The early final poll

With due respect to Jo Wilfried, the winner of this semi will be hot favourite.

Simple question; who do you really think will win, and how comfortably?

As a bonus incentive, feel free to make a precise prediction of the scoreline. I will evaluate afterwards and award a special prize to the winner. The basis of calculation for the winning prediction will be;

Exact set score first
Closest aggregate game score second
Correct sequence of sets third
Most exactly correct set scores break ties

I'll put entries up onto this main article if anyone's up for it. Go on, put them on the table!

Here's the brave guys so far

For Djokovic:

HM Murdoch 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4
Emancipator 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2
CAS. 6-1, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2
TSJ 6-2, 7-5, 6-4
Julius Marx. 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-6, 20-18
Bogbrush. 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2
homogenised 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6
Craig. 6-4, 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2
Danny. 7-6, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5
bantroban. 7-5, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4
Born Slippy. 6-3, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2
socal. 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3
summerblues 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3
Invisiblecoolers 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3
luciusmann. 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 4-6, 7-5

For Nadal:

lydian. 7-6, 7-5, 7-5
Bit5th. 6-1, 6-3, 6-0
Henman Bill. 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4
JubbaIsle. 7-5, 7-6, 6-4
whocares. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2
Silver. 6-4, 6-7(6), 5-7, 6-2, 7-5
time please. 3-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4
ryan. 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(5)
Haddie. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5
YvonneT. 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3
Chequered. 7-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4
Manojchandra 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5
kingraf. 6-3, 6-2, 6-3

Honourable mention: emancipator has claimed the draw.

Summary

So with 30 votes in, 16 favour Rafa and 14 Djokovic. Emancipator has got the extra pick of the draw should they have to move on to Wimbledon before they finish.

28 people have submitted precise score predictions, 15 for Djokovic and 13 for Nadal. Bit odd versus the poll results, but there you are. Some very similar scores put in, if the results comes out close to those we'll be calling on recounts for the result!

Set 1 Update: NOBODY predicted 6-4 Nadal 1st set.

Set 2 Update: 7 straight sets predictions are down now.

Set 3 Update: lot of predictions dropping out now, and few breadsticks predicted by anyone. Only break in the fifth saw one coming for Rafa.

Set 4 Update: well all the 3 and 4 set predictions are dead in the water. Just the 5 setters left. And Emancipator's draw. Henman Bill looking the standout candidate, but only if Nadal wins the 5th.


Final Score:

Actual Score: 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 9-7. Total games 30:25

Only three people predicted the scores for a 5 set win for Nadal:

Henman Bill. 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 Total Games 27:26
Silver. 6-4, 6-7(6), 5-7, 6-2, 7-5 Total Games 30:25
Haddie. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 Total Games 27:27


WINNER

Despite Haddie achieving the correct order of sets, the rules were set that games count was the secondary measure. On that basis, for getting the EXACT score on both sets AND games, the winner is

Silver

I've been guided by optimism!

Novak in 4.

6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4

Screech in 4.

6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2



emancipator

PS - I have suspended my emancipator powers in making this prediction because it wouldn't be a fair competition otherwise.

Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You missed out the 'draw due to no imminent end in sight' option.

Novak in 4. 6-1 6-7 6-4 6-2

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You think a 7-time RG champion doesn't have a prayer if his opponent "turns up"? That's overstating things a little, don't you think?

Novak in 3. 6-2 7-5 6-4

mthierry wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You think a 7-time RG champion doesn't have a prayer if his opponent "turns up"? That's overstating things a little, don't you think?

If the best of djokovic turns up, Nadal won't win. Nadal is not like he used to be, and Djokovic is a better player now at his best.

Rafa in 5

_homogenised_ wrote:

mthierry wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You think a 7-time RG champion doesn't have a prayer if his opponent "turns up"? That's overstating things a little, don't you think?

If the best of djokovic turns up, Nadal won't win. Nadal is not like he used to be, and Djokovic is a better player now at his best.

I cant make up my mind whether you are being just plain optimistic or wishful thinking !!!
Dont kid yourself that Novak is at his best or have you not been watching the same matches as me.

7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 6-7, 20-18 to Djoko

JuliusHMarx wrote:7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 6-7, 20-18 to Djoko

Oh Lord another late night

_homogenised_ wrote:

mthierry wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You think a 7-time RG champion doesn't have a prayer if his opponent "turns up"? That's overstating things a little, don't you think?

If the best of djokovic turns up, Nadal won't win. Nadal is not like he used to be, and Djokovic is a better player now at his best.

I think the margins are very thin.

In my mind Djokovic is favourite but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Rafa win.

The problem with the caveat 'if the best of X turns up' is that it ignores what the other person can do to prevent the best of X turning up. Nadal is more than capable of taking the match away from Djokovic and thus preventing him from playing his best.

However long it lasts, it's likely to be exhausting and attritional.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:

mthierry wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You think a 7-time RG champion doesn't have a prayer if his opponent "turns up"? That's overstating things a little, don't you think?

If the best of djokovic turns up, Nadal won't win. Nadal is not like he used to be, and Djokovic is a better player now at his best.

I cant make up my mind whether you are being just plain optimistic or wishful thinking !!!
Dont kid yourself that Novak is at his best or have you not been watching the same matches as me.

I saw him beat Nadal 7 times in a row in finals, and take away Nadal's unbeaten run on Clay at Monte Carlo. If I was a Nadal fan, I'd be worrying. Nadal has no B game, and he has no weapon to hurt Djokovic with.

emancipator wrote:You missed out the 'draw due to no imminent end in sight' option.

Dammit, can't modify the poll!

I'll give it to you if it's not done by Wimbledon Day 1.

_homogenised_ wrote:

Haddie-nuff wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:

mthierry wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

You think a 7-time RG champion doesn't have a prayer if his opponent "turns up"? That's overstating things a little, don't you think?

If the best of djokovic turns up, Nadal won't win. Nadal is not like he used to be, and Djokovic is a better player now at his best.

I cant make up my mind whether you are being just plain optimistic or wishful thinking !!!
Dont kid yourself that Novak is at his best or have you not been watching the same matches as me.

I saw him beat Nadal 7 times in a row in finals, and take away Nadal's unbeaten run on Clay at Monte Carlo. If I was a Nadal fan, I'd be worrying. Nadal has no B game, and he has no weapon to hurt Djokovic with.

WHEN have you seen him beat Rafa over FIVE SETS on clay ??? there is, in case you haven´t noticed, a vast difference in beating Rafa over 3 on clay and 5 on clay as Roger Federer will verify.

We'll soon see, won't we? If Soderling can do it, I am pretty sure that Djokovic Mark II can.

Yes .. but you never answered my question I wonder why We are not talking about Soderling.. and as I said this Novak is not as good as the one last year

Your only come back to my stats was "This is 5 sets". No pat on the back from me there haha I can sense your fear though.

Now now, the way to see this settled is to predict the scores. Winner gets to proclaim superior tennis knowledge and be able to declare the others opinions invalid.

It's Djokovic in 3 or 4 I go 4 because you expect Nadal to get at least 1.

_homogenised_ wrote:Your only come back to my stats was "This is 5 sets". No pat on the back from me there haha I can sense your fear though.

He protests too much me thinks

Ok, I'm going to put my view up there.

Djokovic wins, 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2

I'll add I expect the final to be Djokovic v Ferrer.

Djokovic wins 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6

I'm assuming Nadal brings another 10-15% on Friday and will be a lot more aggressive (Stan wasn't great today and Rafa didn't have to be above 80%). In my mind there is more pressure on Novak to win RG...Gencic legacy, complete career slam, etc. At crucial points in the match these things may weigh a little heavily and create enough space to let Nadal in what could be otherwise tight sets. Nadal doesn't 'need' to win, it doesn't add to any records so he can play a little freer.

Rafa wins: 7-6 7-5 7-5

Nadal 6-1 6-3 6-0

Need those straight sets Rafa predictions into the poll guys!

You'll laugh at this. Before I read any of the posts, etc, I clicked on Djokovic in 4 sets (yeah I know heresy for a Nadal fan). I'd not long finished watching Nadal and just felt he was 'ok', Stan handed it on a plate.

But then I had a further think about it and posted as above but it is with the huge caveat that Nadal raises his game 10-15%. I can't undo the vote though.

Nadal's best is the best until his knees give in in 20 years time.

I get your rationale, definitely. For me it comes down that opinion versus Djokovic just getting all over Nadals backhand. It's a toughie.

Bit5th's would shake things up!

lydian wrote:You'll laugh at this. Before I read any of the posts, etc, I clicked on Djokovic in 4 sets (yeah I know heresy for a Nadal fan). I'd not long finished watching Nadal and just felt he was 'ok', Stan handed it on a plate.

But then I had a further think about it and posted as above but it is with the huge caveat that Nadal raises his game 10-15%. I can't undo the vote though.

I was going to vote Djoko in 4, but haven't voted yet. We can vote for each other by proxy - I've voted Rafa in 3 for you

If Tsonga could make his best the best and then dominate the tour then that would shake things up properly but right now no matter how hard the other player hits it, Nadal will stand far enough back to get the ball so Tsonga's best probably can't be the best.

break_in_the_fifth wrote:If Tsonga could make his best the best and then dominate the tour then that would shake things up properly but right now no matter how hard the other player hits it, Nadal will stand far enough back to get the ball so Tsonga's best probably can't be the best.

Er, you are voting on Nadal v DJOKOVIC aren't you? I thought your score was a bit extreme.

If you've voted on the poll you're stuck with that but if you want to change your scoreline I'll take it and change your prediction.

That last post was just replying to your shake things up comment. Nadal winning everything again would just be resuming normal service. I'm happy with my prediction though I want to be really wrong to the extent it's the opposite.

Ok, Djokovic to win just 4 games it is then. I'm pretty sure if its anywhere near that you'll win this thing!

Is the prize getting to dictate everyone's opinion to them and revise certain episodes of tennis history?

break_in_the_fifth wrote:Is the prize getting to dictate everyone's opinion to them and revise certain episodes of tennis history?

I reserve that authority to myself but I'll consider that suggestion.

Djokovic to win in five:- 6-4 4-6 5-7 6-3 6-2.

Ok then I'll just settle for having the final say over eras though I think I've really stuck my neck out with my prediction.

JuliusHMarx wrote:

lydian wrote:You'll laugh at this. Before I read any of the posts, etc, I clicked on Djokovic in 4 sets (yeah I know heresy for a Nadal fan). I'd not long finished watching Nadal and just felt he was 'ok', Stan handed it on a plate.

But then I had a further think about it and posted as above but it is with the huge caveat that Nadal raises his game 10-15%. I can't undo the vote though.

I was going to vote Djoko in 4, but haven't voted yet. We can vote for each other by proxy - I've voted Rafa in 3 for you

Thanks JHM
WB BTW...

Novak in 4 sets. Just think he looks a little better at the moment and he doesn't give a rats ass about the loopy Rafa FH to the BH corner. Plus Rafa's DTLFH hasn't been seen that much.

7/6, 6/2, 4/6, 7/5

I think it's just a guess. I'll go Nadal in 5.

I don't really believe in exact scores guessing, but just for fun since everyone's doing it, I'll say.

6-2 5-7 4-6 7-6 4-6

Going for Nadal in 4
7-5 3-6 6-4 6-2

Nadal
7-5, 7-6, 6-4

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

Well this would be the 5th time Djokovic "turns up" to meet Nadal at Roland Garros. In the four other French Open turn ups, the Djokovic "form" is always promised, yet never really quite makes it. So maybe it's not a lack of "form" that keeps denying Djokovic his coveted title at RG. It might just be, well...Nadal, actually.

antonico wrote:

_homogenised_ wrote:Djokovic in 4. Nadal doesn't have a prayer if he turns up on form. I would not write off tsonga though. No way.

Well this would be the 5th time Djokovic "turns up" to meet Nadal at Roland Garros. In the four other French Open turn ups, the Djokovic "form" is always promised, yet never really quite makes it. So maybe it's not a lack of "form" that keeps denying Djokovic his coveted title at RG. It might just be, well...Nadal, actually.

This isn't the Nadal of last year (or djokovic of yesteryear), and Djokovic is more than capable of beating Nadal at his best on clay. We've seen him do it before. There is no need to get all defensive trying to proclaim that Nadal is invincible. He isn't. Soderling did it, and others will. I, and 10 others believe Nadal will be sent packing. If Djokovic plays his best, he is going to win. He has shown that he can destroy Nadal consistently. Out of all players, Nadal simply hasn't got any answer when Djokovic starts firing.

Isn't it amazing now how so many speak of Nadal needing the help of weather (conditions) to win on clay? It's a reality of everyone, like Federer, as they get older- conditions within even their best surface starts to have a greater factor.. In years past, no Nadal fans or commentators were worried about weather it was damp or hot.... he was just expected to win.