Wales v Australia, 1/12/12, k/o 14:30. DISCUSSION/MATCH THREAD, PREDICTIONS POLL & TEAMS

[Guest]

First topic message reminder :

So, on the back of Wales's 10-33 defeat to New Zealand, and Australia's 19-22 victory over Italy, we look towards the final Autumn fixture for both teams.

Having played each other five times in the last twelve months, with the three Tests in the Summer ending 27-19, 25-23, and 20-19, this was, prior to the Autumn, the SANZAR scalp Wales must have felt they could realistically take on home soil.

How important is it for Wales to win? Must they win to hold onto their 'top-8' status, to try and avoid either England or Ireland, and equally so Argentina and Samoa, in their World Cup group? Or do they need to win to halt the decline since the Grand Slam success and the competitiveness of the Australia tour in the Summer? Do they need to win to have any hope of defending their 6 Nations crown? What effect does regional form have upon the way the players performed this Autumn? Can they beat Australia, and how? Should we look outside the current squad, especially in certain positions in the pack, due to injury and non-released players? If so, who do we bring in?




It has not gone to plan for Wales. Sitting in 4th spot on the iRB rankings following the Grand Slam success, they were in 6th place prior to the Autumn series and attempting to regain the coveted 4th to ensure a 'favourable' draw for the World Cup. However, they now sit tentatively in 7th position, only just ahead of Argentina and Samoa, both victorious at the Millennium Stadium, and a defeat to the Wallabies will mean they will have fallen from 4th to 9th following 7 straight Test defeats, and they will be in the third 'tier' for the World Cup seedings. This means they would face one of the first tier (New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, France) and one of the second tier (England, Ireland, Samoa, Argentina) in their group if they lose next Saturday.

This cannot be the position Wales expected to be in three weeks ago, yet having been deservedly beaten in the first two fixtures due to playing a pedestrian, 'territorially-minded' game-plan, they can have little complaint. It was only until the last half hour of the NZ game that Wales displayed any acceptance that their tactics were not conducive to success; you cannot score tries without the ball, and against the best teams you will be slaughtered if you kick down their throats. With New Zealand able to take it down a notch or two around the 50 minute mark, having being invited onto the ball, which they duly did, scoring 33 unanswered points, Wales finally played the running rugby they ought to be famed for, but it was too little too late.

Aside from the tactical noose that is evidently not working, or indeed not being implemented successfully and without error so that Wales can play the low-risk strategy Gatland favours, selection has been a major issue. For the Argentina game, with Ryan Jones and Dan Lydiate injured,
Josh Turnbull started at 6, with his club captain McCusker the back row cover on the bench. Both of these were selected ahead of their Scarlets teammate Aaron Shingler, who was playing exceptionally better rugby at regional level and, when called upon against New Zealand, performed admirably and effectively, something that cannot be said for Turnbull and McCusker. Mike Phillips, although excellent defensively, and a danger when sniping at close quarters, as he did yesterday, is woefully slow to the breakdown, especially when a linebreak is made, something in itself that is too infrequent for Wales. Tavis Knoyle is marginally better, although he himself, like the admission of Shingler, is arguably no longer the strongest scrum half for his region, with Gareth Davies in fine form. With Richie Rees, perhaps the best Welsh distributor after Dwayne Peel, no longer in Gatland's plans, and Rhys Webb ignored, there is decidedly little to choose from. Poor service, whoever it comes from, has been used poorly by Priestland, subject to ironic cheering from the crowd when successfully kicking to touch prior to Wales's first try against NZ and when replaced by James Hook. Priestland has been kicking almost persistently to the detriment of the team, but with the constant repetition of the mantra about 'territory' and "playing in the right areas" ('Re-boot the attack' section), the coaches must be pleased with his decision making, his only fault his execution. With James Hook having played 13 minutes all Series, and unavailable for the Australia game, and the extent of Dan Biggar's injury unknown at present, Priestland is likely to remain in the 10 shirt. Liam Williams performed admirably when he stepped up for George North, as did Scott Andrews for the injured Aaron Jarvis. The latter will likely start in Jarvis's absence, but with a reliance of Halfpenny's boot, Liam Williams will, in all probability, miss out. With French-based players (the excellent Charteris, Phillips, and the somewhat out of form Gethin Jenkins) missing out on selection due to the game falling outside the iRB window, and possibly English-based players too, the squad may be weakened somewhat. With AWJ unavailable, Bradley Davies floored, and uncertainty over Ian Evans, we are facing something of a second row crisis. However, for me, the best 15 we could produce, based on who is in the squad, is as follows. Feel free to add your own:

1. Paul James
2. Ken Owens
3. Scott Andrews
4. Luke Charteris
5. Ian Evans
6. Aaron Shingler
7. Sam Warburton
8. Toby Faletau
9. Tavis Knoyle
10. Dan Biggar
11. George North
12. Scott Williams
13. Jonathan Davies
14. Alex Cuthbert
15. Leigh Halfpenny

16. Matthew Rees
17. Ryan Bevington
18. Samson Lee
19. Ryan Jones
20. Justin Tipuric
21. Lloyd Williams
22. Rhys Priestland
23. Liam Williams

*If both starting second rows are unavailable, we are in something of a crisis. We would likely be forced to start with Ryan Jones at lock, and possibly Lou Reed too, with Aaron Shingler covering the position, and someone else coming in to fill a replacement position. But I do not know who.

This is far from the 15 I think is the 'best', but it is the best of what I can make with who is in the squad.

So on to Australia. I do not believe that they are a confident team, nowhere near the free-flowing, off the cuff team of two years ago, with key players such as David Pocock struggling (though the excellent Michael Hooper has stepped up in his absence) and James Horwill suffering with injury. At the end of a long tour, Wales have to see them as beatable. Yet, on the back the tightest of wins against Italy, they will surely be fully prepared, and any expectations of catching them dreaming of the sunny shores of home will most probably be misplaced, and punished by the men in gold. Berrick Barnes is a key man, who will punish Wales on the scoreboard in a manner Priestland chose not to in the first half against New Zealand; any mistakes will be chipped away 3 by 3, and if we kick to the Wallabies three quarters, they have the running ability to cut us to shreds. Yet the size of our midfield ought to be an asset, and if we keep the ball in hand, Scott Williams and Jon Davies are capable of both creating and scoring tries. I feel their selection over the injury prone Jamie Roberts, who has been ineffective, and needs time away from international rugby to regain form and develop his game from simply being a human wrecking ball, is imperative to Wales playing a quicker game, less reliant on their formulaic and obvious ball carriers, something Samoa said they were all too aware of. The England-Australia game was tight, but winnable for England, a team who I think are about on a par with Wales, both playing their own brand of tactically poor rugby that does their talented players a disservice (no Mike Phillips pun intended). In this sense, Wales can and should win, regardless of their form in the previous 3 games. It's imperative for World Cup rankings, but perhaps more importantly, to stop the slide and finally get the win, and psychological boon that comes with it, that they ought to have had in the Summer, but for some silly mistakes.

Wales team to face Australia:
15. Leigh Halfpenny
14. Alex Cuthbert
13. Jonathan Davies
12. Jamie Roberts
11. Liam Williams
10. Rhys Priestland
9. Mike Phillips

1. Gethin Jenkins
2. Matthew Rees
3. Scott Andrews
4. Luke Charteris
5. Ian Evans
6. Aaron Shingler
7. Sam Warburton (capt)
8. Toby Faletau.

Bench:
16. Ken Owens
17 Ryan Bevington
18. Samson Lee
19. Ryan Jones
20. Justin Tipuric
21. Tavis Knoyle
22. Dan Biggar
23. Scott Williams

Australia team to face Wales:

15. Berrick Barnes
14. Nick Cummins
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper
12. Ben Tapuai
11. Drew Mitchell
10. Kurtley Beale
9. Nick Phipps

1. Benn Robinson
2. Tatafu Polota Nau
3. Ben Alexander
4. Kane Douglas
5. Nathan Sharpe (capt)
6. Scott Higginbotham
7. David Pocock
8.Wycliff Palu

Bench:
16. Stephen Moore
17. James Slipper
18. Sekope Kepu
19. Dave Dennis
20. Michael Hooper
21. Brendan McKibbin
22. Mike Harris
23. Digby Ioane.

[kiakahaaotearoa]

That's not to say bedfordwelsh that you still can't learn from these mistakes. It's all about attitude. It's easy to throw in the towel but you have to be bigger than that. Write open letters to Gatland and Howley. Focus your energy into saying how you could be better rather than saying all is lost.

[bedfordwelsh]

Osprey,

Out of those injured or not available who would have improved the game management.

None of them spring to mind for me

[Ospreydragon]

"Out of those injured or not available who would have improved the game management. " -- Forwards should be capable of holding on to the ball for a few phases! Players like Lydiate would have helped. Wales were fielding a very weak front 5, and started a hooker whose throwing is poor. The lineout cost us the game probably. I hope we have far more forwards, including a fit Lydiate, in the 6N.

Halfpenny had a decent game, but he's no fullback. Only Wales can keep playing players out of position. It's not working.

[samuraidragon]

Osprey,

Out of those injured or not available who would have improved the game management.

None of them spring to mind for me

It was the Grand Slam side minus North, Adam & AWJ. The Aussies had far more first rank players unavailable than us.

Result as expected.

[majesticimperialman]

Did not realise that the game was on the same time has the England game or i would of recorded it.
Sounds like Wales had a touch of bad luck.

How did Gethin Jenkins play?

[Ospreydragon]

How did Gethin Jenkins play? -- Pretty inconspicuously.

[glamorganalun]

[quote="bedfordwelsh"][quote="Morgannwg"][quote="kiakahaaotearoa"]

If we had kept 1 out of 4 of the Locks that started in the squad we would have won that game.

Rubbish absolute rubbish, we have been naive and poor in our tactics all season and until we learn to keep the ball in hand and don't kick aimlessly down the oppositions throat especially in the last minute we are were we belong to be 9th.

Tell me why we didn't just run the clock down pick n drive etc, tell me hy were we constantly turned over or got isolated. None of those problems would have eased with the likes of AWJ Evans or Davies on the pitch this afternoon.


As soon as we got into the last 5 minutes I had a sickening feeling that they would win and we would fail to close yet another game out.

Correct, watching the game I just knew we would blow the line out which we were lucky to have and lose the game. Same as in Aust, time almost up we kicked down field when a line out would have used up time, yes we could have still lost but we would have been set not running around in broken play. We need a flyhalf with a brain and calm under pressure and thinks for himself and it is anybody but Preistland.

I don't think the ref was kind to Wales as usual, no yellow for a dangerous tackle just like he let go in the Samoa game against Biggar and Halfpenny. Even B Moore was confused by a number of decisions, but that is W Barnes.

[Ospreydragon]

"It was the Grand Slam side minus North, Adam & AWJ." -- Lydiate was in the GS side.

[glamorganalun]

Lydiate did not play in the best performance against Ireland, R Jones played 6, then got shunted to 2nd row against Scotland for Lydiate to play 6.

[samuraidragon]

"It was the Grand Slam side minus North, Adam & AWJ." -- Lydiate was in the GS side.

Yes, you're right. Sorry. But let's not forget Oz were without Genia, OConnor, Horwill, Simmons, McCabe, Horne etc


The England result today highlights what a shambles our gameplan was against the ABs. England put points on the board from the getgo, went into halftime 15 pts clear and guess what, the ABs crumbled. Newsflash - they are not superhuman after all. We played like we expected to lose. England played like they expected to win.

Today was better, but still not good enough.

[maestegmafia]

"We are pretty gutted. Apart from the last minute we played some outstanding rugby.

"It was a close, tight, tough Test match and we should have won it. It was a tough match and the last minute try is a bit disappointing.

"Even if we had won today we would have been very disappointed with letting one or two go this autumn.

"We played some really good rugby and we showed we are a good side but you need to be smarter at the death.

"It was obvious to us from the stands that they were going to move the ball in the last few minutes and we shouldn't have allowed them to get out of their 22. That is disappointing.

"There is not much difference between the two teams. They are a tough team to beat but I didn't think they played a lot of rugby.

"Leigh Halfpenny has gone straight to hospital, we don't know the situation yet."

[majesticimperialman]

maes. Is is down to injuries that Wales have not won a game this Ais?

Or is it more of a fitness thing?

[wales606]

maes. Is is down to injuries that Wales have not won a game this Ais?

Or is it more of a fitness thing?

It is more of a gameplan and form thing

Although losing AWJ, I.Evans, Bradley Davies and Luke Charteris over the course of 4 matches did not help.

[maestegmafia]

maes. Is is down to injuries that Wales have not won a game this Ais?

Or is it more of a fitness thing?

It is more of a gameplan and form thing

Although losing AWJ, I.Evans, Bradley Davies and Luke Charteris over the course of 4 matches did not help.

No neither did not having Adam Jones, Craig Mitchell, or Aaron Jarvis available.


I didn't think we played badly today, or last week. Mistakes are very costly, we know that more than ever.

[Guest]

Well as i said we will lose, not the good hiding i predicted but they lost.

Pundits talking about pulling positives out of the game thou!! hilarious Wales lost that's all that really matters in sport infact numnuts that's is the whole point of sport.

As an incredibly arrogant individual who thinks is better than everyone else and backs one's self all the way ,i find it so hard how such physical men i.e "the Wales team" can be so fragile mentally?!

There is no secret answer to being mentally tough, all you have to do is man the F up.

So now to the Six Nations, who cares? we will win it or end mid to lower table, but so what? who wants to be the big fish in a small pond?

Consistently beating the big three is what makes a great team.

We have the players we have a little more depth but we have the wrong tactics and the wrong mental attitude,
Trying the same tactics over the last four years on how to beat a southern hemisphere team is just crazy, it's like putting the ball under a cup mixing all three cups around then picking the left cup every time in some vain attempt that the laws of statistics might help you do it right.

Gatland the man? yes! will he be coming back after his Lions tour? i doubt it very much.
So i bid you good bye now Gatland it's been emotional.

[sickofwendy]

Sport can be very cruel sometimes and Wales have had a lot of bad luck.wouldn't be surprised if they won another slam next year.

[Ospreydragon]

"Wales have had a lot of bad luck" -- There is some truth in that, but Wales are tactically naive and often one-dimensional and too predictable. We also pick players who lack real agility -- players who can swerve their body while maintaing pace, sidestep, and show some real guile, vision and craft. We also don't think clearly on the field and lack the ability to shut down a game in the closing minutes.

The Wales coaches need to dramatically change Wales attack and really work with players who can play to structure, but vary play and and play with vision. Just compare Roberts with Tuilagi at 12, for example. Tuilagi has far greater pace, but he also has more agility -- he can swerve and twist, and use his body weight to great effect, with a great hand-off. Roberts is too one-dimensional, lacks pace and agility and distribution skills and kicking skills! He is not a centre and never really has been. Similarly, Halfpenny is not a fullback. It was interesting to hear JD also say that 1/2p is not a FB -- I totally agree with him.

I said it in an earlier post -- I hope that v few Welsh players go on the Lions tour, for I fear a Gatlandgate to rival the Henrygate saga in the aftermath of the 2001 Lions tour.

[glamorganalun]

I predicted 16+ but I now realise how bad the Aust team that faced Wales. I stated if Biggar was at 10 it would have been very close, I believe Biggar would have seen out the game today. Although it was a tight game that I did not expect, it was still a poor performance as a team not helped by odd reffing.

It seems anybody with half a brain knows you don'y kick to Aust under no pressure and even worse in the last minute of the game, Preistland was talked up by Howley at the press conf which demonstrates he (Howley) should be be the one to be dropped (sacked) for constantly picking a 3rd rate flyhalf and leave the better flyhalf on the bench time and time again.

[Guest]

Im no fan of Biggar but as soon as Wales went ahead and had around 10mins to play i thought Biggar should come on and control the territory and see out the game.
He may have faults but i have seen him many times for the Ospreys close out a close game.

[Seagultaf]

Despite not having a line out forward on the field for 50 of the 80 mins and Barnes harsh interpretations at the breakdown, Wales were the better side. I can't understand why people are blaming Rees, the line out was fine when Charteris was on the field. Rees also contributed to a very good scrum which was no where near as strong when he went off.

Despite thrashing England, this was a poor Autralian side. Wales lost by not having a lock/line out forward on the bench (with their 4 first choice locks injured it was difficult) and by switching off at the end of the game. Lou Reed got caught out of position in the defensive line and Australia scored a very soft try with almost their only attacking move of the game. Heart breaking!

North, Adam Jones, Mitchell, Alyn Wyn, Ian Evans, Brad Davies, Lydiate, will make a big difference in the 6N.

[Seagultaf]

Im no fan of Biggar but as soon as Wales went ahead and had around 10mins to play i thought Biggar should come on and control the territory and see out the game.
He may have faults but i have seen him many times for the Ospreys close out a close game.

Its the Ospreys dominant pack that allows him to close out a game, Priesland was doing well behind a pack that was struggling in both set pieces and at the breakdown.

[HammerofThunor]

I honestly thought you guys had done it this time. I stood in shock for about 2 minutes after Beale's try. The double heartbreak with Halfpenny's injury (hope he recovers well). Again so so close but no good in the end.

And Australia thrashed England? You mean the 6 point drubbing where England had turned down several penalties? I know your last few losses to Australia have been very close but that wasn't a thrashing. The only difference between the sides was a decent counter attack off a loose kick.

[neilthom7]

I felt for you guys, you should have won that. Asilly mistake kicking the ball away though with less than 2 mins remaining when they turned the Aussies over there then I thought they had won but then they kicked it back which I couldn't understand. I hope Halfpenny has a very speedy recovery.

[gavstar]

seagull, no forward pack made rp miss touch at 1 minute to go, only his poor execution of a simple winning kick. and he was not doing well as you suggest. look at the second half again and you will see he was doing the old hook trick of hiding.

yes hiding. hanging back, out of position, as far from the action as possible.

biggar is the future for wales.

most posters slag off steven jones type of steady eddie play, rp is steven jones mark2 without the accuracy, so why the anti biggar lobby? at least the guy tries to change things, at least hes thinking not brain dead!!!!!!!

we need a 10 who can take the game and make decisions, rp is not that man.

[Casartelli]

"We are pretty gutted. Apart from the last minute we played some outstanding rugby....."

Did Gatland really say that? He's losing his grip on reality since he fell off that ladder.

We play a dismal brand of conservative rugby that only works a) against NH teams when b) we have all our best players on the pitch.

We persist with a kicking game yet the preferred outside half is, even when on form, a hopeless kicker.

We lack power in contact but have plenty of pace - but we spend 70 mins of every game trying to run through and over opposition players rather than attack the spaces between them.

It's all very strange now. Gatland seems happy and the coaching entourage are operating in a cosy little bubble where all looks well, regardless of what's happening on the pitch.

So, more of the same for the 6N - we'd better hope we get all our first choice players fit and well in time.

[Peter Seabiscuit Wheeler]

It's like he's been replaced by Steve borthwick

[BlueNote]

There is an issue of work ethic, strangely enough. It was noticeable at times yesterday how slowly Wales got reorganised whether in defence or attack, and sometimes that was behind RP not quite knowing what to do with the ball and ending up kicking, because there wasn't anything structured outside him.

[mystiroakey]

how did you guys play.. was it competitive?

sorry i was to wrapped up in the bEST GAME for 10 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Casartelli]

how did you guys play.. was it competitive?

sorry i was to wrapped up in the bEST GAME for 10 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gave Aussies a much closer game than England did.

[mystiroakey]

ok well done then...

[wales606]

Great news

http://www.wru.co.uk/eng/news/24264.php#.ULtNbYOTquJ

[Guest]

Still so gutted as a fan from that loss, the players must be hurting a thousand times more,
take the pain thou lads remember it like a stab wound always look at the scar it has left, let it make you bitter and angry let it drive you forward.

[HammerofThunor]

Still so gutted as a fan from that loss, the players must be hurting a thousand times more,
take the pain thou lads remember it like a stab wound always look at the scar it has left, let it make you bitter and angry let it drive you forward.

Weren't they doing that for the previous 6 loses as well? There'll be nothing but scar tissue left at this rate...

Hopefully you'll beat them before 2015 but imagine the sweetness if the win comes by knocking them out of the WC in the pools in the last game of the pools (for the first time?)

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