ATP points preview US open 2014

New	Old	Name	Old	Dropped	Gained	New	Move	YTD Old	YTD New
1	1	Djokovic	12,770	1200	720	12,290		7430	8250
2	2	Nadal	10,670	2000	0	8,670		6645	6645
3	3	Federer	7,490	180	720	8,030		6160	6880
4	4	Wawrinka	5,985	720	360	5,625		4365	4725
5	5	Ferrer	4,765	360	90	4,495		3445	3535
6	7	Berdych	4,060	180	360	4,240	+1	3150	3510
7	6	Raonic	4,225	180	180	4,225	-1	3245	3425
8	11	Nishikori	2,690	10	1200	3,870	+3	2835	3675
9	16	Cilic	1,845	0	2000	3,845	+7	2000	4000
10	8	Dimitrov	3,540	10	180	3,710	-2	3155	3335
11	9	Murray	3,150	360	360	3,150	-2	2795	3155
12	10	Tsonga	2,920	0	180	3,100	-2	2375	2555

Some scenarios:

Djokovic will retain #1 ranking.

Federer will go to #2 by winning the tournament (a final loss would put him 160 points behind Nadal). Can't drop below #3.

Wawrinka can't move up. Can fall only if Ferrer makes F or Raonic/Berdych/Dimitrov wins F.

Raonic needs at least to make SF to overtake Ferrer for #5.

Don't expect any changes in 5-8 until the second week.

Murray already dropped below Tsonga to #10. Murray needs at least 4R to catch up with Tsonga, and at least to make F to overtake Dimitrov for #8.


Updated after 3rd round. Only one top 10 seed is out (Ferrer). No changes in ranking positions yet. Winner of QF Murray vs Tsonga will finish higher.

Updated after 4th round. Berdych moves ahead of Raonic for #6, can move ahead of Ferrer for #5 with a QF win. Murray defends last years points and regains #9. A QF win will move him up two spots to #7 in the YTD standings.

Updated after QF. Wawrinka, Berdych and Murray lose, and Murray drops a place due to Nishikori's win. Federer moves above Nadal to #2 in the YTD standings.  Marin Cilic is up to #13, can move to #12 with a SF win. Nishikori can also move up one place with a SF win.

Updated after 1st SF. Nishikori up to #8 (a new personal best). And #5 in the YTD. Djokovic's loss means if Federer beats Cilic (5-0 H2H) and then Nishikori (2-2 H2H) he would top the YTD standings by 10 points   who saw that possibility after the FO?

Updated after 2nd SF. Cilic moves up to #12, and #10 in the YTD.

Final: Nishikori can move to #5, Cilic to #9.

After final. Cilic moves up to #9 (and #5 in the race). He qualifies for the WTF (through the win a slam and finish top 20 rule).

And to look at the ATP Race, Murray could get to #8 spot (or over) only by reaching SF.
He's currently 355pts behind Birdy, but R1 is 10pts already... so QF is not enough

Hopefully Nadal will soon be fit, so we can have an interesting race to WTF - with especially Tsonga and Cilic as dark horses...

Tsonga & Cilic may be dark ponies, but not horses.

Murray should be elevated to WTA till the end of the year, and next AO, back to ATP.

Thanks zaron, interesting stuff. To add to that, the race stats if anyone wants to see 'em:

1. Djokovic: 7,430
2. Nadal: 6,645
3. Federer: 6,160
4. Wawrinka: 4,365
5. Ferrer: 3,445
6. Raonic: 3,245
7. Dimitrov: 3,155
8. Berdych: 3,150
9. Murray: 2,795
10. Nishikori: 2,475
11. Tsonga: 2,375
12. Gulbis: 2,355

Novak needs a final appearance to guarantee topping the race at the end of the USO - a Federer win coupled with Novak SF puts the former a tiny 10 points ahead. Nadal is safe from Stan but is almost certain to drop to #3. A poor tournament here could put Stan back into the 4-8 thresher for the end of the season, but he's surely banked enough points for London by now.

Loads of movement possible elsewhere, we'll see how it goes when the tournament starts. Murray needs a good one, I think, especially with Dimi and Ferrer having decent draws!

How is Berdych 8th? That's TB all over - doesn't do anything but somehow manages to qualify for the WTFs every year!

Winners of Slams, as I understand it, qualify for the WTF as long as they are in the top 20 at the end of the season, so Stan the Man is assured of a place.

The Special Juan wrote:How is Berdych 8th?  That's TB all over - doesn't do anything but somehow manages to qualify for the WTFs every year!

Berdych had a good start to the season:
SF at the Austrailian Open (720 points)
W Rotterdam (500 points)
F Dubai (300 points)
SF Miami (360 points)

sirfredperry wrote:Winners of Slams, as I understand it, qualify for the WTF as long as they are in the top 20 at the end of the season, so Stan the Man is assured of a place.

Yeah, Stan has effectively qualified. I'm not sure if its even mathematically possible for him to be ranked below 20 after paris.

From the rule book:

1) Selection List. The selection list for the event shall be:
a) The top seven (7) players in the Emirates ATP Rankings as of the Monday
after the last ATP World Tour tournament of the calendar year; followed by
b) Up to two (2) Grand Slam winners of that year, in order of their positions,
positioned between eight (8) and twenty (20) in the Emirates ATP Rankings
as of that Monday; followed by
c) Players positioned eight (8) and below in the Emirates ATP Rankings as of
that Monday.

Silver wrote:Thanks zaron, interesting stuff. To add to that, the race stats if anyone wants to see 'em:

1. Djokovic: 7,430
2. Nadal: 6,645
3. Federer: 6,160
4. Wawrinka: 4,365
5. Ferrer: 3,445
6. Raonic: 3,245
7. Dimitrov: 3,155
8. Berdych: 3,150
9. Murray: 2,795
10. Nishikori: 2,475
11. Tsonga: 2,375
12. Gulbis: 2,355

Novak needs a final appearance to guarantee topping the race at the end of the USO - a Federer win coupled with Novak SF puts the former a tiny 10 points ahead. Nadal is safe from Stan but is almost certain to drop to #3. A poor tournament here could put Stan back into the 4-8 thresher for the end of the season, but he's surely banked enough points for London by now.

Loads of movement possible elsewhere, we'll see how it goes when the tournament starts. Murray needs a good one, I think, especially with Dimi and Ferrer having decent draws!

Thanks for this Silver. I've added the YTD points to the table, will update as the tournament goes along.

Nice one zaron - cheers!

sirfredperry wrote:Winners of Slams, as I understand it, qualify for the WTF as long as they are in the top 20 at the end of the season, so Stan the Man is assured of a place.

Right you are, sirfred. I wonder how many instances there have been of slam winners finishing outside the top 8? Few-to-none, probably.

zaron wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:How is Berdych 8th?  That's TB all over - doesn't do anything but somehow manages to qualify for the WTFs every year!

Berdych had a good start to the season:
SF at the Austrailian Open (720 points)
W Rotterdam (500 points)
F Dubai (300 points)
SF Miami (360 points)

Ah that's a fair point, cheers. That's near 2000 points worth so if he'd kept it up who knows what would have happened.

Silver wrote:Nice one zaron - cheers!

sirfredperry wrote:Winners of Slams, as I understand it, qualify for the WTF as long as they are in the top 20 at the end of the season, so Stan the Man is assured of a place.

Right you are, sirfred. I wonder how many instances there have been of slam winners finishing outside the top 8? Few-to-none, probably.

After a quick search it looks like it has happened 3 (three) times in the open era. Back when there were grass and clay court specialists.

2001 Goran Ivanisevic, Won Wimbeldon. Year end ranking #12.
1997 Gustavo Kuerten, Won French. Year end ranking #15
1976 Mark Edmondson, Won Austrailian. Couldn't find year end ranking, but career high of #15, so it would be lower than that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goran_Ivani%C5%A1evi%C4%87
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gustavo_Kuerten
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Edmondson

Silver wrote:Nice one zaron - cheers!

sirfredperry wrote:Winners of Slams, as I understand it, qualify for the WTF as long as they are in the top 20 at the end of the season, so Stan the Man is assured of a place.

Right you are, sirfred. I wonder how many instances there have been of slam winners finishing outside the top 8? Few-to-none, probably.

Petr Korda - ATP #2 (2 Feb 1998) -> #10 (26 Oct 1998).

Richard Krajicek - ATP #7 (19 Aug 1996) -> #9 (04 Nov 1996).

Michael Chang comes close - ATP #6 ( 31 Jul 1989) -> #9 (26 Mar 1990).

Gaudio never made it into Top 10, despite his slam win in 2004, but was #5 in 2005.

One-slam winners probably fall into this category.

There may be others.

The Special Juan wrote:

zaron wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:How is Berdych 8th?  That's TB all over - doesn't do anything but somehow manages to qualify for the WTFs every year!

Berdych had a good start to the season:
SF at the Austrailian Open (720 points)
W Rotterdam (500 points)
F Dubai (300 points)
SF Miami (360 points)

Ah that's a fair point, cheers.  That's near 2000 points worth so if he'd kept it up who knows what would have happened.

Even his Clay season was only just below his peers:

Berdych 870 compared to Federer 790, Murray 990, Raonic 1035, Wawrinka 1110, Ferrer 1260...
(well, Nadal especially, and Djokovic, dominated the Clay: 3870 and 2560 points respectively)

Berdych really went down from the Grass "season" with only 280 pts since Queens - and he entered 5 tournaments!
to compare to Nadal's 180 while skipping US tour, or Fed's 250 at Halle only)

With this trend it's reasonable to think he won't make it to WTF.. But let's see if he wakes up!

biugo wrote:And to look at the ATP Race, Murray could get to #8 spot (or over) only by reaching SF.
He's currently 355pts behind Birdy, but R1 is 10pts already... so QF is not enough

Hopefully Nadal will soon be fit, so we can have an interesting race to WTF - with especially Tsonga and Cilic as dark horses...

you called it biugo (re: Cilic)

I see you've been quietly updating this zaron, many thanks for that.

Are my eyes deceiving me, or does Nishikori now jump to #8? And crucially, #5 in the race.

Silver wrote:I see you've been quietly updating this zaron, many thanks for that.

Are my eyes deceiving me, or does Nishikori now jump to #8? And crucially, #5 in the race.

Thanks. Yes Nishikori is now #8 and #5 in the race. If he wins the final he would be up to #5!

zaron wrote:

biugo wrote:And to look at the ATP Race, Murray could get to #8 spot (or over) only by reaching SF.
He's currently 355pts behind Birdy, but R1 is 10pts already... so QF is not enough

Hopefully Nadal will soon be fit, so we can have an interesting race to WTF - with especially Tsonga and Cilic as dark horses...

you called it biugo (re: Cilic)

And I didn't dare write in Nishikori, as I thought he would not be up to shape...
As I posted on the wrong thread, with some stretch (and if Cilic makes it to the final) we could end up with 4 new faces at the WTF!
With the indoor tournies, I think but not wish that Raonic will make it along with Kei, Daveed and Andy

Kei winning the title will effectively seal the hopes of Andy making the last 8 for WTF.

invisiblecoolers wrote:Kei winning the title will effectively seal the hopes of Andy making the last 8 for WTF.

I guess from Murray's point of view its unfortunate that he made his seeding, but dropped two places in the race due to lower ranked players making the final. But Murray is only 355 points behind Berdych (#7 YTD) and 270 behind Raonic (#8 YTD), so he is a couple of good tournaments from making the WTF. I estimate he would only need another 1000 points or so.

zaron wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:Kei winning the title will effectively seal the hopes of Andy making the last 8 for WTF.

I guess from Murray's point of view its unfortunate that he made his seeding, but dropped two places in the race due to lower ranked players making the final. But Murray is only 355 points behind Berdych (#7 YTD) and 270 behind Raonic (#8 YTD), so he is a couple of good tournaments from making the WTF. I estimate he would only need another 1000 points or so.

Nope, he would need more, coz the chasing pac will also focus on the that exact number.

Btw awesome thread Zaron, you filled the gap left by Cogen and many of the past.

invisiblecoolers wrote:

zaron wrote:

invisiblecoolers wrote:Kei winning the title will effectively seal the hopes of Andy making the last 8 for WTF.

I guess from Murray's point of view its unfortunate that he made his seeding, but dropped two places in the race due to lower ranked players making the final. But Murray is only 355 points behind Berdych (#7 YTD) and 270 behind Raonic (#8 YTD), so he is a couple of good tournaments from making the WTF. I estimate he would only need another 1000 points or so.

Nope, he would need more, coz the chasing pac will also focus on the that exact number.

Btw awesome thread Zaron, you filled the gap left by Cogen and many of the past.

Agreed. Great stuff Zaron, even if it's painful reading for us Murray fans

And now we have the most interesting ATP race in ages!
1) Djoko is probably out of reach for both Federer and Nadal - but who knows what would happen with the baby on the way (some suggested that he would take a paternity leave - but I wouldn't expect it. However, he could miss a tournament, Master or WTF... so there's still a chance for Fedal!)
2) Cilic is qualified thanks to his USO win, so we have 3 or 4 spots left. 3 hoping that Rafa will be back early to focus on winning his 1st WTF
3) 3 spots available, 6 contenders within 500 points!! (and Berdych has an extra opportunity for 130 points with the DC semis - not a given: it's against France)
4) a couple dark horses for good figure: JWT and Gulbis. There are probably too far off, but could have a great run at a Master or just be in the wrong part of the draw for guys #6 to #11...

1 Novak Djokovic 8150
2 Roger Federer 6880
3 Rafael Nadal 6650
4 Stan Wawrinka 4725
5 Marin Cilic 4000
6 Kei Nishikori 3675
7 David Ferrer 3535
8 Tomas Berdych 3510
9 Milos Raonic 3425
10 Grigor Dimitrov 3335
11 Andy Murray 3155
12 JW Tsonga 2555
13 Ernests Gulbis 2400

Fed is in with a shout at the #1 ranking. All he has to do is out gain Djoko by 1300 points to be YE#1. All the surfaces are fast and indoor and there are a lot of points to grab in Asia, Basel, Paris, and the WTF. Still Djoko has pulverized the tour the last two seasons during the indoor season and is himself a 3 time WTF winner a good early run in Asia could put him out of reach.

socal1976 wrote:Fed is in with a shout at the #1 ranking. All he has to do is out gain Djoko by 1300 points to be YE#1. All the surfaces are fast and indoor and there are a lot of points to grab in Asia, Basel, Paris, and the WTF. Still Djoko has pulverized the tour the last two seasons during the indoor season and is himself a 3 time WTF winner a good early run in Asia could put him out of reach.

Big question is how much time does he take off for the birth of his child?

kingraf wrote:

socal1976 wrote:Fed is in with a shout at the #1 ranking. All he has to do is out gain Djoko by 1300 points to be YE#1. All the surfaces are fast and indoor and there are a lot of points to grab in Asia, Basel, Paris, and the WTF. Still Djoko has pulverized the tour the last two seasons during the indoor season and is himself a 3 time WTF winner a good early run in Asia could put him out of reach.

Big question is how much time does he take off for the birth of his child?

Exactly, and unless the birth is due during Paris or WTF, I'd rather see Djoko skip the Beijing and Shanghai - just so he's not 8,000miles away from home. No doubt his wife has plenty of support around her, but considering all he's achieved already I would hope his future daughter/son surpasses any short term tennis event.
In Paris and London, he'd merely be 4hours away from them by jet/helicopter/jetpack/hitch-hiking

It would be too bad though, if Fed or Rafa got YE#1 50% because Djoko preferred to stay home... and the talks about * might be back...

Biguo wrote: "In Paris and London, he'd merely be 4 hours away from them by jet/helicopter/jetpack/hitch-hiking."

Love the thought of Nole on the side of the road, his belongings tied up in a large handkerchief on the end of a long pole, thumbing for a lift.

On a more serious note, the year-end is full of positional possibilities. I can recall the year-end number one spot being decided at the WTF when Gugga pipped Safin in, I think, 2000. Not sure it's happened since.

It would be brilliant to have a tight YE battle at the WTF. Lately, from my point of view, it's been more like a special kind of exho, missing any real drama.

(about that, just had a thought that it could be fun to include to the WTF the Junior #1/#4, for example, to put light on youn talents. But maybe the test would be too harsh and could actually break the youngsters)

It was 2000 yes (I had to check it ) and to do that he also went through Sampras and Agassi (indoor hard). Not bad!

The junior thing is interesting. I don't think they should play against the men but why not have a junior wtf for the top 8 juniors over the year? The schedule could handle the additional matches.

A Junior wTf would be interesting indeed:
- for the tennis fans to have a more visible event to discover new players
- for the sponsors and ATP/ITF to sell something more and spin a better image (still not clear though, how much it would interest the public - but after all we've got boys' slams so why not WTF)
- for the players to secure a better sponsor plan, get a better chance to launch their careers.

But I actually have no idea how the juniors are handled currently. Maybe the exposition they get in the slams is deemed sufficient by the players and sponsors. But I'd like to see more about the Junior #1 Andrei Rublev, but it's mostly because of his name for now!

YE#1 was pretty tight in 2012, decided after Paris I think - not quite the WTF, but it was close enough that we were all schedule-guessing regarding Basel and Paris. And it's telling that it was the first time in a decade that someone hadn't totally dominated the tour, with all four slams split; the same has happened this year, so perhaps we should expect a close one?

socal1976 wrote:Fed is in with a shout at the #1 ranking. All he has to do is out gain Djoko by 1300 points to be YE#1. All the surfaces are fast and indoor and there are a lot of points to grab in Asia, Basel, Paris, and the WTF. Still Djoko has pulverized the tour the last two seasons during the indoor season and is himself a 3 time WTF winner a good early run in Asia could put him out of reach.

Good shout, but I hope this doesn't happen. It'd be an amazing achievement at his age, but a slamless #1 wouldn't feel right, even if it is Federer. I'd sooner see Rafa or Novak take it.

Also, Cilic has more YTD points than ranking points! Very rare to see that. I'd guess it's due to tournament withdrawals from last year, I think they carry the penalty of 'zero' points.