event .

I'm never wrong wrote:Oooh. Hanson hits a patron. Patron down.

In the states? I smell a lawsuit!

legendkillarV2 wrote:

No Lineker this year??

Salford too far away from Augusta?

Vaughan given the boot? Some other bloke doing the Rory interview!

BBC Golf needs Sue Barker and Claire Baulding!

That was just ridiculous by Hanson!

Nice to see a South African in the hunt on the last day.

I'm never wrong wrote:

legendkillarV2 wrote:

No Lineker this year??

Salford too far away from Augusta?

Wasn't it the ginger ninja chris evans last year!

Sky not doing themselves a favour with Bruce Critchley just saying Alan hanson when trying to refer to Peter Hanson! Think you got the wrong name, wrong sport and wrong nation there Brucie!

I'd like to concur totally with the sod off Kuchar comments, no-one should have a grin like that glued on constantly and if your going to use a belly putter surely use it correctly!

Kuchar making a right hash of it on 9.

hansen is missing everything- however looking better than most of the leaders!!

Poults making a great save on the 12th.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Kuchar making a right hash of it on 9.

Good-oh

legendkillarV2 wrote:Kuchar making a right hash of it on 9.

Those a re sweet words. Let's hope he doesn't come back from that.

Also I'm not fashionista but what does Poulter look like! Just because your shirt has some small insignificant writing in yellow is now excuse for those god awful shoes and belt combo

Kuchar has sodded off.
Isn't it a pair of crystal goblets for an eagle? (Goblet is a very silly word.)

poulter has some amazing touch!

Kuchar made a double bogey. Should've made a 5, but put too much on the putt.

Mickelson driving into trees. Seems to like the wood today!

I like the way that the commentators said Oosty could learn from Bubba's putt, and then Bubba just tapped it 3 inches sideways!!!

Well Oosty just pushed past the hole. Good pace. Cleans up for a par.

Monty thinking Westwood is the best iron player in the world, makes up for his awful putting!

Mickelson making a great second on 9th.

Bubba making an awful drive on the 10th. It sounded and looked ugly.

Got to love the silly woman who just ducked with her hands on her head at 10 as Bubba's ball rolled along the ground! Almost as funny as the guy who fell over trying to look at the ball.

Don't fancy peter hansons putt much!

Poults has a chance at Eagle on the 13th.