Points Spy - French Open

by Cogen Mon 27 May 2013, 3:24 pm

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	12310	1200	720	11830		Eliminated - SF
2	2	A. Murray [GBR]	8670	360	0	8310		Did Not Play
3	3	R. Federer [SUI]	8000	720	360	7640		Eliminated - QF
4	5	D. Ferrer [ESP]	6740	720	1200	7220	Up 1	Eliminated - Final
5	4	R. Nadal [ESP]	6895	2000	2000	6895	Down 1	Champion
6	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	4685	180	10	4515		Eliminated - R128
7	8	J. Tsonga [FRA]	3795	360	720	4155	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
8	7	J. Del Potro [ARG]	4320	360	0	3960	Down 1	Did Not Play
9	9	R. Gasquet [FRA]	3090	180	180	3090		Eliminated - R16
10	10	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	2630	180	360	2810		Eliminated - QF
11	14	T. Haas [GER]	2340	115	360	2585	Up 3	Eliminated - QF
12	11	M. Cilic [CRO]	2570	90	90	2570	Down 1	Eliminated - R32
13	15	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2315	0	180	2495	Up 2	Eliminated - R16
14	12	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	2480	180	90	2390	Down 2	Eliminated - R32
15	16	M. Raonic [CAN]	2225	90	90	2225	Up 1	Eliminated - R32
16	13	N. Almagro [ESP]	2375	360	180	2195	Down 3	Eliminated - R16
17	18	G. Simon [FRA]	1895	90	180	1985	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
18	19	P. Kohlschreiber [GER]	1750	45	180	1885	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
19	20	S. Querrey [USA]	1730	10	90	1810	Up 1	Eliminated - R32
20	17	J. Monaco [ARG]	1910	180	10	1740	Down 3	Eliminated - R128
		Selected Others:
23	25	K. Anderson [RSA]	1420	90	180	1510	Up 2	Eliminated - R16
27	34	T. Robredo [ESP]	1095	20	360	1435	Up 7	Eliminated - QF
30	31	M. Youzhny [RUS]	1265	90	180	1355	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
45	57	V. Troicki [SRB]	800	45	180	935	Up 12	Eliminated - R16

Main points of note:

Djokovic cannot be caught at #1
Federer needed to reach the final to claim #2 back from Murray, but lost in the QF.
Ferrer guaranteed the #4 spot by reaching the final.
Berdych had an opportunity to close the gap on the group above him, but lost in the first round to Monfils.
Del Potro did not play, and drops 360pts from a QF last year. This made him an enticing target for the chasing pack below, and Tsonga gobbled up that chance, overtaking the Argentine by reaching the SF.

by Cogen Mon 27 May 2013, 3:30 pm

Up and running Cool

The Points Spy website, including the Wind Down, has also been updated.

Enjoy.

by **laverfan** Mon 27 May 2013, 3:31 pm

Cogen.. Excellent, as usual. rose

by Cogen Mon 27 May 2013, 7:43 pm

Wow, Berdych out... and there I was tipping him to possibly upset Federer and reach the final...

by The Special Juan Mon 27 May 2013, 8:20 pm

Superb work as usual clap

I suppose one positive for Berdych is that unless Tsonga makes the final, he stays at number 6.

by Danny_1982 Mon 27 May 2013, 8:24 pm

I didn't realise Federer would only regain no.2 if he reaches the final. I thought it was a bit closer than that between him and Murray.

Great article Cogen.

by Henman Bill Mon 27 May 2013, 8:26 pm

thanks

by banbrotam Tue 28 May 2013, 9:40 am

Looks like Monfils might have another weekly best ranking rise

Great to see him back, no reason why he can't get back into at least the Top 20

Iv'e missed his 'frog in a blender' type Tennis Wink

by debaters1 Tue 28 May 2013, 1:05 pm

Fed's early Madrid exit cost him points from memory, hence why there is a bit of a gap between himself and Murray. Fed is defending 2,890 points over next month between RG, Halle & Wimby.

Nadal is relly going to have a free pass to No. 2 by year end, possibly even No.1 given he is defending 2090 points as we speak, a win at RG and he he is very likely to pick up lots of point wherever he plays thereafter.

by Henman Bill Tue 28 May 2013, 8:09 pm

"Nadal is relly going to have a free pass to No. 2 by year end, possibly even No.1"

Slightly overstating it - I think he is in a battle for #2 for Murray with an outside chance of #1. He lost his last 5 non-clay matches (in 2011 and the AO 2012) against Djokovic.

by debaters1 Wed 29 May 2013, 11:47 am

I agree HB, No. 1 will be tough, but it the number of points that he will gain by making with mere semi-final appearances, that with others defending big points, Murray 2000 at the US, Nole 1,200 and a Master Title, that the 2 and 1 slots are up for grabs, not least that whatever about Novak v Rafa H2H these days, Novak is losing to guys he didn't last year and in 2011.

So his slight (and i really mean SLIGHT) drop in level coupled with Rafa having zero points to defend post Wimby, leave him open in that regard. Rafa would, of course, have to earn the No. 1 spot but it is slightly easier to do so when you are a top calibre player with nothing to defend for 5 months.

by Cogen Wed 29 May 2013, 9:28 pm

Table back up to date.

The biggest loser of the tournament has to be Goffin, who will drop from to #58 to around #84; a drop of approx 26 places. He reached the fourth round, plus qualifying points from last year, but lost in the first round to Djokovic this year and faces a net drop of 186 points.

Monaco also teetering on the edge of the top 20 after losing in round one. He could drop out if Isner wins another couple of matches or Janowicz makes the QFs.

by lydian Wed 29 May 2013, 10:17 pm

Bad news for Go-Fan. He'll be back into Challengers then.

Good work Cogen

by Cogen Fri 31 May 2013, 6:44 pm

Added in any players who've made the last 16, cos its when the points start getting serious. Cool

by Cogen Sat 01 Jun 2013, 9:28 pm

Now that the final 16 are all locked in, lets have a look at what each of them has to gain for the remainder of the tournament.

Name	Started At	>	Currently	>	Reach QF	Reach SF	Reach Final	Win Title
Djokovic	1		1		1	1	1	1
Federer	3		3		3	3	2	2
Ferrer	5		4		4	4	4	3
Nadal	4		5		5	5	5	4
Tsonga	8		8		8	7	6	5
Gasquet	9		9		9	8	7	6
Wawrinka	10		10		10	9	8	7
Nishikori	15		12		10	10	9	7
Haas	14		13		11	10	9	7
Almagro	13		16		15	10	9	7
Simon	18		17		17	12	10	8
Kohlschreiber	19		18		17	13	10	8
Anderson	25		23		22	17	12	9
Youzhny	31		29		23	18	15	9
Robredo	34		32		27	20	15	10
Troicki	57		45		35	25	18	10

These are maximum rankings. Sometimes they might end up slightly lower, if the people they were predicted to overtake also have further victories of their own.

by Henman Bill Sat 01 Jun 2013, 9:57 pm

Wow, what a cool table.!

Took me a minute to work it out but looks like green refers to an increase in ranking by advancing a round, white to staying the same, red to declining depsite advancing a round presumably due to bigger points to defend.

by Henman Bill Sat 01 Jun 2013, 10:02 pm

Tsonga, berdych and Del Potro just aren't catching Ferrer. The four players I see at the same level but statistically that just isn't the case, Ferrer has been maintaining a clear gap for a while now. I had expected Del Potro to get back to 5 and even challenge for 4 but he looks less like doing it at the moment.

by Cogen Mon 03 Jun 2013, 12:50 pm

With Haas dealing Youzhny a crushing defeat, (didn't actually see the match, but it certainly looks that way by the scoreline), Robredo is now the only man ranked outside the top 20 remaining in the draw...

Come on the Tommys! Cool

by lydian Mon 03 Jun 2013, 1:15 pm

That Saturday post is amazing cogen!
Lord knows how you do it but very glad you do!

Bubbly

by Cogen Tue 04 Jun 2013, 5:26 pm

Well well well. Federer out to Tsonga. That means Tsonga will overtake Del Potro when the rankings are released.

So we have a Tsonga vs Ferrer semi-final. Huge for both of them. If Tsonga wins he'll pass Berdych. If Ferrer wins, he'll lock down the #4 spot, and have a shot at #3 in the final.

I'm sure at this point they're both firmly focused on their first slam title rather than the rankings, though! Laugh

by invisiblecoolers Tue 04 Jun 2013, 6:58 pm

Cogen wrote:Well well well. Federer out to Tsonga. That means Tsonga will overtake Del Potro when the rankings are released.

So we have a Tsonga vs Ferrer semi-final. Huge for both of them. If Tsonga wins he'll pass Berdych. If Ferrer wins, he'll lock down the #4 spot, and have a shot at #3 in the final.

I'm sure at this point they're both firmly focused on their first slam title rather than the rankings, though!

Well Tsonga can go ahead of Rafa if he wins the title and Rafa knocked out by Djoko in the semi's right?

by **JuliusHMarx** Tue 04 Jun 2013, 7:01 pm

If Ferrer wins he will be above Fed!

by invisiblecoolers Tue 04 Jun 2013, 7:03 pm

JuliusHMarx wrote:If Ferrer wins he will be above Fed!

If Tsonga wins he will be above Nadal. Very Happy

by Born Slippy Tue 04 Jun 2013, 7:27 pm

Tsonga can only go above Nadal if Stan beats Rafa tomorrow.

by The Special Juan Tue 04 Jun 2013, 8:01 pm

I have to ask you Cogen, for the player pictures on Points Spy, did you pick a photo where the player is fistpumping on purpose or is it a massive coincidence?

by ryan86 Tue 04 Jun 2013, 8:11 pm

Querrey looks like he's doing the "Black Power" movement or whatever from the 60's.

And Cilic has a bit of the Bruce Forsyth's about him.

by Cogen Wed 05 Jun 2013, 12:41 am

Haha, yes, I'm glad you noticed... the fist-pump theme is very much intentional! Smile

The first few pics I grabbed for the top guys were all fist pumps, so I thought I better keep them as a matching set. Laugh

by Silver Wed 05 Jun 2013, 2:22 pm

It's a great theme! Raonic looks vaguely constipated, Almagro has clearly seen something unspeakably terrifying in the crowd, and Nishikori seems to have won the lottery Very Happy

Can't give you enough plaudits for your site Cogen, you've done an amazing job with it. Incredibly helpful, thank you.

by The Special Juan Wed 05 Jun 2013, 4:34 pm

I love the theme too. In the words of Gary Busey from Family Guy "Keep it up!"

by CJB Wed 05 Jun 2013, 5:11 pm

Cogen do you have any idea the general Wimbledon seedings?

Djokovic
Federer?
Murray?
Nadal?
Ferrer
Tsonga
Berdych
Potro
Gasquet

by Cogen Thu 06 Jun 2013, 3:44 am

Good question, CJB.

Obviously, yes, Djokovic is a long way ahead and will be seeded #1, but we can't nail down the numbers for Nadal, Ferrer and Tsonga at the moment as there are a lot of points still up for grabs in the next few days which could be game changing.

Lets look at Federer and Murray in the battle for #2 seeding.

The formula for Wimbledon seedings is: official points total + 100% of grass points in the last 12 months + 75% of points for best grass result in previous 12 months.

Murray:
8310
+1200 (Wimbledon '12)
+750 (Olympics '12)
+540 (75% of Wimbledon '11)
= 10800

Federer:
7640
+2000 (Wimbledon '12)
+450 (Olympics '12)
+270 (75% of Wimbledon '11)
= 10360

So, it looks like Murray hangs on to #2 seeding. I haven't included Fed's 150pts from Halle last year, because as I understand it, by the time the seedings are calculated that tournament will be outside the 12-month window.

The gap is only 440pts though. If I'm not mistaken, that is a gap which Federer could potentially overcome. If he wins 250 points in Halle this year, he'd get the 100% bonus, making it worth 500 points.

Edit: As Born Slippy pointed out below, Federer will of course drop his 150 Halle points from his total before Wimbledon seedings are calculated, so that gap will be greater than 500 points. Murray will definitely be seeded 2nd... as long as he plays... Whistle

by Cogen Thu 06 Jun 2013, 4:00 am

We could also take a quick look at Ferrer and Nadal's bonuses to give us an idea of what might happen.

Ferrer:
+360 (Wimbledon'12)
+250 (s-Hertogenbosch '12 ... This drops on 24th June, I think it will still be within 12 months when seedings are done)
+70 (Olympics '12)
+135 (75% of Wimbledon '11)
= 815 bonus.

Nadal:
+45 (Wimbledon '12)
+900 (75% of Wimbledon '11)
= 945 bonus.

So Nadal has a slight edge on the bonus, but nothing huge. If Nadal retains his French Open title, and Ferrer loses to Tsonga, then Nadal will probably be #4 seed. But if Ferrer reaches the final, or Nadal doesn't win the title, then Ferrer will be #4 seed.

If Ferrer could pull off a miracle and win the French, then he'd go up to #3 in the world, but he'd only pass Federer by 380pts, and the grass court bonuses of Federer and Murray would ensure they are still seeded above Ferrer.

by Cogen Thu 06 Jun 2013, 4:25 am

Ok... you've twisted my arm... we'll take a gander at Berdych and Tsonga too. Laugh

Berdych:
+10 (Wimbledon '12)
+5 (Olympics '12)
+135 (75% of Wimbledon '11)
= 150 bonus.

Tsonga:
+720 (Wimbledon '12)
+135 (Olympics '12)
+540 (75% of Wimbledon '11)
= 1395 bonus.

Tsonga's bonus is massive in comparison to Berdych (didn't realise his results were so poor on grass!) so, yes, Tsonga will be seeded above Berdych, even if he loses his semi at the French Open.

If Djokovic beats Nadal in their semi, and Tsonga reaches the final, he'll still trail Nadal by about a thousand points, so his 450pt bonus advantage would not be enough to change things.

But should Tsonga beat Djokovic in the final, he'd only be 180pts behind Nadal in the rankings, and with the inclusion of the bonus he would end up seeded above Nadal, unless Nadal could earn some big points in the grass court warm-ups.

by Born Slippy Thu 06 Jun 2013, 6:10 am

In relation to Murray/Federer, I think you also need to remove the Halle points from Fed's overall total, as I presume they will drop before the seedings are done. That increases the gap above 500 points.

by lydian Thu 06 Jun 2013, 6:21 am

As always, nice work cogen, very informative Smile

by Cogen Thu 06 Jun 2013, 11:48 am

Born Slippy wrote:In relation to Murray/Federer, I think you also need to remove the Halle points from Fed's overall total, as I presume they will drop before the seedings are done. That increases the gap above 500 points.

... This is what happens when you try and do calculations at 4am! Cheers Hug

lydian wrote:As always, nice work cogen, very informative

Only informative when I get it right... Wink

by CJB Thu 06 Jun 2013, 1:06 pm

Thank you Cogen

by Cogen Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:43 pm

So, by reaching the final, Ferrer has put himself in prime position to be seeded above Nadal at Wimbledon. Winning the title in Halle would pop Rafa back up there, but otherwise the seedings will probably be as follows:

1) Djokovic
2) Murray
3) Federer
4) Ferrer
5) Nadal
6) Tsonga
7) Berdych
8) Del Potro

by The Special Juan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:05 pm

Come on Nadal, Djokovic and Federer (and Berdych) in the opposite half of Murray's draw!!

by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:50 pm

When is the seeding for SW? If Nadal plays and wins Halle, or Queens (assuming he wins RG) or that matter can he fetch Ferrer? I suspect no, but I'm asking anyway?

by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:51 pm

How many 250s are added to your countibles again?

by Dave. Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:55 pm

I've been thinking.

Could Wimbledon give Fed the two seed and demote Murray to 3?

by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:58 pm

I think Cogen's comments yesterday at 3.44 already answered this

by Dave. Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:00 pm

Ahh so he did.

Cogen thumbsup

by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:01 pm

Interesting quirk of the current ranking system how Rafa could win the tournament and fall a place in the rankings. I believe Sampras even lost the #1 ranking to Agassi after beating him in the 1999 Wimbledon final, because he only equalled his previous year points, but Agassi beat his.

by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:06 pm

Jeez he answered it word for word. Should never skim through...

by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:07 pm

Yes HB - I remember in 2011, when Djokovic was to be crowned world #1, regardless of the Final result. Nadal could have been the world #2 while in possesion of RG, W, and USO had he won.

by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:08 pm

Cogen wrote:So, by reaching the final, Ferrer has put himself in prime position to be seeded above Nadal at Wimbledon. Winning the title in Halle would pop Rafa back up there, but otherwise the seedings will probably be as follows:

1) Djokovic
2) Murray
3) Federer
4) Ferrer
5) Nadal
6) Tsonga
7) Berdych
8) Del Potro

It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter. thumbsup

by ryan86 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:14 pm

Cogen, am I right in thinking that the only way Federer can stay above Ferrer is by winning Wimbledon?

by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:20 pm

Nadal would also be on his rear-view mirror. A SF for Nadal and I think Fed is in real trouble of becoming world #5. Especially since he has some Olympic points he will not defend.

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