Can Ireland beat France?

First topic message reminder :

With France having lost three games in a row (Italy, Wales, England), they are now on the road to face Ireland.

One side of the argument suggests that France are "due a win" while the other says that they are on the ropes and a new look Irish side can add to their misery.

Can Ireland beat this French team?

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:
Anyway, you I suspect are a Golden Generation fan... I think it was a myth driven by better coaching than we have now.

All I'll say is that a team without Paul O'Connell isn't as good as a team with Paul O'Connell. No amount of coaching will turn Keith Earls, Darren Cave or Fergus McFadden or whoever else into Brian O'Driscoll.

Absolutely... Paul O'Connell would be welcome back soon as possible with open arms. But Paul O'Connell won't be winning us games on his own either, any more than O'Driscoll can perform those tricks anymore either. So, the reality is, the 'special' players will not pop up on demand...you have to coach 'normal' players sufficiently to unearth the new 'special' players in a changing rugby world. A tougher world with smaller margins all round. Coaching is the key. Sustained top level concentrated coaching... learning from constant coaching errors.

Apart from the 2nd half of the Welsh game, Ireland hasn't really had to defend so I don't know why you think that Ireland spend too much time defending.

For instance against France:

Ireland Tackles: 91/12*. France tackles 87/10.
Ireland kicks from hand: 35. France kicks from hand: 39.

Against England:
Ireland tackles 71/3. England: 118/13
Ireland kicks: 32. England: 40.

Against Scotland:
Ireland tackles:42/4. Scotland 154/17.
Ireland kicks: 17. Scotland: 23.

Looks like we have taken fewer kicks and made less tackles than any of the teams we have played against this 6Ns with the exception of the 2nd half against Wales.

Ireland tackles: 200/22. Wales 91/9.
Ireland kicks: 24. Wales 15.

*missed tackles.

I don't know Fly. I don't totally disagree but do you have any evidence for your assertion that we spend more time focusing on defence in training?

One thing I would say is we have a specialist defence coach in charge of our attack which points to why we are limited there. It looks great on Les Kiss CV, not so good for the team though.

Kicking the ball can be the right option as it was on Saturday and against England. It's just we were gash at it against the English and on Saturday we took off the guy who was doing most of it.

We didn't win the Scottish game despite having all the ball and making all the running so that doesn't really stack up with the 'players doing too much defending' argument.

Ideally speaking I agree that we need to hold onto the ball more and back ourselves ball in hand but until we get an attacking strategy we can buy into it is difficult. I also don't think our players are poorly conditioned. We are and have been over reliant on certain guys whereas the English, French and kiwis actually use their bench but at the minute that's where we a through injury and lack of planning.

Our backrow have played a lot of rugby with minimal rotation this tournament. Our second rows were both injury doubts going into the game, Best and Ross have ridiculous gametime with the latter specifically not renowned for his fitness anyway. Our backup lock is 35 odd so isn't in s physical peak, we didn't use any of our front row subs until we absolutely had to (I don't blame kidney overly here) and we left our most physically impressive forward sub on the bench until 5mins were left.

They all contributed to the drop off in intensity against France. I think (as it has ever been) we are far too reliant on our starters and we overwork them

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:
Anyway, you I suspect are a Golden Generation fan... I think it was a myth driven by better coaching than we have now.

All I'll say is that a team without Paul O'Connell isn't as good as a team with Paul O'Connell. No amount of coaching will turn Keith Earls, Darren Cave or Fergus McFadden or whoever else into Brian O'Driscoll.

Absolutely... Paul O'Connell would be welcome back soon as possible with open arms. But Paul O'Connell won't be winning us games on his own either, any more than O'Driscoll can perform those tricks anymore either. So, the reality is, the 'special' players will not pop up on demand...you have to coach 'normal' players sufficiently to unearth the new 'special' players in a changing rugby world. A tougher world with smaller margins all round. Coaching is the key. Sustained top level concentrated coaching... learning from constant coaching errors.

I don't expect Paul O'Connell or Brian O'Driscoll to do it on their own - but having a few players like them are generally the difference between victory & defeat. Look at the way NZ performs with and without Dan Carter in control or how much they want to hold onto Richie McCaw for the next world cup. Special players are special players. We don't have anyone in the same league at the moment when they were at the height of their power a few years ago when the "golden generation' was generally talked about. Some of the present players may be slightly better than the previous players or even better (Healy is way better than Horan ever was), but I can't see any exceptional players* coming through to fill their shoes.

*Henderson maybe if he doesn't get injured.

Sin é wrote:Apart from the 2nd half of the Welsh game, Ireland hasn't really had to defend so I don't know why you think that Ireland spend too much time defending.

For instance against France:

Ireland Tackles: 91/12*. France tackles 87/10.
Ireland kicks from hand: 35. France kicks from hand: 39.

Against England:
Ireland tackles 71/3. England: 118/13
Ireland kicks: 32. England: 40.

Against Scotland:
Ireland tackles:42/4. Scotland 154/17.
Ireland kicks: 17. Scotland: 23.

Looks like we have taken fewer kicks and made less tackles than any of the teams we have played against this 6Ns with the exception of the 2nd half against Wales.

Ireland tackles: 200/22. Wales 91/9.
Ireland kicks: 24. Wales 15.

*missed tackles.

We've been doing something Sin é...and it hasn't been attacking. I'll look at the games with my eyes...and you look at them with the stats and figures rebounds.

We've been spending 80 minutes doing something..and most of it isn't called attacking, even with possession.

We play a hard impact physical game, we invite that game onto ourselves week in and week out, no matter what the opposition is. And we don't have the players on the field or in depth to sustain that madness. We can't attack because the plan isn't there... there is no resolute attacking plan that I can see that would take away physcial impact pressure from players that need more of those periods in a game to get through 80 minutes.

Standulstermen wrote:I don't know Fly. I don't totally disagree but do you have any evidence for your assertion that we spend more time focusing on defence in training?

I didn't say I had evidence Stand, I said I'd be of the opinion that it is so given the evidence of what I see on the field everytime Ireland plays.

They seem to have a period where they try to do some of the limited attacking tactics they've probably worked on during the week...but when that period is over...it's over. Nothing then seems to be there creatively.

It's like all the moves learned have been used up so let's get back to the bulk of what Irish sides do; defending or running directly into contact to distribute slow ball left and right as impacts continue over and over...with scant attention to offloading anything wisely to save on some of the impact/tiring work that goes on.

It just looks a darned wasted plan for wasting energy in my book. I always look at it like a physics problem - with finite energy expended within a finite space of time. We're losing the logic everytime we play the irish way.

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:Apart from the 2nd half of the Welsh game, Ireland hasn't really had to defend so I don't know why you think that Ireland spend too much time defending.

For instance against France:

Ireland Tackles: 91/12*. France tackles 87/10.
Ireland kicks from hand: 35. France kicks from hand: 39.

Against England:
Ireland tackles 71/3. England: 118/13
Ireland kicks: 32. England: 40.

Against Scotland:
Ireland tackles:42/4. Scotland 154/17.
Ireland kicks: 17. Scotland: 23.

Looks like we have taken fewer kicks and made less tackles than any of the teams we have played against this 6Ns with the exception of the 2nd half against Wales.

Ireland tackles: 200/22. Wales 91/9.
Ireland kicks: 24. Wales 15.

*missed tackles.

We've been doing something Sin é...and it hasn't been attacking. I'll look at the games with my eyes...and you look at them with the stats and figures rebounds.

We've been spending 80 minutes doing something..and most of it isn't called attacking, even with possession.

We play a hard impact physical game, we invite that game onto ourselves week in and week out, no matter what the opposition is. And we don't have the players on the field or in depth to sustain that madness. We can't attack because the plan isn't there... there is no resolute attacking plan that I can see that would take away physcial impact pressure from players that need more of those periods in a game to get through 80 minutes.

I don't need for you to (wrongly) tell me what I do. I just use the stats to back up what I see. It was fairly obvious that Ireland defended a lot in the 2nd half of the Welsh game and it was fairly obvious that Scotland defended a lot when they played us. If you are making tackles, you are defending against an attack. Simple.

Some players are better attackers than others though - Luke Marshall is a better attacker than D'Arcy, but I'd say Tommy Bowe is a better attacker than McFadden.

SecretFly wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:I don't know Fly. I don't totally disagree but do you have any evidence for your assertion that we spend more time focusing on defence in training?

I didn't say I had evidence Stand, I said I'd be of the opinion that it is so given the evidence of what I see on the field everytime Ireland plays.

They seem to have a period where they try to do some of the limited attacking tactics they've probably worked on during the week...but when that period is over...it's over. Nothing then seems to be there creatively.

It's like all the moves learned have been used up so let's get back to the bulk of what Irish sides do; defending or running directly into contact to distribute slow ball left and right as impacts continue over and over...with scant attention to offloading anything wisely to save on some of the impact/tiring work that goes on.

It just looks a darned wasted plan for wasting energy in my book. I always look at it like a physics problem - with finite energy expended within a finite space of time. We're losing the logic everytime we play the irish way.

What has happened though on a lot of Ireland's attacks is that someone knocks-on, drops a pass, makes a forward pass etc. All down to skill levels.

Sin é wrote:

I don't need for you to (wrongly) tell me what I do. I just use the stats to back up what I see. It was fairly obvious that Ireland defended a lot in the 2nd half of the Welsh game and it was fairly obvious that Scotland defended a lot when they played us. If you are making tackles, you are defending against an attack. Simple.

You throw stats at me to suggest my eyes are deceiving me and you'll get that stat line back at you each and every time Sin é. I said if you throw stats at me to support your 'views' by all means keep going. I'll continue to watch games with my eyes, I'll continue to see the ravages of Ireland's gameplan and how it affects player fatigue during a game...and I'll continue to see that many of our players don't suit the game design. Keep quoting stats and I'll keep reminding you I use my eyes and memory of results and performances that continue to knock us down into the lower top ten rankings.

Sin é wrote:

What has happened though on a lot of Ireland's attacks is that someone knocks-on, drops a pass, makes a forward pass etc. All down to skill levels.

...plus not being coached enough continuously to keep skills honed. In Ireland camp handling skills fall away. Back at Provincials , handling skills improve again. Question - why?

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

I don't need for you to (wrongly) tell me what I do. I just use the stats to back up what I see. It was fairly obvious that Ireland defended a lot in the 2nd half of the Welsh game and it was fairly obvious that Scotland defended a lot when they played us. If you are making tackles, you are defending against an attack. Simple.

You throw stats at me to suggest my eyes are deceiving me and you'll get that stat line back at you each and every time Sin é. I said if you throw stats at me to support your 'views' by all means keep going. I'll continue to watch games with my eyes, I'll continue to see the ravages of Ireland's gameplan and how it affects player fatigue during a game...and I'll continue to see that many of our players don't suit the game design. Keep quoting stats and I'll keep reminding you I use my eyes and memory of results and performances that continue to knock us down into the lower top ten rankings.

Funny all the dropped balls, forward passes, knockons seem to have escaped your notice. That implies to me that you made your mind up beforehand and you only saw what you wanted to see. Thats why coaches etc. use stats - to confirm what they do see.

Sin é wrote:

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

I don't need for you to (wrongly) tell me what I do. I just use the stats to back up what I see. It was fairly obvious that Ireland defended a lot in the 2nd half of the Welsh game and it was fairly obvious that Scotland defended a lot when they played us. If you are making tackles, you are defending against an attack. Simple.

You throw stats at me to suggest my eyes are deceiving me and you'll get that stat line back at you each and every time Sin é. I said if you throw stats at me to support your 'views' by all means keep going. I'll continue to watch games with my eyes, I'll continue to see the ravages of Ireland's gameplan and how it affects player fatigue during a game...and I'll continue to see that many of our players don't suit the game design. Keep quoting stats and I'll keep reminding you I use my eyes and memory of results and performances that continue to knock us down into the lower top ten rankings.

Funny all the dropped balls, forward passes, knockons seem to have escaped your notice. That implies to me that you made your mind up beforehand and you only saw what you wanted to see. Thats why coaches etc. use stats - to confirm what they do see.

Well then coaches should use the stats, (that proves they see what they see!!!! ) - year after year at this stage............... to do something about it?????

No???

Coaches are victims of all this bad play going on around them for years now, not months...years, and they don't see it as their role to look into the causes and effect solutions??

That - Sin é - is - their - role. It's why they get paid big salaries. Handling errors are their problem. They must find cause and solutions. They haven't...and we're 7th in the world again. Who knows, 8th or 9th by the end of the 6N? Coaches aren't learning the lessons.

SecretFly wrote:

Sin é wrote:

What has happened though on a lot of Ireland's attacks is that someone knocks-on, drops a pass, makes a forward pass etc. All down to skill levels.

...plus not being coached enough continuously to keep skills honed. In Ireland camp handling skills fall away. Back at Provincials , handling skills improve again. Question - why?

You trying to tell me that in a little over a week or two, handling skills can disimprove that much?

Everything is about 20% faster at international level compared to club level. The faster you have to do stuff (running faster etc), the more errors you will make.

mankiaow wrote:P.S. I've been an irregular contributor here but, as is the case with our team, since my previous visits there seems be a dearth of Irish posters. Or am I imagining it?

A combination of a depressing few weeks for irish rugby and Sin e's typical inane nonsense has driven away most people.

well I'm only holding the fort until the end of 6N..then I too will be gone for a long stretch.........

or, in other words, it'll be safe for the regulars to come back then

Sin é wrote:

You trying to tell me that in a little over a week or two, handling skills can disimprove that much?

Everything is about 20% faster at international level compared to club level. The faster you have to do stuff (running faster etc), the more errors you will make.

Are you going to keep this sensible, Sin é?

Coaches aren't responsible for Irish players losing games because of bad handling. Fact

And....................

International is 20% faster than club is proof of that? Meanwhile, International is 20% faster than club for everyone. For all. For Welsh players, English players, Italian players. For all, Sin é.

So......

The faster you do stuff, the more errors you will make.

So... does that mean everyone does it? The Welsh, the English, the Italians, the Scottish. So everyone does it, because it always inevitably happens when you speed up outside club level - but Ireland are the only ones suffering from it on the results front, according to your good self??? And are the ones to blame for it, because coaches can't improve those things with education and practice.....

yep, I see your point

Ah Fly, perhaps I was not clear before. What I meant was that when things are going well with Ireland it is because our players are well rested and better managed than our counterparts across the Irish sea. But when we lose they aren't battle hardened and don't play enough. It's swings and roundabouts. I don't think it really has that much to do with our poor results. It might be a factor, but it appears largely an intangible and hard to measure. I agree with you on the tactical front. Our defence is far too passive- we invite teams to attack us and run at us. Now, credit to the players, no one can question the ability of Marshall, BOD and McFadden in particular to through themselves in front on on coming trains. Its brave, but its not astute. Look at how quickly the English line of defence came up against us- we didn't have room to run, players couldn't gain much momentum, no offloading etc etc. Watch Ireland's defence. Static, passive and allows the opposition to run at us. There was a good piece in the UK Times last week, I think it was Thursday. It had stats from Opta which showed that Ireland had missed the fewest tackles. Good stuff. We had also made the fewest tackles that knocked opponents backwards leading to turnovers. I think we had two. The next worse was 6 (health warning, I'm am going from memory so those might be slightly off). Passive and static.

SecretFly wrote:well I'm only holding the fort until the end of 6N..then I too will be gone for a long stretch.........

or, in other words, it'll be safe for the regulars to come back then

Don't go please, you're probably the most astute poster around.

No offence taken from you're earlier comment by the way, I just disagree with you about the transition thing. We are in transition whether enforced or by design. Our greatest ever player is on the way out and along with a raft of injuries to our top performers, we are having to trawl through what I agree should have, by now, been a group experienced up and comers.

You may think I am a Kidneyophile, quite the opposite. Your point about his game plan is spot on. If you think back to his successful Munster teams there was always a period in their games where they took the foot of the gas and let teams come back at them. They had a great pack and were nearly always able to regain the momentum to steal games just when it looked like it was getting away from them. How many times did you see that happen. 6 or so years on and we are seeing something similar with Ireland except, as you point out, they do not have the physicality, fitness or whatever and they are running out of steam. They are probably as fit as the opposition but the game plan is sucking it out of them. That much is blatantly obvious at this stage.

So what Kidney is guilty of is having become a one-trick pony, just like his predecessor. Accomplished at club level but not having the ability to cut it at the highest level for a sustained period.

The problem is that the IRFU are not the sort of crowd to take a punt and maybe they might stick with him.

I hope not.