Olympic Betting

First topic message reminder :

With the Olympics only a week away I thought I'd give a quick preview of the competition. I've always found there is quite a lot of value in betting on amateur tournaments, with bookies maybe not as clued up on the amateurs as they should be. All odds are with Paddy Power unless stated.

At Light Flyweight, I can't see anything other than a win for Zou Shiming. The Chinese boxer is the defending Champion and three time World Champion. He's 17/10 to defend his title and after watching him last year, I can't see past him barring injury. If you are looking for a dark horse, Mark Barriga of the Philippines, is 100/1 to win. Defeated Paddy Barnes at the Worlds before running into Shiming in the next round. Barnes is 20/1 with Skybet.

At Flyweight, my pick is Andrew Selby. He's the European champion and World silver Medallist. Home advantage counts for an awful lot in the amateurs and is a great price at 7/2. My dark Horse would be Conlan of Ireland. He's 14/1 with Skybet and really is improving with each bout. Lost by a point to Selby at the Worlds and has taken some serious scalps at international level. The Irish will have a big following as well, as this the closest thing to a home Olympics they are likely to face.

At Bantam, the Cuban Alvarez is the man to beat. He's 5/2 with Skybet, but I like Luke Campbell at 6/1 with PP. Massive at the weight and again has home advantage it's worth a £5 of any man's money. Nevin of Ireland is 8/1 with Skybet and he should be there or there about come medal time.

Can't see past Lomachenko at lightweight. He's 5/6 and for a good reason. Supposedly he's only lost once in his life, the 2007 World Amateur final, and has racked up over 300 wins. Interestingly, he lost to a Brazilian in the World Championships but the result was overturned in favour of Loma. The Brazilian is 100/1 with Skybet to win Gold, and that's worth a pound considering he gave Loma his closest fight. Josh Taylor is 50/1 but I can't see him getting near the final.

At Light-Welter, the World Champion is Lopes of Brazil. I wasn't to impressed with him in Baku though and my pick is Iglesias the Cuban. He's 10/1 with Skybet, which is the bet of the tournament in my eyes. He lost to the Ukrainian silver medallist on countback at Baku, which could have gone either way. He's also defeated Lopes the previous two times they have met. Tom Stalker is 4/1, which is a bit too short in my opinion.

At Welter, Shelestyuk (Ukr) and Sapiyev (Kaz) are the two favourites. I like Fred Evans at 16/1 though. Was KO'd in Baku in the QF's but is also the Current European Champion. Classy boxer and again has home advantage. Adam Nolan of Ireland is 40/1, and I can't see him troubling the top guys.

At Middle, I like the look of Attoev the Uzbek. He's a former World Champion, lost in the first round in Baku to the eventual silver medalist Murata of Japan by KO. He was leading at the point of the stoppage, and KO's don't happen all that open in the Amateurs. He's 7-1 with PP. O'Neill of Ireland will be there or there abouts and is 16/1. Ogogo is 25/1, but struggles with consistency and recently with injuries.

At 81kg, La Cruz the Cuban is the outstanding fighter. He's 13/8 with PP to add Olympic Gold to his World Championships Gold. Hooper of Australia is a decent price at 9/1, but he's a bit of loose cannon (Azania would love him). No GB or Irish fighter at the weight either.

Can't look past Usyk at Heavy, he's 9/4. Russo is the defending champ and current WSB champ, and is 5/1 shot. Again no GB or Irish competitors.

Joshua will go far at Super Heavy. It's one of the weaker divisions and he is improving all the time. He's 15/8. If defending Champ Roberto Camarelle can rekindle the form of old he's is a good price at 9/2, whilst Felix Savon's nephew, Erislandy, is 5/1.

In the Womens I can't see past the World Champs, Katie Taylor and Savannah Marshall, at lightweight and Middleweight respectively. It really is a toss up between Cancan and Nicola Adams at Flyweight.

I've gone for a quad of Zou, Lomachenko, La Cruz and Katie Taylor. It's currently paying 13/1, but I got it at 15/1. I've also got a few quid on Iglesias at Light-welter.


Edit, some prices have changed since the time of writing.

On the "robbery" thread. Good result for him but he should have lost in all fairness.

Yeh just read through it after posting. was really gunning for the lad but can never abide by hometown decisions. Reading through the scoring has been shocking so far and is casting a bit of a cloud of the sport.

At least the Japanese lad got his RIDICULOUS loss overturned.

Lomachenko breezed into the quater finals. Bit too keen to look for a stoppage it seemed in the 3rd but he was clearly a class above the opposition.

Lomachenko looked peerless again.

Ogogo is on in 30 mins, followed straight after by Darren O'Neill. Tough bouts for both of them.

6oldenbhoy wrote:Lomachenko looked peerless again.

Ogogo is on in 30 mins, followed straight after by Darren O'Neill. Tough bouts for both of them.

Lomachnko doesn't fight with a typical amateur style does he, seems to carry some geuine whack as well, looks like he'll force an 8 count whenever he lands.

bellchees wrote:

6oldenbhoy wrote:Lomachenko looked peerless again.

Ogogo is on in 30 mins, followed straight after by Darren O'Neill. Tough bouts for both of them.

Lomachnko doesn't fight with a typical amateur style does he, seems to carry some geuine whack as well, looks like he'll force an 8 count whenever he lands.

Do you think he'll go Pro?

TopHat24/7 wrote:

bellchees wrote:

6oldenbhoy wrote:Lomachenko looked peerless again.

Ogogo is on in 30 mins, followed straight after by Darren O'Neill. Tough bouts for both of them.

Lomachnko doesn't fight with a typical amateur style does he, seems to carry some geuine whack as well, looks like he'll force an 8 count whenever he lands.

Do you think he'll go Pro?

I hope so but probably not, he cleared up at 2008 olympics so I see no purpose for him staying around for this one unless he has no intention of going Pro.

2008 Beijing Gold; 2009 Worlds Gold; 2011 Worlds Gold; 2012 London Gold (probably).

And he's only 24 and with a fantastic style that'd translate well to the pros. Such a shame if he doesn't!

TopHat24/7 wrote:2008 Beijing Gold; 2009 Worlds Gold; 2011 Worlds Gold; 2012 London Gold (probably).

And he's only 24 and with a fantastic style that'd translate well to the pros. Such a shame if he doesn't!

He's a real class act, but can't help but think if he was going Pro he would have done so already.

GO GO OGOGO!!

FanTAStic win for the GB middleweight against the #1 seed!!.

I only saw the last round and it looked like Ogogo was taking a bit of a spanking at times, hope it wasn't another poor decision.

Not that I've heard. Was a draw and they had to do a 'countback' whatever that is......

Darren O'Neill just been well beat, never looked like winnning.

Ukraine lodged an appeal over the Ogogo bout, but it has since been dismissed.

Only seen it once, but again looked a poor decision. I thought Kytrov won the last by a big margin. Ogogo did perform above expectation, but it wasn't enough for me.

6oldenbhoy wrote:Ukraine lodged an appeal over the Ogogo bout, but it has since been dismissed.

Only seen it once, but again looked a poor decision. I thought Kytrov won the last by a big margin. Ogogo did perform above expectation, but it wasn't enough for me.

Agree.

Thought Ogogo shaded the first and Kytrov the 2nd. Then the 3rd was a big round for Kytrov and Ogogo I thought was helped a touch by the ref breaking them up too soon and giving Ogogo a chance to rest which he badly needed. Can't believe that Kytrov didn't let more uppercuts go Ogogo looks very easy to hit with them as he leans in with his head down.

Hearing that they counted up the countback scores incorrectly, and Kytrov actually won 53-52. It's all speculation at the moment, nothing concrete.

Nope, all speculation, the result stands.

"At Light-Welter, the World Champion is Lopes of Brazil. I wasn't to impressed with him in Baku though and my pick is Iglesias the Cuban."

Good shout. Just beat Lopez

The Italian Light-Welter, Mangiacapre, has a little bit of Naz about him.

Soldier_Of_Fortune wrote:"At Light-Welter, the World Champion is Lopes of Brazil. I wasn't to impressed with him in Baku though and my pick is Iglesias the Cuban."

Good shout. Just beat Lopez

Yeah, he has beaten Lopes before and after the World Champs. He's come into 5/2 from 9/1. I've got a few quid on him so happy with that.

Overall all my bets are still active, bar the patriotic pound each way on Darren O'Neil. Not all good news though, Atoev at Middle looks in terrible condition. No fitness whatsoever.

Campbell and Nevin both have fights for a medal tonight. Campbell faces the Bulgarian he fought in Baku. Nevin faces a Mexican.

I have been disappointed in the amateur boxing so far at the Olympics. I dont think any of these boxers will be the next big thing and the officiating and scoring is very confusing.

Have a look at lomachenko gordy, guys incredable! Some doubt as to whether he will go pro though.

I have not seen him yet but will keep an eye out for him, thanks. I wish the scoring was done in running like in the past though. Sometimes when the scores are shown at the end of the round I am not sure what the judges have been watching!

Watching the boxing now. How did the Irish fellow not win that first round? 5 point each? Where do they find these scores!

Why dont that they have a bronze medal fight in the Olympics? Two bronze medals dont make much sense to me.

Irish fellow was very lucky in the end. He was almost kncoked out and was in big trouble. Extra points should be given if you knock your opponent down.

You get an extra point. Nevin outboxed him for all but 30seconds of the contest so I wouldn't call it luck.

Well I thought Campbell won both those two rounds

6oldenbhoy wrote:You get an extra point. Nevin outboxed him for all but 30seconds of the contest so I wouldn't call it luck.

Don't bother trying to reason with Gordy, he's just a wum. Thought nevin deserved that win, fab little boxer.

First was close thought he won the next two. Should be a Campbell win.

Yeh Nevin deserved it, though worrying how much he tired...

Phew that was too close...and far closer than it should have been! I hate to say it but i really do fear we may lose the boxing from the Olympic programme,

The IOC are very unimpressed with the amount of complaint/bad judging and poor ref's which have been on show!!

owen10ozzy wrote:Yeh Nevin deserved it, though worrying how much he tired...

Phew that was too close...and far closer than it should have been! I hate to say it but i really do fear we may lose the boxing from the Olympic programme,

The IOC are very unimpressed with the amount of complaint/bad judging and poor ref's which have been on show!!

So they should be! The scoring system and officiating is awful!

TopHat24/7 wrote:

6oldenbhoy wrote:You get an extra point. Nevin outboxed him for all but 30seconds of the contest so I wouldn't call it luck.

Don't bother trying to reason with Gordy, he's just a wum. Thought nevin deserved that win, fab little boxer.

Haha I mate. Would love to know Lennox Lewis' opinion on the fight. Might change his opinion.

Too much heritage in Olympic boxing. That said, the Americans don't many medals in it anymore so wouldn't be surprised if they tried to push it out like they've tried to marginalise the cycling.

Wouldn't Say Nevin tired, was just hurt. It was a cracking body shot. Tge Mexican will make a.cracking pro.

I like Campbell, but he hasn't looked like his usual self in these games. He should make tge final, these two aren't all that good.

alma wrote:You've got to worry slightly at the next few years in American boxing, bearing in mind how bad their amateurs are.

In fairness, their boxers look more suited to the pro's than the amateur game. Seem to load up on shots and fight in clusters. Diaz, Ramirez qnd Gausha look like great pro prospects.

Hope Belarus appeal that. Mammadov was one lucky bhoy there. He should have been disqualifed. Mackem, thank goodness you don't bet.

I think there should be an inquiry. That Italian heavyweight was surely meant to be in the wrestling team!

Agree Gordy for once. Cuba should lodge an appeal. The Italian could have been DQ'd with the amount of holding he did. But he's WSB champ, so I doubt the appeal would be upheld.

That Italian was absolute garbage, he was clinging on to him for dear life constantly.

That Luke Campbell result was a stinker, far too close. I don't even care about the Joshua result as its about dam time we got the rub of the green for once. Campbell smashed that Bulgarian and won clearly and easily.

I agree Campbell won, but thought it was closer than you think. Campbell was there to be hit at times. Single punches are always favoured as the button pressing scoring method favours potshotting over combinations.

Just out of interest, when have you not had the rub of the green before? Joshua in Baku coild be one, but Selby and Campbell both got a couple of close decsions that could have gone either way.

Britainl never get the decisions in the big events its pretty much a very well known fact.

It's not a fact though. As I said, Joshua lost a close one in Baku, I thought he won. Smith lost a shocker in the qualifier as well. But other than that, what other fights have the British been robbed? Possibly Campbell against the Turk in the European Championships, but the Turks are a law on to themselves when hosting a tournament. Everyone gets robbed there. But they have been on the end of some fortuitious results themselves as I pointed out. What other instances is there of blatant bias against the british?

6oldenbhoy wrote:It's not a fact though. As I said, Joshua lost a close one in Baku, I thought he won. Smith lost a shocker in the qualifier as well. But other than that, what other fights have the British been robbed? Possibly Campbell against the Turk in the European Championships, but the Turks are a law on to themselves when hosting a tournament. Everyone gets robbed there. But they have been on the end of some fortuitious results themselves as I pointed out. What other instances is there of blatant bias against the british?

Lennox Lewis against Evander Holyfield is a very well known one. Its known as one of the worst decisions in boxing.

Haha Gordy, you do try your best to wind people up. As we are talking amateur boxing, please remind me of where and when they fought as amateurs.

6oldenbhoy wrote:Haha Gordy, you do try your best to wind people up. As we are talking amateur boxing, please remind me of where and when they fought as amateurs.

It wasnt specified if it was amateur boxing. It wasnt even specified if it was boxing full stop. I agree with the other poster. We should not be complaining when a bit of luck goes our way because there have been plenty of times in the past where we have not in all walks of sport. I have pointed out of of the most famous examples.

Yes it was Gordy. It's in the boxing forum, on an amateur boxing thread, where I've specifically cited amateur boxing results as examples. You do make me laugh though. You and Waingro would be a great double act, although I suspect you are one and the same.

6oldenbhoy wrote:Yes it was Gordy. It's in the boxing forum, on an amateur boxing thread, where I've specifically cited amateur boxing results as examples. You do make me laugh though. You and Waingro would be a great double act, although I suspect you are one and the same.

I dont follow your Waingro point. What does that mean? How do you know the other poster was narrowing it to amateur boxing only? Why does that have any impact on why we should not be grateful for any luck that falls our athletes way? I am not biased. I try to watch every contest as evenly as possible. My first reaction was that Anthony Joshua did not beat the fellow he fought in the first round. I thought the Cuban landed more punches. But I read an interview with Lennox Lewis on the BBC and he said it was a close fight that could have gone either way. He knows a thing or two about boxing so on reflection I think the fight between Joshua and the Cuban could have been awarded to either and that many of the punches the Cuban threw were not the correct technique. I am happy Joshua got the decision but he is being overhyped massively. Before the fight the BBC were comparing him to Lennox Lewis and hyping him up. He almost lost the fight and if he was half as good as Lewis he would have knocked the Cuban fellow out instead of almost losing. There is always an element of luck in sport and we have been on the wrong end of it in the past so we should be happy when it goes our way. People on here are saying the Joshua fight was a bad decision but if you read what the experts say it was a close fight!

I'm Lennox Lewis (I post under MM), listen very carefully and repeat after me........ I am an idiot!

alma wrote:

6oldenbhoy wrote:Yes it was Gordy. It's in the boxing forum, on an amateur boxing thread, where I've specifically cited amateur boxing results as examples. You do make me laugh though. You and Waingro would be a great double act, although I suspect you are one and the same.

I don't reckon they are one and the same. Not enough LOLs for it to be Waingro. Coxy is my bet.

Don't know about it being "athlete"...

His intelligence was normally on par with his batting average, making the Gordy alias impossible for him.