Tour De France 2012 Discussion Thread

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

First topic message reminder :

I thought I would start the ball rolling on the TDF 2012. It is less than a week away now.

My predictions:
Yellow Jersey: Bradley Wiggins - Gotta go with the Brit
Green Jersey: Peter Sagan - Imperious form and I think Cav will go for stage wins not the Jersey
Polka dot jersey: Anyone's guess. Probably a Frenchman.
White Jersey: Again up in the air.
Best Team: Team Sky or BMC for me.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

David Millar wins the stage

WE RULE THE TOUR

[Guest]

Congrats to Millar for the stage win. Complete rest day for the peloton.

[Guest]

This is becoming the Tour de Brits - that's the fourth different Brit to win a stage this year ... Congratulations to David Millar

[Big]

Superb win for Millar - I'm very pleased with that!

[phildange]

Hum ... Big issue with the peloton sprint . All officials say it was clearly a fault by Goss . If he did on purpose, it was rather stupid because he seemed to have a good chance . It will be hard to get the green from Sagan now .

[dummy_half]

You do all realise that so far it has been a very poor tour for British-born riders:

One stage win for Cavendish, and even then you have the question of whether the Isle of Man really counts as British.

Froome isn't a Brit other than by ancestry - born in Kenya and raised there and South Africa.

Millar - Born Malta, raised at least in part in Hong Kong

Wiggins - Born in Ghent in Belgium. OK, raised in Britain of British parents, but just one of those little oddities like John MacEnroe having been born in Germany.

Best placed British born rider? Dan Martin, and he rides for Ireland

[phildange]

I thought Wiggins'father is Australian . Isn't he ?

[Guest]

dummy_half: well I didn't know about the B Wiggins and D. Millar details
... but I suppose it's like saying Napoleon wasn't French or something ...

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

You do all realise that so far it has been a very poor tour for British-born riders:

One stage win for Cavendish, and even then you have the question of whether the Isle of Man really counts as British.

Froome isn't a Brit other than by ancestry - born in Kenya and raised there and South Africa.

Millar - Born Malta, raised at least in part in Hong Kong

Wiggins - Born in Ghent in Belgium. OK, raised in Britain of British parents, but just one of those little oddities like John MacEnroe having been born in Germany.

Best placed British born rider? Dan Martin, and he rides for Ireland

I don't care, as long as they have the british flag next to there name, I will support them and they count as British

[djlovesyou]

Plastic Brits and all that. Don't tell the Daily Mail.

[Big]

You do all realise that so far it has been a very poor tour for British-born riders:

One stage win for Cavendish, and even then you have the question of whether the Isle of Man really counts as British.

Froome isn't a Brit other than by ancestry - born in Kenya and raised there and South Africa.

Millar - Born Malta, raised at least in part in Hong Kong

Wiggins - Born in Ghent in Belgium. OK, raised in Britain of British parents, but just one of those little oddities like John MacEnroe having been born in Germany.

Best placed British born rider? Dan Martin, and he rides for Ireland

Isle of Man at the very least is British, albeit as a crown dependency and not part of the United Kingdom - I think an Isle of Man passport states British Isle of Man. So he is very much British born.

Millar is also very much British, and I think technically British born. His Dad was stationed in Malta with the RAF. and while I'm not 100% certain I think that military bases count as territory of the nation they are hosting.

Wiggins was raised by his English mum and lived here from about 2 onwards, the fact that his mum happened to be living in Ghent for a few years round about the time he was born is peculiar but hardly means he is actually Belgian.

Even Froome, who is the best candidate for plastic Brit was (I believe) holding a Brit passport long before deciding to ride for us.

All of which is largely academic. As someone who has travelled and lived abroad I don't really see where somebody is born as the only way to determine their nationality.

[djlovesyou]

I think dummy_half's post was tongue in cheek. I don't think for a second he was suggesting that these guys are not British.

[Guest]

I thought the Irish were the true "Brits" along with some Welsh and the Picts and some Scots. Maybe there are a few left in Cornwall too. The rest were those German / Viking interlopers (the jutes, the angles, the saxons, the danes, the norse men ...).

Even the original celts were a germanic trade, and they themselves apparently came from indo-iran or somewhere ....

Plastic Brits the lot of them

[Big]

Fair enough, knowing when people are/aren't joking is always more of a problem with forum discussions... apologies for any bluntness in my response!

[phildange]

Yes the only real Brits are the Standing Stones People, those who succeeded to Atlantis .

[Guest]

Big: I thought your comment was interesting and added extra information especially the bit about military bases possibly counting as territory of the nation they are hosting. It was only the last sentence of your comment that suggested you hadn't fully noticed the dummy_half added to the end of his comment.

[phildange]

Classy action from Wiggins when he became the best domestique for his team mate Boasson Hagen's chance to make the sprint for the win .
I also appreciated his cold blood when Cadel attacked in the Mont St-Clair .
He will make a pleasant winner .

[dummy_half]

Definitely was meant as a non-serious comment, just highlighting an oddity (and a shame for my 'point' that Charlie Wegeluis has retired, as he was born in Finland but rode for the UK).

The only one I don't really consider as a Brit is Frrome, as he started his race career under the flag of Kenya and has only (legitimately but slightly opportunistically) changed to the UK a couple of years ago (presumably because it allowed him better access to UK Cycling's training facilities).

Another decent day for Wiggins - kept his head when Cadel got off the front on the climb, and worked his way back without too much effort.

[Guest]

...Another decent day for Wiggins - kept his head when Cadel got off the front on the climb, and worked his way back without too much effort.

Another demonstration of Wiggins pursuiting skills.

[Guest]

It's painful watching Evans this year. He attacks like he's stuck in mud, absolutely no threat to Wiggins whatsoever. You just know everytime he attacks he realises about ten seconds later that he's got nothing in the legs and Wiggins just reels him in with ease. It's getting to the point for Nibali to decide whether he wants to win or just a podium place. Expecting him to attack on tomorrow's descent's and really test Wiggins because it's been a stroll up to now for Wiggins.

Prediction for stage 14 - Obviously totally dependent on who can get in the break but my 'three to watch' are Jeremy Roy, Rui Costa or the improving Juan Jose Cobo who legs seem to be coming to him.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Thing is John, Nibali is quite far behind already. 2 and a half mins I believe???

And with the ITT he would need a lead of at least a minute and a half on Wiggins, so he would need to make up 4 minutes on Wiggins at least, and I cant see that happening (unless something bad happens to Wiggins)

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Disgrace from the cycling fans out there today. Throwing tacs onto the road is just pure stupidity. Pierre Rolland also showing no etiquette by attacking when the peleton was waiting for Evans after the flat tyre. Should imagine he won't be the most loved person in the peloton tonight

Well done to Luis Leon Sanchez on the stage win

Also I can guarantee the Tour will not be heading back to that area anytime soon due to the tacs on the road incident

[phildange]

Rolland attacked from the summit and didn't know about the punctures and what happened behind him . The road was narrow, the cars were far behind, as we could see with Evans who had to wait for his car and radios communications didn't pass . When finally he got the information he stopped and waited for the peloton .
There must have been several guys throwing tacs because there were some in different places, about 30 victim riders . Organized trick . But nobody can say if they were from the region, there are many tourists in the Pyrenees in July .
When the Tour understood there had been a criminal act, managers and team cars started helping any punctured rider, even not from their team . Good that .
Deserved and very strong win for Sanchez after all his previous attempts .

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Sorry Phil but you are wrong about Rolland. He attacked on the descent, and you could see the Sky riders waving at him in disgust. But to be fair to him, he did wait up at the end

[Guest]

Wiggins had a puncture - threw his bike on the verge and picked up a new one. Maybe the tacs were a french protest against the Brits being 1 and 2 in the TdF. Wiggins had someone bang a flare against his arm in the last stage or maybe it was the one before that.

[phildange]

That's what Rolland and his manager said on TV, and he stopped to wait for the group so I believe him . Radios didn't go through . When Rolland attacked he didn't look back . Having heard him several times in interviews I can say it doesn't look like him to attack a wounded rival .
The supposal of French protesting is utterly unwarranted and rather mean . Nothing shows the act was done by French people first, there are people from everywhere on the road, and it's been so long since last time there were great French riders people are used to it .
More, Wiggins is rather liked in France, it would have been more logical to do this in Armstrong's time .
The guys who did that are not cycling fans . It could have been dangerous . The Astana rider Kicherlovsky (?) quitted the Tour and I don't know if he fell down because of a puncture . Maybe people who live there and are fed up with all the hassle they have to bear every year, or just bad teens as there are now everywhere .
30 riders had punctures, guessing it's a French act of jealousy reminds me Fox News kind of "information" . But well I don't know, there maybe are tabloids readers on this board .

[Guest]

Ah oui je comprends maintenant. Vous habitez dans le foret enorme ou sud-ouest de france.

[Big]

I'm inclined to agree with Phil there. The major flaw in the logic that it may be prompted by a Brit 1-2 is that however much some there dislike us, in my experience they dislike the Americans and Lance even more! If it didn't happen for him I'm pretty confident it's nothing to do with Wiggins and Froome doing well this time. Plain stupidity is clearly a major factor, whatever the reason the culprit thinks they have.

[Big]

Reading the news this morning in reference to Froome's chat with L'Equipe. Seems like typical journalistic stirring to me. What else is Froome meant to say without giving rubbish non-answers?? From a neutral perspective surely we would expect Froome to attack the others in the unlikely event that Wiggins burnt out, crashed out or for any other reason looked likely to lose the lead. We would also expect that if the course suited Froome better next year the team would back him. I'm not even convinced it suggests friction when he says he sees Wiggins as a straight guy how would support him in the future in return for the work this year. If there is any headline it would need to be that a sportsman has given an honest opinion rather than bland twaddle.

Any friction would surely be with Cav if anyone, as I'm sure he will want his green jersey back next year, with backing from the team to do that. Unless the plan is to do a slightly better job in the Giro and complete his set, could then perhaps have a light mid-season and go for the Vuelta. While it does him credit to see that he is willing to collect water bottles and ride at the front setting the pace for others, I'm sure there is at least a part of him that wants to be winning stages again.

[whocares]

Cavendish, the best spinter of all time according to l'equipe, could almost win green jerseys on its own in the last few years but it will be interesting to see how he copes with Greipel and specially an "all round" sprinter like Sagan who could be getting points in all kind of stages. On the other hand Sagan might develop in a kind of Jalabert or Gilbert which would make him less of a threat to Cav.

The Froome itw was quite interesting as it was full of honesty and gave some insight on the character and what he has been through: as a side note he sees himself as much as an African than an Englishman. Although he would of course like to be the 1st brit to win the TDF, he knew that Bradley was always going to be the leader when he resigned for Sky and to be honest Bradley will certainly unleash him if he was about to lose too much time against Nibali or Evans (same happened in the vuelta last year albeit a bit too late). his time will come and agree with you Big, there is not much controversy or friction to be seen here.

[LuvSports!]

its in an interesting situation for sky next year i think.
will froome leave to be the leader of another team?
will he become the leader of sky?

personally i feel in terms of strength this year's tour isn't the best it has been in recent years with a schleck and contador not in it.
I would love it if he stayed but was given more freedom to go for it next year or at least be given as much support as wiggo because you feel froome really wants to attack on these climbs heading into the pyrenees.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Froome would be stupid to leave Sky. Dave Brailsford isn't an idiot, he will promote Froome next season I am sure. And look at the riders Froome has around him at Sky. It is unlikely he would get that at any other team.

Anyway I am going for Cavendish to win today. Hopefully!

[Big]

After the Olympics I'm assuming Cav will return his focus to more conventional sprints and put a bit of muscle back on. I'm pretty sure that if he does that he will be able to out-do Greipel. He really needs some team support though, even if not to the extent of HTC he needs a few riders to keep him out of trouble in the last few km - between the Giro and Tour he's had a fair few incidents in the closing stages. Sagan is more of a challenge though. Cav may be able to beat him in the flat sprints and intermediates, but like Hushovd a few years back he won't be able to respond when Sagan gets in a breakaway or stays with the lead group to the finish on the intermediate stages. All assuming Sagan doesn't adjust his training and go for GCs... I'm no sports scientist but on performances to date I'm guessing he could do it. Thinking about it it is a shame Hushovd isn't involved this year, I expect Sagan would come out on top but it would be good to see them go head to head.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Well Cav has Eisel and EBH to keep him out of trouble today. He doesn't need a huge leadout, just someone to keep him up there until around the last km, and then he can do it himself as he showed at the World Championships and when Renshaw got kicked off the Tour

[Guest]

Absolutely mental pace today so far, constant attacks and no break confirmed as of yet.

[whocares]

well this is an unusual short stage given its flat...so at least it is lively which EBH and other sky riders dont seem to enjoy!

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

What a crap stage. Sky must have been loving it, another easy day before the Pyrenees. Orica Green Edge and Lotto should have been going for something there and taken up the front

[Mike Selig]

Obviously Sky have decided to focus all on Wiggins which isn't surprising. Surprised none of the other teams took it in them to chase the break-away, but actually quite nice for a breakaway to win on the flat from time to time.

Well done Fédrigo, very good racer in a small group such as that one. No idea why ITV ever thought Vandevelde stood a chance against him. Voeckler wasn't prepared to chase down the 2 on his own (it's said he's good friends with Fédrigo, so presumably that played a part).

France having a good tour (obviously not as good as GB), 2 riders in the top 10 and 4 stage wins so far.

[JDizzle]

Yeah, Wiggins interview with ITV said it all. He praised Cav for all the work he has done for team, and he has done a lot of good work even if he hasn't been pacemaking like a Rogers or a Porte, but basically said Sky won't be committing to giving him any support on stages till Paris now, which is fair enough as the getting the Yellow Jersey is king.

[Guest]

"Wiggins, nicknamed 'Le Gentleman' by French media for his part in neutralising the race after Sunday's sabotage attack when tacks were thrown in the road, had a largely uneventful day after suffering an early puncture."

"I don't think it is down to us to do all the work at the moment with the Pyrenees coming up," Team Sky principal Dave Brailsford told BBC Radio 5 live.

"It makes sense for us to conserve our energy a little bit or share the workload. But the other teams don't want to share the work, so we conserved our energy."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/18862759

Is Cavendish learning anything on this tour? Maybe being part of a team that will likely make history might be enough. And as dj has said if it wasn't for Wiggins etc it would be unlikely that he would be wearing the rainbow jersey.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Cav has said on twitter himself, that this tour his aim was to get the yellow jersey for Wiggins.

Mark Cavendish ‏@MarkCavendish
Funny emotions tonight. Regardless how many stages we win this year, I won't be happy unless we have the yellow jersey in Paris ‪#allezwiggo‬

[Mike Selig]

This year is a bit different because Cavendish has openly said his main ambition is the Olympics and has adapted his training schedule for that. Moreover until now Froome was relatively unknown of the general public (he shouldn't have been after his ride in the Vuelta, but he was) so could have no reasonable ambitions of being team leader.

All this has meant that the Sky team has been well oiled and all pulling in the same direction. Wiggins is obviously the form rider, with obviously the best team around him, and this has led to a very professional job (so far - unless Wiggins inexplicably "blows" or Nibali comes up with an attack from miles on Wednesday's stage a la Landis it's hard to see what could take this away from Wiggins now). It has also meant a rather dull TdF. This is not unusual, and not helped by a pretty uninspiring route - we've heard in the past the way to make the TdF exciting is to have a lot of TTing so the climbers have to attack early and often on the mountain stages but then you need a) climbers and b) mountain-top finishes or at least finishes after a short sharp descent. However it has been exacerbated by the fact that Wiggins is no Armstrong, and despite employing team Armstrong tactics he hasn't dominated the tour in the way Armstrong used to.

It will be interesting to see what will happen next year. Cavendish will surely not accept being a mere domestique (and nor should he) whilst the Froome question is interesting: when Armstrong was dominating a lot of people thought Heras could challenge him, but we saw how that worked out when Heras left USP (of course, there were no doubt other factors which meant Heras performed less well without his team...). Certainly Froome if he leaves won't have the luxury of the team he has now. But equally certainly he shouldn't be happy at merely helping out Wiggins next time around also.

Sky have some ego-massaging to do next year basically.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

This year is a bit different because Cavendish has openly said his main ambition is the Olympics and has adapted his training schedule for that. Moreover until now Froome was relatively unknown of the general public (he shouldn't have been after his ride in the Vuelta, but he was) so could have no reasonable ambitions of being team leader.

All this has meant that the Sky team has been well oiled and all pulling in the same direction. Wiggins is obviously the form rider, with obviously the best team around him, and this has led to a very professional job (so far - unless Wiggins inexplicably "blows" or Nibali comes up with an attack from miles on Wednesday's stage a la Landis it's hard to see what could take this away from Wiggins now). It has also meant a rather dull TdF. This is not unusual, and not helped by a pretty uninspiring route - we've heard in the past the way to make the TdF exciting is to have a lot of TTing so the climbers have to attack early and often on the mountain stages but then you need a) climbers and b) mountain-top finishes or at least finishes after a short sharp descent. However it has been exacerbated by the fact that Wiggins is no Armstrong, and despite employing team Armstrong tactics he hasn't dominated the tour in the way Armstrong used to.

It will be interesting to see what will happen next year. Cavendish will surely not accept being a mere domestique (and nor should he) whilst the Froome question is interesting: when Armstrong was dominating a lot of people thought Heras could challenge him, but we saw how that worked out when Heras left USP (of course, there were no doubt other factors which meant Heras performed less well without his team...). Certainly Froome if he leaves won't have the luxury of the team he has now. But equally certainly he shouldn't be happy at merely helping out Wiggins next time around also.

Sky have some ego-massaging to do next year basically.

You raise some very good points Mike. This TDF was always going to be pretty dull looking at the route, I mean take tomorrow's stage for example, why not just have it finish on the last mountain at the summit??

Anyway I believe next year Sky might go with Froome for the Giro or the Vuelta, and have a real crack at one of them with him as leader. It has been well documented that Froome maybe doesn't have the character to be a proper leader like Wiggins, which is why probably this year is Wiggins's year.

Next TDF who Sky with is anyone's guess. However it is not exactly a bad problem to have with British Cycling at the moment

[Guest]

Tomorrow's stage is the big one and I'm looking forward to it. I'm fully expecting Wiggins rivals to attack early and dismantle his train of Porte & Rodgers, it's now or never. Do you think the stage will be one by a GC contender or a breakway?

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

I would say that Nibali is the only real threat to Wiggins. Evans doesn't have the legs, and doesn't look capable of anything apart from pointless attacks.

Tomorrow will be a breakaway, I can't see Nibali going for it until the last climb, or the final descent. And Sky won't chase the like of Ven Den Brook too heavily, they will ride a nice constant pace, so they can keep Porte and Rogers for longer

[Mike Selig]

Evans would need at least 4 minutes in 2 stages - as Olly says I don't think he's got the legs this year unless Wiggins blows (and Froome is asked to help him).

Nibali and even Van den Broeck are probably more natural climbers, who could launch a long-range attack; the thing is I doubt they will, they are probably more looking at a podium place than the overall win so don't want to blow.

I reckon Evans may try something from way out - he doesn't have much to lose having already as many 2nd places as he'll ever need. The thing is I can't see him getting more than a minute and a half, and unless he gets his advantage up to 3 minutes on the first couple of climbs Sky won't have to chase earlier than necessary. And they'll get plenty of help from Liquidas.

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Another thing we have to remember is that these guys need to make up the time to Wiggins, but they also need to build a quite significant lead before the ITT where Wiggins is strongest. And I can't see those types of time gaps coming

[Mike Selig]

Don't forget that the last ITT is a very specific event in a TdF or GT in general (remember Sastre holding on against Evans, or A. Schleck a couple of years back TTing like he had no right to) and doesn't depend so much on pure TTing but also freshness and the Yellow Jersey factor - if Evans has anything like a 20 or 30 sec lead he could hang on if he's got the right legs. Nibali probably needs a minute, but who knows? The trouble is I don't see Evans even keeping up with the Sky train, and Nibali is probably happy with just a podium place. Froome of course could have a crack on the final mountain stage...

[Good Golly I'm Olly]

Don't forget that the last ITT is a very specific event in a TdF or GT in general (remember Sastre holding on against Evans, or A. Schleck a couple of years back TTing like he had no right to) and doesn't depend so much on pure TTing but also freshness and the Yellow Jersey factor - if Evans has anything like a 20 or 30 sec lead he could hang on if he's got the right legs. Nibali probably needs a minute, but who knows? The trouble is I don't see Evans even keeping up with the Sky train, and Nibali is probably happy with just a podium place. Froome of course could have a crack on the final mountain stage...

I think Wiggins still has good legs, and considering the length of this ITT (51KM) I believe he could be getting gaps of over a minute on his rivals. Froome won't, not this year

Also remember the climbs in The Pyranees suits a climber like Wiggins. They suit more powerful climbers like Wiggins. I think the likes of Evans and Nibali have missed there chance in The Alps, where Wiggins was most vulnerable IMO

[dummy_half]

Another thing we have to remember is that these guys need to make up the time to Wiggins, but they also need to build a quite significant lead before the ITT where Wiggins is strongest. And I can't see those types of time gaps coming

Judging from the performances in the first ITT (OK, I know that can be a false assumption because of how riders fatigue over the course of the race), Evans would have to take a lead of 3 minutes plus into the TT to be confident of retaining the jersey - this is a longer TT and on a pretty much flat course (there's only 50m elevation change between the lowest and highest points, and even this change is very gradual), so would be better suited to a genuine TT rider (Wiggins) than to a climber that TTs ok (like Evans or Nibali).

Basically, unless Wiggins cracks badly in the next two days, I don't see his competitors gaining enough time on him - tomorrow is a tough stage, but the finish is at the end of the descent so it's unlikely there will be big time gaps (in fact I wouldn't be surprised to see the group of GC riders all finishing together), while Thursday is not as tough a stage but ends with two big and close together climbs so might see some more attacking tactics from the pure climbers - however, much of the stage is relatively easy and the last climb is not really that tough.

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