Leinster v Scarlets HC

First topic message reminder :

Leinster Rugby wrote:
The Leinster squad have stepped up their preparations ahead of Saturday evening's Heineken Cup Round 5 encounter against the Scarlets in the RDS (KO: 6pm)...
Fresh from Friday night’s bonus point victory over Edinburgh, the management have reported no fresh major injury concerns aside from the usual bumps and bruises.

Meanwhile, returning trio Luke Fitzgerald, Rob Kearney and Brian O’Driscoll all successfully came through the game and suffered no ill effects after their respective long-term injuries.

The management are hopeful that Isa Nacewa and Richardt Strauss will both return to the panel for the visit of the Llanelli based side. Dave Kearney and Eoin O’Malley should also come into the frame to join Ireland international Fergus McFadden, who was rested for the victory in the Scottish capital.

With the ‘A’ side also in action in the British & Irish Cup against Pontypridd in Donnybrook on Saturday afternoon (KO: 2pm) it is another busy week for the province which moved from their base in UCD to a short two-day camp in Johnstown House on Monday lunchtime.

Were I Joe Schmidt I would select this team. Although there may be wisdom in starting Strauss and seeing how long he can go for, rather than bringing him off the bench and finding it was not as long as we thought.

Our only injuries are Roux and Browne which leaves us short on tight head locks.

Healy
Cronin
Ross
Cullen
Toner
O'Brien
Jennings
Heaslip

Reddan
Sexton
Nacewa
D'Arcy
O'Driscoll
McFadden
Kearney

Strauss
Van der Merwe
Bent
McLaughlin/Denton
Murphy/McLaughlin
Boss
Madigan
Fitzgerald

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:For any Leinster fans watching today:

we want Edinburgh to beat Munster (or Munster not get the TBP) -
we want Treviso to beat Toulouse
we want Ospreys to beat Leicester (no LBP for Leicester)

These results are fairly crucial, we also have to hope that Tuolon beat Montpellier next week.

Highly possible Munster wont get BP today in fact I wouldnt be confident at all
No Chance
Thats a hard one to call Ospreys have a very slim chance and may not be focusing on this. However they have a good home record and a good rivalry with Tigers. Really looking forward to seeing how this pans out. My money would be on Tigers for a win.

Teams currently in running for the two best runners up are in currently in this order (me thinks but welcome any corrections)

1. Pool 6 Montpellier - currently on 18 points but with Toulon to play away. Toulon are on 23 so through already. Possible outcomes are Toulong finish in 18, 19 (with losing bp) or 23.

2. Pool 1 Munster - currently on 10 can finish on 21 - need two winning BPs aginst Embra and RM at home (who are out and may not travel with conviction.

3. Pool 2 - Tigers / Toulouse - currently on 14 and 13. Assume for just for worst case scenarios both end up today on 19 and 18 they still have to play each other. Barring a draw on in this game the most the runner up will finish on is either 20 or 19.

4. Leinster - max can finish on is 20. Still to play for. Toulon could beat Montpellier out the door next week and Tigers could beat Toulouse next week. Therefore 20 points would be enough.

Others include BO

In summary still all to play for Leinster and Munster as both could go through as best runners up.

sheephead wrote:With Madigans try pete I think he thought that it was Williams who had held him back a few phases earlier. He was pulled back by male I think, when he turned around Williams was the next player her saw. Started from there.

Pete suppose you could say the same for the predominantly Irish tactic of holding a player up around his neck, very dangerous, I don't like seeing, as you said each to their own.

Madigan's try was off a scrum I am pretty sure.
This is just my viewpoint and I am in no way medically qualified but I think it is significantly more dangerous to have a collision to the neck rather than being held by the neck in a maul situation, that is just from my playing experience however. The former definitely hurts more

Sorry Pete I amended my last post, I was replying to Mrs P's post. I thin your right madigans try was off the scrum. Williams and McFaddens handbags started a little while before that. Leinster were attacking down the left, there was a few offloads and McFadden had his arm held I think to stop him supporting. After that they seemed to be around each other a lot.
I can only remember one high tackle around the neck from Williams. I remember two up right tackles, but the arms went around the chest or back?

BlueMuff wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:For any Leinster fans watching today:

we want Edinburgh to beat Munster (or Munster not get the TBP) -
we want Treviso to beat Toulouse
we want Ospreys to beat Leicester (no LBP for Leicester)

These results are fairly crucial, we also have to hope that Tuolon beat Montpellier next week.

Highly possible Munster wont get BP today in fact I wouldnt be confident at all
No Chance
Thats a hard one to call Ospreys have a very slim chance and may not be focusing on this. However they have a good home record and a good rivalry with Tigers. Really looking forward to seeing how this pans out. My money would be on Tigers for a win.

Teams currently in running for the two best runners up are in currently in this order (me thinks but welcome any corrections)

1. Pool 6 Montpellier - currently on 18 points but with Toulon to play away. Toulon are on 23 so through already. Possible outcomes are Toulong finish in 18, 19 (with losing bp) or 23.

2. Pool 1 Munster - currently on 10 can finish on 21 - need two winning BPs aginst Embra and RM at home (who are out and may not travel with conviction.

3. Pool 2 - Tigers / Toulouse - currently on 14 and 13. Assume for just for worst case scenarios both end up today on 19 and 18 they still have to play each other. Barring a draw on in this game the most the runner up will finish on is either 20 or 19.

4. Leinster - max can finish on is 20. Still to play for. Toulon could beat Montpellier out the door next week and Tigers could beat Toulouse next week. Therefore 20 points would be enough.

Others include BO

In summary still all to play for Leinster and Munster as both could go through as best runners up.

Nice summary,I was pretty sure we had a better chance than a lot of posters were suggesting.I think Toulon will beat Montpellier as they'll want a top seeding and a home quarter final.

3 Irish quarter finalists sounds good to me.

I think Toulon will beat Montpellier too as they will want a Home QF, god imagine going there for a 1/4 final!!!

We really don't want many BP's in any shape or form

toulon are guaranteed home qf with a lpb.

not convinced they will NEED the win. they would likely play toulouse or Leicester with an lbp or one of the 2nd place teams with a win.
if Munster lose today a 5 pointer next week will almost certainly get us through.

Leicester toulouse group results dont make much odds as long as leicester dont get a bp

whoever said heaslip and darce had anything but great games is mad (esp heaslip) and anyone who thinks ruddock should be within 20 miles of him in his worst back row position.... well I just despair.

The fact is we're depending on other results so I might as well mentally prepare myself for the worst. And just hope for the best.

If we get lucky and go through I'd be confident of taking any team on away from home in the quarters. Then who knows, could be semi final and final in Dublin. I'm getting ahead of myself.

COME ON OSPREYS!

O´s should be at least on 16/19 pts now. They may pay for their wastage in the 2nd half. Hope O´s can keep up this intensity at the breakdown with Jones off now. Bearman and Tipuric have been huge there.

Where does that draw leave us?

We need to beat Exeter with 4 tries, Montpellier to lose to Toulon and for either Munster or Leicester to lose or for us to have scored more tries than either of them? Is that right?

Doesn't matter what happens with Leicester,we only need to worry about finishing ahead of either Montpellier or Munster..I think Toulon will beat Montpellier so if (big if) we get 5 points at Exeter that should do it.

Another gash game from Tavis Knoyle then?

This has worked out pretty ok for us.

We need to score more tries than Munster basically.
If Munster get 4 tries and a try bonus point then we need to get 5 tries.

Edinburgh holding Munster at bay has really helped us.

If Racing send up a 3rd choice team however then we could be in trouble because it has literally become a shoot out between us and Munster.

If Montpellier lose to Toulon and get a LBP then we need to beat Exeter with a TBP. If Montpellier lose without a LBP then we just need to beat Exeter.

There is hope gentlemen.......

Nearly there Pete, only chink is if Toulouse lose with bp then they are on 19. Then yee do need the BP.

Lets hope that Toulouse dont lose but get 2 bonus points then we could be both screwed.

What has to happen for both Leinster and Munster to get through?

Toulon beat MP and Toulouse beat Tigers. Then both of us could go through

BlueMuff wrote:Toulon beat MP and Toulouse beat Tigers. Then both of us could go through

As long as we both beat Racing and Exeter respectively.

Also if Montpellier get a LBP that will put them on 19 so we will then both need to get TBPs as their try tally is far ahead of ours.

Good team work their Blue

It is not impossible.

Needless to say I am going to be going for a Toulouse win and Toulon handsome win (of more than 7 points) of Montpellier and if that happens well then ladies and gentlemen we may just find 3 Irish teams in the knockout stages again, even if Munster and Leinster have to travel away to Quins, Toulon or Clermont (please not Clermont again!).

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Needless to say I am going to be going for a Toulouse win and Toulon handsome win (of more than 7 points) of Montpellier and if that happens well then ladies and gentlemen we may just find 3 Irish teams in the knockout stages again, even if Munster and Leinster have to travel away to Quins, Toulon or Clermont (please not Clermont again!).

Id love to go to Toulon.

I think it's a bit too much to expect Munster getting the TBP against Racing Metro. They look a bit suspect against powerful teams and lack they bite/killer blow that they had last season.

LeinsterFan4life wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Needless to say I am going to be going for a Toulouse win and Toulon handsome win (of more than 7 points) of Montpellier and if that happens well then ladies and gentlemen we may just find 3 Irish teams in the knockout stages again, even if Munster and Leinster have to travel away to Quins, Toulon or Clermont (please not Clermont again!).

Id love to go to Toulon.

From a rugby point of view or just to see the place like?

MrsP wrote:

LeinsterFan4life wrote:

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:Needless to say I am going to be going for a Toulouse win and Toulon handsome win (of more than 7 points) of Montpellier and if that happens well then ladies and gentlemen we may just find 3 Irish teams in the knockout stages again, even if Munster and Leinster have to travel away to Quins, Toulon or Clermont (please not Clermont again!).

Id love to go to Toulon.

From a rugby point of view or just to see the place like?

Both.

Morgannwg wrote:I think it's a bit too much to expect Munster getting the TBP against Racing Metro. They look a bit suspect against powerful teams and lack they bite/killer blow that they had last season.

Racing are out though now and will have little to no motivation for an away game and thus may rest their big guns....it is possible

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:

Morgannwg wrote:I think it's a bit too much to expect Munster getting the TBP against Racing Metro. They look a bit suspect against powerful teams and lack they bite/killer blow that they had last season.

Racing are out though now and will have little to no motivation for an away game and thus may rest their big guns....it is possible

they could send their stars out to give them gametime like montpelier did against us last year. Suppose it all depends on who they are playing in the top 14.

Possible then.

Racing Metro play away to Bordeaux-Begles who lie third from bottom in the Top 14,locked on 18 points with Agen who are second last,have won only three from fifteen starts.The game is scheduled for January 25th.Rm are on thirty-four points and lie in eight position. Any ones guess as to what team they will send out to meet Munster.Hopefully they will bring over a decent side and challenge the reds.

Looking at the games objectively, trying to predict rather than dream here...

Leicester vs Toulouse
I am predicting the Tigers to win this as Toulouse have not looked that great in the last few weeks and Tigers are at home. I would even say that the Noir et Rouge will fail to gain a LBP.

Montpellier vs Toulon
I think Toulon will go all guns blazing in to this one to insure a home QF and put Montpellier away but will ease off when the game is won granting Montpellier a LBP

Munster vs Racing
I think Munster will win this game but will fail to score 4 tries as the Racing scrum is relatively strong and that seems to be Munster's only attacking weapon in an otherwise confused and relatively ineffective twin game plan.

Exeter vs Leinster
This one I find the hardest to call. Exeter did well against a hugely depleted Leinster in Round 1 but with Leinster guys back and having scored TBH in their last 2 games, add to that the air of desperation and Leinster's mental strength (+ Joe's genius) I see (very hazily) Leinster getting a TBP win here.

7. Leinster (20 pts)
8. Montpellier (19 pts)

9. Toulouse (19pts)
10. Munster (19 pts)

Montpellier (15), Toulouse (14) and Munster (9) being separated by tries scored.

No sorry, you're dreaming.

I should qualify that by saying that Racing and the Scarlets will spring surprises.

Plus you're ignoring Northampton.

Ah crud! Was afraid that would happen!
What part is dream land?

Can Northampton still qualify realistically??

Also, scarlets have litte impact on 2 best runner up spots.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2013/0114/1224328804540.html

some of it seams a bit harsh on Scarlets

There were other stories from Saturday night, like the latest example of a Welsh side being some distance off the standard set by their national side.

Prompted question

It prompted a question for Scarlets coach, the 65-times capped Ireland flanker Simon Easterby: for all the talk of respecting this competition, doesn’t holding Welsh and Lions hooker Matthew Rees and centre Jonathan Davies in reserve indicate otherwise?

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:
Can Northampton still qualify realistically??

Can they fock. I've more chance of gettin me whole off Beyonce, than they have of 4 tries in Glasgow.