Olympic Betting

First topic message reminder :

With the Olympics only a week away I thought I'd give a quick preview of the competition. I've always found there is quite a lot of value in betting on amateur tournaments, with bookies maybe not as clued up on the amateurs as they should be. All odds are with Paddy Power unless stated.

At Light Flyweight, I can't see anything other than a win for Zou Shiming. The Chinese boxer is the defending Champion and three time World Champion. He's 17/10 to defend his title and after watching him last year, I can't see past him barring injury. If you are looking for a dark horse, Mark Barriga of the Philippines, is 100/1 to win. Defeated Paddy Barnes at the Worlds before running into Shiming in the next round. Barnes is 20/1 with Skybet.

At Flyweight, my pick is Andrew Selby. He's the European champion and World silver Medallist. Home advantage counts for an awful lot in the amateurs and is a great price at 7/2. My dark Horse would be Conlan of Ireland. He's 14/1 with Skybet and really is improving with each bout. Lost by a point to Selby at the Worlds and has taken some serious scalps at international level. The Irish will have a big following as well, as this the closest thing to a home Olympics they are likely to face.

At Bantam, the Cuban Alvarez is the man to beat. He's 5/2 with Skybet, but I like Luke Campbell at 6/1 with PP. Massive at the weight and again has home advantage it's worth a £5 of any man's money. Nevin of Ireland is 8/1 with Skybet and he should be there or there about come medal time.

Can't see past Lomachenko at lightweight. He's 5/6 and for a good reason. Supposedly he's only lost once in his life, the 2007 World Amateur final, and has racked up over 300 wins. Interestingly, he lost to a Brazilian in the World Championships but the result was overturned in favour of Loma. The Brazilian is 100/1 with Skybet to win Gold, and that's worth a pound considering he gave Loma his closest fight. Josh Taylor is 50/1 but I can't see him getting near the final.

At Light-Welter, the World Champion is Lopes of Brazil. I wasn't to impressed with him in Baku though and my pick is Iglesias the Cuban. He's 10/1 with Skybet, which is the bet of the tournament in my eyes. He lost to the Ukrainian silver medallist on countback at Baku, which could have gone either way. He's also defeated Lopes the previous two times they have met. Tom Stalker is 4/1, which is a bit too short in my opinion.

At Welter, Shelestyuk (Ukr) and Sapiyev (Kaz) are the two favourites. I like Fred Evans at 16/1 though. Was KO'd in Baku in the QF's but is also the Current European Champion. Classy boxer and again has home advantage. Adam Nolan of Ireland is 40/1, and I can't see him troubling the top guys.

At Middle, I like the look of Attoev the Uzbek. He's a former World Champion, lost in the first round in Baku to the eventual silver medalist Murata of Japan by KO. He was leading at the point of the stoppage, and KO's don't happen all that open in the Amateurs. He's 7-1 with PP. O'Neill of Ireland will be there or there abouts and is 16/1. Ogogo is 25/1, but struggles with consistency and recently with injuries.

At 81kg, La Cruz the Cuban is the outstanding fighter. He's 13/8 with PP to add Olympic Gold to his World Championships Gold. Hooper of Australia is a decent price at 9/1, but he's a bit of loose cannon (Azania would love him). No GB or Irish fighter at the weight either.

Can't look past Usyk at Heavy, he's 9/4. Russo is the defending champ and current WSB champ, and is 5/1 shot. Again no GB or Irish competitors.

Joshua will go far at Super Heavy. It's one of the weaker divisions and he is improving all the time. He's 15/8. If defending Champ Roberto Camarelle can rekindle the form of old he's is a good price at 9/2, whilst Felix Savon's nephew, Erislandy, is 5/1.

In the Womens I can't see past the World Champs, Katie Taylor and Savannah Marshall, at lightweight and Middleweight respectively. It really is a toss up between Cancan and Nicola Adams at Flyweight.

I've gone for a quad of Zou, Lomachenko, La Cruz and Katie Taylor. It's currently paying 13/1, but I got it at 15/1. I've also got a few quid on Iglesias at Light-welter.


Edit, some prices have changed since the time of writing.

Hate to interupt your Elton John love in, but Paddy Barnes has been defeated on Countback by Zou after tieing 15-15. Gutted for him

Hakuna Matata

What a wonderful phrase

bellchees wrote:There is a worrying amount of Elton John knowledge on this thread.

I think there might have been a spike in Google searches of 'Elton John songs' earlier.

I think there might have been a spike in Google searches of 'Elton John songs' earlier..

I mistyped and searched for "Elton John's shlong". Some strange things on the internet.

6oldenbhoy wrote:Hate to interupt your Elton John love in, but Paddy Barnes has been defeated on Countback by Zou after tieing 15-15. Gutted for him

Just watched it. Good fight. The Chinese guy was slick, but Barnes was like a terrier in that last round. If the pressure had translated to just a few more clean punches, then he'd have taken that.

Luke Campbell in to the final. He outclassed his Japanese opponent. A number of clean, straight punches right down the pipe in round 3.

GBR vs IRE in the final.

Ogoggo out in the semis. Got steamrolled by a hard-punching Brazilian - knocked down twice in the 3rd.

Big Joshua had a great fight in his semi final. Aggressive, but restrained at the same time. First time I've watched him and been truely impressed. Some nice quick, powerful uppercuts on the inside that made me think of a more of a pro style.

hahaha! Usyk's celebration was stormin'

Boxtthis wrote:Big Joshua had a great fight in his semi final. Aggressive, but restrained at the same time. First time I've watched him and been truely impressed. Some nice quick, powerful uppercuts on the inside that made me think of a more of a pro style.

Think he looks a little careless in defence. Quite often throws his arms leaving a big gap to be exploited by hooks. Bit of a novice move.

6oldenboy i take it back! Cheers for the tip :-)

Don't like to criticise boxers, since I can't do it. Evans really doesn't look like he is trying, he isn't throwing at all if you are in a gold medal bout just throw the kitchen sink at them!

Well that was rubbish. Evans went out like haye v kbot, glad the Kazakh wasn't jobbed as he was a totally different class. Freddie s punch output was way to low, failed to engage, seemed just there to pick up his silver medal.

Fingers crossed for a better performance from Joshua later.

I'm so annoyed, he just gave it away, I haven't been impressed with him at all, he doesn't seem to have the grit required for the pro ranks, would Froch have done that? Even though Froch was losing clearly to Ward he battled back and threw the Kitchen sink at him at the end.

Even Richie Woodall was angry with him.

Sapiyev is outstanding though. It's not Evans style to go on the front foot. I can't blame him. Just checked my PP account, and had a double of Usyk and Sapiyev. Also had Evans each way so happy with the result.

Did anyone take Iglesias? 9/1 at the start of the tournament.

Interesting decision.... its not a robbery, it was close.

Thought the scoring was fair and accurate but don't understand the countback rule, can someone explain it to me?

My understanding of the countback system is that there are 5 judges scoring the bout overall. The amateur scoring system discounts the two judges with the most extreme scores, and counts the scores of three judges with the closest scores in an aggregate system and effort to eliminate high variance.

When the scores end up tied, the countback then incorporates the two judges scores that were originally dicounted so that all 5 judges scores come into play. So in the Joshua fight there, it was level taking the 3 closest scores into account, but Joshua won when the additional 2 judges were then included. This is the countback, where every individual hit registered by a judge is now used to compile a final total.

Never doubted you for a second 6oldenboy! Cheers mate, nice little profit!

Im still not entirely sold on the 10 point must system for 3 rounders I have to say. I think it works better over longer distance fights.

I dont really like the idea that a fighter could dominate one round of a fight and then go out by virtue of losing the other two rounds which could have gone either way. If the flexibility of the system was increased to reward winning a round clearly more than edging a round narrowly it might be better.

If you get knocked down in a 3 rounder under the ten point must system you are also almost finished. A flash knockdown in the first round would give a fighter a mountain to climb.

I think theres also a case to be made that 3 rounders are short enough to allow for a winner to be picked on the basis of the entire fight, rather than a round by round basis. In the current scoring format the rounds are employed in this fashion.