Next season, optimism or pessimism ?

Well now the dust has settled from the summer tours it is now silly season, who are we signing? Who is going ? So, what are we looking for next season ? As a Welshman I could not be more optimistic, the Ospreys are announcing record season ticket sales, the Blues are moving back to the CAP, a lot of dead wood being shed by our regions and Wales for a moment reaching the giddy heights of 4th in the world albeit for a week. So for next season I am hoping the Ospreys continue their good form from the back end of last season and take the Rabbo by storm and as a minimum I expect them to get out of their HC group, especially now the young players have had a whole season to learn what it is all about, and with the pack they have they should be a challenge for any team in Europe, they have already beaten the European champs in their own back yard and absolutely tooled Munster at the Liberty, hopefully next season will see some big crowds to boost the performances even further. As for the Blues, well they are moving back to the CAP and with a more passionate crowd and some astute signings I think they could be the surprise package from Wales next season, they have signed a decent outside half in Jason Tovey a position that has been a problem for them since they have formed, perhaps he can get Cuthbert, Harry Robinson, Leigh Halfpenny and Jamie Roberts finally running at players with pace, and with a new head coach/director of rugby perhaps he can freshen things up at the capital, the Scarlets need to sign a few brutes in the pack but they have the backs that can do some damage, they will be looking at the Ospreys and they will not like what they see and will try and emulate them in both crowd numbers and on the field performances, I hope Simon Easterby can instill some iron into the side as they do tend to lack the aggression needed to tough out games, but I think they could make the play offs in the Rabbo and they could get into the Amlin and give it a good run. The Dragons look to be promoting from within and if they can keep hold of the decent prospects they are blooding then I would be more optimistic about them for next season, but with Lydiate and Faletau signing contract extensions perhaps that will give some of the other players a lift, and if they can make one or two marquee signings then who knows ? Now, for the big one, Wales, I would like us to win at least three of our four Autumn tests, perhaps finally take the Aussies after trying for so long, and perhaps get to the 4th ranked spot again, and then in the six nations, with Ireland and England at Cardiff I would like us to at least finish at the top of the competition, a grand slam would be nice , but ultimately I do not think we will win in Paris although I am not writing it off. Also I would like to see some of our impressive U20's players get given some game time next season, I hope to see Samson Lee get a few games, so all in all I am being a bit of a glass half full person. So there we are, what do you expect from your respective unions next season ?

Realistically I don't think the regions are going to produce too much next season. I believe that with the best players available all the regions are very capable, however with the internationals missing from them they suddenly all appear to have some pretty big gaps (not so much with the Dragons, but still key players none the less). Also the european draw has not been kind on the Ospreys or Scarlets. I would think finishing second and dropping into the Amlin would be a good result for them. Also the Dragons have had a bit of a harsh draw (again) in the Amlin, and would probably be happy with exiting the group. I think that the Blues are probably the best hope for the region next season. They have only really lost deadwood and aging players (bar geth) and with Phil Davies, who seems to be a quick improvement style coach, i think they may well get through their group in the HEC and get into te Rabo play offs. SO my predicitons for the competitions are

HEC - Blues (QF), Scarlets & Ospreys out in the group stage
Amlin - Dragons out in the group stage
Rabo - Blues and Ospreys (possibly) play-offs. Scarlets & Dragons battle for HEC spot.
LV= - 1 or 2 semi-finalists, but not sure who.

Also as for attendances, I think there will be a sudden increase in attendances, but if the teams don't perform I wouldn't be suprised to see the stadiums as empty as last season again.

Dowlais, i think the Ospreys would do very well to come second in their group

gowales wrote:Dowlais, i think the Ospreys would do very well to come second in their group

Lads, you heard it here first, the Ospreys will not only get out of their group, but they will top it and go through. Remember, if this side can beat Leinster away, then they can beat anybody. Don't forget, there will be no stupid out of international window game for Wales this year, so our regions will not be disrupted in the HC as they were last year. All you lot need is a bit of PMA, positive, mental, attitude.

Dowlais - that game against Aus messed things up in the Rabo more than it did in the HEC. I can understand your thinking about the Ospreys chances in the HEC, however the Ospreys have lost the scrummaging power of Paul James, and have also lost three of their four frontline hookers (Mefin Davies, Bennett, and Baldwin). Then in the backline they have lost two of their most reliable finishers (Williams and Bowe). I appreciate that not all of those were involved in the Rabo Final, but that must impact of the Ospreys options, especially for the bench.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Dowlais - that game against Aus messed things up in the Rabo more than it did in the HEC. I can understand your thinking about the Ospreys chances in the HEC, however the Ospreys have lost the scrummaging power of Paul James, and have also lost three of their four frontline hookers (Mefin Davies, Bennett, and Baldwin). Then in the backline they have lost two of their most reliable finishers (Williams and Bowe). I appreciate that not all of those were involved in the Rabo Final, but that must impact of the Ospreys options, especially for the bench.

They have better players coming through the system, do you honestly think they would some of those players go if they didn't have enough faith in the players replacing them ? O.k Shane Williams is a little different as he was retiring, and is hard to replace, but Tommy Bowe hardly played last season due to sickness and when he did he was nowhere near what you would expect from him, also do you really think Bennet is a huge loss ? The Ospreys have an embarrassing amount of talent coming through the ranks and I am glad they are taking advantage of it rather than letting it all go to waste like previous regimes done, with the likes of Halfpenny and Mitchell going to different clubs because they could not get in because of the galacticos who were there.

Lord - I guess you have Bevington to fill in the gap left by James, and Dirkson is doing a good job on the wing (replacement for Bowe). However who is coming through at hooker? Because the only name that I can think of is Hibbard, and he will be with Wales and most likely get knocks etc. Its not a pop, just a reason why I think the Ospreys will struggle in the HEC this season.

Spiderman,
Scott Baldwin is the other hooker in the squad and he looks like a tidy prospect.
We could do with some more depth in second row though, so we don't have to play JT and RJ together like we did in the Saracens match!

My main concern however is the backs and the back three in particular. I don't have much faith in Eli Walker or Luke Morgan and i'm not completley sold on Ross Jones as fullback, he doesn't look like anything more than a solid regional player to me. I'm disappointed they let Phillips and Prydie go because for me they are much better players than Walker and Morgan, but i guess i'm not a coach. We're going to be light in the centres as well.

Dowlais, do you think the Ospreys can challenge on 3 fronts with the reduced squad they have this season? They got rid of some deadwood but theres also the likes of Shane Williams and Tommy Bowe leaving.

gowales wrote:Spiderman,
Scott Baldwin is the other hooker in the squad and he looks like a tidy prospect.
We could do with some more depth in second row though, so we don't have to play JT and RJ together like we did in the Saracens match!

My main concern however is the backs and the back three in particular. I don't have much faith in Eli Walker or Luke Morgan and i'm not completley sold on Ross Jones as fullback, he doesn't look like anything more than a solid regional player to me. I'm disappointed they let Phillips and Prydie go because for me they are much better players than Walker and Morgan, but i guess i'm not a coach. We're going to be light in the centres as well.

Ross Jones had a very good U20 world cup, he along with Samson Lee was one of the stand out players, he looks very solid under the high ball, he has a very good kick on him and is fast, he is still young and needs to put on a few pounds so that he can tackle harder but other than that I think he is a very exciting prospect.

goWales - I thought that Baldwin was laving ( https://www.606v2.com/t25887-scott-baldwin-leaving-the-ospreys ) although that said he has gotten game time since then, and with Bennet and Mef leaving i guess he may have done a U-Turn.

I think your in very good position for half backs with Webb and Biggar and then Habberfield (he is yours?) and Morgan as back-up. It may just take a bit of time for people to grow into their roles in the centres and wide backs.

profitius wrote:Dowlais, do you think the Ospreys can challenge on 3 fronts with the reduced squad they have this season? They got rid of some deadwood but theres also the likes of Shane Williams and Tommy Bowe leaving.

Shane Williams will be missed, but Bowe hardly played last season and when he did he was below par. There are a lot of good youngsters at the Ospreys and they have a pack that can match anyone in Europe, I am very confident they can challange on at least two fronts, the HC and Rabbo, and they will give the LV a go but do not excpect fireworks from them as you can expect to see more of the younger players being blooded in the Rabbo.

Of all the competitions I do think the LV= is probably going to be the best for most the regions. We all seem to have a heap of young talent, and we also have a handful of not quite international standard players too. So fingers crossed the LV= will be the place where the experienced non-international (Jon Thomas, Gareth Maule, Thom James, Adam Jones etc) can get a run ot with the youngsters and help bring them through for next season.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Of all the competitions I do think the LV= is probably going to be the best for most the regions. We all seem to have a heap of young talent, and we also have a handful of not quite international standard players too. So fingers crossed the LV= will be the place where the experienced non-international (Jon Thomas, Gareth Maule, Thom James, Adam Jones etc) can get a run ot with the youngsters and help bring them through for next season.

Come where's your ambition, there are bigger prizes than the LV, I think we might get two sides quarter finalists in the HC and I think we might get at least two sides in the playoffs, anyway, if either the Scarlets, Ospreys or Blues drop down into the Amlin I think one of them would win it.

LordDowlais wrote:

profitius wrote:Dowlais, do you think the Ospreys can challenge on 3 fronts with the reduced squad they have this season? They got rid of some deadwood but theres also the likes of Shane Williams and Tommy Bowe leaving.

Shane Williams will be missed, but Bowe hardly played last season and when he did he was below par. There are a lot of good youngsters at the Ospreys and they have a pack that can match anyone in Europe, I am very confident they can challange on at least two fronts, the HC and Rabbo, and they will give the LV a go but do not excpect fireworks from them as you can expect to see more of the younger players being blooded in the Rabbo.

They can beat anyone on their day but when you see so many players leaving it has to weaken the squad although there isn't much deadwood floating around now. The young players will need time to get up to speed. They're also in a very hard HEC group. Even Treviso are strengthening.

I think next season is too early for the Ospreys but that doesn't mean they can't have a good season.

A big effect this season Lord Dowlais will be the depth, last year you had an improving Dirksen and Walker to cover for Bowe and Williams when they were away/injured - but this year who will cover for Dirksen/Walker when they are injured (Fussell iis already covering FB) - the same with LH, When James was away with Wales Bevington was good cover (or to come on after 60mins) but with Bev starting every/most games whose going to cover him, especially if he gets called up to the 6N's?

That I think is where people feel the Ospreys have been weakened - they maybe able to cover the players that left, but it leaves their squad weaker over all.

Sorry to be pessimistic, but can't see the Scarlets getting a good 2nd spot in their HEC group to get into the Amlin - we've had easier groups and not done that.
Ospreys will struggle to get out of their HEC group - and if they put all their eggs into the HEC and do really well and win their group then I imagine their league form will suffer (and even more of their team will get called up to Wales, hitting their league form further).

With the Blues I think it depends on how their new front row beds down and how Tovey kicks on, they could qualify but then again...

Smirnoffpriest wrote:A big effect this season Lord Dowlais will be the depth, last year you had an improving Dirksen and Walker to cover for Bowe and Williams when they were away/injured - but this year who will cover for Dirksen/Walker when they are injured (Fussell iis already covering FB) - the same with LH, When James was away with Wales Bevington was good cover (or to come on after 60mins) but with Bev starting every/most games whose going to cover him, especially if he gets called up to the 6N's?

That I think is where people feel the Ospreys have been weakened - they maybe able to cover the players that left, but it leaves their squad weaker over all.

I think you might be forgetting about good old Duncan Jones.

:facepalm: of course!

But you see my point, instead of P James, Bevs and Duncs at LH you now have Bevs and Duncs

Smirnoffpriest wrote: of course!

But you see my point, instead of P James, Bevs and Duncs at LH you now have Bevs and Duncs

I'll take that. Bevington is the closest prop we have in Wales to Gethin, and he is a better scrummager. Also I cannot see the powers to be letting Nikki Walker, Tommy Bowe, Shane Williams, Kristian Phillips and Tom Prydie go without some sort of plan up their sleeves.

LordDowlais wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Of all the competitions I do think the LV= is probably going to be the best for most the regions. We all seem to have a heap of young talent, and we also have a handful of not quite international standard players too. So fingers crossed the LV= will be the place where the experienced non-international (Jon Thomas, Gareth Maule, Thom James, Adam Jones etc) can get a run ot with the youngsters and help bring them through for next season.

Come where's your ambition, there are bigger prizes than the LV, I think we might get two sides quarter finalists in the HC and I think we might get at least two sides in the playoffs, anyway, if either the Scarlets, Ospreys or Blues drop down into the Amlin I think one of them would win it.

I think that all the regions have a good amount of young talent that is possibly not quite ready to fill the boots of hte more experienced players that have left. That is why I strongly believe we should all do well in the LV=, but (and I would love to be wrong) not in the HEC.