The pack strikes back?

With all the talk about how little resistance is facing the big 4 and how wonderful the big 4 are it is clear that the hegemony at the top is cracking. In recent days two of the big 4, Fed and Djokovic have lost to a 23 year old and a 21 year old in masters event. The young stars seem to be getting better, the old order is ageing and seeming more vulnerable. Federer has yet to win a title this year. Djokovic has lost matches to Haas, Del Po, and Dimitrov in recent weeks at events that he has won. Murray continues to struggle to find his best form on the one surface that has bedeviled him.

In contrast the younger guys Kei, Jerzy, Raonic, and dimitrov seem to be moving forward and up in the rankings. Tomic is there as well. This is probably the last year we have a big 4, as Federer is very close to the end of sterling career. Who will be the next new slam champion? Will it be the one of the veterans Tsonga and Berdy, will it be Raonic or dimitrov? But now we are really starting to see the cracks in the top 4 that has so dominated the last 5 years finishing in order at the top for so long. Personally, I think we will see a new big 3 (murray, djoko, and nadal) in the next couple of years with dangerous floaters who can snag an odd masters or possibly even an odd slam for the next few years. Fed falling away will open up opportunities for new slam champions to emerge.

I suspect that the 'Big 4' will be no more by the end of the year.

Fed, it appears, may finally be succumbing to advancing time and, even if his form improves, he'll be targeting specific titles rather than being a year-round force.

The younger guys? Improved but the jury is still out.

Dimitrov impressed me v Novak but was dismissed relatively comfortably by Stan in the next round.

Nishikori's result looks significant on paper but I think it was as much a poor Fed performance as a good Kei performance and, like Dimi, lost in the very next round.

I think it is a strange period right now. Novak and Andy are very patchy. Fed is struggling. Rafa is not at is best but is usually getting the results. DelPo has a worrying problem with illness. The young players are flirting with a breakthrough but not quite doing it.

The form players appear to be Haas and Wawrinka!

I'm finding it hard to get a sense of what the coming months may bring.

I'm with you Murdoch, it's all a bit up in the air at the moment.

However, I firmly believe that once the slams come around it'll be between the top four. None of the pack are gonna take the biggest prizes - certainly not this year.

I wouldn't write Federer off either. I think he probably struggles with motivation for the smaller tournies. He may say all the right things but deep down the hunger must be waning at these small tournies. If he can still keep the fire burning and remain injury free, he will be continue to be a big threat at the slams imo for at least a couple more years.



emancipator

emancipator wrote:I wouldn't write Federer off either.

I must admit, I was starting to think Fed was pretty much done.

His comments following the Nishikori defeat however, suggest that he still has some fire in his belly, so maybe he will stage another assault on a big tournament.

The tricky thing with Fed is that what he is going through could simply be a little niggle bringing on some wobbly form.

It could also be the inevitable slide that must come to all players sooner or later.

We'll see in the fullness of time but I do genuinely hope it is just the former.

HM Murdoch wrote:

emancipator wrote:I wouldn't write Federer off either.

I must admit, I was starting to think Fed was pretty much done.

His comments following the Nishikori defeat however, suggest that he still has some fire in his belly, so maybe he will stage another assault on a big tournament.

In my view all boils down on Wimbledon result, if he some how scraps to win the title again then that will re-ignite the hunger to play longer on the contrast if he goes down to say like red hot underdog on the day say like Fella we might even see a retirement in 2014, honestly speaking rest of the tournaments doesn't motivate him much, he played Madrid like a night warm-up at his backyard

Im not sure Federer has lost the motivation to win smaller tournaments. He mentioned in interviews that it was hard to stay at home with eight or nine tournaments knowing he could maybe have had his name on the winners roll on one or two. I think Kei basically caught Roger cold and he lost.

I have a question.

I've heard this a lot recently. "When Nadal, Murray, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer contest the same tournament, they have won 26 straight titles going back to Rome 2010." It's repeated on the ATP tournament site.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2013/05/19/Madrid-Friday-Berdych-Murray-Tsonga-Wawrinka.aspx

But how many titles has Murray won when Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are all in the draw? In 2013 he has won Brisbane (No F, N or D) Miami (No F or N). In 2012 he won US Open (no N), Olympics (No N) and Brisbane (No F, N or D)

I can't remember who was in the draw for the tournaments he won in 2011 and 2010. Did any feature Federer, Nadal and Djokovic? At a guess I would say Cininnati in 2011?

It might be interesting to see how many tournaments the others have won when all four were entered too?

It's

Novak - 11
Nadal - 8
Federer - 5
Murray - 3

"But how many titles has Murray won when Federer, Nadal and Djokovic are all in the draw? In 2013 he has won Brisbane (No F, N or D) Miami (No F or N). In 2012 he won US Open (no N), Olympics (No N) and Brisbane (No F, N or D)"



I think we should asterix Murray's entire career!

Born Slippy wrote:It's

Novak - 11
Nadal - 8
Federer - 5
Murray - 3

Oh Thank you. I wasn't sure how to get that information. Do you know what tournaments they were?

If Kei and Dimi follow up big wins with such damp squid performances in the future, then we might have to wait for the next era

It's time's like this when we should pray for a Wawrinka Masters win. Desperate stuff, but if he got more belief from that, then that would shake things up

Sorry socal I detect a whiff of short term hype, or bandwagoning. Federer is getting over and this could be a decline year but I see the same 3-4 at the top for a while yet. Of course it can't last forever but I see a big gap from 4 to 5. Not sure what the rankings say but in my mind Federer is the #4 and then there is a big gap and Ferrer is #5.

Dimitrov's form has been cool though.

I had given Novak one too many. The 26 tournaments in a row when the big 4 have all entered are:

Djokovic - AO11; IW11; Miami11; Rome 11; Madrid 11; Wim11; Canada 11; US11; AO12; Miami12

Nadal - Rome10; RG10; Wim10; US10; RG11; Rome12; RG12; IW13

Federer - Cincinnati 10; WTF10; WTF11; IW12; Wim12

Murray - Canada 10; Shanghai 10; Cincinnati 11

The pack may be striking back in Madrid but Madrid always offers unusual conditions. Lets see how this pack does in Rome and RG before oiling the wheels of the bandwagon further.

By the way, I left my posts in an open question form? I don't think fed is close to the end now so the big 4 is done and I don't know if the pack is truly closing the gap or not but yes they did have a good week in Madrid.