Murray - Fed Semi Final preview

by invisiblecoolers Wed 23 Jan 2013, 3:53 pm

First topic message reminder :

Murray Perspective :-

As the draw opened up nicely Murray didn't have to unleash any of his weapons in the first week of the tournament, while everybody expected his QF to be an easy st.sets not even the hardest of Murray fan would have imagined it would have been this easy, Murray unleashed his fury over a pity full Chardy for demonstrating his new improved forehand by series of winners from both wings, Murray was not even happy to let Chardy earn a point even on his own serve. Looked like he wanted a point to prove to French man who had his numbers last time around.

Strengths -
1]Improved Forehand, looked devastating against Chardy
2]Consistent First serve
3]Wheels, Murray hardly sweat inspite of running for every point, the intensity of running round the court could only be matched by Ferrer at the moment.
4]Belief , with the monkey of the back after USO win, Murray looks deadly to me.
5]Returns , right now arguably the best in the tour.

Weakness -
1]Second Serve, Chardy was just too bad to punish him on all occasions but even he did on many occasions, stand and deliver return
2]Focus drop, for some reason Murray drops focus in the mid match, leading 4-0 he drops focus to let his opponent comeback, serving for the match he get broken when Chardy himself has given up Murray comes with a double fault to gift the break to the opponent.
3]Nervousness, Murray need to overcome his nervousness against his boogeyman in slams.

Opportunities -
1]Double Back Hand - Arguably one of the best in the modern game, but for some reason its not at its best shape in this tournament, even several commentators pointed it out, down the line shots would work wonders.
2]Multiple GS champ - A title which he would really like to have and could inspire him to do better.
3]Ambition of being NO.1 - Murray clearly believes he could become no.1 in the future, what better time than now, a win here would boost his chances big time.

Threats -
1]Lack of tests - means Murray's actual weapons are untested in this tournament so far, its really hard to say how good it would be against Fed/Nole.
2]Fed still looks hungry
3]Not much practice at the night session.

Federer Perspective

Strength -
1]Hunger to compete - Fed no longer worried about results or records and playing pressure free tennis and loving his fights over young cubs.
2]Knows the opponent game - Fed exactly know what he needs to do to win a game let alone Match against Murray.
3]Serve - Arguably the best after Sampras, and undoubtedly the best for any player above 30 to played the game.

Weakness
1]Movement - Age is catching up and the movement is not as fluid as it used to be, while Tomic and Raonic exposed a bit Tsonga exposed it big time with flurry of winners both wings.
2]To the Backhand strategy - Murray has learned this trick early and has used to his strengths
3]Focus drop - Like Murray Fed's focus do drop in between matches, he is suddenly worried what his twin daughters doing outside watching his game.

Opportunities -
1]Absence of chief tormentor - Nadal's absence means Fed knows the title is in his racket and his to lose.
2]Aggressive pace - New aggressive pace of play gives opponent no time to breath let alone think a strategy when thinks do go planned, should use it wisely against Murray.
3]Nothing to prove mindset - pressure free Fed is ultra dangerous on court.

Threats
1]Stamina - Bit cooked after Tsonga match
2]Tough draw taking his toll.

Over all Murray in view starts Favorite by 70-30 margin, I like both players and hence this view coming from neutral perspective. Both have their strength but I guess the draw at some point should take its toll on the soon to be 32 year old. However given Fed's capability and the will to win he won't make it any easier for Murray, if for some reason Murray comes nervous and Fed brings his A-game he will cook him for the breakfast in st. sets.
To me its Murray's match to lose, confident young man at his prime against an old guard, prediction would love Fed to win but Murray to win easy.

by summerblues Fri 25 Jan 2013, 2:22 am

It Must Be Love wrote:If things get really tight tomorrow I might even say 'dead cert Federer will win' or 'I wonder what tactics Federer will play against Djokovic.'

by summerblues Fri 25 Jan 2013, 2:26 am

Tough to call, but I go with Fed (wishful thinking perhaps). Unfortunately for Fed, if he wants to have any chance in the final, he will need to not only win, but win relatively quickly. Another 5-setter, or even a draining 4-setter, would make it much harder in the final against Nole. Sadly, while I think Fed may be able to win, I do not see him winning easily Sad

.

by invisiblecoolers Fri 25 Jan 2013, 3:48 am

luciusmann wrote:I went with voting that Fed would win (on the other thread) but I am a Federer fan so that's not too surprising but I'm not so partial as to think Federer is a sure bet to beat Murray (he's not). I make Murray as the favourite, although not by much, but still a favourite. Murray is in his peak years and has reached the last 2 grand slam finals so he has shown consistent form. My doubt with Fed is despite all his successes last year is that he put in a meek performance in Rome and then to top that, a limp performance in RG, both against Djokovic but literally a month later, defeats the very same player at Wimbledon! Of course, the more sensible among us didn't think this was going to suddenly lead to Fed's dominance again. However, after Cinci, things start to go pear shaped for Fed, hence why if you got to choose between Fed or Murray, you would pick the player with the more consistent form, and Fed has no doubt played well, but consistent? Certainly not, he went from winning Wimbledon to losing in the Quarters @ the USO, which has been his second best slam. If the Fed of Wimbledon shows up, then Fed may win, but no way is he a heavy favourite and I'm more than happy to wager that it won't be a str8 sets win for Federer (if he wins) and probably won't be for Murray either.

Hopefully thats the case, wants a 5 set thriller , so I can get up early in the morning and still watch it.

by invisiblecoolers Fri 25 Jan 2013, 3:50 am

I guess V2 has gone for sleep early to wake up for the match in time. picard

by Guest Fri 25 Jan 2013, 7:50 am

[quote="MurrayHype"]Firstly, the original post is pretty decent and level-headed. However, some of the comments that follow aren’t. Let’s look at them and discover why.

Slight edge to Murray at the moment. I don't see that Federer is Murray's bogeyman, he has a positive overall head to head and beat hm soundly at the Olympics. And I don't see that the tournament is on Federer's racket, Djokovic is the favourite. – Henman Bill

At slam level, Federer is 3-0 up in matches, and Murray has taken just ONE set off him in all these matches. Clearly, going by FACTS that are relevant to this match, Federer has to be favourite by some margin, given that the last major meeting at slam level was only 2 slams ago and Federer won it in 4 sets. Using overall H2H simply isn’t relevant to the equation in any large amount when you consider the difference between the two in their slam matches. Players play their very best at the Slams and this is why Murray has had no answers to Federer at the slams (even Federer past his prime). I am not stating opinion here, I am stating what we can all see with our own eyes. Federer is favourite based on his current and past level at Slams against Murray. It isn’t slight edge to Murray, it is large edge to Federer. The Olympics is not a slam and Federer was knackered. It was the worst I have ever seen him on grass. Murray deserved his victory (he played well the whole tournament), but trying to equate that loss to anything meaningful at a Slam is a gross distortion. Federer is World Number 2, Wimbledon Champion and last season’s WTF finalist for a reason. Murray is WN3 for a reason.

Djoko is the favourite, but Fed always believed Nadal is the only guy who can actually stop him when he brings his A-game. invisiblecoolers

I agree, and that’s why in Federer’s absolute peak years (2006-7) only Nadal managed to beat him in a slam (and that was clay).

Murray lost 2 finals to Fed in slams when he wasn't mentally ready for it, and was inexperienced. His last won was much closer, and the roof may have been decisive.
The Olympics was on a par with a slam to many players, and at a similar venue, and Murray won that. – Henman Bill

This is a classic example of making bad excuses. Ricky Hatton mentioned this during his retirement speech after his last match, that you can always find an excuse. It is easy. What I find disgusting about this comment is that it not only makes excuses but demeans the career of one of the greatest players. In just this one post alone you have washed away all Federer’s wins as being lost by Andy rather than being won by Federer. It’s just so damn disrespectful and false. And the roof is a classic- Let us look logically at that statement. Let’s suppose the roof really was a factor in Murray’s loss… are you saying that this one thing was so massive that it made Andy lose in 4 sets and against a Federer past his prime and aged 30+? I would have thought that Murray wouldn’t need conditions so perfect to beat an old man. But I am diverting here. The Olympics is not a slam and I do not see any quotes from these “many players” to corroborate your claim that they believe the Olympics is on par with a Slam. There may be one or two players who rate it highly, but where is this “The Olympics was on a par with a Slam to many players” coming from? Where is your evidence of this statement? I suspect you have simply made it up. Even by ranking points it is considered less than a Masters 1000 and WTF. These are facts, not conjecture.

If there is more wind on the court then obviously Murray is favourite but if not federer should be able to outfox the lanky coyote. - Josiah Maiestas

Calling Murray a lanky Coyote isn’t very nice either, and Federer is not the same player as Djok (who I agree has a big weakness in windy conditions, but whose fault is that? It isn't Murray's, I can assure you).

Murray has been averaging 65% on first serves in which is impressive.
Murray has to jump on the Federer second serve. Tsonga let him off on many second serves. - legendkillarV2

The average serving percentage is largely irrelevant because it is affected by opposition, and Murray has had a much easier draw. When he plays Federer he will have to come outside of his comfort zone and that’s where the percentage takes a hit. Then people claim “Murray didn’t play his best” instead of “Federer didn’t let him play his best”. Big difference. Pressure and the ability of your opponent affects these stats and that’s why they are often unreliable when placed in an argument like this. Context is everything.

Also, I would argue that Murray’s main weakness is his own second serve (much weaker than Federer’s). This seems to be where Federer demolishes Murray at Slam level (demolish isn’t unfair is it, given Murray is 1-9 in sets at Slam level?).

[quote]I predict a sombre day for the RF camp - a three set procession for the muscle of Murray, with his added mental strength from the US Open. I don´t think RF will get into Murray´s head, where he needs to be to be able to win.

Sometimes it is possible to play your very best and for it not to be good enough. The way some here are going on, it’s like Murray is in the same class as Federer. He isn’t. Not close. That’s why one is approaching the tail-end of his career with one Slam and the other is already in his tail-end, winning Wimbledon and has 17 Slams. There is no disgrace to Murray to lose to Federer, but there is a great disgrace to suppose that the gap in talent is some illusion. Accept it that Murray is not as good as Federer, and is likely to lose the match. That’s based on their Slam match-up, last Slam match, and overall Slam statistics against one another. Again, it not based on excuses about roofs or fitness or weather or what you want to be true.

To predict 3 sets win for Murray based on available evidence is flat-out illogical. His “Mental strength” being greater is also opinion since we haven’t actually seen Murray challenged in this Slam yet and that’s where temperament is important. I’d wager that the same mental issues (keeping cool- not shouting all the time) will surface the second he is placed under some pressure and loses a set or a few important games. Emotional issues like Murray’s mental fragility don’t go away because of one major win, they are systemic of an underlying psychological problem which has to be addressed properly. You’ll see. It is easy to play great tennis and laugh and joke when you are beating opponents easily. I would wager that it is your camp that will be most disappointed tomorrow.

Yes Muzza forehand is ripping through the opponents, credit to Lendll if he really worked on it to help Murray improve it. invisiblecoolers

Again, we have not seen Murray up-against-it to determine how good his forehand will hold up under pressure.

I more or less see the same way, its difficult to see outside Muzza for the finals, but you never know with Fed. 70-30 in Murray's favour. invisiblecoolers

Where does that logic come from, especially given your original post? 70-30 based on what? The fact he has taken one set from Federer in a Slam? That Federer didn’t win the last Slam? Where is that crazy-ass figure coming from? I just can’t see how you arrive at such an illogical figure based on the current facts.

OK here's a little reminder for everyone out there who is of the opinion Murray will easily beat Federer.

Murray hasn't beaten Federer in any of the three previous meetings and has so far taken just one set.

I'll stick my neck out on the line a little bit here then. He'll probably get at least one more set, maybe two and potentially might beat Federer. But beat him easily? Doubtful. – Newballs

Logic, at last.

If Murray plays like he did in Shanghai v the Fed then Roger will be in deep trouble. I don't think anyone's ever assaulted Federer's second serve like Andy did that day. For me, the serve is the critical aspect of the match. Murray's returns are normally good enough to get one break per set so if he keeps his first serve percentage 65% + he has a good chance. It will not be an easy match for either player. I just hope it's not raining - The Special Juan

Shanghai is not a Slam, it has no bearing on this match, and if Federer brings his best, Murray WILL lose… it’s that simple, because Federer won’t allow Murray to play near his best or in his own comfort zone. Equally, if Murray brings his best and Federer doesn’t, the same is true. But all evidence we have suggests that Federer is clear favourite because he has beaten Murray 3-0 in Slams where he brings his best form. And the 65% figure is again missing the whole point of how Tennis works. If Federer brings his best form, Murray won’t be able to reach that figure, he will be under pressure. Not to mention the second serves will need to be high as well. Quoting these fantastic figures sounds great until you realise the match-up and opponent is a critical factor.

I'll go with Murray but that's probably heart over head!! - The Special Juan

No “probably” about it.

only Wimbledon last year was close-ish. Danny_1982

I wouldn’t say it was "close-ish". Also, again you mention this 65% stat. I really hope some of you don’t come back tomorrow with excuses like “Murray didn’t play his best… what a shame.” I hope you understand that the stat is dependent on how well his opponent plays and not just how well he plays. Do not be surprised to see that percentage drop against Federer. Pressure, the knowledge he has never won a Slam match against Federer, the match-up and the recent history show that it is unlikely Murray will be able to win this match or play his best level. UNLIKELY. Not impossible (Yes I know some of you have a habit of coming back to posts so you can rub things in as if a person has implied something they haven’t).

If you are expecting or hoping for a close match tomorrow, either way, don’t be disappointed or surprised when it does not materialise.

Cant see Murray losing to Federer now that Federer has had that long 5 setter V Tsonga in the previous round – gboycottnut

It was hardly like the match was a leg-killer. Unlike some players, Tsonga and Federer don’t waste time; they play attacking Tennis, not knee-killing-defensive-moon-balling. No excuses from EITHER side tomorrow, please. We’ve already had the roof blamed for Murray’s last Slam loss.

Looking back I've actually been impressed by Murray so far

He did just what he needed to in the early rounds - what's the point of showing your best stuff and making Fed aware, when there is no need? …… However, I was actually impressed by how he handled Chardy, who came back at him all guns blazing. Andy's response? To play his best stuff since the US Open banbrotam

Are you saying Murray is deliberately holding back so that Roger doesn’t know how good he can play? You really think players do that in a match? I play Tennis and I can tell you that isn’t the winning mindset of any player and it would be ridiculous to even think about doing that. You made it up from your own imagination. As for the second response, it is easy for a player to play great when not under pressure. 2-0 sets up and looking at 3. That’s not where you are tested. Tomorrow Murray will be tested, and I believe he will be beaten in 3-4 sets (again).

Oh like Tsonga was in his prime and Fed past it but Fed won? Let us also remember this is Fed's first tournament of the season unlike the rest of the players so I won't buy the fitness thing until I see Fed cramping up on court which I am yet to see. - CaledonianCraig

Your post adequately answered the ridiculous post preceding.

Was the roof really decisive? It was 1 set all and 2-2 when the rain came and roof was closed. - FedsFan

No, as you’ve worked out, when logic is applied the roof statement comes off as nothing but a bad excuse.

This match is Fed's to lose. FedsFan

That’s not a good statement either, though. Federer is not in his prime anymore, this isn’t 2006-7 and he can lose if Murray plays his best and Federer does not. It can happen. It is just unlikely. I think it would be sad to see Federer lose because I like to see the man with the hardest draw/best Tennis at a tournament win, but life isn’t always fair.

I don't think either set of fans can really have excuses for the outcome of this match – Silver

Agreed. Let’s not hear any nonsense about weather or roofs or fitness. Fitness is a part of tennis, weather is a part of tennis, indoor is a part of Tennis (where applicable).

There is possibly more pressure on Federer than on Murray, as if Federer loses it could well be the end of the road for him as far as being a serious contender for winning a major title what with Nadal coming back and with guys like Murray and Djokovic being younger than Federer and in their tennis playing prime years. - gboycottnut

Are you seriously suggesting that a man who is current Wimbledon Champion, WN2 and in the Semi-Final of the current Slam (with the hardest draw) is finished if he loses one match? Where is the logic here? I remember this nonsense when people said he wouldn’t win another slam ever again last year (yet his form suggested it wouldn’t be long until he did), and guess what happened? I can’t understand how a statement like this is even relayed by a synapse…

They are my thoughts on this.

Have to say this is the biggest load of fanboyism I have ever read and I have sat through Nadal threads to say the least.

Every fact to support a Murray victory or even lean towards him going into this match is deemed 'irrelevant'

Any fact that supports the Federer cause really is the worst case of arss kissing ever.

Please don't leave, this forum needs more fanboys Very Happy

by **laverfan** Fri 25 Jan 2013, 8:14 am

to Federer and Murray (or Furray or Murderer, take your pick). Run

by **laverfan** Fri 25 Jan 2013, 8:18 am

http://www.australianopen.com/en_AU/news/articles/2013-01-25/201301251359100917143.html

by invisiblecoolers Fri 25 Jan 2013, 9:32 am

laverfan wrote: to Federer and Murray (or Furray or Murderer, take your pick).

Muzzza wins 1st set comfortably.

by Silver Fri 25 Jan 2013, 1:39 pm

Ahoy folks! I already posted in the match thread but well done to Murray, I'm slightly disappointed but also vaguely pleased that he won - certainly the better player overall on the day. Craig et al, you must be pleased with your man's performance?

Congratulations Smile

by invisiblecoolers Fri 25 Jan 2013, 4:36 pm

good match, congrats Murray.

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