Who is for the Drop?

Folks,

Wrong thread if you want to read about the possibility of Champions League football next season. This is all about the basement end where the muck and bullets are flying and all that matters is survival.

Interested in views as to who is going down. We can follow (changing) predictions and developments over the remainder of the season.

I'll start things off with my teams for the Drop:

* QPR - already some way behind and I just don't see them scoring the goals they desperately need. I'm also not convinced by Cesar between the sticks - some good saves but too Tefloneque (ie non stick) for my liking.

* Reading - don't see enough leaders on the pitch. Disastrous result yesterday as well.

* Southampton - managerial and playing inexperience may cost them dear allowing others to scramble free.

My three at this stage are:

QPR- 6 points a drift from Reading and 7 from safety, IMO there's not enough character in the squad to handle the pressure of a relegation dog fight. Too many players on too much money and not enough with a 'up for a fight' mentality.

Reading- Struggle in front of goal and always look likely to concede, that's a relegation cocktail.

Aston Villa- Lambert tried to change to much to soon, he chose to go with young players that were willing to run through brick walls which is great if you have the right balance of experienced heads to add some quality where it counts, which villa just don't have.

QPR are gone. Nothing more needs to be said.

Reading just won't have enough in the end, a valiant effort but not enough experience and poor in defence.

The third one is tough, but I think it's going to be Aston Villa. Like Reading, not enough experience of the top flight or this sort of situation, and will probably go. Wigan still well and truly in the mix though. The rest will be ok though.

I think the biggest problem for Reading is that they have had their good spell and it wasn't enough to get them a bit of breathing space. I'd like to see them stop up but I just can't see it.

I find myself hovering around saying Wigan. Every year you believe they will go down and then at the last minute they get out of it and yesterdays win would suggest that is quite possible again.

So Villa would be the obvious other and I wouldn't mind seeing them go if truth be told. It was the game the other week where people started walking out after twenty minutes that did it for me.

As a wild card I would say West Ham. I just can't see them getting many more points but then it's relying on the others to get their acts together because of the gap.

I really hope it goes down to the last day though. It's such a dull conclussion if not.

QPR, Reading and ...

Either Villa or Wigan.

Southampton will be fine. Sadly.

As many have alluded too QPR are all but gone now. Only 19 goals all season, and you can't see where the next one is coming from really. Terribly run club.

The final 2 spots come down to 4, potentially 5 teams for me. The 4 are Villa, Wigan, Reading and Southampton, with potentially West Ham sliding in there (although I think there home form will just keep them up)

Reading look to be struggling to keep there heads above water for me. Not picking up enough away from home, and even with some amazing comeback wins (WBA home most notably) they are still down in the dumps.

Villa and Wigan both neck and neck at the moment, and you have to say that the fixture at the DW final day of the season is looking like it might be a winner takes all clash between the two! What a humdinger that would be!

Saints should just have enough, but they do concede a lot, which could always cause trouble

My 3 at the moment are QPR, Wigan and Reading

QPR for reasons given.

Reading, not enough goals, don't know how to keep them out.

Wigan, there lucks got to run out sometime, seem more fragile then at other times. Other than Kone don't score enough.

QPR, Reading and 1 from Wigan, Villa and saints.

We have Man City home next monday, then 2 massive games away to Reading and home to QPR.

QPR, my team but I'm afraid we're just poo. Proverbial couldn't score in a brothel and they aren't a team, just a mere collective of mercenaries with the new super wages annoying the earlier signings on silly wages annoying the few old hands on 20 quid a week. No harmony. Unfortunately, the few who do seem to care aren't good enough.

Reading - but I think they'll be back, they have a touch of the baggies. Yo-yoing for a while as they build steadily and within their means.

Villa or Wigan - Villa seem to have been in a tail spin for years tbh, worst goal diff and not enough experience versus youth IMO to steady the ship. Wigan, possibly one houdini too many for senor Martinez, but this is when they seem to turn up to play each year. Tough call between the two, coin toss job I think.

Southampton to stay up, purely because the above are worse!

QPR
Reading
Southampton

spencerclarke wrote:I think the biggest problem for Reading is that they have had their good spell and it wasn't enough to get them a bit of breathing space.

Spencer - very astute comment about Reading. They just can't seem to get off the bottom rungs of the ladder. All so far reckon they're doomed.

I also picked up that you and Olly thought West Ham had an outside chance of being for the drop. Well, Bale's 90th minute wonder goal certainly hasn't done them any favours.

guildfordbat wrote:

spencerclarke wrote:I think the biggest problem for Reading is that they have had their good spell and it wasn't enough to get them a bit of breathing space.

Spencer - very astute comment about Reading. They just can't seem to get off the bottom rungs of the ladder. All so far reckon they're doomed.

I also picked up that you and Olly thought West Ham had an outside chance of being for the drop. Well, Bale's 90th minute wonder goal certainly hasn't done them any favours.

They also got very lucky in that good spell.

QPR, Villa, Southampton.

Hopefully

guildfordbat wrote:

spencerclarke wrote:I think the biggest problem for Reading is that they have had their good spell and it wasn't enough to get them a bit of breathing space.

Spencer - very astute comment about Reading. They just can't seem to get off the bottom rungs of the ladder. All so far reckon they're doomed.

I also picked up that you and Olly thought West Ham had an outside chance of being for the drop. Well, Bale's 90th minute wonder goal certainly hasn't done them any favours.

Must say Guildford with 80 minutes on the clock at Carrow Road it was looking like I'd have had to include Norwich in the same category as West Ham. Luckily that win gives us breathing space, enough for us to be ok I hope

We've (West Ham) been fighting the drop for a lot longer than the media have been paying attention to it, Bale's goal last night was gutting but it was a result we all expected.

Our next five: Stoke (A) Chelsea (A) WBA (H) Liverpool (A) Southampton (A). We've only scored 8 goals on the road this year, Stoke is one of the hardest places to go, Chelsea are obviously a top side and I dont think we've won at Liverpool for about 40 years. I dont think the points total will be really high this year, but its still gonna be tight. Reading at home last game of the season, I hope its not important

Olly wrote:

Must say Guildford with 80 minutes on the clock at Carrow Road it was looking like I'd have had to include Norwich in the same category as West Ham. Luckily that win gives us breathing space, enough for us to be ok I hope

Olly - yes, that win puts a much more positive outlook on your survival chances. After 80 minutes it did seem you were in danger of being sucked in. Not safe yet but you're now some way off the relegation places. I agree with Chris that the points total for those dropping this season won't be too high which, if correct, is good news for you having already passed the 30 mark.

After West Ham's win today ( ) I am cautiously optimistic that we might just scrape enough points to stay up.

My predictions are QPR, Reading, and Southampton. But as others have said, could easily be Aston Villa and Wigan.

Also, after today's results what about Stoke. Then there's Fulham. Or Norwich, Or Sunderland....

It does seem strange that Reading had some many remarkable results but still look almost doomed.

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:After West Ham's win today ( ) I am cautiously optimistic that we might just scrape enough points to stay up.

My predictions are QPR, Reading, and Southampton. But as others have said, could easily be Aston Villa and Wigan.

Also, after today's results what about Stoke. Then there's Fulham. Or Norwich, Or Sunderland....

It does seem strange that Reading had some many remarkable results but still look almost doomed.

We'll be alright Corporal. We'll get the 6 points needed (to get to 38) out of our remaining fixtures (got some very winnable home games)

Very bad result for Southampton yesterday. They stay squarely in the mix and have given QPR a glimmer of a lifeline.

Agree with Hughton that Norwich's season won't be determined by how (badly) they did at Old Trafford. I do note though that Olly has changed his minimum points total for survival from 40 to 38 - perhaps just as well! You should be ok, Olly, but I suspect you'll still be looking over your shoulder for a while. You won't be alone though - the likes of West Ham, Newcastle and Sunderland are in a similar position.

Still think QPR have too much to do and that Reading have almost run out of gas and belief. A few more results like yesterday and my prediction of Southampton to join them will be looking strong. However, Villa and Wigan are in an even more perilous state today ....

I'd be confident of getting 6-8 points from our 5 remaining home games which are Southampton, Reading, Swansea, West Brom and Aston Villa.

It'll be our home form that carries us over the line. We suck away haha

there are only 6 teams in it for me

the likes of fulham and newcastle have too much quality to go down

and i think norwich, stoke and west ham are good enough at home to survive. leaving... sunderland, southampton, wigan, villa, reading and qpr

if i had to say now, id pick southampton, reading and villa

at the start of the season my picks were villa and reading. i thought southampton would survive with lambert and llalana as well as the addition of ramires. cork and schneiderlin are also good players, but atm they remain in danger.

Like I said in the Prem Discussion Thread, next weekend is massive.

Norwich (32) v Southampton (27)
QPR (20) v Sunderland (30)
Reading (23) v Aston Villa (24)
Newcastle (30) v Stoke (33)

Six pointer saturday!

Manchester City fans should be happy, yesterdays results have confirmed they are now safe from relegation

Villa, Reading and then Saints or QPR. Would quite like to see Sunderland and Stoke drift into it but would take a lot of bad results.

QPR are still going down for me. Only 3 wins all season, 20 points from 28 games. They're gonna need 15 points from the final 10 games at least.

Yesterday will give them renewed hope. But they're going to need to more than double there win tally for the whole season in 10 games. I'd be pretty confident that ain't gonna happen

Their fixtures are favourable.

Sunderland (H) Villa (A) Fulham (A) Wigan (H) Everton (A) Stoke (H) Reading (A)

Then the last month is a bit of a b*tch: Arsenal (H) Newcastle (H) Liverpool (A)

They have goals now. Win next week and the gap could be a lot of them and they still have Villa Wigan and Reading to play. Stoke at home is winnable too. Beat Sunderland Wigan Stoke and Toon at home and thats 32 points. A win or draws away at Villa and Reading and that throws a lot on its head.

I think of our Great Escape year with Tevez scoring at Old Trafford, winning seven of the last nine. Momentum, spirit and a goal threat keeps you up.

They've only scored 21 goals all season. A couple against a renowned dodgy Southampton defence doesn't suddenly mean they have goals now.

chris.wilkerson13 wrote:
I think of our Great Escape year with Tevez scoring at Old Trafford, winning seven of the last nine. Momentum, spirit and a goal threat keeps you up.

Chris. Great memories - started I recall with away victory against Everton.

That's why I nominated Neil Warnock for v2 room 101 the other day!

Two goals at Southampton doesnt, but Remy does. Guy is quality. And thats two goals against a team around them, Wigan Villa and Reading dont inspire much defensively either.

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:

Chris. Great memories - started I recall with away victory against Everton.

That's why I nominated Neil Warnock for v2 room 101 the other day!

Hes found his perfect club with Leeds! What a run that was, even losing to Chelsea was an amazing match and the atmosphere was amazing. I hadnt celebrated a goal as fervently as I did that Tevez winner at OT for a long time, but Vaz Te at Wembley topped it, I nearly fell down the stand.

guildfordbat wrote:
* QPR - .... I'm also not convinced by Cesar between the sticks - some good saves but too Tefloneque (ie non stick) for my liking.
.

As no one else is going to, I thought I'd flag my opening comment about Cesar and congratulate myself on it! More seriously, QPR were fortunate that his howler yesterday wasn't costly.
Superb save later on from sub keeper Green to keep out Fonte's bullet header. Assuming Cesar is fit, a decision for 'Arry as to who starts next time ....

cesar, no question laugh out loud

Rob Green criminally underrated by England watchers again? Oh for Rob Green this season at West Ham, Jussi Jaaskelainen is not good for my heart. Hes there with a long list of keepers in the Premier League he make the odd mistake, but Green has the history with England so gets judged on it every time. Probably the only keeper I would say who has been pretty faultless in that sense in the Prem this season has been Lloris, and Lloris is a fantastic keeper.

Cesar would be the second best Ive seen in the Prem this year btw, probably only De Gea is a pure out n out better shot stopper

I have felt that Greeno has always been a very good shot stopper, but his frailities lie in his command of the area, more specifically crosses.

Bit flappy

Most eyes today on Villa v QPR at the basement end ....

i have a sneaky feeling that QPR will stay up....#callmecrazy

Agreed, Remy to fire QPR to safety

i think alot of people think qpr will stay up

They havent got a bad side -squad, they just had an awful manager for the first part of the season..

They're still going down imo.

I think today will go a long way to deciding there fate. Win today and I'll have to reconsider. Lose and its gonna take something monumental

Olly - I'm with you about QPR. I suspect their bubble will be short lived and could burst against Villa today.

Meanwhile, Wigan could certainly do with getting something at home to Newcastle tomorrow ....

Thing is for all the media hype about them last weekend they started 4 points off safety and ended 4 points off.

If Villa win, QPR and Reading get a little isolated at the bottom as will Wigan until they play

Big result for Villa - and looking very bleak for 'arry.

Corporalhumblebucket wrote:Big result for Villa - and looking very bleak for 'arry.

Definitely.

Fine result for Southampton as well.

A loss today for Wigan and they'll be almost as much in the mire as QPR and Reading ....

Indeed Guildford especially with there game in hand being Man City away

So Wigan picked up a crucial win, albeit with a huge hand from the officials.

At the end of this weekend it looks bleak for Reading and QPR, with others winning and them losing.

Villa looking good, with some momentum. Wigan too. Sunderland look to have a bit of trouble on there hands, with there run in

I can see West ham dropping back, it is crazy when you look at Wigan - you have to go up to Arsenal in the table to find a team that has won more away games!

Olly wrote:
Sunderland look to have a bit of trouble on there hands, with there run in

Not too disappointed by that. Never find Martin O'Neill as clever as he seems to think he is.

guildfordbat wrote:

Olly wrote:
Sunderland look to have a bit of trouble on there hands, with there run in

Not too disappointed by that. Never find Martin O'Neill as clever as he seems to think he is.

TBF other people find him clever.

I think he is a good and potentially great manager but he has spunked money on some rubbish lately - Adam Johnson being the biggest culprit - honestly only fools thought he was ever good.

If Wigan win their game in hand, I think everybody below 11th place is within 4 points off the relegation zone which is crazy. I think all of them will be anxiously looking over their shoulders because it only takes a couple of poor results and they will drop like a sack of bricks.

Crimey wrote:If Wigan win their game in hand, I think everybody below 11th place is within 4 points off the relegation zone which is crazy. I think all of them will be anxiously looking over their shoulders because it only takes a couple of poor results and they will drop like a sack of bricks.

The relegation battle is going to be incredibly exciting again, the only benefit of dropping standards in the league imo.

The three that are down there now will drop. Wigan can't keep getting out of jail.

Looking very very bleak for Reading and QPR. Pretty much as good as gone barring some spectacular collapse from someone