I predict an Upset. Ten reasons why I am right.

Well sports fans, I've read the tea leaves and can now reveal that Wales will in fact, despite the current mood of gloom beat NZ next weekend.

Let me tell you why.

Firstly, this NZ team have been hot and cold and are probably a little over rated. They've had some very close scrapes against Ireland, SA and Australia and even Argentina were unconvincing. The style Hansen has them playing requires very high accuracy and they are currently only hitting their straps on occasion. They've been most vulnerable when they've been a bit cocky...second test against Ireland, final Bledisloe Cup test.

Secondly Wales have been poopie. Bluesman has convinced me of this and we know even though we like to poke the hornets nest a bit on it that Wales are actually a decent side who have good players and are currently in a collective form slump.

Thirdly, Wales themselves were probably targeting the NZ game and taking ARG and SAM a bit lightly, so with their backs against the wall and anticipating redemption in a game they were always targeting, coupled with their added 10% they seem to manage when facing their nemesis I can predict a big committed display from them.

Fourthly Gatland is back for this match. I can now safely assert that Howley is not up to the job and whilst absent Gatland will have been watching the rotated combinates with some keen eye and will have benefited from this opportunity. I suspect he will nail the starting selection and bench, and his "inside" knowledge of the ABs will be a bonus too.

Fifthly, the sequence of NZ wins over Wales is frankly ridiculous, and eventually luck has to bounce in Wales' favour and now is as good a time as any.

Sixth, the MS turf is poopie and will hinder NZ's fast paced game and tire the legs. NZ have not looked any more than proficient in slow grinding games. The ball security has been suspect in close exchanges and the set piece is still a work in progress.

Seventh, NZ have injuries to key back line players and have also rested and rotated hence the combination of rust and absence will also abbreviate the fluidity required for the 2012 style.

Eigthth, Ali Williams is in the team and so is Piri Weepu. My bet is both will be on the bench. Neither should be.

Nineth, since this is the second to last game of the season some minds will be turning to home and a summer break. With the winning streak gone, focus is starting to drift.

Finally Tenth, it was in the tea leaves. I told you already.

Are you nuts?

I might have agreed but Wales have had too many injuries to raise their game.

Good effort AWOP, however I don't think it is helping any Welsh fan.

Cyanide or a time machine will help me.

AWOP, was this 'special' tea? I had a mug once in Amsterdam and ended up with a traffic cone on my head and scratch marks all over my ass and back and not one idea how they got there.

If there is one constant about the Welsh it is their enviably relentless unshakable faith that despite all odds and evidence to the contrary they will win anyway, and frankly it's messing with my autism to see you guys like this. What's happened? Don't lose faith now!!

some interesting points there AWOP ......but Dan Carter is fit and in form...

It's definitely going to be close AWOP. Many Wales punters are hiding underneath the covers so to speak but I think you're right and that this will be much closer. In saying that, I don't agree it will be a victory for Wales. Here are my reasons:

1. NZ will have close to a full strength side. Not sure of the status of Israel Dagg and his back injury but aside from him Hansen should have the best team to pick from.

2. Biggar is injured and Priestland is not up to the task. You need to be able to control a game and flyhalf is a key position in that area. Priestland simply must be given time away from the game to realise his kicking and option taking is killing Wales' chances.

3. Sequence of victories is irrelevant. If you don't perform you get beaten. Like NZ found out against Ireland in the second test and against Australia in Brisbane. But there will be no complacency for this test as the last two games have been already targeted as the most difficult challenges and NZ responds mentally to those challenges.

4. NZ did have a complete game against Scotland but when they are focused and in full flight, they amass points that make it practically impossible for the opposition to recover from. I don't expect a complete performance against Wales but I do expect a big enough run of passages of play where we score a few tries.

If you're right though, I will gladly eat humble pie and offer a very interesting prive to buy those tea leaves from you and use them to pick my Euromillions numbers.

An interesting story Kia, is the same lady who sells me the tea leaves also once helped me predict the euromillions numbers, but she also mentioned that despite knowing I now had the winning numbers I would forget to buy the ticket. And she was right! I tell you Romanian women are tricksy.

But I have some magic beans for sale if you're interested? overnight they'll grow into a magic bean stalk and down it will climb giant atheltic props capable of unstoppable dynamism in the loose and rigorous set piece work too. So far I've sold some to the RFU and they've given me 3 stars for reliablity in the feedback section with their only real complaint that they "didn't look English and people are starting to ask questions".

Only chance Wales have of beating New Zealand is if New Zeland loose half the team to yellow cards offences commited at the same time.

Fair play GreyG, you've planted the optimism bubble quite early with this bizzare list you tinker you. Wales may well improve, but will be on the end of the usual drubbing were surely there's no chance of some smug posts come the final whistle....

majesticimperialman wrote:Only chance Wales have of beating New Zealand is if New Zeland loose half the team to yellow cards offences commited at the same time.

Lose Madge. Basics.

It's nice to see you Kiwis attempt to build our supporters confidence up, but it really isn't going to happen. I am not sure it will be the massacre that some are predicting (nobody was predicting a Welsh win in this really anyway), but NZ will win by a good 30-40 points.

Just been to the gym and came back to find this thread! What ya'll smoking on? OK, the OP was a bit of a WUM but then NZ fans agreeing that it may be close?!

In my experience as a welsh fan, when we're down we're down. We're not like the wounded springboks or the un fancied wallabies, who can go from a dip in form to brush you aside like the top teams that they are. This is Wales, and all of the pressure, despair, criticism just seems to compound our poor performances. We might show some heart next week and be competitive for 30 mins, but I reckon that will be in defence, and then we'll be knackered and then we'll start leaking points like a sieve.

Not interested in the beans. Just give me the tea leaves but like Memento I will stay one step ahead and tattoo the numbers on my body when I recieve them and carry round photos of a Euromillions shop with the phrase on the back you must buy the numbers you see on your arm and a photo of the tea lady with the words Do not believe her lies but write down her numbers.

Griff I was rubbished when I predicted the RWC final would be a close thing. What has happened is irrelevant. What will happen this weekend is what matters and if a team raises its game and attitude anything can happen.

It's great that you think Wales can do that. Just in my experience of watching us since the 90s we seldom do.

Well if you read my first post, I said NZ will win. I just said it won't be a walk in the park.

I know, I acknowledged that with "NZ fans agreeing it may be close". It's just a positive that you think Wales has it in them to be close. Not much positivity around at the moment!

I think it will Kia, especially with the return of Hansen to his motherland.

A rest by the main team after a spirited Italy match will have our guys chomping. Wont be 60 but it also wont be under 15. Over with 20 minutes to go I believe. I'd be disappointed if Wales try to play an open game. Theyre not up to it. They must restrict the damage, and spoil or they could be in trouble when their heads drop.

Theyve got to be prepared to put in 80 minutes of tight, close marking, in your face stuff or they will succumb to the faster game.

Yeah fair enough mate. It's tough when you know you are capable of doing better but don't deliver. Probably much tougher than when you are playing well and don't win like against SA in the RWC.

But when your team is down, that's when it needs its fans the most. Stick by them, point out their weaknesses by all means, but never lose faith. Kia kaha.

That's the thing Kia. We're not able to say that we're 'capable of doing better' because apparently it's disrespectful, arrogant, unrealistic, etc! We've been told it time and time again. Hard to win on here sometimes!

Ultimately it's what you think that matters. People can amazingly offer up fresh perspectives for you but deep down you know what your side is capable of. At the moment it seems many in Wales are overly pessimistic and all too many from outside are overly dismissive. But it works the other way too. NZ are not so far ahead as many write on here. They can be made to look mortal and Wales and England will probably be the best at exposing this invincible fallacy.

I agree NZ will be beaten by Wales, I said it a long time ago and eluded to the fact the Wales team was working toward the NZ game.

First game rusty, wrong selections and seemingly no idea what to do with the ball.

2nd game 8 changes wrong selection and seemingly no Idea what to do with the ball.

Thirdly NZ nowhere to go from the heights they are at, Wales nowhere to go nut up from the dulldrums they are at.

Without the injuries I'd say Wales would win, but I'm not sure if the injuries will take their toll...

Good to see you haven't lost faith bluesmancometh and are still sticking to your prediction from a while back. Good man.

Kia

Very emotional last night, am going to rewatch the game this afternoon with no emotion (and with some of my analysis software) and find out exactly what happened.

Sometimes when in a sinking boat you best bet is to dive in and get the first punch in at the shark circling. We now have to make a choice, do we dive in and punch the shark or stand there and salute for a few more breaths while the shark slowly devours us!!

I wouldn't say NZ have nowhere to go. We scraped through a fairly average game against Italy just now. Heaps to improve on.

But far more from your performance to lose IMO... NZ are in trouble, here haka haka haka!!!

*sigh*, I preferred the Miteyironpaw character..........

Think it might be a tight match. Wales are better than losses v Arg and Sam. They should raise their game if not I have no idea why they are suddenly so sh1t.