The race for #1

First topic message reminder :

I just took a look at the rankings and realised that today isn't just about taking #2, it's about closing to less than 2000 points on #1.

Federer has one event left between now and post-USO where he defends significantly more points than Djokovic. The Slams will be key, but he's so far ahead in the race from the day after the USO that it's becoming a serious possibility.

The mood will change of course if he loses today, but arguably it shouldn't; it's an overstatement to say its in his hands but with the Rome draw offering further encouragement it does look like he has a serious shot at it.

Fitness is the key.

I wouldn't rule out Federer being ranked No.2 in the world for RG but Nadal still being seeded 2 as the rankings aren't ALWAYS used to determine seeds are they?

CaledonianCraig wrote:I wouldn't rule out Federer being ranked No.2 in the world for RG but Nadal still being seeded 2 as the rankings aren't ALWAYS used to determine seeds are they?

I think for RG thats the case, rankings decide the seeds [only in Wimbledon the rankings alone dont decide the seedings].

A small correction: Nadal will also lose 45 points from Queens (only 18 tournaments + WTF count).

If Federer makes the QF in Rome, Rafa must win it to get back to number 2!
Anything less than a final in Rome will not be sufficient for Rafa...

invisiblecoolers wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:I wouldn't rule out Federer being ranked No.2 in the world for RG but Nadal still being seeded 2 as the rankings aren't ALWAYS used to determine seeds are they?

I think for RG thats the case, rankings decide the seeds [only in Wimbledon the rankings alone dont decide the seedings].

Ah right thanks for clearing that up.

prostaff85 wrote:A small correction: Nadal will also lose 45 points from Queens (only 18 tournaments + WTF count).

If Federer makes the QF in Rome, Rafa must win it to get back to number 2!
Anything less than a final in Rome will not be sufficient for Rafa...

Yeah, thanks for spotting this. I just realized this about the Queens points (when I was verifying that the Madrid 2011 points came off on May 7th).

So, Federer will be up by 370 points on monday.

Agreed, Nadal needs to make the final in Rome for any chance of getting back to #2 before FO 2012.

But, if Nadal makes the final, Federer needs the SF. The QF (180 points) wouldn't be enough.

If Federer makes the SF, then Nadal needs to win.

bogbrush wrote:Indeed, but of course should Djokovic suffer any serious slip up (which might mean just doing very well!) he can have it by default;

Are you projecting your wishes?
And convenient for many not to mention World Tour Masters points at the end of the year. OK illusion is a better state of mind for some people.

This is Fed's last season. Can you imagine a man with a cane defending these points the next year? Ajde Nole!

What if Fed gets to the semis and then loses to Djokovic and he then goes on to beat Nadal in the final? Nadal would marginally lose out on being No.2, right? That's the perfect situation for Fed to get to No.2. It's amazing how close it will be though (given how after Miami it looked like Fed had no chance).

touch(A)parabola wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Indeed, but of course should Djokovic suffer any serious slip up (which might mean just doing very well!) he can have it by default;

Are you projecting your wishes?
And convenient for many not to mention World Tour Masters points at the end of the year. OK illusion is a better state of mind for some people.

This is Fed's last season. Can you imagine a man with a cane defending these points the next year? Ajde Nole!

Read the parts in bold. That is the definition of wishful thinking...

And I heard the points for last year's Rome dropped already ..correct zaron?

touch(A)parabola wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Indeed, but of course should Djokovic suffer any serious slip up (which might mean just doing very well!) he can have it by default;

Are you projecting your wishes?
And convenient for many not to mention World Tour Masters points at the end of the year. OK illusion is a better state of mind for some people.

This is Fed's last season. Can you imagine a man with a cane defending these points the next year? Ajde Nole!

Lol!

People probably aren't mentioning the Y/E points because they're completely irrelevant. Don't let that get in your way though

As for decline, someone looks like they're not standing the pace and it isn't Federer!

touch(A)parabola wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Indeed, but of course should Djokovic suffer any serious slip up (which might mean just doing very well!) he can have it by default;

Are you projecting your wishes?
And convenient for many not to mention World Tour Masters points at the end of the year. OK illusion is a better state of mind for some people.

This is Fed's last season. Can you imagine a man with a cane defending these points the next year? Ajde Nole!

Hi Parabola,

I remembered when you first joined the forum.

You made a really nice introduction and seemed like a polite, balanced person. But your recent posts have all been unprovoked digs at Federer.

This was your introductory post:

.Knee Jerk Reaction To A Murray Defeat
Hi All,
First time to write here although reading your posts for quiet some time.
Sorry that my English is not as good as noleisthebest's, but nonetheless, I'm passionate about my countryman Novak just as much as she is.
I have been following the game of tennis for a long time and even played for a club in Belgrade (some competitions too) when I was younger. My first racquet was wooden Wilson Christ.
http://www.80s-tennis.com/pages/evertauto.html
So, a little bit of experience in my life makes me more comfortable to post a comment or two here. In addition, I see that this forum has more understanding of tennis world and tries to be as objective as possible comparing to many other forums.

I'm choosing this topic to introduce myself to you since it touches many issues surrounding tennis players, countries, personal believes…

My favourite personalities on the tour are of course, Novak, but also Murray, Ferrer, Tipsy, Ivo… These are the people that I would be comfortable to go out with and to have a beer, some honest chat, to laugh together… I do not need the superficiality of muscles to seduce me, or wavy hairs to think of someone's classiness… I like when someone is just simply, normal.

As players, I prefer the styles of Novak (of course), but also Hewitt, Nalbandian, Ferrer… and (its hard for me to say it loud) Federer, too.

In my opinion, Murray as a player is who deserves the 4th place. Nothing more, nothing less. You can guys try as much as you can to compare him to Nole, but I'm sorry its not realistic. Murray is far away from achieving what Nole has already: 5 GS, record last year, first ATP place, Davis Cup… When these two guys play against each other, its up to Nole what the final result would be. Unfortunately for me, I do not feel like this when Nole lets say plays against Federer.

The thing that Murray is lacking is offensive game. Its not the serve, as it was suggested, because for exmple Nole doesn't serve anything better then Murray does, but Nole still mostly wins. Of course, if they can all improve their serves, than even better. But to go back to my point, Murray can win sometimes playing this softly and waiting for his opponent to make a mistake, but that cannot make him number 1 (except if the first three players do not break their lags, all at the same time). Guttsy style of Nole, where almost every ball goes next to the line, drop shots, also comes with the skill and the place where he was born (another story). I'm not saying that Murray is not skilled, but the ability to keep the ball for a long time within a point is not a winning receipt. I also think that Murray is mentally strong and since he does not appear to be an arrogant man he should realize that his defensive style will not bring him fame. Yes, its harder to target the areas around the lines, but practice, practice, practice.

------------------------------

I think we all value contributions from different people with different loyalties. It saddens me that you've renegeded so quickly on your initial intents.



emancipator

I think to be fair Fed isn't the real #2 tomorrow, it's only because we'll be missing Rome points.

zaron's post above is correct though, he can easily be #2 for RG.

Returning to #1 though, in fact Federer has an even better chance of getting it if he plays Shanghai, which he by-passed last year.

If Nadal wins Rome he remains at number 2.

With Raonic losing today, I like his chances.

The whole dropping off points thing is a farce. I've always liked my idea that no points ever drop off and points are halved on Dec 31.

My Master Plan involves Federer tanking a semi to Djokovic and letting him secure Feds #2 by beating Nadal.

Year end no 1 is going to be the most significant, but just 1 for a week would be a good achievement for Federer. And he only needs 1 week for the Sampras record. Was it 1 to tie, 2 to beat , something like that...

bogbrush wrote:My Master Plan involves Federer tanking a semi to Djokovic and letting him secure Feds #2 by beating Nadal.

That would be ideal but Fed'll prob beat Novak and then lose to Rafa. Sod's law.

emancipator - my thoughts exactly re Parabola.

Over on another thread (just within the last few minutes) he is telling us that "my dead grandma" can win tournaments in the same way that Federer does. How wonderfully mature a comment.

Shades here of the likes of Unbiased Educator (aka SA, aka TT), Boromir 7 and Catalan on the old 606 who would never tire of denigrating players they happened to dislike, and then somehow expect us all to magically say ".... oh yes, you're right.... I see what you mean, you're spot on with that". Which of course nobody ever did !

All posters are entitled to their opinions of course (however misplaced and irrational) but it seems that Parabola has been found out rather more quickly even than UE and CP ever were. The latter of course showed far less interest in appreciating the sport of tennis overall than the sport of getting in as many gratuitous digs as possible.

I too was impressed by that first post. Seemed very refreshing at the time. But the truth is out, it seems.

I agree Emancipator, Fed certainly can beat Nole on clay but I don't think Fed has it in him to beat Nadal on clay, if he was going to beat Nadal @ Rome, he'd have done it in 2006 when he actually had the match points to do it! Starting off tentatively like he did against Bird today would be a disaster against Nadal, especially on clay. His best hope is letting the person with the proven track record of beating Nadal win: Djokovic. It also gives him #2, definitely worth having before RG.

Lags72,

I was just saddened by those gratuitous digs as you correctly described them.

When Parabola joined I thought good, now we have another Djokovic fan, this should bring more balance to the board. Hence his rapid rengede startled me somewhat.

Lucius, that would probably be Roger's best chance of getting the number two seed, but I think he's too proud to lie down for anyone, especially Novak.

Henman Bill wrote:And I heard the points for last year's Rome dropped already ..correct zaron?

They are supposed to drop off tomorrow (monday 14th May)

Points Since US Open:
6855 Federer
4880 Djokovic
4190 Nadal
4080 Murray

Federer ahead today by 1975 points.

I see this as a tight race between Djokovic and Federer. I see Rafa going to be at 3 potentially for much of the rest of the season if he doesn't win RG. Maybe Rafa back into the top 2 in the first half of next season when he could make up points at Madrid, Indian Wells, Miami and Australian Open etc?

I think Djokovic is clear favourite for year end no 1 at the moment, but Federer could yet sneak it for September and October at least.

zaron wrote:

Henman Bill wrote:And I heard the points for last year's Rome dropped already ..correct zaron?

They are supposed to drop off tomorrow (monday 14th May)

Agreed. That's what I meant to say.

Nadal's Raonic bogey was taken care of by Mayer. That should relieve some early round pressure. Berdych may not be able to repeat Madrid, so Murray/Ferrer can put some pressure. Murray, more so than Ferrer.

Interesting possibilities going into RG.

emancipator wrote:When Parabola joined I thought good, now we have another Djokovic fan, this should bring more balance to the board. Hence his rapid rengede startled me somewhat.

I would suggest allowing tAp the freedom of speech rights. He has the right to change his viewpoint as he gets more familiar with 606v2.

BTW, welcome to 606v2, Zaron!

HB - the more I see written about the possible scenarios - however remote - whereby Federer could regain Number One, the more unreal I find it.

In the immediate wake of Fed's QF exit at Wimby 2011 (and not least the manner of it) I found myself thinking that his days of winning anything significant might be ebbing away. And yet since then he's actually picked up 7 titles - including yet another WTF and two Masters

So then I started thinking it was pretty impressive just to maintain a good enough ranking to qualify for WTF 2013 at 31. Not too many have done so at that age, surely.

If he somehow DID make Number One again, I'm fairly certain (??) he would be only the second oldest guy to hold the top spot - after Agassi.

lags72 wrote:HB - the more I see written about the possible scenarios - however remote - whereby Federer could regain Number One, the more unreal I find it.

I know! Great isn't it!
BTW update on whether Fed will be playing in Rome- he told in an interview that he's going there but seeing in the next day or so if he'll be ready to play in Wednesday.

emancipator wrote:

touch(A)parabola wrote:

bogbrush wrote:Indeed, but of course should Djokovic suffer any serious slip up (which might mean just doing very well!) he can have it by default;

Are you projecting your wishes?
And convenient for many not to mention World Tour Masters points at the end of the year. OK illusion is a better state of mind for some people.

This is Fed's last season. Can you imagine a man with a cane defending these points the next year? Ajde Nole!

Hi Parabola,

I remembered when you first joined the forum.

You made a really nice introduction and seemed like a polite, balanced person. But your recent posts have all been unprovoked digs at Federer.

This was your introductory post:

.Knee Jerk Reaction To A Murray Defeat
Hi All,
First time to write here although reading your posts for quiet some time.
Sorry that my English is not as good as noleisthebest's, but nonetheless, I'm passionate about my countryman Novak just as much as she is.
I have been following the game of tennis for a long time and even played for a club in Belgrade (some competitions too) when I was younger. My first racquet was wooden Wilson Christ.
http://www.80s-tennis.com/pages/evertauto.html
So, a little bit of experience in my life makes me more comfortable to post a comment or two here. In addition, I see that this forum has more understanding of tennis world and tries to be as objective as possible comparing to many other forums.

I'm choosing this topic to introduce myself to you since it touches many issues surrounding tennis players, countries, personal believes…

My favourite personalities on the tour are of course, Novak, but also Murray, Ferrer, Tipsy, Ivo… These are the people that I would be comfortable to go out with and to have a beer, some honest chat, to laugh together… I do not need the superficiality of muscles to seduce me, or wavy hairs to think of someone's classiness… I like when someone is just simply, normal.

As players, I prefer the styles of Novak (of course), but also Hewitt, Nalbandian, Ferrer… and (its hard for me to say it loud) Federer, too.

In my opinion, Murray as a player is who deserves the 4th place. Nothing more, nothing less. You can guys try as much as you can to compare him to Nole, but I'm sorry its not realistic. Murray is far away from achieving what Nole has already: 5 GS, record last year, first ATP place, Davis Cup… When these two guys play against each other, its up to Nole what the final result would be. Unfortunately for me, I do not feel like this when Nole lets say plays against Federer.

The thing that Murray is lacking is offensive game. Its not the serve, as it was suggested, because for exmple Nole doesn't serve anything better then Murray does, but Nole still mostly wins. Of course, if they can all improve their serves, than even better. But to go back to my point, Murray can win sometimes playing this softly and waiting for his opponent to make a mistake, but that cannot make him number 1 (except if the first three players do not break their lags, all at the same time). Guttsy style of Nole, where almost every ball goes next to the line, drop shots, also comes with the skill and the place where he was born (another story). I'm not saying that Murray is not skilled, but the ability to keep the ball for a long time within a point is not a winning receipt. I also think that Murray is mentally strong and since he does not appear to be an arrogant man he should realize that his defensive style will not bring him fame. Yes, its harder to target the areas around the lines, but practice, practice, practice.

------------------------------

I think we all value contributions from different people with different loyalties. It saddens me that you've renegeded so quickly on your initial intents.



emancipator

Yes, until I saw that you guys removed all these other forum members who were sympathetic to Nole. So I had need to balance the reality. And yes I did get very irritated seeing fixed draws where Nole kept being pushed to Fed's side and how all you do is to calculate the way Fed will be No1 like all other players are not existing. And yes I still cannot believe people's naivite to support personalities like Fed's (not to be confused for his talent as a player).

While Murray was having good runs you were able to speak about him. Also you quickly forgot how Nadal was so inferior to more mature Federer for a long time. You forget how amazing was Novak last year to play one tournament after the other and to win each one of them. Now you ignore all of that and you sound so very mainstream. To you it's the same if someone plays long every tournament and every second tournament. How pathetic.

Federer proud to lie down especially for Novak? You really do not understand meaning of the word INAT. You will get to know it soon.

Sorry, I'm not here to charm, but to express myself honestly.

Then get some facts.

Tenez is the highest profile "removal", and he's emphatically a fan of Federer.

Oh, and presumptions of the responsibility to provide balance make you sound very detached from reality. Just be content to write well enough to get attention for anything more than being rude.

zaron wrote:In terms of #2 seed for the FO, Federer will be ahead of Nadal by 325 pts on mondays rankings.

So Nadal needs to at least make the SF of Rome (360 pts) to get #2 back for the FO.

If Nadal makes the SF, Federer needs the 3rd round (90 pts).

If Nadal makes the final (600 points), Federer needs the semi-final (360 points)

If Nadal wins (1000 points), he is #2 seed for FO. Federer cannot catch up, even if he makes the final.

Can we make this a sticky or something, it would be very useful to see.

zaron and welcome to the forum

There is pro Federer bias in this forum, like in many forums and indeed crowds around the world because of the way he plays the game.

Djokovic is still well recognised as the best player in the world - 4 out of 5 slams this year and last while Federer has a fat 0. And Djokovic will remain on top until at least Wimbledon.

Getting ahead of myself, but Federer could well play Djokovic at Rome. Ahead of Djokovic on his way to a possible semi final meeting the highest ranked player is Tipsy, who he just easily dismissed. Djokovic could have a more tiring quarter the day before against Tsonga or Del Potro...Interesting tournament ahead.

I think another Djokovic-Nadal final is likely actually. And perhaps a better one than at Monte Carlo!

The pro Fed bias only really came out after Nadal lost @ Wimbledon (and some Nadal fans left). I remember when I started posting during the French Open last year and after. Any comment on Nadal was often shot down as being anti Nadal or a hatred of him. There wasn't much said which was positive of Federer either, much of the discussion was about how Federer was owned by Nadal! I'm sure if Fed starts losing and Nadal starts winning, we might see more balance again.

Henman Bill wrote:I think Djokovic is clear favourite for year end no 1 at the moment, but Federer could yet sneak it for September and October at least.

The year-end race is pretty close, certainly for the top three. Current standings are:

Djokovic 4330
Federer 3875
Nadal 3760
Ferrer 2240
Murray 2160

Djokovic is my favourite too, but it could be tight unless he can maintain his grip on the slams.

Positively 4th Street wrote:
Djokovic is my favourite too, but it could be tight unless he can maintain his grip on the slams.

Positively... to be the hunted and keep ahead of the hunters is a very tough task. Fedal can tell you all about it.

Too true lf. New experience for Djokovic too. It's shaping up nicely for a stellar summer.

Federer needs to play Rome and pick up some extra points. If he wants to get to No.1 he needs to go all out. He is 30 so there aren't going to to be many more chances to get back to the top.

Incrediblexman wrote:Federer needs to play Rome and pick up some extra points. If he wants to get to No.1 he needs to go all out. He is 30 so there aren't going to to be many more chances to get back to the top.

It should be balanced with physical well-being, IMO. The older a player is, the better planning it requires. This year is a tough one with Olympics also in the mix. Federer may withdraw from Rome.

Officially, he has played 835 (W) + 189(L) = 1024 = 2 power 10 matches. (from the ATP website including Madrid).

laverfan wrote:

Incrediblexman wrote:Federer needs to play Rome and pick up some extra points. If he wants to get to No.1 he needs to go all out. He is 30 so there aren't going to to be many more chances to get back to the top.

It should be balanced with physical well-being, IMO. The older a player is, the better planning it requires. This year is a tough one with Olympics also in the mix. Federer may withdraw from Rome.

Officially, he has played 835 (W) + 189(L) = 1024 = 2 power 10 matches. (from the ATP website including Madrid).

The geek is strong in this one!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zn7-fVtT16k&feature=BFa&list=PLEFFD0AFDDF3F2C43

touch(A)parabola wrote:Yes, until I saw that you guys removed all these other forum members who were sympathetic to Nole. So I had need to balance the reality. And yes I did get very irritated seeing fixed draws where Nole kept being pushed to Fed's side and how all you do is to calculate the way Fed will be No1 like all other players are not existing.

Removed? You seem to have formed an opinion without knowing the details. It was discussed at length on a couple of threads, which I will let you find on your own. I would also suggest you find comments that have been made on other forums regarding that specific incident and make your own rational judgements.

touch(A)parabola wrote:And yes I still cannot believe people's naivite to support personalities like Fed's (not to be confused for his talent as a player).

Should fan support for Nadal, Djokovic or Murray be also considered naiveté?

touch(A)parabola wrote:While Murray was having good runs you were able to speak about him. Also you quickly forgot how Nadal was so inferior to more mature Federer for a long time. You forget how amazing was Novak last year to play one tournament after the other and to win each one of them.

He was indeed amazing. There are many players who have had very good seasons too, not just Djokovic. I do not want to list all of them here, you can find them yourself.

touch(A)parabola wrote:Now you ignore all of that and you sound so very mainstream. To you it's the same if someone plays long every tournament and every second tournament. How pathetic.

See the comment above. As I said, may players in past have had very good runs. Just one example, John McEnroe 82-3.

touch(A)parabola wrote:Federer proud to lie down especially for Novak? You really do not understand meaning of the word INAT. You will get to know it soon.

Persistence - A tennis player needs a lot of it. There are also negative connotations of that word. Also, this can be perceived as a veiled threat, and translated languages can lose nuances of the original. Perhaps that is the case here.

touch(A)parabola wrote:Sorry, I'm not here to charm, but to express myself honestly.

Honesty + Charm help the reader/listener be more receptive to your opinions, like Federer. .

For example compare the statements from Nadal and Djokovic to the post match interview on the ATP website regarding the court surface - http://www.atpworldtour.com/Tennis/Media/Videos/2012/05/Madrid/Madrid-2012-Sunday-Final-Interview-Federer.aspx . I will let you make your own judgements.

We can discuss more via PM, if you so choose.

kung fu pandering

reckoner wrote:kung fu pandering

Skadoooooosh!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEFZX2JwQ2U&list=UUipmTNU7vougnG_YMUocQKg&index=1&feature=plcp

how does that spikey trophy still exist...

I'd think Fed's decision whether to play would be made solely on how he feels physically. Many of us (me included) wondered about his 5 week break before Madrid, and that has turned out to be the right thing to do. I think he's got a pretty good understanding of what's good for him.

I'm excited by the prospect, but I can't really see Fed making No. 1 again - he'd need to win a slam and probably this Wimbledon because that would generate a huge points turnaround, and he'd also have to make at least the SF at this RG. Unlike No. 1, there are plenty of more likely permutations by which he and Rafa can swap Nos. 2 and 3 in the next few weeks. If Fed has not managed No. 1 by September 2012 I'd be amazed if he'll be able to create such a good chance for himself again.

Once again, the top of the men's game gives us plenty to anticipate at the business part of the season.

It's September or never, that's for sure.

My feeling is that he's unlikely to get it unless Djokovic suffers some degree of fall-off from 2011 standard; for instance, he somehow loses earlyish at Wimbledon and Fed makes the final at least. That's not incredibly unlikely, it means just one bad day for Djokovic, one crappy draw or whatever and Federer gets it.
I don't see any issue with him getting a bit ahead of Nadal for a while, Rafa has a win and two finals to defend at the Slams between now and September and that's easy to fall off.

So either Federer goes on a 2005 standard run (not likely at all), Djokovic slips up (quite possible) or a few young guys spring upsets (unlikely but not impossible). Overall, probably a 35% chance of him doing it, I think.

Good assessment bogbrush, I pretty much agree with that.

In terms of actual numbers: since the US Open 2011, Federer has earned exactly 2,000 points more than Djokovic. So from now on until the US Open, Novak needs to do at least 2,000 point better than Federer to defend his #1 position.

Comparing that to Nadal: he is actually behind Djokovic by roughly 400 points since last year's US Open, so to stay ahead of Rafa, Novak just needs to do equally well or even slightly worse.

You know, alot hinges on RG for Federer...he has alot of points there to defend and his run to the final this year is by no means assured whereas you feel Nadal and Nole have a much better chance of getting there. In that respect Nole can gain alot more points. If he was to win RG this year he would gain 1300 points (roughly) from last year. If Fed went out at QF stage he would lose 800-900 (roughly)...that would be a 2000 pt swing for that event alone. But agreed, Niole has the massive task of defending Wimbledon and USO. And of course we have the Olympics on grass too...750 pts?

Its really tough to call at the moment...I think Feds chances of #1 are around 50/50...but alot depends on his RG.

Interestingly, any news on that hip tweak from yesterday? That cant be good news going into Rome...I expect him to drop Rome, only got 90pts to defend there anyway and if he plays Rome he may risk RG. But if he doesnt he's going to RG without any proper clay experience and it only takes a dangerous floater like Falla, Nalby, Gimeno-T, etc, to cause all sorts of problems in R1. Still, I think he'll drop Rome.

Interesting time ahead! Either way, Nadal is not getting to #1 this year but I have a feeling its going to be Y/E rankings same as last year -Nole isnt as good as last year, Madrid aside I think Nadal is better than 2011, and I feel Federer's good run will come to an end at RG onwards as he's played alot of tennis now and his body isnt young anymore (although I expect him to do well at SW19/Olympics) so we cant expect him to carry on at this same rate of success. All pure speculation of course...

I'd agree there lydian, I'd estimate Fed's chances @ 50/50 too. I think Fed's chances of defending his points @ RG are pretty good actually, and I'd expect him to get through to the semis with a hiccup or two (@ most). Besides Nadal and Soderling, who else has beaten Federer @ RG recently? Even Djokovic couldn't manage it last year. Making the semis would mean Fed loses 480, which isn't too bad. As you mentioned, a good chance he could pick up points @ Wimbledon and the USO.

I think less hinges on RG than it appears (as long as he gets to the semis). What matters for Fed more is that he improves his run @ Wimbledon and the USO. Strangely, just getting to the finals @ both and winning one of Rome, Canada or Cinci should give him the No.1 slot. That's because winning another masters means he will hold 4 and getting to the final of a slam is 800 points less than winning it. Winning another masters, gives him 4000 in total, plus 1, 500 for winning the WTF, add in Rotterdam and Basel, he's @ 6, 500, 720 for the Aussie, and that's 7, 220. Let's say you add in final finishes for Wimbledon & the USO, 9, 620. I haven't included RG, but if it's a semi, 10, 340. Let's say he has poor runs @ Rome, Canada & Shanghai and collects 360 for the lot, he ends up close to 11, 000. That would be just enough to reclaim the No.1 spot and achieved without winning a grand slam. I also forgot Dubai is worth 500, so he'd be at 11, 500. So he could even risk getting just to one grand slam final.

The only unknown, is how Nadal does. Even now, I don't think Djokovic will hang onto 3/4 of the slams this year. If he wins RG (jury's out on that), I wouldn't be so sure he could hang onto both Wimbledon & the USO. I'm fairly sure Fed will probably be seeded #2 @ the USO which means Nadal could meet Djokovic in the semis, factor in super Saturday, and I reckon Djokovic might just lose to Fed. Anyhow, should Djokovic win RG and pick up a lot of points, I reckon he'd lose the USO, he's been very lucky to escape being knocked out twice by Fed. So overall, the pressure of actually getting to No.1 is lower on Fed as he stands a good chance of getting there without even winning a slam, whereas Djokovic and Nadal must if they are to stand any realistically chance of being (or retaining) No.1 and staying there before October. If Fed wins just one slam, he also has a decent shot @ being End of Year No.1 too.

Btw, is winning the Olympic gold only worth 750 points lydian?

Btw, is winning the Olympic gold only worth 750 points lydian?

lydian will confirm, but I'm pretty certain it is.

Think that stems from the fact the actual field at the Olympics has historically (well ..... what little history there is ....!!) often been much weaker than at many Tour events.

That's not many points @ all. It's not likely to have much of an impact on the race for No.1 in that case, which is probably good news for Fed.