HEC - A Rough Form Guide

First topic message reminder :

On Friday the HEC finally starts. For a little while we can actually concentrate on how teams from the different leagues face up to each other. When the pools were announced there were several perceived pools of death etc - so I thought i would take a look how each group's teams have performed so far this season. All I will do is on a group by group basis compare ther combined league positions and league points garnered:

Pool 1
Edinburgh - 9th with 12pts
Munster - 5th with 14pts
Racing Metro - 7th with 19pts
Saracens 4th with 20pts

Group Total - 25 places and 65pts


Pool 2
Benetton Treviso - 8th with 13pts
Leicester - 3rd with 20pts
Ospreys - 6th with 14pts
Toulouse - 2nd with 28pts

Group total - 19 places and 75pts


Pool 3
Biarritz - 8th with 19pts
Connacht - 10th with 10pts
Harlequins - 2nd with 20pts
Zebre - 12th with 1pt (1 less match than other Rabo)

Group total 32 places and 50pts


Pool 4
Castres - 6th with 20pts
Glasgow - 3rd with 18pts
Northampton - 1st with 22pts
Ulster - 1st with 21pts (1 less match than other Rabo)

Group Total 11 places and 81pts


Pool 5
Clermont - 3rd with 28pts
Exeter - 6th with 16pts
Leinster - 4th with 17pts
Scarlets - 2nd with 20pts

Group total 15 places and 81pts


Pool 6
Cardiff - 7th with 14pts
Montpelier - 4th with 23pts
Sale - 12th with 1pt
Toulon - 1st with 32pts

Group Total 24 places with 70pts




Pool 4 stands out for me as the Pool with best form so far this season, closely followed by Pool 5. On recent form Pool 3 looks the weakest. Of course it all means nought come the weekend.

ChequeredJersey wrote:Can we petition the use of a 2 day ban for every textless reply used? I can't think of many things so innocuous that make me so peed off. I don't even have anything to do with this discussion (neither did Sam really he was just making an opinion about a game which disagreed with a previous sniping remark) but the use of :Picard: as of itself as a reply is not worthy of sentient beings and thus merits dissuasion.

Yeah, perhaps a two day ban for anyone not spotting blatent sarcasm would be equally valid...

beshocked wrote:

westisbest wrote:As a Connacht man who has lived in England for a long time, and is a bit out of touch with the Connacht side, dont have sky, so dont see Pro 12/Magners, in the past, only watched a couple of out hc games last season.
Few Amlin games before.

I will be with happy with 10 points against Zebre.
Not to hopefull in the games away to Quins & Biaritz.

Would love to see a home win against either of those 2, maybe Biaritz(we've already taken care of Quins at home, ).

Quins will know how tough it will be out west.
French teams dont seem to do as well away, so a scalp at home to one of those as well as 2 wins against Zebre will be great.

Anything else will be a big bonus.

Well said. I think that's a realistic prospect.

I do think that one thing Connacht have is heart and Bz did give Aroini their first ever win (Connacht being their second) so expect them to come unstuck. It is unusual that Connacht's double header is not against Zebre as usually its the top two against each other therefore it is also the bottom two playing in their double header

I did find that a strange one but remember Leicester aren't playing the double header either against Toulouse or Ospreys.

Sale Sharks are playing Toulon in the double header.

beshocked wrote:Anyway back to topic.

Sam nice to see you again.

How do you think you'll do in the HC? Interesting opener for you.

Same question to you ChequeredJersey. Btw I know there's been a bit of disappointment in the Quins camp but I don't think you should be.

Still 2nd in the AP, only 2 points off the top after playing 3 of the top 5 from last season (2 of those away from home).

This game against Biarritz is perfect for getting back confidence in my opinion. Not an easy match but certainly easier than playing in Biarritz.

I think we'll make it out of our group. I'd hope for 18 points from Connacht and Zebre and 4 from Biarritz. After that I'll see who we face to make further wishes.

Jimpy wrote:

ChequeredJersey wrote:Can we petition the use of a 2 day ban for every textless reply used? I can't think of many things so innocuous that make me so peed off. I don't even have anything to do with this discussion (neither did Sam really he was just making an opinion about a game which disagreed with a previous sniping remark) but the use of :Picard: as of itself as a reply is not worthy of sentient beings and thus merits dissuasion.

Yeah, perhaps a two day ban for anyone not spotting blatent sarcasm would be equally valid...

I'm not going to pretend to begin to understand what you are talking about or where you are coming from. Now onto something more constructive

ChequeredJersey wrote:

beshocked wrote:Anyway back to topic.

Sam nice to see you again.

How do you think you'll do in the HC? Interesting opener for you.

Same question to you ChequeredJersey. Btw I know there's been a bit of disappointment in the Quins camp but I don't think you should be.

Still 2nd in the AP, only 2 points off the top after playing 3 of the top 5 from last season (2 of those away from home).

This game against Biarritz is perfect for getting back confidence in my opinion. Not an easy match but certainly easier than playing in Biarritz.

I think we'll make it out of our group. I'd hope for 18 points from Connacht and Zebre and 4 from Biarritz. After that I'll see who we face to make further wishes.

Looking forward to the Biarritz match, i'm able to actually get to this one which is great. For once i've actually got a pretty good feeling about a game and am expecting Quins to win and put down a marker for this comp. Biarritz have been on some horrible form so far and we should be able to make things worse for them.

I think everyone was a bit shocked and gutted after the Ex game, but in Connor we trust.

Yeah Ex was only one game, it was more the fact we offered so little than te result that gutted me. Think we may have needed that kick up the arse

Any revisions on predictions after Round 1?

Well we already have more than my minimum of points against Biarritz, so if we can get another 1 in France I'd be very satisfied

After watching this weekends games I've added Harlequins to my list of potential winners.

And there's going to be a different winner this year, because it will not be Leinster based on yesterdays evidence. Clermont will top that group and Leinster will go into the Amlin.

Yep

Admittedly only after round 1, but any supposed advantage that the Pro 12 teams have by way of preparation or resting players came to naught. Only Ulster have improved since last season; Ospreys possibly.

Munster and Leinster were decidedly poor. Connacht struggled against Zebre.
Dragons, Cardiff and Scarlets were equally bad. Glasgow - good for 30 minutes. Edinburgh were stuffed.

Ulster got the only decent result against Castres - albeit at home against a team notorious for funking away games. Ospreys duly got the bonus point at home against Treviso.

Slightly revised predictions on pools.

Saracens, Racing, Munster, Edinburgh
Toulouse, Ospreys, Leicester, Treviso
Harlequins, Biarritz (Q), Connacht, Zebre
Ulster, Saints (Q), Castres, Glasgow
Clermont, Exeter, Leinster, Scarlets
Toulon, Sale, Cardiff, Montpellier

Next week predictions

Friday has the Pool 4 top 2 playing the bottom 2

Castres v Northampton
Glasgow v Ulster

Both Saints and Ulster have max points. Might be difficult to repeat that away from home. Castres might fill their boots in front of their home crowd - I'm 50/50 on this one, given Saints shaky start this week, but they should do it. Ulster should take Glasgow.

Over the weekend, in Pool 1, top 2 play each other.
Saracens v Racing Metro
Munster v Edinburgh

Sarries should comfortably account for Racing, despite their unexpected win this week. Munster will continue Edinburgh's woes. Sets up the double header against Munster nicely.

In Pool 2, it's a David v Goliath, and two possible runners up to duke it out

Treviso v Toulouse
Leicester v Ospreys

Treviso have sprung surprises on French sides before, but I don't see it happening this time, nor them preventing four tries going in. Tigers will be itching to make amends at Welford Road, Ospreys can improve their chances to get through to the quarters. A 50/50 call on this one - Ospreys just. Maybe. Possibly.

Pool 3 sees a repeat of Harlequins ill-fated trip to the westernmost stadium in the competition. If it's raining on Saturday....

Connacht v Harlequins
Biarritz v Zebre.

Quins won't make the same mistake as last year, though difficult to tell if they'll get the TBP. Biarritz should get the full five if they manage to field a competent team.

Pool 5 will see if Leinster's shakes have steadied. The Chiefs will relish some French visitors.

Scarlets v Leinster
Exeter v Clermont.

There could be some surprise results in this one. Scarlets have trounced Leinster already in the Pro 12. The Blues lineup might have changed, but whether it has improved is questionable. They'll probably do enough, but it won't be sparkle. Exeter will be pumping to meet Clermont. And they'll win. (Don't ask me why cos I dunno.)

Pool 6.

Cardiff v Toulon
Montpellier v Sale.

Two French wins - probably.

Well so much for hoping for Exeter.


After Round two, how are predictions looking?

Pool 1

Saracens 9
Munster 6
Racing 4
Edinburgh 0

Sarries v Munster double headers should be a cracker. Spoils even at home? Racing to make mincemeat of Edinburgh and take ten points? Still looks like Saracens are in the driving seat.

Pool 2
Toulouse 8
Leicester 5
Ospreys 5
Treviso 0

Toulouse will look forward to the double header against the Welsh. Leicester to get 9/10 points against Treviso? This one to go down to the last match.

Pool 3
Quins 9
Biarritz 5
Connacht 4
Zebre 0

Quins will be relishing opportunity to take max points in the double header. And O'Shea will be hoping Connacht can put one over Biarritz. But the French side still look likely to nick one of the runners-up spots at worst.

Pool 4
Ulster 9
Northampton 6
Castres 4
Glasgow 0

Castres could well be in the mix come January, if Ulster and Saints take points off each other in the double-header. Presuming they turn up in Scotstoun, that is..
Another one that is likely to go to the last day.

Pool 5
Clermont 10
Leinster 8
Exeter 1
Scarlets 1

Clear daylight between top and bottom two. And the top two have double header.
Whoever comes out on top of that one wins the pool. On current form, with two TBPs under their belt, Clermont are looking good for a home quarter-final.
If Leinster lose both CA matches, but maybe get an LBP, could they be searching for a TBP on the final day to be one of the best runners-up?

Pool 6
Toulon 9
Sale 4
Montpellier 4
Cardiff 1

Toulon kicking their way steadily to remain top of the pool. They'll be targetting max points against Cardiff, but do they have the try-scoring ability? Sale and Montpellier to take points off each other.