Points Spy - French Open

by Cogen Mon May 27, 2013 3:24 pm

First topic message reminder :

Live Rank	Orig Rank	Player	Orig Points	Drop Points	Gain Points	Live Points	Live Movement	Current Status	Next Opponent
1	1	N. Djokovic [SRB]	12310	1200	720	11830		Eliminated - SF
2	2	A. Murray [GBR]	8670	360	0	8310		Did Not Play
3	3	R. Federer [SUI]	8000	720	360	7640		Eliminated - QF
4	5	D. Ferrer [ESP]	6740	720	1200	7220	Up 1	Eliminated - Final
5	4	R. Nadal [ESP]	6895	2000	2000	6895	Down 1	Champion
6	6	T. Berdych [CZE]	4685	180	10	4515		Eliminated - R128
7	8	J. Tsonga [FRA]	3795	360	720	4155	Up 1	Eliminated - SF
8	7	J. Del Potro [ARG]	4320	360	0	3960	Down 1	Did Not Play
9	9	R. Gasquet [FRA]	3090	180	180	3090		Eliminated - R16
10	10	S. Wawrinka [SUI]	2630	180	360	2810		Eliminated - QF
11	14	T. Haas [GER]	2340	115	360	2585	Up 3	Eliminated - QF
12	11	M. Cilic [CRO]	2570	90	90	2570	Down 1	Eliminated - R32
13	15	K. Nishikori [JPN]	2315	0	180	2495	Up 2	Eliminated - R16
14	12	J. Tipsarevic [SRB]	2480	180	90	2390	Down 2	Eliminated - R32
15	16	M. Raonic [CAN]	2225	90	90	2225	Up 1	Eliminated - R32
16	13	N. Almagro [ESP]	2375	360	180	2195	Down 3	Eliminated - R16
17	18	G. Simon [FRA]	1895	90	180	1985	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
18	19	P. Kohlschreiber [GER]	1750	45	180	1885	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
19	20	S. Querrey [USA]	1730	10	90	1810	Up 1	Eliminated - R32
20	17	J. Monaco [ARG]	1910	180	10	1740	Down 3	Eliminated - R128
		Selected Others:
23	25	K. Anderson [RSA]	1420	90	180	1510	Up 2	Eliminated - R16
27	34	T. Robredo [ESP]	1095	20	360	1435	Up 7	Eliminated - QF
30	31	M. Youzhny [RUS]	1265	90	180	1355	Up 1	Eliminated - R16
45	57	V. Troicki [SRB]	800	45	180	935	Up 12	Eliminated - R16

Main points of note:

Djokovic cannot be caught at #1
Federer needed to reach the final to claim #2 back from Murray, but lost in the QF.
Ferrer guaranteed the #4 spot by reaching the final.
Berdych had an opportunity to close the gap on the group above him, but lost in the first round to Monfils.
Del Potro did not play, and drops 360pts from a QF last year. This made him an enticing target for the chasing pack below, and Tsonga gobbled up that chance, overtaking the Argentine by reaching the SF.

by ryan86 Fri Jun 07, 2013 11:46 pm

Nadal 6850/6050
Ferrer 7660/6860
Federer 5465

As far as I can make out using the Windown, that's the points gained after Wimbledon last year.

Ferrer defends a title in s'Hertgenbosch, but it doesn't matter how he does because he's got a non-counting 250 from Auckland. I don't think Nadal can gain anything by playing Halle (ATP has Vina del Mar as non-countable with 250 from SP)

Federer can get to 5715 by winning Halle I think.

by Cogen Sat Jun 08, 2013 3:19 am

ryan86 wrote:I don't think Nadal can gain anything by playing Halle (ATP has Vina del Mar as non-countable with 250 from SP)

This is true, I didn't pay close attention to Nadal's breakdown. I thought he'd be able to gain something by playing Halle, but he can't... at least not towards his ranking total. He could get another 250pts towards his grass court seeding bonus, but that won't be enough as he'll finish over 300 points behind Ferrer coming out of the French, no matter what.

So Ferrer will definitely be seeded above Nadal for Wimbledon.

...............

As for rankings after Wimbledon if Federer doesn't retain his title...

If Nadal wins the title in RG, then the gaps coming out of this week will be:
Federer: 7640
Ferrer: 7220 (420 behind)
Nadal: 6895 (745 behind)

Ferrer and Nadal can gain nothing in the grass court build-up, as their breakdowns are saturated. Federer could raise his 150 in Halle to 250 and increase the gaps by 100pts.

On to Wimbledon itself... If we're assuming Federer doesn't retain his title and loses in the final, that is a loss of 800pts.

We have Ferrer at this stage only 520pts behind Federer, so as long as Ferrer loses less than 280pts himself (800-520=280) then he would overtake Federer in the rankings. Ferrer is defending 360pts at Wimbledon, so 90pts (third round) would be all he needs to make an acceptable loss. Of course, if Federer doesn't gain anything in Halle, then the acceptable loss is at least 380pts, meaning Ferrer doesn't have to win a single match!

Nadal, we have potentially 845 points behind Federer. So if Federer drops 800pts, he has a further 45 to close up. Nadal is defending R2 at Wimbledon, worth 45pts, so reaching R3 would get him the extra 45 he needs. So both Ferrer and Nadal have the same target round. Again if Fed doesnt pick up the extra points in Halle, Nadal would have to do nothing.

To summarise:

If Federer wins Halle, and loses in the final of Wimbledon. Ferrer and Nadal must both reach round 3 to overtake him in the rankings.
If Federer does not win Halle, and loses in the final of Wimbledon, Ferrer and Nadal will both overtake him.
If Federer doesn't reach the final of Wimbledon, Ferrer and Nadal will both overtake him.
If Federer does retain his Wimbledon title, only one of Ferrer/Nadal would be able to pass him, and they'd have to reach the final to do it.

*all points based on assumption that Nadal wins Roland Garros*

Bottom line... if Federer doesn't win Wimbledon he's almost certainly going down to #5. Wink

by The Special Juan Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:08 am

Superb breakdown Cogen, but perhaps not one Federer fans should read Smile

by kingraf Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:18 am

Its remarkable to think that a Halle victory will be Federers first title for the YEAR! Fed is defending a choc full of points until USO, but I think wost case scenario, Federer becomes world #5.

by banbrotam Sat Jun 08, 2013 11:30 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter.

I'll settle for that!!!

by debaters1 Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:57 am

banbrotam wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter.

I'll settle for that!!!

Invisible, I admire your faith in Rafa reaching the Semi's at Wimby (My fingers will crossed that he does and more besides!) but how can you assign with such certainty the location of Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych & Tsonga in the draw? Only 1st and second are kept apart til the final and the top 4 until the semi's. Where 5 to 8 are drawn is purely guess work at this point in time. Indeed, an injury withdrawal by anyone and things change again.

by Henman Bill Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:09 pm

As a Federer fan, it's hard to argue with Federer not being in the top 3 after Wimbledon if he fails to get to the final there or win it.

You could make a case certainly that he is a better player than Ferrer, and that Ferrer is ahead of him on temporary form or playing more tournaments, but it's hard to argue at the moment that Federer deserves to ranked ahead of Murray, Nadal or Djokovic.

In ranking points since (but not including) the Australian Open, Nadal must be miles ahead, and, consequently, in a good position to be potentially ranked no 1 after the Australian Open 2014.

by The Special Juan Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:15 pm

Nadal's already qualified for the 02........

by **laverfan** Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:18 pm

debaters1 wrote:
banbrotam wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter.

I'll settle for that!!!

Invisible, I admire your faith in Rafa reaching the Semi's at Wimby (My fingers will crossed that he does and more besides!) but how can you assign with such certainty the location of Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych & Tsonga in the draw? Only 1st and second are kept apart til the final and the top 4 until the semi's. Where 5 to 8 are drawn is purely guess work at this point in time. Indeed, an injury withdrawal by anyone and things change again.

You should know that iC is part of the Draw Rigging Committee and Community.

by debaters1 Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:35 pm

HB,

Indeed, the relative form of Ferrer is arguable in respect of Fed's ranking to him, but you're correct, if/when Nadal leap frogs Fed, it'll be on merit for sure, 7 tournie wins this year.... Wow. Better than i could ever have remotely hoped. The Indian Wells win is probably the most amazing one too.

Jaun, I though that all the Major winners are pretty much guarenteed to be at the O2?

Laver,

Thank you for the intel. Now I know! Wink

by dummy_half Tue Jun 11, 2013 1:11 pm

David Ferrer for #2 by the USO?

Murray has a lot of points to defend with the Wimby final, Olympics (750 points not being replaced) and then the USO title, so needs a good run of form over the summer to keep the gap over Ferrer and Rafa manageable.

Shows what a fantastic job little Daveed has done of exploiting the weakness in the draws during Rafa's long absence and Andy's recent shorter layoff - can't recall him having beaten any of the Big 4 during the last year, but he is so consistent at beating those below him in the rankings that he regularly reaches his seeded position and possibly beyond if someone else has already got the better of Federer.

by Henman Bill Tue Jun 11, 2013 1:15 pm

I'll be suprised if Ferrer stays in the top 3, maybe for some weeks but not by year end.

by YvonneT Tue Jun 11, 2013 1:40 pm

dummy_half wrote:David Ferrer for #2 by the USO?

Murray has a lot of points to defend with the Wimby final, Olympics (750 points not being replaced) and then the USO title, so needs a good run of form over the summer to keep the gap over Ferrer and Rafa manageable.

Shows what a fantastic job little Daveed has done of exploiting the weakness in the draws during Rafa's long absence and Andy's recent shorter layoff - can't recall him having beaten any of the Big 4 during the last year, but he is so consistent at beating those below him in the rankings that he regularly reaches his seeded position and possibly beyond if someone else has already got the better of Federer.

Murray at Roland Garros is the only one I recall.

It's a distinct possibility, isn't it? Rafa can gain on him quickly from here of course, but Ferrer could have an RG type draw & tournament at Wimbledon - could easily see him reaching the SF or final if he avoids Nadal in his quarter, then he could gain as much as Nadal could. He doesn't have many undefendable points from the Olympics or the 2 US Masters (as far as I recall). And if Fed drops to 5, he doesn't need to worry too much about Rafa's points to retain his top 4 seeding wherever he plays.

I agree with HB that I can't see him staying top 3 for long, but he could certainly take advantage of where he is now.

by dummy_half Tue Jun 11, 2013 4:06 pm

YvonneT wrote:
Murray at Roland Garros is the only one I recall.

...
I agree with HB that I can't see him staying top 3 for long, but he could certainly take advantage of where he is now.

Murray at RG 2012 of course no longer counts in the rankings (and beating Murray on clay doesn't exactly count as a shock result for Ferrer).

I'm not suggesting Ferrer is now of the same standard as Fedalovicurray, but just making the point that he has done fantastically well to confirm that he has been the best of the rest over the last year or so, and that his ranking position shows how well he has done.

by debaters1 Wed Jun 12, 2013 8:49 am

dummy_half wrote:
YvonneT wrote:
Murray at Roland Garros is the only one I recall.

...
I agree with HB that I can't see him staying top 3 for long, but he could certainly take advantage of where he is now.

Murray at RG 2012 of course no longer counts in the rankings (and beating Murray on clay doesn't exactly count as a shock result for Ferrer).

I'm not suggesting Ferrer is now of the same standard as Fedalovicurray, but just making the point that he has done fantastically well to confirm that he has been the best of the rest over the last year or so, and that his ranking position shows how well he has done.

The best compound collective noun. I salute you sir! Kudos. I agree that Ferrer has certainly gapped some of the other 5-15 ranked players, but there are a few outside the Top 4 that could yet make a pitch for year end number 4 along with David. I say number 4 due to the high number of point that Federer is defending over the next month. We shall see what happens anyway.

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