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Points Spy - French Open

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CJB
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ryan86
Born Slippy
JuliusHMarx
invisiblecoolers
lydian
debaters1
banbrotam
Henman Bill
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The Special Juan
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Cogen
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Points Spy - French Open - Page 2 Empty Points Spy - French Open

Post by Cogen Mon 27 May 2013, 3:24 pm

First topic message reminder :

Live
Rank
Orig
Rank
Player
Orig
Points
Drop
Points
Gain
Points
Live
Points
Live
Movement
Current Status
Next Opponent
1
1
N. Djokovic [SRB]
12310
1200
720
11830
Eliminated - SF
2
2
A. Murray [GBR]
8670
360
0
8310
Did Not Play
3
3
R. Federer [SUI]
8000
720
360
7640
Eliminated - QF
4
5
D. Ferrer [ESP]
6740
720
1200
7220
Up 1
Eliminated - Final
5
4
R. Nadal [ESP]
6895
2000
2000
6895
Down 1
Champion
6
6
T. Berdych [CZE]
4685
180
10
4515
Eliminated - R128
7
8
J. Tsonga [FRA]
3795
360
720
4155
Up 1
Eliminated - SF
8
7
J. Del Potro [ARG]
4320
360
0
3960
Down 1
Did Not Play
9
9
R. Gasquet [FRA]
3090
180
180
3090
Eliminated - R16
10
10
S. Wawrinka [SUI]
2630
180
360
2810
Eliminated - QF
11
14
T. Haas [GER]
2340
115
360
2585
Up 3
Eliminated - QF
12
11
M. Cilic [CRO]
2570
90
90
2570
Down 1
Eliminated - R32
13
15
K. Nishikori [JPN]
2315
0
180
2495
Up 2
Eliminated - R16
14
12
J. Tipsarevic [SRB]
2480
180
90
2390
Down 2
Eliminated - R32
15
16
M. Raonic [CAN]
2225
90
90
2225
Up 1
Eliminated - R32
16
13
N. Almagro [ESP]
2375
360
180
2195
Down 3
Eliminated - R16
17
18
G. Simon [FRA]
1895
90
180
1985
Up 1
Eliminated - R16
18
19
P. Kohlschreiber [GER]
1750
45
180
1885
Up 1
Eliminated - R16
19
20
S. Querrey [USA]
1730
10
90
1810
Up 1
Eliminated - R32
20
17
J. Monaco [ARG]
1910
180
10
1740
Down 3
Eliminated - R128
Selected Others:
23
25
K. Anderson [RSA]
1420
90
180
1510
Up 2
Eliminated - R16
27
34
T. Robredo [ESP]
1095
20
360
1435
Up 7
Eliminated - QF
30
31
M. Youzhny [RUS]
1265
90
180
1355
Up 1
Eliminated - R16
45
57
V. Troicki [SRB]
800
45
180
935
Up 12
Eliminated - R16
Main points of note:

  • Djokovic cannot be caught at #1
  • Federer needed to reach the final to claim #2 back from Murray, but lost in the QF.
  • Ferrer guaranteed the #4 spot by reaching the final.
  • Berdych had an opportunity to close the gap on the group above him, but lost in the first round to Monfils.
  • Del Potro did not play, and drops 360pts from a QF last year. This made him an enticing target for the chasing pack below, and Tsonga gobbled up that chance, overtaking the Argentine by reaching the SF.


Last edited by Cogen on Mon 10 Jun 2013, 4:33 pm; edited 20 times in total

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Post by ryan86 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:46 pm

Nadal 6850/6050
Ferrer 7660/6860
Federer 5465

As far as I can make out using the Windown, that's the points gained after Wimbledon last year.

Ferrer defends a title in s'Hertgenbosch, but it doesn't matter how he does because he's got a non-counting 250 from Auckland. I don't think Nadal can gain anything by playing Halle (ATP has Vina del Mar as non-countable with 250 from SP)

Federer can get to 5715 by winning Halle I think.

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Post by Cogen Sat 08 Jun 2013, 3:19 am

ryan86 wrote:I don't think Nadal can gain anything by playing Halle (ATP has Vina del Mar as non-countable with 250 from SP)

This is true, I didn't pay close attention to Nadal's breakdown. I thought he'd be able to gain something by playing Halle, but he can't... at least not towards his ranking total. He could get another 250pts towards his grass court seeding bonus, but that won't be enough as he'll finish over 300 points behind Ferrer coming out of the French, no matter what.

So Ferrer will definitely be seeded above Nadal for Wimbledon.

...............

As for rankings after Wimbledon if Federer doesn't retain his title...

If Nadal wins the title in RG, then the gaps coming out of this week will be:
Federer: 7640
Ferrer: 7220 (420 behind)
Nadal: 6895 (745 behind)

Ferrer and Nadal can gain nothing in the grass court build-up, as their breakdowns are saturated. Federer could raise his 150 in Halle to 250 and increase the gaps by 100pts.

On to Wimbledon itself... If we're assuming Federer doesn't retain his title and loses in the final, that is a loss of 800pts.

We have Ferrer at this stage only 520pts behind Federer, so as long as Ferrer loses less than 280pts himself (800-520=280) then he would overtake Federer in the rankings. Ferrer is defending 360pts at Wimbledon, so 90pts (third round) would be all he needs to make an acceptable loss. Of course, if Federer doesn't gain anything in Halle, then the acceptable loss is at least 380pts, meaning Ferrer doesn't have to win a single match!

Nadal, we have potentially 845 points behind Federer. So if Federer drops 800pts, he has a further 45 to close up. Nadal is defending R2 at Wimbledon, worth 45pts, so reaching R3 would get him the extra 45 he needs. So both Ferrer and Nadal have the same target round. Again if Fed doesnt pick up the extra points in Halle, Nadal would have to do nothing.

To summarise:

  • If Federer wins Halle, and loses in the final of Wimbledon. Ferrer and Nadal must both reach round 3 to overtake him in the rankings.
  • If Federer does not win Halle, and loses in the final of Wimbledon, Ferrer and Nadal will both overtake him.
  • If Federer doesn't reach the final of Wimbledon, Ferrer and Nadal will both overtake him.
  • If Federer does retain his Wimbledon title, only one of Ferrer/Nadal would be able to pass him, and they'd have to reach the final to do it.

*all points based on assumption that Nadal wins Roland Garros*

Bottom line... if Federer doesn't win Wimbledon he's almost certainly going down to #5. Wink

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Post by The Special Juan Sat 08 Jun 2013, 11:08 am

Superb breakdown Cogen, but perhaps not one Federer fans should read Smile
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Post by kingraf Sat 08 Jun 2013, 11:18 am

Its remarkable to think that a Halle victory will be Federers first title for the YEAR! Fed is defending a choc full of points until USO, but I think wost case scenario, Federer becomes world #5.
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Post by banbrotam Sat 08 Jun 2013, 11:30 pm

invisiblecoolers wrote:It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter. thumbsup


I'll settle for that!!!

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Post by debaters1 Mon 10 Jun 2013, 10:57 am

banbrotam wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter. thumbsup


I'll settle for that!!!

Invisible, I admire your faith in Rafa reaching the Semi's at Wimby (My fingers will crossed that he does and more besides!) but how can you assign with such certainty the location of Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych & Tsonga in the draw? Only 1st and second are kept apart til the final and the top 4 until the semi's. Where 5 to 8 are drawn is purely guess work at this point in time. Indeed, an injury withdrawal by anyone and things change again.

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Post by Henman Bill Mon 10 Jun 2013, 12:09 pm

As a Federer fan, it's hard to argue with Federer not being in the top 3 after Wimbledon if he fails to get to the final there or win it.

You could make a case certainly that he is a better player than Ferrer, and that Ferrer is ahead of him on temporary form or playing more tournaments, but it's hard to argue at the moment that Federer deserves to ranked ahead of Murray, Nadal or Djokovic.

In ranking points since (but not including) the Australian Open, Nadal must be miles ahead, and, consequently, in a good position to be potentially ranked no 1 after the Australian Open 2014.

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Post by The Special Juan Mon 10 Jun 2013, 12:15 pm

Nadal's already qualified for the 02........
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Post by laverfan Mon 10 Jun 2013, 12:18 pm

debaters1 wrote:
banbrotam wrote:
invisiblecoolers wrote:It doesn't really matter, coz Djoko - Rafa gonna be the semi's and Fed - Murray gonna be the other semi, Ferrer in Rafa's quarter, Del Potro in Fed's quarter, Berdych in Djoko's quarter and Tsonga in Murray's quarter. thumbsup


I'll settle for that!!!

Invisible, I admire your faith in Rafa reaching the Semi's at Wimby (My fingers will crossed that he does and more besides!) but how can you assign with such certainty the location of Delpo, Ferrer, Berdych & Tsonga in the draw? Only 1st and second are kept apart til the final and the top 4 until the semi's. Where 5 to 8 are drawn is purely guess work at this point in time. Indeed, an injury withdrawal by anyone and things change again.

You should know that iC is part of the Draw Rigging Committee and Community.

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Post by debaters1 Mon 10 Jun 2013, 2:35 pm

HB,

Indeed, the relative form of Ferrer is arguable in respect of Fed's ranking to him, but you're correct, if/when Nadal leap frogs Fed, it'll be on merit for sure, 7 tournie wins this year.... Wow. Better than i could ever have remotely hoped. The Indian Wells win is probably the most amazing one too.

Jaun, I though that all the Major winners are pretty much guarenteed to be at the O2?

Laver,

Thank you for the intel. Now I know! Wink




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Post by dummy_half Tue 11 Jun 2013, 1:11 pm

David Ferrer for #2 by the USO?

Murray has a lot of points to defend with the Wimby final, Olympics (750 points not being replaced) and then the USO title, so needs a good run of form over the summer to keep the gap over Ferrer and Rafa manageable.

Shows what a fantastic job little Daveed has done of exploiting the weakness in the draws during Rafa's long absence and Andy's recent shorter layoff - can't recall him having beaten any of the Big 4 during the last year, but he is so consistent at beating those below him in the rankings that he regularly reaches his seeded position and possibly beyond if someone else has already got the better of Federer.

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Post by Henman Bill Tue 11 Jun 2013, 1:15 pm

I'll be suprised if Ferrer stays in the top 3, maybe for some weeks but not by year end.

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Post by YvonneT Tue 11 Jun 2013, 1:40 pm

dummy_half wrote:David Ferrer for #2 by the USO?

Murray has a lot of points to defend with the Wimby final, Olympics (750 points not being replaced) and then the USO title, so needs a good run of form over the summer to keep the gap over Ferrer and Rafa manageable.

Shows what a fantastic job little Daveed has done of exploiting the weakness in the draws during Rafa's long absence and Andy's recent shorter layoff - can't recall him having beaten any of the Big 4 during the last year, but he is so consistent at beating those below him in the rankings that he regularly reaches his seeded position and possibly beyond if someone else has already got the better of Federer.
Murray at Roland Garros is the only one I recall.

It's a distinct possibility, isn't it? Rafa can gain on him quickly from here of course, but Ferrer could have an RG type draw & tournament at Wimbledon - could easily see him reaching the SF or final if he avoids Nadal in his quarter, then he could gain as much as Nadal could. He doesn't have many undefendable points from the Olympics or the 2 US Masters (as far as I recall). And if Fed drops to 5, he doesn't need to worry too much about Rafa's points to retain his top 4 seeding wherever he plays.

I agree with HB that I can't see him staying top 3 for long, but he could certainly take advantage of where he is now.

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Post by dummy_half Tue 11 Jun 2013, 4:06 pm

YvonneT wrote:
Murray at Roland Garros is the only one I recall.

...
I agree with HB that I can't see him staying top 3 for long, but he could certainly take advantage of where he is now.

Murray at RG 2012 of course no longer counts in the rankings (and beating Murray on clay doesn't exactly count as a shock result for Ferrer).

I'm not suggesting Ferrer is now of the same standard as Fedalovicurray, but just making the point that he has done fantastically well to confirm that he has been the best of the rest over the last year or so, and that his ranking position shows how well he has done.

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Post by debaters1 Wed 12 Jun 2013, 8:49 am

dummy_half wrote:
YvonneT wrote:
Murray at Roland Garros is the only one I recall.

...
I agree with HB that I can't see him staying top 3 for long, but he could certainly take advantage of where he is now.

Murray at RG 2012 of course no longer counts in the rankings (and beating Murray on clay doesn't exactly count as a shock result for Ferrer).

I'm not suggesting Ferrer is now of the same standard as Fedalovicurray, but just making the point that he has done fantastically well to confirm that he has been the best of the rest over the last year or so, and that his ranking position shows how well he has done.

The best compound collective noun. I salute you sir! Kudos. I agree that Ferrer has certainly gapped some of the other 5-15 ranked players, but there are a few outside the Top 4 that could yet make a pitch for year end number 4 along with David. I say number 4 due to the high number of point that Federer is defending over the next month. We shall see what happens anyway.

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