World Rugby Rankings

First topic message reminder :

Current World Rankings

IRB Rankings at
http://www.worldrugby.org/rankings#mru

Fixtures according to http://www.espn.co.uk/rugby/fixtures/_/league/180659/

Best odds for each result category from a range of bookies as at http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations

Code:



Saturday, March 18

Scotland v Italy 12:30 PM -- BT Murrayfield, Edinburgh

sco (on 82.18 points) at home -vs- ita (on 71.17 points)

If sco win by 1-15 points 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If sco win by more than 15 0.000 82.18 71.17 No
If result is a draw 1.000 81.18 72.17 No
If ita win by 1-15 points 2.000 80.18 73.17 No
If ita win by more than 15 3.000 79.18 74.17 No

Scotland (1/16)
Draw (66/1)
Italy (15/1)

France v Wales 2:45 PM -- Stade de France, Saint-Denis

fra (on 81.21 points) at home -vs- wal (on 82.16 points)

If fra win by 1-15 points 0.795 82.00 81.36 Yes
If fra win by more than 15 1.193 82.40 80.97 Yes
If result is a draw 0.205 81.00 82.36 No
If wal win by 1-15 points 1.205 80.00 83.36 No
If wal win by more than 15 1.807 79.40 83.97 No

France (8/13)
14:45TV
 

France (8/13)
Draw (25/1)
Wales (13/8)

Ireland v England 5:00 PM -- Aviva Stadium, Dublin

ire (on 83.18 points) at home -vs- eng (on 91.02 points)

If ire win by 1-15 points 1.484 84.66 89.54 No
If ire win by more than 15 2.226 85.41 88.79 No
If result is a draw 0.484 83.66 90.54 No
If eng win by 1-15 points 0.516 82.66 91.54 No
If eng win by more than 15 0.774 82.41 91.79 No

Ireland (6/4)
Draw (25/1)
England (9/13)



Original thread:
https://www.606v2.com/t12724p950-irb-world-rankings-part-1


Sources:
Fixtures : http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/rugby_union/fixtures/4776295.stm
IRB Rankings : http://www.espn.co.uk/scrum/rugby/match/fixtures/international.html
Rankings explanation : http://www.irb.com/rankings/explain/index.html
Rankings archive : http://www.irb.com/rankings/archive/index.html
Fixtures : http://www.espnscrum.com/scrum/rugby/current/match/scores/recent.html

Online calculator (Courtesy of Robbo277 (thanks)) : http://www.lassen.co.nz/pagmisc.php#hrh

We're all happy down south, my friend!  

Linebreaker wrote:We're all happy down south, my friend!  

Bloody Kiwis (both codes).
Bloody Oz Trialians (all sports).

New OP.

And that's it until Feb 1 2014.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:We're all happy down south, my friend!  

Bloody Kiwis (both codes).
Bloody Oz Trialians (all sports).

New OP.

And that's it until Feb 1 2014.

and the Cavemen of the South close their doors for the rest of the winter season... and prepare for the spring season ahead.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:We're all happy down south, my friend!  

Bloody Kiwis (both codes).
Bloody Oz Trialians (all sports).

New OP.

And that's it until Feb 1 2014.

it must be fortunate then that us Saffers only olay rugby and cricket, eh?

Oh. I forgot the Safferagettes.

Yeah. Them too, Biltong. Since you did go to the effort of chaining your petticoat to the King's horse.

Bloody Saffers coming up here and being - well , um, err - South African. 

Team of the year imo.

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:Oh. I forgot the Safferagettes.

Yeah. Them too, Biltong. Since you did go to the effort of chaining your petticoat to the King's horse.

Bloody Saffers coming up here and being - well , um, err - South African. 

Team of the year imo.

Curious, why?

in 2013:
SA Played 9, won 7, Lost 2
NZ Played 14, won 14, Lost 0
NZ beat SA home and away

Can't agree but everyone's entitled to an opinion though.

Developmentally and in terms of overall entertainment, I'd say yes.

The ABs, no.

Team of the year - definitely ABs on gongs count.
But entertainment - the Bokke (although it makes me choke to say so).

Oz consolidate third spot. France overtake Wales.

andyi wrote:

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:Oh. I forgot the Safferagettes.

Yeah. Them too, Biltong. Since you did go to the effort of chaining your petticoat to the King's horse.

Bloody Saffers coming up here and being - well , um, err - South African. 

Team of the year imo.

Curious, why?

in 2013:
SA  Played 9, won 7, Lost 2
NZ  Played 14, won 14, Lost 0
NZ beat SA home and away

Can't agree but everyone's entitled to an opinion though.

Boks played 12 matches.

Nice 1.18 point buffer between 3rd and 4th now. That's probably about right.

Wales slip below France now to 6th.

Pot Hale wrote:Samoa's win moves them up some points to 78.79 and into 9th spot.  Scotland down to 10th.  Wales drop two ranks to 8th.  Ireland and Argentina move up one each to 7th and 6th.

Ireland don't have a ranking match this weekend so they'll be happy.


1(1)           NEW ZEALAND 92.91
2(3)        SOUTH AFRICA 85.50    
3(2)       AUSTRALIA 84.82
4(5)        FRANCE 84.58    
5(4)       ENGLAND 83.09    
6(7)         ARGENTINA 80.29
7(8)        IRELAND 79.04
8(6)        WALES 78.95
9(10)          SAMOA 78.79
10(9)      SCOTLAND 77.97
11(11) ITALY 76.61
12(12) TONGA 74.22
13(13) CANADA 71.39
14(14) FIJI 70.60
15(16) JAPAN 68.89
16(15) GEORGIA 67.95
17(17) USA 67.15
18(18) ROMANIA 63.58
19(20) SPAIN 61.63
20(19) RUSSIA 61.51

Way off the mark with your calculations.

Linebreaker wrote:Nice 1.18 point buffer between 3rd and 4th now. That's probably about right.

Wales slip below France now to 6th.

Massive gap from 4th to 5th.

I'm glad we played Australia when we did. Based on the last three games we would have lost those.

End of year official rankings now up.

HammerofThunor wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:Nice 1.18 point buffer between 3rd and 4th now. That's probably about right.

Wales slip below France now to 6th.

Massive gap from 4th to 5th.

I'm glad we played Australia when we did. Based on the last three games we would have lost those.

not really dude.

mystiroakey wrote:

HammerofThunor wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:Nice 1.18 point buffer between 3rd and 4th now. That's probably about right.

Wales slip below France now to 6th.

Massive gap from 4th to 5th.

I'm glad we played Australia when we did. Based on the last three games we would have lost those.

not really dude.

IMO

Take the win, and be proud bud.

We won - lets leave it at that shall we!

Biltong wrote:

andyi wrote:

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:Oh. I forgot the Safferagettes.

Yeah. Them too, Biltong. Since you did go to the effort of chaining your petticoat to the King's horse.

Bloody Saffers coming up here and being - well , um, err - South African. 

Team of the year imo.

Curious, why?

in 2013:
SA  Played 9, won 7, Lost 2
NZ  Played 14, won 14, Lost 0
NZ beat SA home and away

Can't agree but everyone's entitled to an opinion though.

Boks played 12 matches.

Sorry, my bad. your right.

Rugbydata.com have missed out all the results from June 2013 tourists to SA. That's a bit slack of them!!
http://www.rugbydata.com/southafrica/gamesplayed

No worries mate.

Next Internationals in new OP.

Some quick end of year-end stats:
No of NH teams in Top 20 2013: 11
No of SH teams in Top 20 2013: 9

No of NH teams in Top 20 2012: 13
No of SH teams in Top 20 2012: 7

http://www.irb.com/rankings/sportid=1/ranking/index.html



Average ranking position of top 6 NH sides 2013: 7.2
Average ranking position of top 6 SH sides 2013: 5.8

Average ranking position of top 6 NH sides 2012: 7.7
Average ranking position of top 6 SH sides 2012: 5.3

http://www.irb.com/rankings/sportid=1/archive/date=2012-12-31/histranking.html

Happy Xmas & NY everyone.

Update anyone?

Rankings last week were:

Position Union Rating Points
1 NEW ZEALAND 93.81
2 SOUTH AFRICA 89.34
3 AUSTRALIA 86.88
4 ENGLAND 84.52
5 FRANCE 82.05
6 WALES 80.19
7 IRELAND 79.96
8 SAMOA 77.34
9 ARGENTINA 76.44
10 SCOTLAND 75.92
11 FIJI 74.21
12 TONGA 73.21
13 ITALY 73.13
14 JAPAN 72.06
15 CANADA 70.75
16 GEORGIA 69.07
17 ROMANIA 67.47
18 USA 67.41
19 RUSSIA 62.39
20 URUGUAY 60.77

By my calculations:

England 85.18 4th
France 82.05 5th
Ireland 81.04 6th
Wales 79.11 7th
Scotland 75.26 10th
Italy 73.13 13th

Georgia 70.06 16th
Romania 69.85 17th
Russia 60.01 20th
Spain 59.96 21st
Portugal 58.38 24th
Belgium 54.73 30th

So Ireland swap places with Wales.

IRB have updated rankings:

http://www.irb.com/rankings/sportid=1/ranking/index.html

Sorry for not keeping up with the updates. I've been very busy these past two/three weeks but I should be able to find time to resume normal service tomorrow. (Hopefully).

Portnoy's Complaint wrote:Sorry for not keeping up with the updates. I've been very busy these past two/three weeks but I should be able to find time to resume normal service tomorrow.  (Hopefully).

Don't worry, you're a legend for doing it in the first place.

Here's the projections if you want to cut and past:

Position                Union                   Rating Point
1                        NEW ZEALAND        93.81
2                        SOUTH AFRICA       89.34
3                        AUSTRALIA            86.88
4                        ENGLAND               85.18
5                        FRANCE                 82.05
6                        IRELAND                81.05
7                        WALES                  79.10
8                        SAMOA                 77.34
9                        ARGENTINA            76.44
10                      SCOTLAND             75.26
11                      FIJI                      74.21
12                      TONGA                  73.21
13                      ITALY                   73.13
14                      JAPAN                   72.06
15                      CANADA                70.75
16                      GEORGIA               69.57
17                      ROMANIA               68.66
18                      USA                      67.41
19                      RUSSIA                 61.20
20                      URUGUAY               60.77

Wales v France (Wales Friday 21 Feb 2014)
Outcome                             +/-     Wal    Fra     Overtake
If Wal win by 1-15 points       0.995  80.09  81.05  No
If Wal win by more than 15     1.493  80.59  80.56  Yes
If result is a draw                  0.005  79.09  82.05 No
If Fra win by 1-15 points        1.005  78.09  83.05  No
If Fra win by more than 15     1.507   77.59  83.56  No

Italy v Scotland (Italy Saturday 22 Feb 2014)
Outcome                             +/-     Ita    Sco     Overtake
If Ita win by 1-15 points        0.913  74.04  74.35  No
If Ita win by more than 15     1.370   74.50  73.89 Yes
If result is a draw                 0.087  73.04  75.35  No
If Sco win by 1-15 points      1.087   72.04  76.35 No
If Sco win by more than 15 1.630   71.50  76.89 No

England v Ireland (England Saturday 22 Feb 2014)
Outcome                             +/-     Eng    Ire      Overtake
If Eng win by 1-15 points       0.287  85.47  80.76  No
If Eng win by more than 15    0.430   85.61  80.62  No
If result is a draw                 0.713  84.47  81.76  No
If Ire win by 1-15 points        1.713  83.47  82.76  No
If Ire win by more than 15      2.570  82.61  83.62  Yes

Georgia v Russia (Georgia Saturday 22 Feb 2014)
Outcome                             +/-     Geo    Rus     Overtake
If Geo win by 1-15 points       0.000  69.57  61.20  No
If Geo win by more than 15    0.000   69.57 61.20  No
If result is a draw                 2.000   67.57 63.20  No
If Rus win by 1-15 points       4.000   65.57 65.20  No
If Rus win by more than 15     6.000  63.57  67.20  Yes

Romania v Spain (Romania Saturday 22 Feb 2014)
Outcome                             +/-     Rom    Spa     Overtake
If Rom win by 1-15 points      0.000  68.66  59.71   No
If Rom win by more than 15   0.000   68.66  59.71   No
If result is a draw                 2.000  66.66  61.71   No
If Spa win by 1-15 points      4.000   64.66  63.71   No
If Spa win by more than 15    6.000  62.66  65.71   Yes

Belgium v Portugal (Belgium Saturday 22 Feb 2014)
Outcome                             +/-     Bel     Por     Overtake
If Bel win by 1-15 points        2.098  57.49  56.78  Yes
If Bel win by more than 15      3.147  58.54  55.73  Yes
If result is a draw                 0.098   55.49 58.78   No
If Por win by 1-15 points       1.902   53.49  60.78  No
If Por win by more than 15     2.853   52.54 61.73   No

Notes:
France could overtake England
A big win would see Wales overtake France (they can't catch England)
A big win would see Ireland overtake England (and France if they lose)
England can't catch Australia
Italy could overtake Scotland with a big win
A big loss to Scotland would see them fall below Fiji
A big loss to Italy would see them fall below Japan

New OP (6Ns only). Sorry for missing the last round.

Ireland have the chance to test their resilience to vertigo.

Ah 4th is okay, we've seen it often enough to be reasonably familiar with the terrain. It's only when we get into 3rd that altitude sickness can get to us

Wales back into 7th spot as France hurtle down the rankings.

Or to put it another way, Wales rise in 6th position as France slip to 7th. Ireland rise to 5th.

England consolidate 4th place by almost 5 pts 85.47

5 +2 Wales 80.59
6 = Ireland 80.76
7 -2 France 80.56

10 = Scotland 75.26
12 -1 Italy 72.04

Is 80.76 not more than 80.59?

There really ought to be a NH 4 Nations Divisional league.

Biltong wrote:Is 80.76 not more than 80.59?

True.
Ire +1 5th
Wales +1 6th

New OP

I may have fights with you elsewhere Port

But what you do here is most appreciated as I drop in now and again through the year to see the lie of the land.

I look back at the 80s with a mixture of amusement and fondness.

The 90s, all the colour washed away by black.

The same for the decades when I think about it.

SecretFly wrote:I may have fights with you elsewhere Port  

But what you do here is most appreciated as I drop in now and again through the year to see the lie of the land.

That's appreciated, Fly. It can be a chore sometimes but the glacial slowness of the rankings and the harsh laws of mathematics do sometimes raise seismological points of interest,

England will not now catch Australia this 6Ns. And their summer tour to NZ will likely leave the European bragging rights of more interest to V2ers

A very narrow win over Scotland and France in IRB rankings leap frog Ireland who just thrashed Italy. Bit strange?

More points are gained for an away win are they not?

Sgt_Pooly wrote:More points are gained for an away win are they not?

Yeah but dont you get more points for score difference too? France leap frogged two teams. They were fortunate enough to beat Scotland I reckon. Are they really the 5th best team in the world? Maybe so.

Scotland are higher up the table than Italy though so France would have gained a fair whack for their away win.

Ireland at home to 14th placed Italy is never going to score much, even if they won by 100pts.

France move in mysterious ways.

Even the rankings wander aimlessly around the place with them. It never seems to matter quite how bad they look in games, they're always still there or thereabouts at the top end....usually sitting on top of Ireland

We should be happy enough though as statistically the two of us kinda hover up and down the board in a loose partnership together. The trend seems to be continuing.

Not quite. The system adds 3 points to the pre game weighting to determine what the "average outcome is". So a home team will be expected to win by more to gain more points, and will lose more rating points if they lose the game.
Its not though a straight bonus.


Its been a very good system thus far in that if you take that 3 point home weighting and compare the pre game ratings between the two participants its picked the winner of every game to date except Italy Scotland ...which makes it almost as good as Gloria.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:Scotland are higher up the table than Italy though so France would have gained a fair whack for their away win.

Ireland at home to 14th placed Italy is never going to score much, even if they won by 100pts.

 Correct.  And up until today, we wouldn't have gained much from France either were we to beat them next week.  Now of course there is lots in it for us!!!!!!!!!!!  Em, just back in front of them again after a depressing week

Ireland got nothing off Italy as they were more than 10 points ahead of them (including the home bonus). England can't get anything off Italy either (even with it being an away game).

According to the rankings they expect English, Welsh and French wins. We shall see.

EDIT: and position is less important than points.

HammerofThunor wrote:

EDIT: and position is less important than points.

And neither of those are as important as the ball

Which one?

em......................... in this scenario, the one in Cardiff? Scotland have the most realistic chance of going anywhere of much significance next weekend if they win? I mean it might be up two places or so.

I meant left or right. Bit of crossed wires there.

Is the Scotland v Wales game in Cardiff then? If so Wales are on 83.4 and Scotland 75.5. So if Scotland win they'll get around 1.8 (2.4 for a hammering). So unless they hammer Wales they'll only get above Argentina (if they hammer Wales they'll go above Samoa). Wales will stay in at least 7th...I think.

If Italy win they'll go up to 12th (a thrashing and it'll be 11th). In this case I think Ireland would have to hammer France to go into 4th.

Over the years I've ridiculed these rankings a bit but as a rough estimate of where a team is at they do tend to be scarily accurate. Even the random enough use of '3' points for playing home/away seems to over time work out close to the mark.