The race for #1

First topic message reminder :

I just took a look at the rankings and realised that today isn't just about taking #2, it's about closing to less than 2000 points on #1.

Federer has one event left between now and post-USO where he defends significantly more points than Djokovic. The Slams will be key, but he's so far ahead in the race from the day after the USO that it's becoming a serious possibility.

The mood will change of course if he loses today, but arguably it shouldn't; it's an overstatement to say its in his hands but with the Rome draw offering further encouragement it does look like he has a serious shot at it.

Fitness is the key.

Patriotism.

Yeah, this has led to so many good things in Serbia & Croatia in the last 20 years hasn't it?

You'd think people would have started to outgrow this tribal idiocy by now wouldn't you?

Today is the first day of Ratko Mladic's trial for war crimes.

I feel very sorry for all peace-loving Serbs who may be unfairly tarred with the brush of some of the awful things done by evil people who they no doubt abhor just as much as I do. Equally, I think that there is limited scope for making a big deal out of Serbian national pride right now, just as I feel the same about excessive 'patriotism' in the name of any country - particularly in the context of an individual sport.

barrystar - well-made points there (+ bogbrush also). And a clear reminder of just why 'excessive' patriotism, as you put it, has no place on a tennis forum such as this.

Well I happen to think all your points pale into insignificance compared to the decline of the Serbian math squad.

After a promising 10th place in 2010 the team sank like a stone and could only scrape in at 25th in 2011. The Serbian people and Novak in particular are no doubt mourning their much weakened mathematical ability and rumour has it that Nole has outsourced his timetabling this year to a Chinese team as they "are better at it".

Who knows what this year will bring? Exciting times in the world of international competitive maths...

Good posts, I actually think Novak has done a pretty good job of defending his position in the rankings lucius and I don't think his situation is as dire as you make it. If we have seen any type of trend this year it is that points are being more evenly disbursed among the top 3. It will probably take 11000 points to be year end #1. So far with 3 slams, the WTF, the olympics and 5 masters remaining Djokovic has attained around 4000 points. He is ahead of that pace right now. If he wins one of the next 2 slams and with as consistent as he has been in at least making the semis of everything he enters it becomes a virtual lock on the year end #1. The picture changes dramatically if he fails in all three of the following slams. But based on his track record of the last 18 months or so I give him a good chance of winning one of the next 3. I still think out of all three of the top guys Novak is a significant favorite to finish the season as year end #1.

reckoner wrote:Well I happen to think all your points pale into insignificance compared to the decline of the Serbian math squad.

After a promising 10th place in 2010 the team sank like a stone and could only scrape in at 25th in 2011. The Serbian people and Novak in particular are no doubt mourning their much weakened mathematical ability and rumour has it that Nole has outsourced his timetabling this year to a Chinese team as they "are better at it".

Who knows what this year will bring? Exciting times in the world of international competitive maths...

We did not have as high math rating as previously, but still in 2011 better then Swiss and considering the size of our country we should be No.1.
Even among girls mathematicians we are better then Swiss (see bottom page):
https://registration.egmo2012.org.uk/person?@template=scoreboard
Do you need scoreboard of any other intellectual sport? I would not ask for more if I were you.
Bonus question: Do you know who was Einsteine's wife and who did the math for his theories?

@lags72
"'excessive' patriotism"???
Except that you are doing exactly that but in a more wrapped way.

Again, I was just pointing out what is one of Nole's major motivations for staying at #1 position. If in your society being individualistic is what is desired than you may not understand these other feelings. Since tennis is played mainly by people from rich and powerful countries, many players do not need to express their patriotism as much as we need.

I have no intention in getting into politics here, but we are sure proud people and for sure we see the reality differently. Go ahead and take what your media is serving you, I refuse it.

@laverfan
Regarding our Ana and Jelena, what to say about women's tennis today? Kind of sad and mediocre. Great to have Ana and Jelena, just like Viktor and Janko, but they have more interests in other things then being dedicated to tennis. Anna and the Golfer; Jelena and Shopping; Janko DJ-ing. Of all of them in my opinion only Janko has talent though he is missing a bit of hight.

Oh for Gods sake, are you serious about this Maths nonsense?

Patriotism is absurd. To claim allegiance to people you don't know and have no more connection to than geography is weird. This kind of weirdness costs lives, I wish humans would grow up and dump that along with belief in superstitions.

Oh dear.

Parabola : I sense that you might wish to carefully re-read your own posts (and those of others) before actually clicking the 'send' button.

Rarely have I seen such paranoia leading to wholly unsubstantiated assumptions and/or allegations in relation to perceived comments by fellow posters. I say 'perceived' because so many of your assumptions bear absolutely no relation to what has actually been written.

Much better to stick to tennis and tennis players rather than trying to create needless conflict and a bunker mentality in virtually every post. Just accept the fact that people will not always agree with you, even though many of us (myself included) have a perfectly healthy respect and admiration for Novak.

I must say I can make absolutely no sense whatever of all the Maths waffle, least of all any possible connection to the ATP tour ; obviously way too advanced for me !

@ Parabola, we like Nole and have no hatred for him like you have for Federer.

Ordinarily socal1976, I'd agree, winning over 4, 000 points would be a respectable amount so far this season. However, the entire reason why it's important he accumulates more points early on in the season is because he usually has a poor run @ the end of the season. In the last 7 years he's won only 1 title in the last 3 Masters 1000 tournaments. Let's also include the WTF, which he's taken part in the last 5 years, again, just one title. It's this lack of titles, which also takes in last year, which is why he needs to build his points total more, earlier on in the season. Dropping almost 2, 000 hasn't cost him because he's so far ahead of the rest.

How he does in the slams is clearly vital to his chances of retaining No.1, that much is certain. However, out of the 3 Masters 1000 titles he was defending, he's lost 2 and he could lose this week's too. Sure he gets points for getting to the semis or finals, but these are almost half as much if you've won the tournament before (like he has). Your post seems to forget that Djokovic already possesses the points for holding Wimbledon & the USO and his lead is only 1, 750 as it is. Winning Rome will certainly protect him if he loses either Wimbledon or USO, but if he loses Rome too, there's a good chance he'll be replaced as No.1 sooner rather than later. End of year No.1 is a different matter altogether because most of the year's points haven't been allocated yet, once the Olympics is over we'll have a better idea about that.

Going back to Luciusman's review - having had a look myself it seems quite possible/likely that the 'battle figure' for No. 1 after the US Open will be around a points tally of 11,500 and that's within range of all the top 3 without outlandish predictions.

It may well be that Federer is in a situation where he knows that flying out to Shanghai and getting to, say, the QF would give him a couple of weeks at No. 1 to overtake Sampras's weeks at No. 1 - if that would occur it would be fascinating to see if that is a sufficiently important record to him to make him do it, perhaps against his better feelings for his body.

Whilst Nadal has little he could gain at the Slams, 1,600 in total over the summer against Fed's 3,300 odd, Nadal also has very low points to defend from Cincinnati/Canada, just like Fed, and he'll want to defend his Olympic title at a venue he likes. He's going to pick up at least 600 at Rome too, a win there could prove important to his ranking in October.

I still think it's more likely to be Nadal or Djoko swapping No. 1 for the rest of the year.

He was full of apologies to the organisers for skipping Shanghai last year, so perhaps he's put it in his schedule (by way of amends/goodwill) for 2012 anyway, ie. regardless of just what the points scenario may be at that time.

I agree. Isee him at Shanghia for the fans and organiser this year.

still showing a repeat on Sky...still rain...I wonder when they cancel it... I wonder how many fans will give up.

Federer looking to make sure he doesn't get messed about by rain.

So..to get back to 1, who does Federer need to win tomorrow?

If, and only if, Djokovic wins the final against Nadal, he will be seeded no 2 at the French as I understand it. A big boost indeed but there's a 50% chance he would draw Nadal anyway making it worthless. And a 50% chance it would be rather a lot.

Then again, the real battle for number 1 is with Djokovic who has much more points in the race to no 1 after US than Nadal. If Djokovic misses out on another 400 points tomorrow, that's a boost for Fed in the race to no 1.

In the end, these factors are about the same I think. So it doesn't really matter.

I think Federer will have a better grass / hard court season than last year.

You know the funny thing is that I've felt for a while that the #2/#3 seed thing wont matter at FO. We have this assumed thought that Federer will get to the semis (and maybe get Murray rather than Nadal/Djo) but he's still vulnerable in long ralleys and as matches go on. I have this feeling that FO'12 is the major that Federer loses early for the first time in many many years.

If that happens then #1 is much harder. If he does get to the SF then I think he needs SW19 or USO to get #1. Either way he surely needs a major to get to #1 still?

Hi Lydian, I had more of a feeling of that in 2010 and 2011, but he still keeps getting to at least the quarters. A shock result can happen at any time, but there is a big gap in quality between FEderer and non top 10-20 players (first 3-4 rounds).

Agreed there HB, but there are always those dangerous floaters (e.g. Nalbandian), or those who get inspired playing against him in slams (like Falla that time at SW19). Its only a mad hunch of course but I just have this feeling this is the year when one of those early struggles he tends to have in slams goes against him...it has to one year, one major? (and likewise this could happen to Nadal or Djokovic...but less likely IMO)

He was injured against Falla, that was obvious.

What injury? Besides that, Falla himself had the trainer on in the 3rd set for a leg injury after winning the first 2 sets. But my point isnt about Falla himself per se, just that banana-skins can crop up early in majors...and as he gets older he's more and more vulnerable to slipping over them. I just wouldnt assume he gets to the semis is all....

lydian wrote:Agreed there HB, but there are always those dangerous floaters (e.g. Nalbandian), or those who get inspired playing against him in slams (like Falla that time at SW19). Its only a mad hunch of course but I just have this feeling this is the year when one of those early struggles he tends to have in slams goes against him...it has to one year, one major? (and likewise this could happen to Nadal or Djokovic...but less likely IMO)

Federer has had his fair share of matches in slams against lower ranked players that he was well behind in and could easily have lost...e.g.Haas, Falla, Davydenko a set and a break at the AO, was he 2-0 down to someone at the AO once as well? An element of destiny as well as ability in the QF streak...And I agree with you in the sense that the next one of those it will slip away, you can't keep turning them around. On the other hand he is well capable of reaching the FO QF without even going behind in the first place.

What I remember with Falla is that Federer's hair was too long. After the match he got it cut and his performances improved no end!

lydian wrote:What injury? Besides that, Falla himself had the trainer on in the 3rd set for a leg injury after winning the first 2 sets. But my point isnt about Falla himself per se, just that banana-skins can crop up early in majors...and as he gets older he's more and more vulnerable to slipping over them. I just wouldnt assume he gets to the semis is all....

Feds back was knackered that event. His movement was non-existent, I recall t clearly.

Sure, of course he could lose early at RG this year.

nole will remain #1 for the rest of 2012

jersey wrote:nole will remain #1 for the rest of 2012

Jersey your predictions are coming true so far , I believe now Novak will win Rome, but some time your prediction have to fail and it will fail in FO , coz its Roger who gonna win it.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

jersey wrote:nole will remain #1 for the rest of 2012

Jersey your predictions are coming true so far , I believe now Novak will win Rome, but some time your prediction have to fail and it will fail in FO , coz its Roger who gonna win it.

disagree.

People can make their predictions of Roger taking over the number 1 ranking. But until one of Djokovic's closest rivals can prove that they can beat him consistently in 5 set matches I don't believe those bold predictions will come true. And as we witnessed today Novak holds not only a voodoo on Nadal but has also won 5 of his last 6 I believe against Federer. Djokovic is still the clear number one in my book until FEd, Nadal, or Murray actually start beating him consistently as opposed to winning an off match here or there.

Not necessary, given what as happened since the USO. It can change very quickly, even to the extent that one very big shock (say from drawing Raonic at Wimbedon, for example) could do it.

It's much more possible than anyone could have credited when Federer took his big break between Miami and Madrid.