PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

Mickleson not making good on the chip on the 9th.

Kuchar missing a birdie chance on 10.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Monty thinking Westwood is the best iron player in the world, makes up for his awful putting!

well he isnt wrong!!

Commentators mucking up there. Poults is on for a birdie. Where on earth is the on course commentator??

Mickelson making par on the 9th. Great save there.

Superb 2nd by Bubba from where it was.

Oosty needing a par putt. Could see his first dropped shot.

We hear that Lee Westwood is a poor putter, and this week has proven that to be the case, but does anyone know of any reliable analysis which has explained why he his so poor?

I just never hear the commentators say; "lee is poor because..."


As for the back nine I still maintain that Louis needs a double for this to get interesting. Or at least two bogies by the 14th.

Mac he only has a two shot lead, that is nothing! He's favourite but it's hardly dull....


Rose doing a commentary stint while still holding the clubhouse lead, eccentric.

McLaren wrote:We hear that Lee Westwood is a poor putter, and this week has proven that to be the case, but does anyone know of any reliable analysis which has explained why he his so poor?

I just never hear the commentators say; "lee is poor because..."


As for the back nine I still maintain that Louis needs a double for this to get interesting. Or at least two bogies by the 14th.

Go back to the final round of Torrey Pines. He was leading going into it and near enough 3 putted his way round the course. I wouldn't think stats highlight the issue. I think guys who play the game on here would have better analysis of his putting and why it is such a weak part of his game. For me he plays too safe around the greens. Be good if he gambled a few times on birdie opportunities.

Westy just looks uncomfortable putting. I think he tried the cheat stick hor a while last year , reckon he will be back trying it before long.

Plus he putted awfully at Turnberry in 2009 too. More aggressive putting, he may have broken his Major duck there.

Hanson/Phil now a hole and a half behind Louis/Bubba. The debacle on the 4th won't have helped but Hanson looks very very slow.

have to remeber that when you hit so many greens your stats with putting are scewed!

lees bigger problem is his chipping- he has days when he putts very well, but many when he doesnt hole em, but that really is no different from many golfers out there.

However lee has the best long game out there and if he had donalds or poulters short game he may have won 10 majors allready!!

NedB-H wrote:Hanson/Phil now a hole and a half behind Louis/Bubba. The debacle on the 4th won't have helped but Hanson looks very very slow.

Ah wait, no they're not. Were a full hole behind earlier and have caught up slightly.

Well this back 9 is going to be fun. Will anyone post a Nicklaus run of birdie eagle birdie birdie.

Poulter with a fine 3rd on the 14th. Another par save.

If Poulter is to win, he needs to attack the 15th. An Eagle just might be what the doctor ordered.

Kuchy Goo with another birdie chance on the 12th. He made par on the 10th and 11th.

Harrington giving himself plenty of chances just not holing the putts. Bubba looks very disappointed with that on the 11th. Don't get yourself down son.

If Westwood lost some weight and had longer front teeth he'd be a ringer for Oosty.

Harrington drives into the trees on the 15th.

Oosty just short of a birdie on the 11th.

Lee with a magnificent 2nd on 14th, within 10ft of the hole. Surely time to take that chance!

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Oosty just short of a birdie on the 11th.

That's more than "just short", work left...

Bubba agonisingly close to a birdie on the 11th.

For all you Kuchar fans.......Makes birdie on the 12th.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Harrington drives into the trees on the 15th.

Oosty just short of a birdie on the 11th.

looked just short didnt it!!

looked alot furthar away second time around?!

Kucher gets his birdie at 12. Is this the beginning?

Decent 71 for Sergio today.

legendkillarV2 wrote:Harrington drives into the trees on the 15th.

Oosty just short of a birdie on the 11th.

I was thinking that last night, or rather that Oosty is Lee's mini twin....except he can putt.

Mickelson nearly in the drink on 11th. Lucky boy!!

we are watching too legend

Yes come on Lee!

Padraig looks back close to his best.
Solid golf and takes an hour over every stroke - almost two holes behind. S'pose Stenson has a part to play in that.

Go on Lee!

Peter Kostis said that Harrington's group in a hole behind?

Who would have ever thought that?

Tester coming back for bubba. That never looked good.

Come on Poults.

I am pretty sure that Justin Rose has now referred to Luis as Charl or Schwartzal a few times now. Anyone else notice this?

Who fancies Bubba's nerves to hold? Not me.

Hanson has been very solid since the first 3 holes, two-putt pars for fun. If he starts to trust his putter he could close out.

McLaren wrote:I am pretty sure that Justin Rose has now referred to Luis as Charl or Schwartzal a few times now. Anyone else notice this?

Yes!

Lee you beauty!

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