PGA Tour: Masters Champion, via the process of elimination: Notes from the Ballwasher

First topic message reminder :

An untraditional set of Notes this week in deference to that ghastly expression, "A tradition unlike any other" which, if we hear it once, we'll hear it one hundred times this week.
Andy North will hopefully feature on this week's ESPN coverage and it is his practice to determine a Major Champion via the process of elimination.
For The Masters this is easy, of course, and some stereotypes lend themselves immediately to the discard pile. So let's get going with the Ballwasher's highly subjective guide through the Masters maze:

1).Some categories can be dispensed with before they even come under Starters Orders:
a).Past Champions over 50. That includes you Freddie (who would probably feature in more categories than any other! And he's so good round here that nobody would be surprised to see his 16th top 15 finish guaranteeing him another trip back even if he wasn't a Past Champion).

b).Amateurs.

c).Aussies. No wins for Australia yet and this crop no better than their predecessors. Sorry Adam, Jason and the rest. Best each way value (top 6 at 1/4 odds from Paddy Power): Ogilvy at 80/1. Geoff hasn't won a full field event since his 2006 US Open gift, but it's not that he doesn't have the talent.

d).Ceremonial golfers. Those who are in the field solely due to performances 2010 or earlier. There goes Padraig, but fancy Stenson to be the best e.w. value here: 150/1.

e).Masters rookies. Including Keegan Bradley. Could quite easily see Kyle Stanley win one of these eventually but poor form recently and putting not up to it.

f).Non-winners on the PGA Tour. There go Rickie Fowler, Simon Dyson and the Fish.

2).PGA Tour members without a win since 2009. Howell, Reavie, Van Pelt, Cabrera and Vijay.

3).Walking wounded and wide bodies. Casey hobbles off with Tiger Woods. Tiger looks good value at 5/1 for the win though, but the early going could be heavy and Augusta National won't permit his Zimmer frame. Darren Clarke has been found wanting in the Augusta mud in years past and he's no fitter now.

4).Navigators. Heavy rain Tuesday night, with more forecast early in the tournament, will stretch the course out. I don't see a Zach Johnson-type win and even in-form players such as Donald and Stricker will have to be perfect (just like Zach was) to win. Furyk, Zach, Toms and Mark Wilson also head for the showers.

5).Temperamentally unsuited. In the absence of Anthony Kim, we can substitute Kevin Na, Sabbatini, Bubba Watson. Ben Crane is too slow and Jonathan Byrd should be on paternity leave. Not sure when a moustache won the Masters so Wagner can also take a hike.

6).More ethnic stereotyping:
a).Asians. No Asian winners yet and I'll take a chance by saying KJ Choi (60/1) won't be the first, this year anyway.
And:
b).Continental Europeans. Lots of love for Hanson but there's a reason he doesn't win much and that's his work on the greens late in tournaments. And I'll controversially add Paul Lawrie to this group. Sorry Scotland. Best bet: Garcia e.w. at 66/1 (altho he could also be in the "temperamentally unsuited" group which is why he won't win).

7).Form just not good enough. Immelman (good e.w. value at 100/1 though), Kuchar, Laird, O'Hair, Palmer, Poulter, Watney, Westwood and Woodland.

8).Assuming the Sub Air system dries the greens out properly, putting will be at a premium and I doubt the putting strokes of these guys will make it through the week unscathed: Haas, Mahan, McDowell, McIlroy, Rose, Snedeker (e.w. value @ 80/1?).

9).South Africans. Why do South Africans succeed here while Aussies come up short? Apart from the winners, Tim Clark, Els (twice), Goosen (twice) and even Sabbatini have runnered up here. Wouldn't be surprised to see Oosthuizen (e.w. value @ 80/1) with a high finish. Sadly for Schwartzel, that's all he'll do too.

10).Right handers. Just to ensure I haven't missed anyone.

Which, ladies and gentlemen, leaves us in the Butler Cabin sometime on Sunday evening (weather permitting) with Charl Schwartzel presenting an XXXL green jacket to Phil Mickelson.


What do I really think?
Tough for me to see beyond Mickelson and South Africa for the win (though McIlroy and Woods are capable of dominating - don't fancy either if it gets really close though, Rory won't keep a lead and Tiger can only come from behind if someone falters badly), with Garcia, Immelman, Ogilvy, Oosthuizen, Sneds and Stenson representing good each way value.

And, as usual, I'd be perfectly happy to be proved totally full of prunes as Lee Westwood wins by a distance.

I think a Mickleson and Rory last two pairing on Sunday would be pretty special, the old maverick Masters expert against the new kid in town. Could be fireworks it it happened.
I've never warmed to Couples the way a lot of people do, no idea why, lovely golf swing though.

Middle aged women throwing themselves at one's feet after one reaches a certain age are very much to be taken advantage of - or is it the other way round??!!

It wasn't long ago we chatted with Freddie at a tournament in Fla. He signed autographs for my family and almost everyone that asked. Among US golf fans, you would be hard pressed to find someone that dislikes him immensely.

On the amusing side, there is a Yogi Berra in him. Here are some of his quotes:
http://www.ingolfwetrust.com/golf-central/2007/12/13/The+Quotable+Freddie+Couples.aspx

I'll qualify my irrational dislike of him by also stating I dislike Mickelson.

All this good guy, glad handing cuts no mustard with me. They give me the impression that were you to say something that offended them they'd get someone else to punch you for fear of tarnishing their image where as "proper" nice guys like Ernie or Bernhard would knock my teeth out and I'd thank them for it!

Langer wouldn't punch you, he'd ask god to strike you down.

Hibbz wrote:I'm sure I'm being entirely unfair in my accusations towards Coupling (if anonymously on a forum isn't the place to do it then where is?) but he just has the look of someone who'd "take advantage" of all the middle aged women that throw themselves at his feet.

Others who've got that same look are Todd Woodbridge of the Woodies tennis fame and Robert Rock who I'm told has more than just the look.

Well, I Freddy and every bone in my 52yr old body resents being referred to as middle aged !

Believe you me, one steely look from Bernhard and you'd be praying either he or God (one and the same in my eyes) would strike you down.

going off pmick recently. used to support him when he was a loser(hadnt won a major yet had countless seconds)

Him getting up early to watch the starters and all the media attention that surronds it baffles me abit...

he just seems overly american these days. I hate shows like american dad and stuff , he reminds of an episode of that!

Yes its all irrational i admit, i do like the way he plays golf though.

We followed his group for a while at a senior event in Sonoma a few years ago. Seemed like a nice guy. Freddy was not a senior then so we followed Bernhardt and nick price in between the wine tasting. Had a great time.

Kwin - Where did you hear that? Very interesting.

Sr,
Where did I hear what? Middle aged women throwing themselves at my feet??

Plunky wrote:We followed his group for a while at a senior event in Sonoma a few years ago. Seemed like a nice guy. Freddy was not a senior then so we followed Bernhardt and nick price in between the wine tasting. Had a great time. :thumbsup:

Be careful Plunky in the same way you resent being called middle aged they may resent being called "Seniors"! They're "Champions" don't you know!

Leff,
Just finished your Yogi / Freddie-isms. You gotta love him . . . . !

[quote="Leff"]

McLaren wrote:
Thanks, I did not know that. About the past champions, I feel there should get 5 or even 10 years exemption, not lifetime. Another option would be to have a separate exhibition sort of tournament for them (those like Lyle and Stadler) prior to the main event unless they are at least in the top hundred.

So a guy like Fred Couples would not be eligible? BTW, he is the co-leader after 36 holes.

Tom Watson would not be eligible at the Open Championship? BTW, he lost in a playoff , at age 59!!

lol i think donald has eagled the third!!!!

sweet must have holed a shot!!
back to 2 over par

Short par 4 - must have holed a wedge. I love it.

FTR, Couples is ranked well into the 300's

And LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUKE just eagled #2


edited: NINJAed! on the LUKE post

IF he can get to 3 under- maybe - just maybe!

PS: Freddie is in the field this week on the merit of a Top 15 finish last year, not merely as a Past Champion. 6th also in 2010.

No-one making a run yet today . . . . .

Hibz
If you are not middleaged by 52 do you expect to live past 103?

Ooh, Upward mobility from Kaymer and Woods, the only ones on the course at +2 . . . . until Donald starts to make up for yesterday's utter shambles on #8.

GPB wrote:
Thanks, I did not know that. About the past champions, I feel there should get 5 or even 10 years exemption, not lifetime. Another option would be to have a separate exhibition sort of tournament for them (those like Lyle and Stadler) prior to the main event unless they are at least in the top hundred.

So a guy like Fred Couples would not be eligible? BTW, he is the co-leader after 36 holes.

Tom Watson would not be eligible at the Open Championship? BTW, he lost in a playoff , at age 59!![/quote]

Crenshaw, Langer, Lyle, Olazabal, Mize, Stadler, Watson, Weir, and Woosnam made it on the basis of their past winner status only. All nine missed the cut.

Ooh,
More upward mobility by Kaymer and Woods as they both reach +1.

Luuuuuuuuuuuuuke!

Kwin - That's a given.

I was referring to Tiger's caddie leaving him.

Lightening will need to strike for Tiger to get back into this tournament. Specifically onto Rory!

Doon the Water wrote:Hibz
If you are not middleaged by 52 do you expect to live past 103?

Personally I like to think of "middle age" as a state of mind as opposed to being defined by mere numbers!

Sr,
I have my own rumour mill, totally unencumbered by any factual basis whatsoever.
Nothing wrong with idle (not idol) speculation.

(A well known cricketer was born in a place called Idle in Yorkshire, known throughout his career as Born Idle. And that's a fact!)

I should have left you with Tiger in the fgame . . . . .

Would be good to see Tiger make some sort of a fist of it. What do we expect the leading score to be by the end of the day? I'll go for -8 as the temps are up, wind down. Everything's drying out, so hopefully fewer mud balls but of course those slicker greens to contend with.

So I reckon for Tiger to be in contention tomorrow, he's going to need to get to -4 or -5 today which is a very low score considering there are likely to be a couple of bogeys thrown in there too (3 in R1, 5 in R2).

thedamned3putt wrote:Would be good to see Tiger make some sort of a fist of it. What do we expect the leading score to be by the end of the day? I'll go for -8 as the temps are up, wind down. Everything's drying out, so hopefully fewer mud balls but of course those slicker greens to contend with.

So I reckon for Tiger to be in contention tomorrow, he's going to need to get to -4 or -5 today which is a very low score considering there are likely to be a couple of bogeys thrown in there too (3 in R1, 5 in R2).

Oh, and there's one of those bogeys...

Watch Sang-Moon Bae rising....

Red Button is live on Sky, but only showing highlights at the moment.

I'm never wrong wrote:Red Button is live on Sky, but only showing highlights at the moment.

BBC have had Amen Corner for half an hour

This is Masters CBS live. Maybe limited to US.

http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/masters-live?ttag=ml12_sem_goog_0040

NedB-H wrote:
BBC have had Amen Corner for half an hour

I'm obliged

"...PS: Freddie is in the field this week on the merit of a Top 15 finish last year, not merely as a Past Champion. 6th also in 2010...."

But how did Fred get in the field in 2010? By past Champion status. He missed the cut in 2009.

If the past champion status was taken away, he would have never had the opportunity to play in 2010. And would not be playing in 2012.

Bae and Sneds at -2 still the low on the course. Tough conditions again or just no-one doing much?

Are the guys writing the Beeb's livetext just watching the official leaderboard, like we are? No comment on any actual golf, conditions, etc, just scores.

thedamned3putt wrote:Are the guys writing the Beeb's livetext just watching the official leaderboard, like we are? No comment on any actual golf, conditions, etc, just scores.

They've been making comments the past two days about being in Salford, and I'm pretty sure there's no TV stream they could tap in to, so yes.

Aren't those outside the US able to watch Masters live here?

http://www.cbssports.com/video/player/masters-live?ttag=ml12_sem_goog_0040

GPB wrote:"...PS: Freddie is in the field this week on the merit of a Top 15 finish last year, not merely as a Past Champion. 6th also in 2010...."

But how did Fred get in the field in 2010? By past Champion status. He missed the cut in 2009.

If the past champion status was taken away, he would have never had the opportunity to play in 2010. And would not be playing in 2012.

Freddie qualified for 2012 on two counts:
1) past Masters title
2) among the top 16 in Masters 2011

That's what GPB is saying. If he didn't have Champion status, he wouldn't be playing this year. He wouldn't have qualified in previous years on performance alone.

The CBS link is US only. I'm assuming it's Amen Corner? We've got that on the BBC website, just no overall coverage for another 3 hours.

Re: Couples, I think the point is that he'd have run out of exemptions by now were it not for his past champion status. Top 15 finishes in 2010 and 2011 got him in to 2011 and 2012 respectively, but he only got in to 2010 in the first place by being a past champion. Not sure if that's correct, mind...

Rickie Fowler's feeble beard effort reminds me of someone, but I can't think who.

I'm never wrong wrote:That's what GPB is saying. If he didn't have Champion status, he wouldn't be playing this year. He wouldn't have qualified in previous years on performance alone.

Exactly, thank you,

Freddie would have never played in the 2010 Masters, if it were not because of Past Champion status.

I really don't understand any criticism of The Masters for inviting Past Champions unless you also include The Open and PGA Championship for the same thing.

Apart from the notion that the real no-hopers should receive a Red Card, I've nothing against blokes like Couples and Watson playing here given their proven competitiveness, or even the less competitive ones until they really struggle.

Wouldn't Freddie have qualified on the basis of finishing in the top 16 of the 2011 Masters? Maybe you will say he qualified in 2011 on the basis of his past champ status; I don't know if that was the case.

Live CBS webcast in the US is of excellent quality.

Ooh. Luke doubles 13.

I have no problem with the likes of Couples and Watson. Those like Lyle and Stadler should be politely told to keep out. After all, Fuzzy Z is not being an unwanted pest.

kwinigolfer wrote:Apart from the notion that the real no-hopers should receive a Red Card, I've nothing against blokes like Couples and Watson playing here given their proven competitiveness, or even the less competitive ones until they really struggle.

How do you know when past champions are going to play well? I've no objection if they are competitive either, but could you have predicted Couples this year and Watson in the Open?

Leff wrote:Wouldn't Freddie have qualified on the basis of finishing in the top 16 of the 2011 Masters? Maybe you will say he qualified in 2011 on the basis of his past champ status; I don't know if that was the case.

Yes, exactly, no one's disputing that he got in from the "top 16" category, for both the past two years, but after he MCed in '09 he wouldn't have got in to 2010 were he not a past champ. Anyway, I'm only playing devil's advocate, I'm with Kwini and have no problem with the past champs being here.

For some reason our Amen Corner shots still have CBS commentators, getting in their regular dig at Donald, apparently they think McIlroy is the real No 1 regardless of what the OWGR think. That double won't help mind.


Van Pelt leads in driving distance for the week? Eh?

Sang-Moon Bae is the today's brightest star so far.