Tour De France 2012 Discussion Thread

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

First topic message reminder :

I thought I would start the ball rolling on the TDF 2012. It is less than a week away now.

My predictions:
Yellow Jersey: Bradley Wiggins - Gotta go with the Brit
Green Jersey: Peter Sagan - Imperious form and I think Cav will go for stage wins not the Jersey
Polka dot jersey: Anyone's guess. Probably a Frenchman.
White Jersey: Again up in the air.
Best Team: Team Sky or BMC for me.

[Big]

It's not just whether or not he can personally overhaul Wiggins though, he would still be another rider to team up with Nibali and Evans to try and disrupt Sky. Plus, credit where it is due, historically he hasn't been that much slower than Cadel on the ITTs I'd maybe expect him to lose a minute on Cadel over the two. On top of all that contrary to expectation there's no guarantee that Wiggins will go as well in the next ITT as he did in the first. Even if he is in good physical shape a short but sharp load of rain at the wrong time could do a lot to level the field.

[JDizzle]

Andy Schleck wouldn't have been a contender in this tour. Imagine the time he would lose to Wiggins and Froome in the ITT's

Not sure, last time he did surprinsingly good . But he's not strong enough at climbing to make a big gap anyway . Nowadays there are not many great riders, this modern awful mechanical team tactics kills pleasure and surprises as yesteryears, when a main contender was able to break alone from the begining of stages like today and rode ahead for hours, with several minutes gaps . Even heroic battles between 2 big guys ahead of everybody else like Merckx/Ocana never happen anymore .
Nowadays to create a big gap when you're a contender you have to be superhuman . If Contador was there, maybe he could ? I don't care about doping, they all take some, they always have, we've always known it . People who can't accept this-and I understand- must not watch professional cycling .

I don't remember guys like Merckx etc., so you may very well be right about this but I just thought I'd bring up that one phenomenal stage with Contador and Schleck two years ago(?), in the TDF that Schleck has now "won", where Schleck had to attack on Contador was the only guy who went with him and they were just attacking each other for kilometres up a climb and it was brilliant riding with neither guy able to break the other. They may be more rare, but things like that can still happen.

[phildange]

Yes, this duel was a miniature of old big fights, which could last for 2 hours far ahead of the others .
Right now Cadel is trying !

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Evans doesn't look in great shape to me. Sky if they keep up a constant pace should be able to reel him in later in the stage. What Sky need to do is keep there 4 men, and not lose anyone.

[phildange]

Even if I don't think he has a chance I like this act from Cadel . He knew his only chance was to try something against the Sky robots, and to try it from far . It's very risky because the finish is very far and he can blow .
But he prefers risking to lose everything rather than doing nothing .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

See Evans can't even keep up with Van Garderen. Sky just need to ride sensibly and keep Porte and Rogers riding well

[phildange]

Yes Evans is not good enough but I like that he tried at least .
Monfort, Zubeldia, Menchov, Roche couldn't follow either . There is nobody this year .
I think this little Pinot could find himself in the top 10 today .

[Guest]

My stage winner prediction - P Rolland (Interesting his attack yesterday to snatch 30 seconds)

Looking good........

[phildange]

Who knows , maybe Pinot can do it again . The yellow jersey group can come back, the big guys will control each other and Pinot can jump .

[phildange]

Will Brajkovic, Pinot and VdB be able to catch Rolland ?
Will Kiserlofsky be able to help Brajkovic ?

Have you seen how easily Froome has caught Nibali ???
This Froome is great .
Come on Nibali, try again .

[Guest]

Looked like Froome was out of gas but he has found a second wind.

[Guest]

Looks like Roland will get the win.

[Guest]

Cadel cooked?

[Guest]

Schleck cooked.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

What on earth was Froome doing there?

[Guest]

What on earth was Froome doing there?

Showing his future group leader credentials.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

What on earth was Froome doing there?

Showing his future group leader credentials.

Yeah but there is a time and a place lol.

[Guest]

What on earth was Froome doing there?

Showing his future group leader credentials.

Yeah but there is a time and a place lol.

It had looked like Froome was cooked, he dropped to the back of the "pelaton", Wiggins was at the front, then Froome gets second wind ... then hits the front of the pelaton. Bit confusing. However Evans and Schleck have been dropped.

[phildange]

Beautiful finish today, spectacular due to many guys .
Congrats to John's prediction about Rolland winning .
At last Cadel and Nibali have tried their luck .
Superman Rolland ! Well done Pinot, hope for the future .

-Cadel blew himself in his desperate attempt and lost time at the end of the day .
-Nibali is not strong enough .
-T.J. sacrificed his white jersey to wait for his leader . Chapeau .
-Wiggins couldn't follow Froome's last attack and Froome had to stop to wait ! They should change their leaders in Sky team .

[phildange]

Double lead for Sky in the GC, it's done .
Rolland and Pinot in the GC Top 10 .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Beautiful finish today, spectacular due to many guys .
Congrats to John's prediction about Rolland winning .
At last Cadel and Nibali have tried their luck .
Superman Rolland ! Well done Pinot, hope for the future .

-Cadel blew himself in his desperate attempt and lost time at the end of the day .
-Nibali is not strong enough .
-T.J. sacrificed his white jersey to wait for his leader . Chapeau .
-Wiggins couldn't follow Froome's last attack and Froome had to stop to wait ! They should change their leaders in Sky team .

That is a quite silly statement.
A. Why should they change team leaders when Wiggins is 2 minutes ahead of Froome?
B. Froome may have attacked, but Bradley never ever follows straight away. He has to build himself up and reel the attacker in slowly. He will never be able to respond straight away as that is not his style.
C. This year is for Wiggins. Froome will be the future. At 27, he will have his chance, and he looks like he could be a top contender in years to come

[Guest]

It seems that Bradley lacks the acceleration, explosiveness in his legs to get an immediate gap in a level 1 climb. I suppose Froome would have hoped to have dropped Nibali, and left Bradley in the pelaton - instead the pelaton went with him and they dropped Bradley. There is still the Pyrenees to come, so there is still plenty of riding left to be done.

I still don't understand Froome appearing to be cooked bit, with Wiggins taking over leading the pelaton, followed by an apparent Froome recovery and then attack.

[phildange]

Beautiful finish today, spectacular due to many guys .
Congrats to John's prediction about Rolland winning .
At last Cadel and Nibali have tried their luck .
Superman Rolland ! Well done Pinot, hope for the future .

-Cadel blew himself in his desperate attempt and lost time at the end of the day .
-Nibali is not strong enough .
-T.J. sacrificed his white jersey to wait for his leader . Chapeau .
-Wiggins couldn't follow Froome's last attack and Froome had to stop to wait ! They should change their leaders in Sky team .

That is a quite silly statement.
A. Why should they change team leaders when Wiggins is 2 minutes ahead of Froome?
B. Froome may have attacked, but Bradley never ever follows straight away. He has to build himself up and reel the attacker in slowly. He will never be able to respond straight away as that is not his style.
C. This year is for Wiggins. Froome will be the future. At 27, he will have his chance, and he looks like he could be a top contender in years to come

Hey man, I was just joking . But next year i hope Froome will be in another team .

[phildange]

Just learnt : Petacchi couldn't do it within the delays . He's off .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

If Froome knows what's right for him he will stay at Sky. Nobody else can offer him the domestiques that Sky can. Next year Wiggins could work for Froome. Also Sky have a great set up, and he will be able to flourish among them

[phildange]

Well if Wiggins agrees, yes . Good for Froome, but it's not done that .
But for us spectators I'd prefer by far a struggle .

[djlovesyou]

Froome will probably get a full leadership role at the Giro or Vuelta next year.

[Imperial Ghosty]

Not being funny but Froome doesn't look like he'd have to rely on 3/4 world class domestiques like Wiggins does, he seems to blow the field away every time he attacks, were it not for that crash earlier on i'd think Froome would try something on stage 18.

Having Froome, Porte, Rodgers and Boassen Hagen as your domestiques is ridiculous, no team comes close to that sort of firepower.

[phildange]

Not being funny but Froome doesn't look like he'd have to rely on 3/4 world class domestiques like Wiggins does, he seems to blow the field away every time he attacks, were it not for that crash earlier on i'd think Froome would try something on stage 18.

Having Froome, Porte, Rodgers and Boassen Hagen as your domestiques is ridiculous, no team comes close to that sort of firepower.

Yes, and it kills the race too . Same imperialist tactics as Armstrong . I hate this .

[Imperial Ghosty]

Then again Contador and the Schlecks relied on their teams just as much. At the end of the day Wiggins has shown he has the ability to stick with a high pace up the mountains which this year Evans has not, the team helps but he still has to do the actual cycling himself.

[phildange]

I don't agree . Contador and Schleck had a team, but never except with Armstrong before and Wiggins now do I remember so many team mates able to lead so long in climbing . Three-four guys able to climb long and fast to help their leader, no . Other great riders had one or two, no more . And many times they had to manage by themselves ( Contador for instance) . Even Armstrong had to do it sometimes, when his team had countered and weakened his rivals .
OK Wiggins is able to keep a high pace, but to judge him together with great names, I'd like to see what he can do when he's not protected and pulled by a team mate . Today he's been in front for 5 minutes when Froome had a brief faint moment . Froome made efforts for a long time, and was able to fight with Pinot on the line .

[Big]

OK Wiggins is able to keep a high pace, but to judge him together with great names, I'd like to see what he can do when he's not protected and pulled by a team mate .

E.g. during a time trial??

Okay, I know what you are saying. However, being great in the mountains is only one way of doing it. Wiggins isn't the greatest there but neither is he incapable or nor undeserving of his lead (which he got in the first instance without support, and I don't see that he deserves any less respect for establishing his lead that way). The level of support may be exceptional and it's easy to knock him for it, but he still had to keep up with the pace they set - and when the likes of Cadel and F Schleck are dropping off I think that suggests he's not too bad.

[Guest]

Congrats to John's prediction about Rolland winning .

Cheers man, I just got a feeling for him before the stage and when he attacked out of nowhere with VDB on the previous stage to take 30 seconds, I just thought he's setting something up for tomorrow and wanting to improve his GC. Proved right. I had £2 on him at 10/1 so my rewards don't seem so great for getting such a great stage prediction correct.

Anyways onwards and upwards for todays stage..........predictions?

Obviously P. Sagan is going to be going for the intermediate sprint and possibly stage win but I'm also looking at guys who have not been involved in breaks over the recent days. I think a breakaway may win this one as-long as there is no GC threat because they were all on their limit yesterday so I am expecting a quiet day for the GC. It's also Bastille day on Saturday and a sprinters stage, so I'm expecting the French to maybe go out to get this one instead. Chavanel, Sandy Casar or Moncoutie from the french and either Sagan or Gilbert for the stage.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Today will definately be a breakaway win. I can't see Sky being too bothered about chasing down a breakaway, because Cav won't be up for the climb near the end, probably be up to Liquigas to chase them down for Sagan

[Guest]

The breakaway group doesn't contain anyone exciting so far.

[phildange]

John, I agree 20£ are not much for such an exploit !

About today's breakaway, Chavanel and Casar were very much cooked yesterday, and I don't know for today .
Apart from Fromme, a guy I'm starting to like a lot is this young Pinot . Maybe he can do something serious in the future .

[phildange]

Okay, I know what you are saying. However, being great in the mountains is only one way of doing it. Wiggins isn't the greatest there but neither is he incapable or nor undeserving of his lead (which he got in the first instance without support, and I don't see that he deserves any less respect for establishing his lead that way). The level of support may be exceptional and it's easy to knock him for it, but he still had to keep up with the pace they set - and when the likes of Cadel and F Schleck are dropping off I think that suggests he's not too bad.

As far as I remember, only great climbers have won the Tour, because it's only there you can make big gaps, even if in the last 2 decades there haven't been as big gaps as in the past . ITT matters too, but a bit less, again because of margins that can be done in both exercises . A very great climber could win even if average in ITT, the opposite is not true .
About Wiggins he's good . He's better than Frank and Cadel . I'd like to see him with Andy and Bertie to be sure how good he is, and also against Froome who really impressed me . What I hate is this business monopolistic enterprise I smell in Sky as in US Postal before . Taking many great climbers in one team to be sure you get your investment back . Those perfect team tactics, the ubiquitous use of radios, infuriate me . We never more happen to see any of those hugely exciting moments which made the Tour legend, a man vs man arena .

[phildange]

Moncoutié fell down heavily in the descent, and he won't start again . Exit Moncoutié poor chap .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Okay, I know what you are saying. However, being great in the mountains is only one way of doing it. Wiggins isn't the greatest there but neither is he incapable or nor undeserving of his lead (which he got in the first instance without support, and I don't see that he deserves any less respect for establishing his lead that way). The level of support may be exceptional and it's easy to knock him for it, but he still had to keep up with the pace they set - and when the likes of Cadel and F Schleck are dropping off I think that suggests he's not too bad.

As far as I remember, only great climbers have won the Tour, because it's only there you can make big gaps, even if in the last 2 decades there haven't been as big gaps as in the past . ITT matters too, but a bit less, again because of margins that can be done in both exercises . A very great climber could win even if average in ITT, the opposite is not true .
About Wiggins he's good . He's better than Frank and Cadel . I'd like to see him with Andy and Bertie to be sure how good he is, and also against Froome who really impressed me . What I hate is this business monopolistic enterprise I smell in Sky as in US Postal before . Taking many great climbers in one team to be sure you get your investment back . Those perfect team tactics, the ubiquitous use of radios, infuriate me . We never more happen to see any of those hugely exciting moments which made the Tour legend, a man vs man arena .

Sure Sky are helping Wiggins, but he is still winning the race himself. And it's not as if every tour winner does it by himself, everyone gets help from there domestiques, because that is what they are there for.

[Guest]

Moncoutie was one of my picks aswell for the stage, he would of has a right go today but obviously over did it. Shame.

[phildange]

[quote="Olly"][quote="phildange"]

Sure Sky are helping Wiggins, but he is still winning the race himself. And it's not as if every tour winner does it by himself, everyone gets help from there domestiques, because that is what they are there for.

For Christ's sake, it's a question of proportions . Leaders are helped, but there are just too many good climbers and riders with Wiggo, like with Lance . Other leaders have not as much assistance . And I remember recently Contador had not a lot of help . And if we go back in time we didn't see that . When a guy won the Tour he had to do it mainly by himself .

[phildange]

What a strange move from Bradley at the summit ! He had no tactical reason to drop everybody .
I wonder ... There are rumours about some possible tension between him and Chris Froome . The only reason I can see to explain his short attack on the top is that he wanted to show who is the boss . Funny moment .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Just probably wanted to show doubters that he is still the leader, and deserves to be in yellow. Doubters like you

[Eyetoldyouso]

[quote="phildange"][quote="Olly"]

Sure Sky are helping Wiggins, but he is still winning the race himself. And it's not as if every tour winner does it by himself, everyone gets help from there domestiques, because that is what they are there for.

For Christ's sake, it's a question of proportions . Leaders are helped, but there are just too many good climbers and riders with Wiggo, like with Lance . Other leaders have not as much assistance . And I remember recently Contador had not a lot of help . And if we go back in time we didn't see that . When a guy won the Tour he had to do it mainly by himself .

Greg LeMond was a domestique for Hinault and team also had Hampsten & Bauer. Indurain was a domestique for Delgado and that team was also very strong. The TDF winner has virually aways had very strong domestiques. Its part of the skill in building the team.

[Eyetoldyouso]

If Froome knows what's right for him he will stay at Sky. Nobody else can offer him the domestiques that Sky can. Next year Wiggins could work for Froome. Also Sky have a great set up, and he will be able to flourish among them

I would say that there is virtually no chance of Brad acting as domestique for Froome. It is just possible that there could be joint team leaders as in 1986 with LeMond and Hinault.

[Statto00]

I remember recently Contador had not a lot of help.

Apart from chemical, anyway.

[phildange]

[quote="Eyetoldyouso"][quote="phildange"]

Sure Sky are helping Wiggins, but he is still winning the race himself. And it's not as if every tour winner does it by himself, everyone gets help from there domestiques, because that is what they are there for.

For Christ's sake, it's a question of proportions . Leaders are helped, but there are just too many good climbers and riders with Wiggo, like with Lance . Other leaders have not as much assistance . And I remember recently Contador had not a lot of help . And if we go back in time we didn't see that . When a guy won the Tour he had to do it mainly by himself .

Greg LeMond was a domestique for Hinault and team also had Hampsten & Bauer. Indurain was a domestique for Delgado and that team was also very strong. The TDF winner has virually aways had very strong domestiques. Its part of the skill in building the team.

Again it's a matter of number and quality of "domestiques" . They are too many good ones in Sky . It would be more fun for us if some of them were rivals . And when I wrote "back in time" I was refering to earlier times . Everyday they show retros on French TV, and believe me in the 50s, 60s and 70s the Tour was thrilling . I started following it in the mid 60s and I remember .

About Brad, I like him very much as a person . They showed a long interview of him, and I appreciated what I saw and heard . A good old English proletarian, modest and laid back . His mates are musicians, he likes drinking and he can speak French . It's not his fault if he belongs to a stock exchange mafia . I'll be happy for him when he wins, but I'm not convinced he is one the "Greats" . Circumstances favour him this year and I'd like to see him struggling with a real challenge .

About Contador and doping, let's speak about Armstrong's gang, the "bike star" . But I didn't loathe him for that, as I already said here in France we always knew pro riders were under drugs . C'est comme ça . My griefs against Lance come from other reasons .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

I don't think anyone is suggesting Wiggins will go down as one of the 'greats' Phil mate. He is a very good Grand Tour rider, but not great.

[Guest]

Gautier to make it three in a row?

[Guest]

Just probably wanted to show doubters that he is still the leader, and deserves to be in yellow. Doubters like you

Wiggo is being hammered by the European press asking why "suddenly" he is favorite for the TdF - with strong suggestions of enhancements being made, both chemical and strong team assistance and luck (others being injured or not competing, others losing time through being in or behind crashes, or having punctures). It's the reason why Wiggo has been making statements about how he is deserving all this ... lots of hard work etc.

Some journos are even suggesting it is impossible to win such a race without taking chemical enhancements, which is an allegation almost impossible to rationally argue against - because it is a slur on the whole sport.

[Sponsored content]