Nadal's Slippery Slope

First topic message reminder :

Recently a thread was created based on Fed's chance to regain a #2 ranking with maybe a view to getting to number 1. It has been argued that Fed woudl not care much as his goal was winning slams 1st and foremost.

However I am pretty sure Nadal cares a lot about that number 2 spot, more than Fed in fact. He knows that surrendering that number 2 ranking would expose him sooner to Djoko which in turn coudl seriously affect his ranking points. Thanks to points accumulated on clay Nadal has avoided for years (2005-2011) to meet Federer in semis, giving for instance the chance many times to avoid guys like Nalbandian and Davydenko early in slams and tournaments when those guys were at number 3 or 4 and a threat. If he starts to lose in semis versus Djoko, he might find it very hard to hold on to his number 3 ranking and then other players might start to smell blood as Nadal can have tough matches in early rounds. From there might come the possibility of Nadal even meeting Djoko, Murray, Davydenko in earlier rounds even (1/4F) everytime affecting his ranking and possibly his motivation. Remember, he is making hard work of every win and that motivation, tenacity so essential to his game might finally wane. It will of course give him tough physical matches earlier in the tournaments reducing his chance to do well in the final stages.

Of course this clay season is going to be key for him to remain at number 2 but imo it's just a question of months before he starts sliding seriously, especially if he cannot accumulate enough points on clay which has been the surface that saved him all those years of much lower ranking. I remember once that taking his clay points away was taking him to number 8 or below in the ranking. I am pretty sure he will share the clay points this spring and that could simply be the beginning of the end for Nadal. He is aware of that more than anybody and withdrawing from MIami was a smart move. Fighting hard versus Murray and Djoko while not being sure to win was never going to be a good idea when considering what is at stake in the next few weeks. Rafa fans hold on tight to your seatbelts, it could be a tough ride from now.

You read it here first!

ever heard the saying counting your chickens before they are hatched

No, but i heard of: "Chicken one day, feathers the next"

Tenez wrote:

lydian wrote:Its well known the French (not just Parisians) hate the Spanish...hence what we see on here, and at RG.

I am afraid, this is plain wrong. No more than any nation would have prejudices against all its neighbouring countryies. France has many neighbours and those they tease most are the francophone ones. We have plenty of spanish people living in South of France and there is never any friction. We have supported Moya, Ferrero, Berasategui and Higueras and many other players.

Llodra is actually of Spanish origin and is very well integrated.

Spanish and Portuguese dislike each other much more....or worse Catalan versus the rest of Spain.

French and Germans, Swiss and Begians get on fine....but the Spanish...lol, you can't fool me Tenez, I have relatives in both France and Spain and have worked extensively in both countries....I have heard from the horses mouths the dislike that exists. Why else does Nadal get the reception he does at RG, and don't tell me it's his style of play. Why else did the French lampoon him with that sketch you so loved about him filling his car with his own urine, etc, and other magazine/papers have chased him...its always the French media. Then the attack on all spanish sportsmen by Yannick Noah. Yeah, the French just love the Spaniards don't they...

You are mixing things Lydian. Everybody have suspicions about the Spanish, all nations question it like we questioned the RDA swimmers or now some Chinese athletes but that's a completely different matter. All countries have grudges about their neighbours and there is no more of it between France and Spain than France v Germany and certainly less than Spain v Portugal, or even Catalonia v Castille.

Spain is of our 5 or 6 neigbouring countries and we cannot care more about them than any other so again you are plain wrong. I am not saying we are great friends just normal neighbouring relations. The fact is that we do not have an expression for Spaniards like we have for Germans or Italians for instance such as frogs, roostbeef, square heads, ritals, etc...).

As a Rafa fan you want to make it a national issue but the fact is the French love their tennis and never liked the boring game of WIlander, Chang, Bruguera and now Nadal. But we had nothing against Moya or Corretja for instance.

The Spanish love their tennis too....hence their current success. It's not merely a national issue but I've always found your long-standing and intense, for it cannot be described as anything but intense, dislike of Nadal somewhat curious...
But I'm not buying the platitudes, it seems to me the French media love to poke fun at the Spanish...and not just Nadal.
But hey, back to OP...let's see what he dos in the clay season before we say he's on a slippery slope. You'll be no doubt chuffed to hear he's been having PRP this week to accelerate recovery and that he doesn't believe the injury is like 2009, that the tendons are still strong...there's still some battling life left in 'old' guy yet and he's yet to hit top tennis form yet and yet is still going deep in tournaments despite being nowhere near his best.

Glad to see Gav's brought this back.

Always room for well written strong opinion!

Agreed. I missed what led to its disappearance, but glad to see it back.

I second (or third ) the above!

Now that I think about it. Where has Tenez gone?

Too busy having fun elsewhere to post, maybe!

Since the thread is back, my chance to air a brief on-topic opinion (for which, I've no doubt, lots of folk have been waiting anxiously ....)

I personally don't for one moment believe that Nadal is on a slope - slippery or otherwise. His unhappy run of defeats last year, and continuing into this at the AO, has naturally dented his self-confidence and made him question his own, hitherto successful, tactics. But he's just too good a player to fall down the rankings to any serious degree.

Let's not forget that it is only really Novak who has managed to stop Rafa consistently. It will require a combination of Novak maintaining what in 2011 was mostly near-perfect form, together with no improvement at all in Rafa's game for him (ie Rafa) to have a 'bad' season. I happen to think he will in fact do well during the business end of 2012.

I guess it's the almost surreal pattern of injuries (alleged or otherwise), spells of time off, followed by miraculous recovery that leads to so many doubts and questions as to Rafa's future prospects. But for me he will always be a threat in any big tournament - and not least at the Slams for which he invariably seems able to find either his best form, or at least a standard just good enough to somehow get through to the Final.

The talk of some sort of tennis demise for Rafa always brings to mind that great line of Mark Twain (IIRC...?) "The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated "

Have to agree with Lags and Lydia, I can't say that Nadal is all of a sudden going to see a big drop off in his rankings. Other players are not beating him with ever increasing frequency it is just one guy that has his number. I mean he has had every other big rivals number the last two years except one Novak Djokovic. Although I will say this that if i was Nadal or a member of his camp I would be feeling a lot of pressure right now. He needs to be at his best and healthy in the clay court season. If by chance he has a poorer than expected clay court campaign then he will drop a bit in the rankings. A poor clay court season could see him fall to 3 or 4, but I can't see much more of a drop than that.

Given his attritional style of play, age is bound to catch up Nadal earlier than Federer. When will that decline begin...who knows? But a repeat of 2011 with Djokovic will probably mark the start of his downward spiral. FO will be the big test for Nadal.

10IS wrote:Given his attritional style of play, age is bound to catch up Nadal earlier than Federer. When will that decline begin...who knows? But a repeat of 2011 with Djokovic will probably mark the start of his downward spiral. FO will be the big test for Nadal.

I think that's right, but Nadal started earlier, relatively, than Federer. If he finishes in the top 2 this year he will equal the record for consecutive years, so he has already demonstrated longevity. It would be truly extraordinary if he could carry on at the top until he is 30, say, given how good he was as a teenager.

For me, the real question is Nadal's vanity, i.e. is he prepared to play at his best level without winning big titles and whether he believes he can still win them like Federer at the moment.

Tenez's point was that shoud hs ranking slip beyond 2, which it would only require a moderately successful clay & grass season to do, he may start meeting Djokovic in semis and see a haemorrhaging of points?

He was saying that staying 2 is critical to him as its keeping him clear of the one fitter guy who can say in rallies with him (who therefore has his number).

Yes but BB even if Nadal was meeting Djokovic more in semis (but not all semi's, it would be 50/50 chance) and losing he would still more than likely be around the top spots as other guys arent beating him routinely to speak to Socal's point. If you had a player "only" getting to SFs in most events through the year you can bet he'll still be up at 2-3 in the rankings.

Good points there bogbrush

Whilst I still stand by my earlier thoughts (ie IMO Rafa is not on a slippery slope , but is very likely to have a strong season, and with more good years ahead of him) it's interesting to speculate just how things might pan out if he did slip - even marginally - from his current number 2.

His true aim of course must surely be to regain Number One. But we know that Novak is equally determined to hang on to it.

If Rafa can't get back the top spot within say 12 months from now, it will only get tougher & tougher for him. History shows that very few players (having lost the top spot) manage to regain it once they hit their late twenties.

Rafa ranks at 7 on the list of overall total weeks spent as World No. 1 ; and only in 10th place in terms of consecutive weeks*. Not really the sort of legacy he would wish to end with, regardless of the many other sparkling achievements making up his highly impressive CV.

*ie since introduction of official ranking system

lydian wrote:Yes but BB even if Nadal was meeting Djokovic more in semis (but not all semi's, it would be 50/50 chance) and losing he would still more than likely be around the top spots as other guys arent beating him routinely to speak to Socal's point. If you had a player "only" getting to SFs in most events through the year you can bet he'll still be up at 2-3 in the rankings.

Tenez didn't say that. He said having a guarantee to avoid the guy with the horror match up for him is a huge support. Imagine if Rafa met Nole in every clay semi? You'd probably find Federer out scoring him on clay.

I agree it doesn't see him out of the top 4 - only a general decline can do that, especially with the parlous state of the #5 and below- but it would be a kick to the nuts for hopes of regaining #1 and winning Slams. Right now he has a 50/50 chance of seeing Nole & Fed in the opposite half; if he was #3 and Federer #2 he would have to beat both himself (assuming neither is beaten by another player).

bogbrush wrote:

lydian wrote:Yes but BB even if Nadal was meeting Djokovic more in semis (but not all semi's, it would be 50/50 chance) and losing he would still more than likely be around the top spots as other guys arent beating him routinely to speak to Socal's point. If you had a player "only" getting to SFs in most events through the year you can bet he'll still be up at 2-3 in the rankings.

Tenez didn't say that. He said having a guarantee to avoid the guy with the horror match up for him is a huge support. Imagine if Rafa met Nole in every clay semi? You'd probably find Federer out scoring him on clay.

I agree it doesn't see him out of the top 4 - only a general decline can do that, especially with the parlous state of the #5 and below- but it would be a kick to the nuts for hopes of regaining #1 and winning Slams. Right now he has a 50/50 chance of seeing Nole & Fed in the opposite half; if he was #3 and Federer #2 he would have to beat both himself (assuming neither is beaten by another player).

50/50, never! Fed is in Nole's half at RG GUARANTEED!

Positively 4th Street wrote:

10IS wrote:Given his attritional style of play, age is bound to catch up Nadal earlier than Federer. When will that decline begin...who knows? But a repeat of 2011 with Djokovic will probably mark the start of his downward spiral. FO will be the big test for Nadal.

I think that's right, but Nadal started earlier, relatively, than Federer. If he finishes in the top 2 this year he will equal the record for consecutive years, so he has already demonstrated longevity. It would be truly extraordinary if he could carry on at the top until he is 30, say, given how good he was as a teenager.

Agree. In terms of achievements, Nadal does not have much to prove. His longevity, clay records and not too shabby records outside clay have already put in the list of all time greats.

Still, I am sure he would love to get as close to 16 as possible, and then there is Djoker.

Beat Djoker and win more slams means more motivation to chase slam glory. Fail to beat Djoker and stagnate at Semis and Finals of grand slams. And so far nothing to suggest Nadal can beat Djoker unless Djoker's level drops. Can't wait for FO to see if Rafa can defend FO.

10IS wrote:Agree. In terms of achievements, Nadal does not have much to prove. His longevity, clay records and not too shabby records outside clay have already put in the list of all time greats.

Still, I am sure he would love to get as close to 16 as possible, and then there is Djoker.

Beat Djoker and win more slams means more motivation to chase slam glory. Fail to beat Djoker and stagnate at Semis and Finals of grand slams. And so far nothing to suggest Nadal can beat Djoker unless Djoker's level drops. Can't wait for FO to see if Rafa can defend FO.

Good points

The next few months will be very interesting. If Nadal can hang on to the FO then he can go to Wimbledon emboldened and almost without anything to lose. Fail on the clay and it does not look good.

This, of course, is inextricably linked to Djokovic. At the moment Nadal is reliant on someone else knocking out Djokovic as, I agree, there is nothing, or little, to suggest that he can do it himself. His place in history is secure, but it would certainly be added to if he can solve the biggest problem he's faced. The alternative is that Djokovic has, in a sense, ended his career in terms of big titles.

Tenez wrote:

Of course this clay season is going to be key for him to remain at number 2 but imo it's just a question of months before he starts sliding seriously, especially if he cannot accumulate enough points on clay which has been the surface that saved him all those years of much lower ranking. I remember once that taking his clay points away was taking him to number 8 or below in the ranking. I am pretty sure he will share the clay points this spring and that could simply be the beginning of the end for Nadal.

I'm not sure if you're reading this Tenez, but:

Sorry... couldn't resist

Slipping
And
Sliding

I miss Tenez and BB. It was always fascinating to see their remake of "8 million ways to die", re-titled "8 million ways to diss Rafa"

They're both on another forum now, I actually joined before coming to the realisation why do I want to take part in debates which are conditioned by agreeing that Federer is a god

banbrotam wrote:I miss Tenez and BB. It was always fascinating to see their remake of "8 million ways to die", re-titled "8 million ways to diss Rafa"

But you can't deny their creativity.

It Must Be Love wrote:Slipping
And
Sliding

Are you still hanging out at OTF?

banbrotam wrote:I miss Tenez and BB. It was always fascinating to see their remake of "8 million ways to die", re-titled "8 million ways to diss Rafa"

They're both on another forum now, I actually joined before coming to the realisation why do I want to take part in debates which are conditioned by agreeing that Federer is a god

I can hear them both grinding their teeth at yesterdays result leaving all over their faces since their God will never achieve what Rafa has done

Haddie-nuff wrote:

banbrotam wrote:I miss Tenez and BB. It was always fascinating to see their remake of "8 million ways to die", re-titled "8 million ways to diss Rafa"

They're both on another forum now, I actually joined before coming to the realisation why do I want to take part in debates which are conditioned by agreeing that Federer is a god

I can hear them both grinding their teeth at yesterdays result leaving all over their faces since their God  will never achieve what Rafa has done

I can see where you are coming from - but don't forget one of the lessons in life Nadal can teach us all - when the struggle on Court is over, dignity in victory and defeat.

A lesson in life for us ALL.. Rafa has shown humility.. something that few do these days

Nadal must be skiing- because this slippery slope is exhilarating!

It seems that most of our Rafa fans only drop by the forum to make a brief celebratory cameo post these days...but don't really get involved in much discussion. Hope you are well doing well anyhow.

Nothing much to discuss HB he has nothing left to prove.  So he may not ever be  THE G.O.A.T... but he is so close it makes no difference. To his fans he always will be.

I wont deny that I prefer posting when nadal is doing well than when he is in a low moment

Henman Bill wrote:It seems that most of our Rafa fans only drop by the forum to make a brief celebratory cameo post these days...but don't really get involved in much discussion. Hope you are well doing well anyhow.

Hope you're doing well too HB, and btw I do remember in 2011 when you defended me against some aggressive posters on MTL, so I do owe you one. 
Apologies for not posting much here, but I just think maybe certain types of posters aren't right for certain forums; I respect the direction the admin and mods wanted to take 606v2 so decided to not post here as much. This thread though is excellent, makes me laugh.

It Must Be Love wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:It seems that most of our Rafa fans only drop by the forum to make a brief celebratory cameo post these days...but don't really get involved in much discussion. Hope you are well doing well anyhow.

Hope you're doing well too HB, and btw I do remember in 2011 when you defended me against some aggressive posters on MTL, so I do owe you one. 
Apologies for not posting much here, but I just think maybe certain types of posters aren't right for certain forums; I respect the direction the admin and mods wanted to take 606v2 so decided to not post here as much. This thread though is excellent, makes me laugh.

What direction was being aimed for? Does seem as though, well-intended although I'm sure it was, the effect has been to stop those posters who used to provide interesting topics from posting. Maybe lessons have now been learned and you will be welcomed back?

IMBL, good to hear from you anyway, I hope you are doing well.

10 years on

Tenez wrote:


Of course this clay season is going to be key for him to remain at number 2 but imo it's just a question of months before he starts sliding seriously, especially if he cannot accumulate enough points on clay which has been the surface that saved him all those years of much lower ranking. I remember once that taking his clay points away was taking him to number 8 or below in the ranking. I am pretty sure he will share the clay points this spring and that could simply be the beginning of the end for Nadal.
---------------------------------------------------------------

10 yrs ago.. how time flies when your laughing your socks off.. 21 and counting.... Somebody tell Tenez TESCOS have sour grapes on offer!!!!

Nice to see that Rafa brings a lot of the old posters back to 606.

We sometimes struggle to generate interest on this site so the more posters the merrier.

HI SF nice to know some of the old posters are still here.

I couldnt resist the temptation (by invite from V2) to post on this thread.. When Tenez (my old adversary) and I so often locked horns.. and the banter I had with Bogbrush.. I wanted my time for a gloat and I got it... Rafa is an inspiration whether you are a fan of his or not. Many a match Ive watched and seen him win BUT NEVER has he made me more proud of him than this achievement.. Not because it was No 21 but the way he came back from injury again and in such style What a match !!! Congratulations Rafa

Must say I've warmed to Rafa over the years. Even those who in the past, and even now, don't like him can acknowledge what a fighter he is and how we always gives 100%.

Reckon he's more pleased with this Slam title than any of the others and it's one that's perhaps more celebrated by those who follow the sport than many of his previous GS triumphs.

This could be due to Federer being out of the picture at the moment. Also, Djoko has not always been everyone's cup of tea and his recent Vaxgate or Visagate (or whatever you call it) has hardly led to his getting new followers.

Rafa ain't done yet so keep posting....

I know what you mean I have warmed to Roger too over the past few years.. as he has mellowed and so have I !!!
Not least of all because of his close friendship with Rafa and I so admired that classy message he sent in aknowledgement of Rafa's achievement.. a gentleman and sportsman. I wont get on the subject of Novax I have little time for him as a person his tennis is a different matter. And, as you rightly say his actions and attitude have done him no favours.
Not sure whether Rafa will be competing in Miami he seemed a little unsure ... I think the AO has had some affect on him physically.... However you can be assured Ill be beating the drum when he plays again. Bye for now

Nadal has broken so many ideas people had about him...
he exploded in 2005 as a great claycourter, but he was not considered an all round player
2006, first wimbledon final was a fluke (and Federer had him easily)
2007, Second wimbledon final in a row and people started to dislike that annoying spaniard that was frustrating Roger on clay and was pushing him in other surfaces
2008 he wins RG and Wimbledon and gets semifinals in both hardocurt slams
2009 first hardcourt slam
2010 wins Usopen and completes grandslam

by that time he cannot be considered just a claycourter, but people find a reason: slow hardcourts and slow grass

anyway he is 24 and he is expected to retire sooner than later, due to his style of play.

2011 Novak explodes and beats him everywhere, Now that Federer seems to be fading, Novak looks bigger than Nadal in every surface and very close if not better than the spaniard on clay

2013 he comes back from injury and wins RG and USopen, but Wimbledon looks like something from a past life for Nadal.

2015-2016 most people agree that Nadal´s success is coming to an end

he has won 7 slams after that

naxroy wrote:Nadal has broken so many ideas people had about him...
he exploded in 2005 as a great claycourter, but he was not considered an all round player
2006, first wimbledon final was a fluke (and Federer had him easily)
2007, Second wimbledon final in a row and people started to dislike that annoying spaniard that was frustrating Roger on clay and was pushing him in other surfaces
2008 he wins RG and Wimbledon and gets semifinals in both hardocurt slams
2009 first hardcourt slam
2010 wins Usopen and completes grandslam

by that time he cannot be considered just a claycourter, but people find a reason: slow hardcourts and slow grass

anyway he is 24 and he is expected to retire sooner than later, due to his style of play.

2011 Novak explodes and beats him everywhere, Now that Federer seems to be fading, Novak looks bigger than Nadal in every surface and very close if not better than the spaniard on clay

2013 he comes back from injury and wins RG and USopen, but Wimbledon looks like something from a past life for Nadal.

2015-2016 most people agree that Nadal´s success is coming to an end

he has won 7 slams after that

This is somewhat true though especially on grass, it's not necessarily a criticism but it's a relevant point to make.

I dont know how slow wimbledon is, but I see Nadal winning 13 RG and just 2 wimbledons, so I understand those courts must be radically different.

One could have doubts regarding Usopen, because Nadal has won 4, but back in Australia in 2009 I remember people saying Australia was really slow but he would never win the Usopen because that was real fast court... funny

I think it is raquets and strings what has changed more, rather than surfaces

The grass at Wimbledon is certainly slower than in Sampras's time, and the ball bounces significantly higher, plus the balls used are a bit slower. However, clearly a grass court is still quite significantly different from a clay court - the changes to the grass have meant that a clay court style baseline game can be transferred much more effectively than maybe 25 years ago, but there is still some degree of specialisation (i.e. compare Federer's and Nadal's records at Wimbledon and RG, and who else does well where).

Clearly, playing conditions, including raquet and string tech, have narrowed the range of effective tactics and made it easier for the best players to dominate through an entire year across the range of surfaces, but that really doesn't explain the incredible longevity of the big 3, indeed makes it even more impressive that they have had less down time than during the times of greater specialisation.

Longevity is improving in most sports so that aspect is easily explainable, better technology and a better understanding of what causes injuries. That isn't to take away from their career achievements but winning 20 slams just simply wasn't possible in previous eras.

Soul Requiem wrote:Longevity is improving in most sports so that aspect is easily explainable, better technology and a better understanding of what causes injuries. That isn't to take away from their career achievements but winning 20 slams just simply wasn't possible in previous eras.

this is a very good point, but we will see how long are other players careers from now on (thiem, medvedev, zverev, tsitsipas, shapovalov, Alisassime, Alcaraz....)



or how the big three compare to players just prior to their times:
Davidenko, Blake, Ljubicic, Roddick, Nalbandian, Fernando Gonzalez, Ferrero, Soderling, Almagro, Youznhy, Ferrer...