HEC - A Rough Form Guide
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The v2 Forum :: Sport :: Rugby Union :: Club Rugby
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HEC - A Rough Form Guide
First topic message reminder :
On Friday the HEC finally starts. For a little while we can actually concentrate on how teams from the different leagues face up to each other. When the pools were announced there were several perceived pools of death etc - so I thought i would take a look how each group's teams have performed so far this season. All I will do is on a group by group basis compare ther combined league positions and league points garnered:
Pool 1
Edinburgh - 9th with 12pts
Munster - 5th with 14pts
Racing Metro - 7th with 19pts
Saracens 4th with 20pts
Group Total - 25 places and 65pts
Pool 2
Benetton Treviso - 8th with 13pts
Leicester - 3rd with 20pts
Ospreys - 6th with 14pts
Toulouse - 2nd with 28pts
Group total - 19 places and 75pts
Pool 3
Biarritz - 8th with 19pts
Connacht - 10th with 10pts
Harlequins - 2nd with 20pts
Zebre - 12th with 1pt (1 less match than other Rabo)
Group total 32 places and 50pts
Pool 4
Castres - 6th with 20pts
Glasgow - 3rd with 18pts
Northampton - 1st with 22pts
Ulster - 1st with 21pts (1 less match than other Rabo)
Group Total 11 places and 81pts
Pool 5
Clermont - 3rd with 28pts
Exeter - 6th with 16pts
Leinster - 4th with 17pts
Scarlets - 2nd with 20pts
Group total 15 places and 81pts
Pool 6
Cardiff - 7th with 14pts
Montpelier - 4th with 23pts
Sale - 12th with 1pt
Toulon - 1st with 32pts
Group Total 24 places with 70pts
Pool 4 stands out for me as the Pool with best form so far this season, closely followed by Pool 5. On recent form Pool 3 looks the weakest. Of course it all means nought come the weekend.
On Friday the HEC finally starts. For a little while we can actually concentrate on how teams from the different leagues face up to each other. When the pools were announced there were several perceived pools of death etc - so I thought i would take a look how each group's teams have performed so far this season. All I will do is on a group by group basis compare ther combined league positions and league points garnered:
Pool 1
Edinburgh - 9th with 12pts
Munster - 5th with 14pts
Racing Metro - 7th with 19pts
Saracens 4th with 20pts
Group Total - 25 places and 65pts
Pool 2
Benetton Treviso - 8th with 13pts
Leicester - 3rd with 20pts
Ospreys - 6th with 14pts
Toulouse - 2nd with 28pts
Group total - 19 places and 75pts
Pool 3
Biarritz - 8th with 19pts
Connacht - 10th with 10pts
Harlequins - 2nd with 20pts
Zebre - 12th with 1pt (1 less match than other Rabo)
Group total 32 places and 50pts
Pool 4
Castres - 6th with 20pts
Glasgow - 3rd with 18pts
Northampton - 1st with 22pts
Ulster - 1st with 21pts (1 less match than other Rabo)
Group Total 11 places and 81pts
Pool 5
Clermont - 3rd with 28pts
Exeter - 6th with 16pts
Leinster - 4th with 17pts
Scarlets - 2nd with 20pts
Group total 15 places and 81pts
Pool 6
Cardiff - 7th with 14pts
Montpelier - 4th with 23pts
Sale - 12th with 1pt
Toulon - 1st with 32pts
Group Total 24 places with 70pts
Pool 4 stands out for me as the Pool with best form so far this season, closely followed by Pool 5. On recent form Pool 3 looks the weakest. Of course it all means nought come the weekend.
LondonTiger- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
I'll tip Connacht to go unbeaten at home but lose all 3 on the road. They are much better than 12 months ago.
Their defence is as aggressive as I've seen from any team. They don't drop their heads when losing and their team spirit, passion and pride in the jersey is probably unparalleled in club rugby anywhere right now.
They also have some very good players and some real strike threat out wide with the likes of Vainakolo, O'hallaran, Griffin etc. Parks will land drop goals and kick goals that they'd have missed in the past. The backrow is strong and they have some real hard men in the pack.
I think their set piece might be the achilles heel though.
Their defence is as aggressive as I've seen from any team. They don't drop their heads when losing and their team spirit, passion and pride in the jersey is probably unparalleled in club rugby anywhere right now.
They also have some very good players and some real strike threat out wide with the likes of Vainakolo, O'hallaran, Griffin etc. Parks will land drop goals and kick goals that they'd have missed in the past. The backrow is strong and they have some real hard men in the pack.
I think their set piece might be the achilles heel though.
rodders- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Rodders you think Connacht will lose to Zebre away?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Crucially, to finish on 24 points, 'Quins must beat B'ritz home and away.
Thats a bold prediction for a team that although 2nd in the AP, has demonstrably stuttered over the last few weeks.
Thats a bold prediction for a team that although 2nd in the AP, has demonstrably stuttered over the last few weeks.
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
No they don't Jimpy.
5 wins x 4 = 20 points. 5/6 - could include an away loss to Biarritz.
4 bonus points - I see it as a try bonus vs Connacht at home, two vs Zebre and a losing bonus vs Biarritz away.
=24
You say they are stuttering but they are 2nd in the league. They are in the easiest group in the HC by some distance.
5 wins x 4 = 20 points. 5/6 - could include an away loss to Biarritz.
4 bonus points - I see it as a try bonus vs Connacht at home, two vs Zebre and a losing bonus vs Biarritz away.
=24
You say they are stuttering but they are 2nd in the league. They are in the easiest group in the HC by some distance.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:I'll tip Connacht to go unbeaten at home but lose all 3 on the road. They are much better than 12 months ago.
Their defence is as aggressive as I've seen from any team. They don't drop their heads when losing and their team spirit, passion and pride in the jersey is probably unparalleled in club rugby anywhere right now.
They also have some very good players and some real strike threat out wide with the likes of Vainakolo, O'hallaran, Griffin etc. Parks will land drop goals and kick goals that they'd have missed in the past. The backrow is strong and they have some real hard men in the pack.
I think their set piece might be the achilles heel though.
Nathan White has really shored up their scrum, he's been a great signing already. If they're capable of giving Leinster an almighty hiding at home then I don't see why they're not capable of doing the same to lesser teams.
Mickado- Posts : 7282
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Smirnoffpriest I said I think Connacht will give Biarritz problems and could actually get the win at home.
Expect Quins to do the double over Connacht as they have in the Amlin.
I can't see anyone beating Biarritz in Biarritz or anyone beating Quins at the Stoop.
My prediction is probably this
Quins 5 wins 3 try bonus points and 1 losing bonus points - 24
Biarritz 4 wins 3 try bonus points and 2 losing bonus points -21
Connacht 3 wins 2 try bonus points and 1 losing bonus point - 16
Zebre -0 wins, 0 bonus points - 0
I know, I was responding to a post further up the thread that said - 'Pool 3, that's an easy 20 points for Quins/Biarritz'
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Rodders you think Connacht will lose to Zebre away?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
Why be so aggressive?
There's a world of difference between what Rodders said - ie 'Connacht are a tough team to beat at home, and are much better than they were last year (when they beat the Quins)'
to what you said 'that they are the best side in Europe'.
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Smirnoffpriest wrote:beshocked wrote:Rodders you think Connacht will lose to Zebre away?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
Why be so aggressive?
There's a world of difference between what Rodders said - ie 'Connacht are a tough team to beat at home, and are much better than they were last year (when they beat the Quins)'
to what you said 'that they are the best side in Europe'.
What's wrong with suggesting to Rodders if he has so much faith in Connacht he should put some money on them? He'll get very good odds.
50/1 on pool 3 winners. 1000/1 to win the tournament.
I don't just like it when sides are overhyped. So and so are a good side despite wins/loss showing otherwise.
Not every single side in the world of rugby is good.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Rodders you think Connacht will lose to Zebre away?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
Hmm because I don't believe they will either top their pool or win the competition perhaps....
I have tipped them to win their home games, and yes probably they will beat Zebre away too, which in my humble view is a slightly more modest,and achievable, goal than winning the actual competition.
rodders- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:beshocked wrote:Rodders you think Connacht will lose to Zebre away?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
Hmm because I don't believe they will either top their pool or win the competition perhaps....
I have tipped them to win their home games, and yes probably they will beat Zebre away too, which in my humble view is a slightly more modest,and achievable, goal than winning the actual competition.
It seems that was the obvious answer Rodders? but I guess it wasn't that obvious for Beshocked...
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Smirnoffpriest wrote:rodders wrote:beshocked wrote:Rodders you think Connacht will lose to Zebre away?
Why not just tip them to top the pool and possibly win the HC if you think they are such a great side?
Hmm because I don't believe they will either top their pool or win the competition perhaps....
I have tipped them to win their home games, and yes probably they will beat Zebre away too, which in my humble view is a slightly more modest,and achievable, goal than winning the actual competition.
It seems that was the obvious answer Rodders? but I guess it wasn't that obvious for Beshocked...
Don't worry about Timmy, he gets very animated...
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Rodders how about we make a bet that Connacht won't win all their home games?
If you win I have to write an article about how wrong I was about Connacht and how great they are.
If I win you have to write an article saying you were wrong and acknowledging that Connacht are not a good team.
Let's be honest they should beat Zebre twice. Beating both Biarritz and Quins would be a good feat I don't think they are capable of. If I am wrong I will happily acknowledge it.
I don't see anyone saying that Sale are going to have a good competition.
Jumpy
Yet again no relevance to rugby in your posts. If you have nothing to say about rugby then what's the point of posting on a rugby forum?
If you win I have to write an article about how wrong I was about Connacht and how great they are.
If I win you have to write an article saying you were wrong and acknowledging that Connacht are not a good team.
Let's be honest they should beat Zebre twice. Beating both Biarritz and Quins would be a good feat I don't think they are capable of. If I am wrong I will happily acknowledge it.
I don't see anyone saying that Sale are going to have a good competition.
Jumpy
Yet again no relevance to rugby in your posts. If you have nothing to say about rugby then what's the point of posting on a rugby forum?
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Rodders how about we make a bet that Connacht won't win all their home games?
If you win I have to write an article about how wrong I was about Connacht and how great they are.
If I win you have to write an article saying you were wrong and acknowledging that Connacht are not a good team.
Let's be honest they should beat Zebre twice. Beating both Biarritz and Quins would be a good feat I don't think they are capable of. If I am wrong I will happily acknowledge it.
I don't see anyone saying that Sale are going to have a good competition.
Jumpy
Yet again no relevance to rugby in your posts. If you have nothing to say about rugby then what's the point of posting on a rugby forum?
Hang on - so you say Connacht will beat Zebre twice and Biarritz at home, whereas Rodders thinks that Connacht could win all of their home games - you must be very confident that the Quins will definately win in the West of Ireland, as this seems to be the only difference between your 2 predictions (and an away win in Italy).
Also why is Connachts ability to win 3 games at home the soley measure of if they are a good team (rather than their performance over a whole season, or the scalps they've taken already - such as Leinster and Quins...
It's nice to see you retracted your earlier claim that Zebre/Connacht were an easy 20 points, and instead said that Connacht can beat Biarritz...
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Quote me when did I say Zebre/Connacht are an easy 20 points?
I think it's pretty obvious Biarritz and Quins will both get into the quarter finals - one as pool winner, the other as best runners up.
That's different though.
I don't think Connacht will beat Quins. They took the scalp last season. Quins won't be so complacent this time.
Biarritz can be wobbly against the weaker sides like their loss to Aironi and Treviso show. Treviso are a bigger threat than Connacht as this season and the last HC show so of course Biarritz are vulnerable.
Beating both Quins and Biarritz would show they are a side not to be trifled with.
Beating Biarritz at home has been shown to not be a particularly impressive feat. Admittedly taking the scalp of Quins again would be of note but I don't think they will.
One good win surrounded by numerous losses doesn't mean a good team.
Do you think Rosol is a tennis player that should be viewed as a decent player because he beat Nadal at Wimbledon? Occasionally the big teams/players can be beaten by the smaller sides.
Unless they do it on a consistent basis it doesn't really hold water.
I think it's pretty obvious Biarritz and Quins will both get into the quarter finals - one as pool winner, the other as best runners up.
That's different though.
I don't think Connacht will beat Quins. They took the scalp last season. Quins won't be so complacent this time.
Biarritz can be wobbly against the weaker sides like their loss to Aironi and Treviso show. Treviso are a bigger threat than Connacht as this season and the last HC show so of course Biarritz are vulnerable.
Beating both Quins and Biarritz would show they are a side not to be trifled with.
Beating Biarritz at home has been shown to not be a particularly impressive feat. Admittedly taking the scalp of Quins again would be of note but I don't think they will.
One good win surrounded by numerous losses doesn't mean a good team.
Do you think Rosol is a tennis player that should be viewed as a decent player because he beat Nadal at Wimbledon? Occasionally the big teams/players can be beaten by the smaller sides.
Unless they do it on a consistent basis it doesn't really hold water.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Biarritz are an ok team, Quins are becoming a very good team. Connacht are a limited but dangerous team and Zebre are a poor team.
I think Quins will be out to exercise some demons at the Sportsground, likely Connacht will take inspiration from their famous win but that result will leave Quins desperate to write the wrongs of that game. They're going to be very motivated and focused on beating Connacht in Galway.
Biarritz is the scalp I think they could get. Quins is possible but will be even harder than last year.
Also- chill out man! Relax! The Heineken Cup is back. All is right with the world.
I think Quins will be out to exercise some demons at the Sportsground, likely Connacht will take inspiration from their famous win but that result will leave Quins desperate to write the wrongs of that game. They're going to be very motivated and focused on beating Connacht in Galway.
Biarritz is the scalp I think they could get. Quins is possible but will be even harder than last year.
Also- chill out man! Relax! The Heineken Cup is back. All is right with the world.
Notch- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Rodders how about we make a bet that Connacht won't win all their home games?
If you win I have to write an article about how wrong I was about Connacht and how great they are.
If I win you have to write an article saying you were wrong and acknowledging that Connacht are not a good team.
Let's be honest they should beat Zebre twice. Beating both Biarritz and Quins would be a good feat I don't think they are capable of. If I am wrong I will happily acknowledge it.
I don't see anyone saying that Sale are going to have a good competition.
Jumpy
Yet again no relevance to rugby in your posts. If you have nothing to say about rugby then what's the point of posting on a rugby forum?
Because you love it Timmy, i'm the only person in this world that makes you feel needed.
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Quote me when did I say Zebre/Connacht are an easy 20 points?
I think it's pretty obvious Biarritz and Quins will both get into the quarter finals - one as pool winner, the other as best runners up.
That's different though.
I don't think Connacht will beat Quins. They took the scalp last season. Quins won't be so complacent this time.
Biarritz can be wobbly against the weaker sides like their loss to Aironi and Treviso show. Treviso are a bigger threat than Connacht as this season and the last HC show so of course Biarritz are vulnerable.
Beating both Quins and Biarritz would show they are a side not to be trifled with.
Beating Biarritz at home has been shown to not be a particularly impressive feat. Admittedly taking the scalp of Quins again would be of note but I don't think they will.
One good win surrounded by numerous losses doesn't mean a good team.
Do you think Rosol is a tennis player that should be viewed as a decent player because he beat Nadal at Wimbledon? Occasionally the big teams/players can be beaten by the smaller sides.
Unless they do it on a consistent basis it doesn't really hold water.
Apologies it was PotHale and not you who made the '20 point gift' comment - I'd didn't mean to get you 2 mixed up.
But you do confuse me - you say beating Biarritz and Quins in the same season would prove Connacht are a side not to be trifled with, but beating Biarritz and Quins in successive seasons is not a particularly impressive feat.
You also don't seem to think that Connacht have improved at all since their 1st ever season in the HEC, and the win they got last season came solely from the opposition being complacent.
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:
What's wrong with suggesting to Rodders if he has so much faith in Connacht he should put some money on them? He'll get very good odds.
50/1 on pool 3 winners. 1000/1 to win the tournament.
I don't just like it when sides are overhyped. So and so are a good side despite wins/loss showing otherwise.
Not every single side in the world of rugby is good.
Connacht are better than last season. Last season they beat Quins at home, gave them a scare away and was a missed tackle from beating Gloucester away. Ovr the summer Connacht have strengthened the squad by bringing in Dan Parks, Nathan White, Willia Faloon, Danie Poolman as well as a few others. They've now got a solid scrum and a kicker who has a higher percentage.
They have young players like Griffin, McSharry, Denis Buckley and Tiernan O'Halloran who are not far off the Irish squad. Kieran Marmion (Ireland U20 scrumhalf) is their new no 1 scrumhalf and is better than what they had last season. The surprise package of the season in Ireland so far (for me) has been fullback/center Robbie Henshaw. Hes just out of school.
The negative is that their pack is all a year older and they're weak at hooker.
So to beat Connacht you have to front upto their attack and deny their good backs any ball.
profitius- Posts : 4726
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Connacht may be a better team than last year, when they struggled against both gloucester and Toulouse - but really fought in both matches against Quins.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
LondonTiger- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
If Connacht are so good, why do they lose so often?
yappysnap- Posts : 11993
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Well I suppose it couldn't be because their in a competitive league could it as their not in the AV...
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
LondonTiger wrote:Connacht may be a better team than last year, when they struggled against both gloucester and Toulouse - but really fought in both matches against Quins.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
They've had a disappointing start for sure but they absolutely tanked Leinster and but for their scrum being demolished I think they'd have pushed Ulster much closer at Ravenhill on Friday.
I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
rodders- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Smirnoffpriest looking at the league table Connacht are 10th.
I expect Quins were complacent. They had just beaten Toulouse away, they thought oh well we can beat the little guys in Ireland can't we?
It depends how good you think Connacht are.
Different sides have different expectations. For Connacht that might be a huge feat, for a better side would it be?
Beating Quins seems to be akin to a historical moment in Connacht's history whilst other sides just see a win over Quins as just another win.
Giving an opposition a scare is not the same as winning. It makes all the difference. A tight loss is still a loss. A tight win is still a win.
What do you want me to say?
I expect Quins were complacent. They had just beaten Toulouse away, they thought oh well we can beat the little guys in Ireland can't we?
It depends how good you think Connacht are.
Different sides have different expectations. For Connacht that might be a huge feat, for a better side would it be?
Beating Quins seems to be akin to a historical moment in Connacht's history whilst other sides just see a win over Quins as just another win.
Giving an opposition a scare is not the same as winning. It makes all the difference. A tight loss is still a loss. A tight win is still a win.
What do you want me to say?
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:LondonTiger wrote:Connacht may be a better team than last year, when they struggled against both gloucester and Toulouse - but really fought in both matches against Quins.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
They've had a disappointing start for sure but they absolutely tanked Leinster and but for their scrum being demolished I think they'd have pushed Ulster much closer at Ravenhill on Friday.
I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
They won 1 out of 5 games in their first HC. That's 2 losses at home.
They are 10th in the Pro12. 2 wins, 4 losses. Blues and Scarlets beat them at home. Hardly a fortress.
If Scarlets and Blues can win then Quins and Biarritz are more than capable.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Beshocked,
Nobody is saying that Quins and Biarritz cant win.
I think anyone who ever says a team CANT win in a Heineken Cup match is dreaming.
Upsets happen all the time in sport.
Personally I dont think Connacht will beat both Quins and Biarritz. But they certainly can.
On another point the Irish sides in the HEC are a different animal to what happens in the Pro 12. I am a big believer than the HEC means considerably more than the Pro 12.
Nobody is saying that Quins and Biarritz cant win.
I think anyone who ever says a team CANT win in a Heineken Cup match is dreaming.
Upsets happen all the time in sport.
Personally I dont think Connacht will beat both Quins and Biarritz. But they certainly can.
On another point the Irish sides in the HEC are a different animal to what happens in the Pro 12. I am a big believer than the HEC means considerably more than the Pro 12.
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Well I suppose beating Quins was a historical moment as (I believe) it was their 1st ever HEC win, but seeing as it was their 1st HEC season then it's understanable.
Though I don't think they thought a huge amount about beating Leinster - other than another good win. So does that make Leinster a poor side or Connacht a good side (or the old fall back that the Rabo is a mikey mouse league, and Rabo sides only win in the HEC because of that, or because AV/French sides are complacent).
I suppose it does centre around the fact of how good you think teams are - I respect Connacht and think they can give any team trouble at home and think it's arrogant to assume you can walk over them.
Though you could assume that you only lose against clubs because your team was complacent, and that you'll easily beat them again coz your team won't be comlacenet again. - though some would consider that arrogant...
Though I don't think they thought a huge amount about beating Leinster - other than another good win. So does that make Leinster a poor side or Connacht a good side (or the old fall back that the Rabo is a mikey mouse league, and Rabo sides only win in the HEC because of that, or because AV/French sides are complacent).
I suppose it does centre around the fact of how good you think teams are - I respect Connacht and think they can give any team trouble at home and think it's arrogant to assume you can walk over them.
Though you could assume that you only lose against clubs because your team was complacent, and that you'll easily beat them again coz your team won't be comlacenet again. - though some would consider that arrogant...
Smirnoffpriest- Posts : 5321
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Smirnoffpriest some losses are down to complacency when you haven't played the opposition.
E.g. IMO when Saracens lost to Exeter in Exeter's first match in the AP it was complacency. Saracens were surprised by Exeter and didn't react well enough. Exeter were impressive that day and well deserved the win but I wouldn't say Saracens took it seriously enough which was naive.
Contrast to the loss not long ago - that wasn't complacency.
If you respect Connacht that's fine. I don't need to. I don't think they have done anything of note to do so.
I don't expect to walk over anyone. I expect my team to win most matches though.
E.g. IMO when Saracens lost to Exeter in Exeter's first match in the AP it was complacency. Saracens were surprised by Exeter and didn't react well enough. Exeter were impressive that day and well deserved the win but I wouldn't say Saracens took it seriously enough which was naive.
Contrast to the loss not long ago - that wasn't complacency.
If you respect Connacht that's fine. I don't need to. I don't think they have done anything of note to do so.
I don't expect to walk over anyone. I expect my team to win most matches though.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
Join date : 2011-03-08
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
If they win their home games and one away game they are right there in contention to win the group - depending on bonus points. Now I think connacht are a decent hard working team - I do not however consider them a team that will make a serious challenge for 1/4 final places. They will win more matches than last season for sure, they will be hard to beat and will not gift points to anyone, but winning all 3 home games would be a stunning achievement.
LondonTiger- Moderator
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Join date : 2011-02-10
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
LondonTiger wrote:rodders wrote:I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
If they win their home games and one away game they are right there in contention to win the group - depending on bonus points. Now I think connacht are a decent hard working team - I do not however consider them a team that will make a serious challenge for 1/4 final places. They will win more matches than last season for sure, they will be hard to beat and will not gift points to anyone, but winning all 3 home games would be a stunning achievement.
Zebre they would expect to beat. Harlequins who got walloped at the weekend, they've beaten before and Barritz who are known poor travellers. A huge acievement yes but hardly the stuff of miracles to win all three.
rodders- Moderator
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Age : 43
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
I'll give you Zebre (home and away) and yes they may sneak one other win, but if they win all 3 home matches I would be shocked. If they then go on to secure enough BPs to make the 1/4 finals, well I guess I will have to eat some exceedingly humble pie.
Best thing is we can see, come the weekend, who will look like challenging across Europe. Who has been flattered by their league form, who hais raised their game.
Best thing is we can see, come the weekend, who will look like challenging across Europe. Who has been flattered by their league form, who hais raised their game.
LondonTiger- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:LondonTiger wrote:Connacht may be a better team than last year, when they struggled against both gloucester and Toulouse - but really fought in both matches against Quins.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
They've had a disappointing start for sure but they absolutely tanked Leinster and but for their scrum being demolished I think they'd have pushed Ulster much closer at Ravenhill on Friday.
I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
Yeah, apart from their scrum being demolished. Biarritz and Quins are good scrummaging teams too!
Notch- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Details Notch, Details!
rodders- Moderator
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Age : 43
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:LondonTiger wrote:rodders wrote:I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
If they win their home games and one away game they are right there in contention to win the group - depending on bonus points. Now I think connacht are a decent hard working team - I do not however consider them a team that will make a serious challenge for 1/4 final places. They will win more matches than last season for sure, they will be hard to beat and will not gift points to anyone, but winning all 3 home games would be a stunning achievement.
Zebre they would expect to beat. Harlequins who got walloped at the weekend, they've beaten before and Barritz who are known poor travellers. A huge acievement yes but hardly the stuff of miracles to win all three.
It's a massive task, but not impossible. I agree with rodders.
Do I think that will actually happen? No. I think they'll get 2 maybe 3 wins this year- a good solid display. I don't think that one of those wins will come against Quins and Biarritz should have enough up front if they keep focused. I acknowledge there's a possibility they'll do better than that...
Notch- Moderator
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Location : Belfast
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
rodders wrote:LondonTiger wrote:Connacht may be a better team than last year, when they struggled against both gloucester and Toulouse - but really fought in both matches against Quins.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
They've had a disappointing start for sure but they absolutely tanked Leinster and but for their scrum being demolished I think they'd have pushed Ulster much closer at Ravenhill on Friday.
I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
Maybe because of this...
Their defence is as aggressive as I've seen from any team. They don't drop their heads when losing and their team spirit, passion and pride in the jersey is probably unparalleled in club rugby anywhere right now.
They also have some very good players and some real strike threat out wide with the likes of Vainakolo, O'hallaran, Griffin etc. Parks will land drop goals and kick goals that they'd have missed in the past. The backrow is strong and they have some real hard men in the pack.
I think their set piece might be the achilles heel though.
yappysnap- Posts : 11993
Join date : 2011-06-01
Age : 36
Location : Christchurch, NZ
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
I expect Quins were complacent. They had just beaten Toulouse away, they thought oh well we can beat the little guys in Ireland can't we?
The conditions were appalling and as usual Quins struggled to adapt, nothing new about that. Connacht are a tough well drilled team, they get a bit of luck like catching a running based team on a wet and windy night on the west coast of Ireland and they'll not let it slip away.
formerly known as Sam- Posts : 21339
Join date : 2011-07-13
Age : 38
Location : Leicestershire
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
yappysnap wrote:rodders wrote:LondonTiger wrote:Connacht may be a better team than last year, when they struggled against both gloucester and Toulouse - but really fought in both matches against Quins.
thing is you look at their results this season (ok a shock win against Leinster aside) and they have really struggled home and away.
They've had a disappointing start for sure but they absolutely tanked Leinster and but for their scrum being demolished I think they'd have pushed Ulster much closer at Ravenhill on Friday.
I still don't get how people translate that they could win their home games to saying they are so good?
Maybe because of this...
Their defence is as aggressive as I've seen from any team. They don't drop their heads when losing and their team spirit, passion and pride in the jersey is probably unparalleled in club rugby anywhere right now.
They also have some very good players and some real strike threat out wide with the likes of Vainakolo, O'hallaran, Griffin etc. Parks will land drop goals and kick goals that they'd have missed in the past. The backrow is strong and they have some real hard men in the pack.
I think their set piece might be the achilles heel though.
Yes and I stand by every word. Excellent defence, good backrow, good backs, not the best set piece, hard to beat at home. I believe they will win games, but are not a QF team imo.
rodders- Moderator
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Age : 43
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
I will actually cry if we lose to Connacht, home or away, unless the conditions are literally as bad as last time. Even then I'd be very very disappointed. We know what they will offer, and they are a proud team and I hope they scalp Biarritz. But losing to Connacht would be unacceptable, period
ChequeredJersey- Posts : 18707
Join date : 2011-12-23
Age : 35
Location : London, UK
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
ChequeredJersey wrote:I will actually cry if we lose to Connacht, home or away, unless the conditions are literally as bad as last time. Even then I'd be very very disappointed. We know what they will offer, and they are a proud team and I hope they scalp Biarritz. But losing to Connacht would be unacceptable, period
+1
Would love them to win all of their other games though
yappysnap- Posts : 11993
Join date : 2011-06-01
Age : 36
Location : Christchurch, NZ
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Connacht just don't have the pack. They have a lot of honest journeymen in that pack. Good backrow, but lot of very average tight five forwards.
They're capable of springing upsets, but not quarter finals.
They're capable of springing upsets, but not quarter finals.
Notch- Moderator
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Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Smirnoffpriest some losses are down to complacency when you haven't played the opposition.
E.g. IMO when Saracens lost to Exeter in Exeter's first match in the AP it was complacency. Saracens were surprised by Exeter and didn't react well enough. Exeter were impressive that day and well deserved the win but I wouldn't say Saracens took it seriously enough which was naive.
Contrast to the loss not long ago - that wasn't complacency.
If you respect Connacht that's fine. I don't need to. I don't think they have done anything of note to do so.
I don't expect to walk over anyone. I expect my team to win most matches though.
Exter's first Premiership match was against Gloucester, at Sandy Park. Exeter won.
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
Join date : 2012-08-02
Location : Not in a hot sandy place anymore
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Sorry I should have changed that to first match that Exeter played vs Saracens. Trust you to pick up on that.
You are quite correct though.
You are quite correct though.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
Join date : 2011-03-08
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
beshocked wrote:Sorry I should have changed that to first match that Exeter played vs Saracens. Trust you to pick up on that.
You are quite correct though.
Why wouldn't I? You were clearly wrong. I pick up on all sorts of things, like Saracens' constant foul play at the breakdown against LW.
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
Join date : 2012-08-02
Location : Not in a hot sandy place anymore
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Jimpy I said I am wrong on the point about Exeter. No need to labour the point.
Why can you never seem to stick to the topic? Your obsession with me and Saracens is tiresome.
This sums you up pretty nicely:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)
Why can you never seem to stick to the topic? Your obsession with me and Saracens is tiresome.
This sums you up pretty nicely:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troll_(Internet)
beshocked- Posts : 14849
Join date : 2011-03-08
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
The mileage to be had out of you is quite phenomenal.
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
Join date : 2012-08-02
Location : Not in a hot sandy place anymore
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
I pick up on all sorts of things, like Saracens' constant foul play at the breakdown against LW.
I'd actually say that LW were lucky to suffer only 1 YC as the killed the ball repeatedly in their own half, hence why Sarries had so many kickable penalties. That is off the topic though.
formerly known as Sam- Posts : 21339
Join date : 2011-07-13
Age : 38
Location : Leicestershire
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
formerly known as Sam wrote:I pick up on all sorts of things, like Saracens' constant foul play at the breakdown against LW.
I'd actually say that LW were lucky to suffer only 1 YC as the killed the ball repeatedly in their own half, hence why Sarries had so many kickable penalties. That is off the topic though.
Jimpy- Posts : 2823
Join date : 2012-08-02
Location : Not in a hot sandy place anymore
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Can we petition the use of a 2 day ban for every textless reply used? I can't think of many things so innocuous that make me so peed off. I don't even have anything to do with this discussion (neither did Sam really he was just making an opinion about a game which disagreed with a previous sniping remark) but the use of :Picard: as of itself as a reply is not worthy of sentient beings and thus merits dissuasion.
ChequeredJersey- Posts : 18707
Join date : 2011-12-23
Age : 35
Location : London, UK
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
As a Connacht man who has lived in England for a long time, and is a bit out of touch with the Connacht side, dont have sky, so dont see Pro 12/Magners, in the past, only watched a couple of out hc games last season.
Few Amlin games before.
I will be with happy with 10 points against Zebre.
Not to hopefull in the games away to Quins & Biaritz.
Would love to see a home win against either of those 2, maybe Biaritz(we've already taken care of Quins at home, ).
Quins will know how tough it will be out west.
French teams dont seem to do as well away, so a scalp at home to one of those as well as 2 wins against Zebre will be great.
Anything else will be a big bonus.
Few Amlin games before.
I will be with happy with 10 points against Zebre.
Not to hopefull in the games away to Quins & Biaritz.
Would love to see a home win against either of those 2, maybe Biaritz(we've already taken care of Quins at home, ).
Quins will know how tough it will be out west.
French teams dont seem to do as well away, so a scalp at home to one of those as well as 2 wins against Zebre will be great.
Anything else will be a big bonus.
westisbest- Posts : 7932
Join date : 2011-05-31
Location : Bournemouth
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
Anyway back to topic.
Sam nice to see you again.
How do you think you'll do in the HC? Interesting opener for you.
Same question to you ChequeredJersey. Btw I know there's been a bit of disappointment in the Quins camp but I don't think you should be.
Still 2nd in the AP, only 2 points off the top after playing 3 of the top 5 from last season (2 of those away from home).
This game against Biarritz is perfect for getting back confidence in my opinion. Not an easy match but certainly easier than playing in Biarritz.
Sam nice to see you again.
How do you think you'll do in the HC? Interesting opener for you.
Same question to you ChequeredJersey. Btw I know there's been a bit of disappointment in the Quins camp but I don't think you should be.
Still 2nd in the AP, only 2 points off the top after playing 3 of the top 5 from last season (2 of those away from home).
This game against Biarritz is perfect for getting back confidence in my opinion. Not an easy match but certainly easier than playing in Biarritz.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
Join date : 2011-03-08
Re: HEC - A Rough Form Guide
westisbest wrote:As a Connacht man who has lived in England for a long time, and is a bit out of touch with the Connacht side, dont have sky, so dont see Pro 12/Magners, in the past, only watched a couple of out hc games last season.
Few Amlin games before.
I will be with happy with 10 points against Zebre.
Not to hopefull in the games away to Quins & Biaritz.
Would love to see a home win against either of those 2, maybe Biaritz(we've already taken care of Quins at home, ).
Quins will know how tough it will be out west.
French teams dont seem to do as well away, so a scalp at home to one of those as well as 2 wins against Zebre will be great.
Anything else will be a big bonus.
Well said. I think that's a realistic prospect.
beshocked- Posts : 14849
Join date : 2011-03-08
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