Day 16 - Men's Singles Final continued

So another day is needed. Hope it don't rain again!

Will unfortunately miss the match because I have an exam in the afternoon!

Come on Novak, you can do it son!

Nole in 5.

CC, I see what you mean and I'll leave aside the disagreement. I was simply taking issue with Nadal being clear favourite. I did say before the match that Nadal would either win this in 4 but if it goes to 5 Djokovic will win and it's been demonstrated by how things hang in the balance now. Nadal can't risk things going to 5 sets simply because it's become clear that even on clay, Djokovic's best is better than Nadal's best and the more time Djokovic gets, the more chance he will find that best to defeat Nadal. There was a lot of doubt Djokovic would find that 'best' to beat Nadal but I been saying more than once that the fighting spirit we saw in his last 3 matches to break down the will of opponents will come through and sure enough it has.

Djokovic's job is simple: hold his first serve up high and hold his serve tomorrow and go for a double break so he can break Nadal's will. If Djokovic does that, the 5th set could be a run away set for Djokovic but I do hope it will be more of a contest than that. One thing you do know is that this won't end with a scoreline in the final set (if it goes to a 5th) of 14-16 or 7-9 with these two. There's already been so many breaks of serve that the first one to get in and hold onto their own serve in the 5th will win.

Lucius you did call it my friend, although I also took Novak in 5. I have to say Djokovic really made things tough on himself with missing a lot of first serves. Nadal was playing excellent tennis and hitting laser beam like groundies early on but I think the second set where he really dipped to his lowest percentage of first serves was lost on that one issue. The thing is lucius and the reason I picked and emphasized the return as being crucial, is that I felt that Djoko would be able to get Nadal's serve if he was playing well, regardless of whether or not Nadal got his first serve over at a decent clip. While Nadal can break Djoko I think it is much more dependent on Novak missing his first serve. If Novak hits his first serve he will hold well enough. But if Novak continues to return like he has the last few matches EVEN IF NADAL HITS A GOOD CLIP OF FIRST SERVES HE WILL STILL GET BROKEN.

Who knows where this match would have been if Novak managed to serve in the high 60s from the outset like he did against Fed. I think he can win and still will, but it is very hard to serve like that for 2 sets in a grandslam final and comeback and win.

socal1976 wrote:Who knows where this match would have been if Novak managed to serve in the high 60s from the outset like he did against Fed. I think he can win and still will, but it is very hard to serve like that for 2 sets in a grandslam final and comeback and win.

The game for Nadal and Djokovic is simple:

For Nadal: win the match in 4 sets. No risk can be taken in allowing it to go to 5 sets.
For Djokovic: break Nadal again in the 4th set by keeping a high 1st serve % and break down his will and keep up the pressure in the 5th, -draw out the set and the errors will flow from Nadal

Fairly simple plans for both but who executes it better is key.

Interesting, that at this juncture, both have won an equal number of points, 97. . The match time is 3 hours and 21 minutes.

Nadal is a slow starter, hence Djokovic can pull ahead and win the fourth. The fifth may become a titanic struggle and turn on a single stroke.

Djokovic was asked about the missed Nadal BH at AO 2012 when Nadal was up 4-2 in the fifth set, and Djokovic said he did.

7 titles, vs a Grand Slam. :NailBiting:

The key is whether the balls fly and bounce. If they do, Nadal wins the rallies and the match, if they not he doesn't.

bogbrush wrote:The key is whether the balls fly and bounce. If they do, Nadal wins the rallies and the match, if they not he doesn't.

Oh yes blame Novak's comeback on the rain. His grandslams are due to slowed down conditions and winning the 3rd set was because of the rain. In your book Novak has never accomplished anything special or memorable or worthwhile he is the luckiest serbian on the planet who just keeps getting lucky that game was changed for him or that the gods gave him rain. It was raining before the match started and drizzled throughout the first two sets that Nadal won.

Sorry, just stating facts. Not my fault if they don't fit the way you want to see it. Actually, it began drizzling after the match started and when it got heavier they went off. It stayed heavy but they didn't cover the court so when they returned the conditions were nothing like the start.

Perfectly obvious that Nadal was struggling to (i) move, and (ii) get work on the ball.

I wouldn't worry, the weather is bad tomorrow so you should get that the way you want it.

luciusmann wrote:... I was simply taking issue with Nadal being clear favourite. ...

Who are we to believe an armchair critic or a 16 times slam champion or the bookies?

Being favorite doesn't mean someone will win.

Being favorite is based on probability.

Probability is not based on a fan's hopes or wishes.

Probability is based on past data and the specifics of the outcomes.

I guess Nole gonna do it, and no idea how much its gonna affect Nadal mentally.

No idea when was the last time Nadal lost after winning the 1st two sets, i guess it was to Federer in some masters, but to lose in RG with 2 sets up will surely demoralize Nadal to core.

Fed indeed wants that, once Nadal is demoralized he will take on Djokovic, so this would indeed do a lot if indirect favours to him.

Day 16 in itself sounds mad enough

I think Nadal will see out in 4. Needs to start finding confidence in his FH.

The confidence issue for me has been the most prominent factor in this match. I don't think either player has really done anything special in this final thus far. Mentally both players are trying their hardest to throw the match away. I just want someone to put their foot down and dominate a set or 2 and have a flourish of great shotmaking.

I agree with Legend on this one.

Nadal will see it out in 4. I expect Djoko to have lost that rhythm he found yesterday towards the end. I think he will lose serve upon resumption and Nadal will take out all the errors and any chance of letting Djoko back into this match.

Djoko's only salvation will be a cracking serve, something he has lacked throughout the match. His serve was very poor and he is lucky have found some inspiration in the match. I think the match is too far gone in Nadal's favour for there to be a complete turn around.

I think the resumption will be a huge anticlimax for those hoping for a thrilling 5 set match. I would not be surprised if it is wrapped up in 30 mins as Nadal is NOT going to let this one go.

On another note, Nadal's behaviour has been far from exlemplary. The disagreement with the umpire over a bad call where he was told replay the point and he started waving his finger about and crossing over to the other side despite being told replay the point was shocking. Fair enough he was right but it was like saying I dont care what you say as the umpire I will carry on anyway. Djoko conceding the point was to me good sportsmanship despite being over a barrel. Also throwing that ball towards the referee and tournament director when the chips were down were just wrong. Both players had the same conditions. The balls were the same for both i.e heavy and soggy. Bit hypocritical of Nadal as I recall he was pushing for the match to be stopped when the rain started to fall at match point in Indian Wells this year because he was in the ascendency.

Well, we could be into day 17 or even day 18, as the Paris weather foecast for today and Tuesday looks dire. Nadal is supposed to play Halle after this but who knows if or when he'll be able to get to Germany.
Saw all the match so far. Thought Rafa was home and dry when he went a break up in the third. Agree that he should just get on with it, even when the state of the court is not helping him. As so many year-round conditions are in his favour - slow balls, slow courts even on grass - he really should not grumble when it's fast at Madrid or heavy at RG.
Also agree that it's quite ridiculous to start as late as 3pm local time and particularly so when the forecast was poor. But then the scheduling has been pretty awful throughout this tournament.

I do agree that Djokovic's good sportsmanship was a massive positive in what has been a poor final.

I don't think Nadal has covered himself in glory, but then I am not a fan of Djokovic's racquet smashing and chair smashing antics and constant moaning to his box. I think he was allowing too many things to creep underneath his skin and losing focus too easily. Nadal has allowed for the conditions to annoy him and get under his skin. I am surprised that Djokovic has not taken positives from Nadal's decline in rythym. He was fried after his rants about conditions. Equally Djokovic was fried when he was frustrated with his poor play. It does highlight both players neglect and un-willingness to take the match away from the opponent when it is there to be taken.

Has the making's of Melbourne all over again

Is today's play not being shown on ITV? I can't seem to find it anywhere?

My guess is ITV4 Olly.

No it isn't on ITV (or at least it isn't on the TV guide thingy)

This could be a three-day match like the famous Henman-Goran encounter at Wimbledon in 01. Rather wanted Rafa to win to stop Nole getting four in a row but now would like to see Nole pulling it off.
My thinking was that, although Nole has played wonderfully now for many months and is the only one really capable of giving Rafa a decent match on clay, I wasn't sure he was so much an ALL-TIME GREAT that he ought to be winning four in a row.
But if he comes back from this - two sets down to a guy who just owns RG - then he's really earned it. Of course, he's also had to do it by playing the next-best guy in all four GS finals. He'll have certainly done it the hard way.

My thinking was that, although Nole has played wonderfully now for many months

I don't go along with this. Nole has been in pretty average form this year and is nowhere near the heights of 2011. Almost like his counterpart Rafa the year before. He does have a Slam under his belt already and for me has managed to stay in the FO this year by the 'fear' factor alone which so many of his opponents this tournament have succumbed to. Seppi, Tsonga, Federer examples of players that despite having their foot on his throat, have not been able to kill him off and have been guilty of under-estimating the situations. Nadal is nearly in the process of doing the exact same thing.

If Djokovic is to pull off another miracle, as much as I will champion his achievement, I will cast doubt over the mental toughness of the players because for me there is massive opportunity for someone to really exert some dominance where the top players are not at their stunning best.

Well, yes, Nole - although still pretty good - has understandably not been as outstanding as last year . But we shouldn't damn Nole with faint praise.
It could be argued that it will be MORE of an achievement, given he's had to come from MP down on a number of occasions. If he'd just smashed everybody then it could be said that he had no real opposition.
It should also be remembered that there has been a full field for each of the Slams (save for Soderling) and that for the most part the big four have reached the semis.

But in equal measures. We can't just heap praise on him for the sake of it. As with anything the quality of play has not been the same and what this tournament has shown has been that players facing him have not brought out the killer edge required. Hence like I said mentally he hasn't had to toughen himself up as the success of 2011 has very much created a mental pressure that players this year have found difficult to overcome. To me Djokovic hasn't done anything equal or more to the standard of play demonstrated last year. It's impressive yes he has had endured success, but not in the swashbuckling style of 2011. He hasn't gone and won events in his true attacking style. The AO was handed to him and Miami probably is the closest I have seen him to winning something of the back of his standard of play.

If Nadal used and played his FH near the standard he had against Ferrer, he would've tied the match up in 3. The opening 3 games yesterday were stunning by Nadal, and since he hasn't done anything himself. The 6 games in the 3rd set were when Djokovic started to open up and attack with his FH. Other than those flashes, the rest of it was been passive to say the least.

One thing that has stood out for me is the lack of penetration in the Nadal backhand in this final. He hit a terrific BH early on but after that played rather defensively on that flank which was duly peppered by Djoko.
Do people think Rafa has been nervous in this match ? It's rare to see that from him, although the worst I think I've seen was when he was a double break up in the 4th set tiebreak in THAT final at Wimbledon in 08 with Fed and ended up serving a DF and losing the set.

Nadal has looked nervous. Looked vulnerable to. Not playing the margins at all and he is hitting into Novak's comfort area thus handing most of the incentive to Djokovic. If Djokovic had decided to hit aggressively, he could've won it in 3. I think Djokovic will rue the missed chances to have wrapped the match up.

Both players will be annoyed at the energy and court time they are investing given the Grass is lurking ever closer. I think Federer may just be fancying his chances at Wimbledon a bit more.

I can't see Federer doing well at Wimbledon if his form here is anything to go by. He was luck that Del Potro's knee was dodgy and then just fell apart against Djokovic. These are worrying times for Roger considering his last Grand Slam final was Roland Garros in 2011 and his last title was the Aussie Open in 2010

Olly wrote:I can't see Federer doing well at Wimbledon if his form here is anything to go by. He was luck that Del Potro's knee was dodgy and then just fell apart against Djokovic. These are worrying times for Roger considering his last Grand Slam final was Roland Garros in 2011 and his last title was the Aussie Open in 2010

Given Grass and clay are very different means form is different. Given he has won at Wimbledon 6 times doesn't mean his form is going to be anything like RG. Del Potro hit himself out in 2 sets. Knee or not wouldn't have made any difference in that result. Rome and RG went the same way and Federer crumbled.

If Djokovic and Nadal go beyond 3 hours today, and with Queens and Halle on the horizon for me at this moment Roger's preparation looks much better than that of Nadal and Djokovic.

For anyone interested in the British contingent.

Jamie Baker faces Oliver Golding for the right to face Tsonga.

Last years hero James Ward takes on Kevin Anderson.

Liam Broady faces Gilles Muller.

All weather permitting

Nore Staat wrote:

luciusmann wrote:... I was simply taking issue with Nadal being clear favourite. ...

Who are we to believe an armchair critic or a 16 times slam champion or the bookies?

Being favorite doesn't mean someone will win.

Being favorite is based on probability.

Probability is not based on a fan's hopes or wishes.

Probability is based on past data and the specifics of the outcomes.

Many of the specifics were based before the match had started so catch up with reality instead of sounding like a broken record. We can now look at what's actually happened and what I referred to as Djokovic's fighting spirit, or what you called Novak Mk.II has come out. You seem to be in denial about the possibility that Nadal can lose from two sets and a break up to love, unprecedented yes but there are historic records are on the line here.

Armchair critic? Please, don't talk rubbish. If I didn't have a track record of calling Djokovic winner many times in his matches with Nadal, first at Wimbledon, then @ the USO and again @ the Aussie Open, your assessment of an armchair critic would be right. The bookies naturally would consider Nadal favourite prior to the match and Federer has lost 5 times to Nadal @ RG, I don't think he's going to think anyone is capable of beating Nadal @ RG. What have you called right? I was happy to leave this but as you don't, let's continue. I said Djokovic would win last year at Wimbledon even before he played Tsonga and even said it would be a final between Nadal and Djokovic (before even Nadal won his semis). Were you on the site then? No need to patronize me ans tell me about probability, I know perfectly well what it is. He isn't clear favourite, before the match he was but certainly not now it's unfolded after 3 hours. Unless you been watching the football or had your eyes closed, you conclusion seems to be based on something out of this world.

I really hope Novak does it too! Would be great to see him turn this around.

I take it the start is delayed?

Nope ITV aren't showing it I don't think!

Olly wrote:Nope ITV aren't showing it I don't think!

barstewards!

Full coverage my arss!!!

Have you not the delights of Eurosport?

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Olly wrote:Nope ITV aren't showing it I don't think!

barstewards!

Full coverage my arss!!!

Have you not the delights of Eurosport?

I don't at my father's no

BBC Text Commentary for me

Ok, got it on.

Lucky break back there

Are we back on serve?

OH COME ON NOVAK!

Yes.

This is terrible. This will be a quick finish.

Not going to look good for Djokovic charge, unless Nadal gets the hump with the court again

conditions favour Nadal much more today, you can see the huge amount of work he's putting on the ball, and it's getting much more off the court than yesterday. Can't see Djokovic fighting back here.

Same old arrogant shouting out and fist pumping from the talentless moonballer.

Faster start from Nadal. The conditions are more to his liking than yesterday (late).

totally agree BB. Yesterday his shots just sat up, begging to be smacked (second part of the day). Today they're fizzing through the court and kicking up much more.

Seifer Almasy wrote:Same old arrogant shouting out and fist pumping from the talentless moonballer.

I know.

I can't stand Djokovic either.......

Novak come on

Excellent sportsmanship from Nadal calling the shot/point.

bogbrush wrote:Excellent sportsmanship from Nadal calling the shot/point.

He does tend to be consistent on calling good points called out. Seen him do it in the early rounds. Not sure based on his mindset yesterday if he would've done the same given the frustration he was showing.

legendkillarV2 wrote:

Seifer Almasy wrote:Same old arrogant shouting out and fist pumping from the talentless moonballer.

I know.

I can't stand Djokovic either.......

Check out the net play for starters. Does Nadal even know what a net is?