The early final poll

by bogbrush Wed 05 Jun 2013, 5:57 pm

First topic message reminder :

With due respect to Jo Wilfried, the winner of this semi will be hot favourite.

Simple question; who do you really think will win, and how comfortably?

As a bonus incentive, feel free to make a precise prediction of the scoreline. I will evaluate afterwards and award a special prize to the winner. The basis of calculation for the winning prediction will be;

Exact set score first
Closest aggregate game score second
Correct sequence of sets third
Most exactly correct set scores break ties

I'll put entries up onto this main article if anyone's up for it. Go on, put them on the table!

Here's the brave guys so far

For Djokovic:

HM Murdoch 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-4
Emancipator 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 6-2
CAS. 6-1, 6-7, 6-4, 6-2
TSJ 6-2, 7-5, 6-4
Julius Marx. 7-6, 6-7, 6-7, 7-6, 20-18
Bogbrush. 6-4, 7-6, 3-6, 6-2
homogenised 6-2, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6
Craig. 6-4, 4-6, 5-7, 6-3, 6-2
Danny. 7-6, 6-2, 4-6, 7-5
bantroban. 7-5, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4
Born Slippy. 6-3, 7-5, 4-6, 6-2
socal. 6-2, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3
summerblues 6-4, 6-3, 5-7, 6-3
Invisiblecoolers 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 6-3
luciusmann. 7-5, 7-6, 4-6, 4-6, 7-5

For Nadal:

lydian. 7-6, 7-5, 7-5
Bit5th. 6-1, 6-3, 6-0
Henman Bill. 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4
JubbaIsle. 7-5, 7-6, 6-4
whocares. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 6-2
Silver. 6-4, 6-7(6), 5-7, 6-2, 7-5
time please. 3-6, 7-6, 7-5, 6-4
ryan. 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 7-6(5)
Haddie. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5
YvonneT. 6-3, 5-7, 6-4, 6-3
Chequered. 7-6, 3-6, 7-5, 6-4
Manojchandra 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5
kingraf. 6-3, 6-2, 6-3

Honourable mention: emancipator has claimed the draw.

Summary

So with 30 votes in, 16 favour Rafa and 14 Djokovic. Emancipator has got the extra pick of the draw should they have to move on to Wimbledon before they finish.

28 people have submitted precise score predictions, 15 for Djokovic and 13 for Nadal. Bit odd versus the poll results, but there you are. Some very similar scores put in, if the results comes out close to those we'll be calling on recounts for the result!

Set 1 Update: NOBODY predicted 6-4 Nadal 1st set.

Set 2 Update: 7 straight sets predictions are down now.

Set 3 Update: lot of predictions dropping out now, and few breadsticks predicted by anyone. Only break in the fifth saw one coming for Rafa.

Set 4 Update: well all the 3 and 4 set predictions are dead in the water. Just the 5 setters left. And Emancipator's draw. Henman Bill looking the standout candidate, but only if Nadal wins the 5th.

Final Score:

Actual Score: 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 9-7. Total games 30:25

Only three people predicted the scores for a 5 set win for Nadal:

Henman Bill. 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4 Total Games 27:26
Silver. 6-4, 6-7(6), 5-7, 6-2, 7-5 Total Games 30:25
Haddie. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5 Total Games 27:27

WINNER

Despite Haddie achieving the correct order of sets, the rules were set that games count was the secondary measure. On that basis, for getting the EXACT score on both sets AND games, the winner is

Bubbly

Silver Bubbly

by summerblues Fri 07 Jun 2013, 4:57 am

I am not even a fan of either guy but I am taking a day off tomorrow just to watch the semi(s). In some sense, this is the match I have been waiting for for the last two years. In 2011, Roger spoiled the party (not that I mind) and last year I never thought Nole was playing well enough on clay to really challenge Rafa.

I expect Nole to win, in fact to win relatively easily (exhausting rallies notwithstanding). No matter how I think about it I cannot see how Rafa can win if Nole plays reasonably well - I just think Nole holds all the cards.

But then I remember that Rafa has won this thing seven times, while Nole is at zero, and that makes me wonder whether I am just crazy in my assessment.

So, I am now waiting for the moment of truth, so to speak. Will it really be easy(ish) for Nole, or am I all wrong?

by **laverfan** Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:19 am

Manojchandra wrote:Whatever the weather, Nadal in 4. 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.

Very long time (a year ~) since I saw this name. Very nice to see old 606 names. Cool

by **laverfan** Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:22 am

@SB... hope Nadal-Djokovic is a competitive match. Either one's facile victory will be anticlimactic @RG 2013. May the better player win.

by banbrotam Fri 07 Jun 2013, 6:11 am

bogbrush wrote:
banbrotam wrote:Novak 7-5, 6-4, 6-1, 6-4
Please God don't let them make it best of 7.

What an oaf picard

And with myself supposed to be good at Maths!!

My predication is 7-5, 4-6, 6-1, 6-4 to Novak

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:09 am

invisiblecoolers wrote:
Manojchandra wrote:Whatever the weather, Nadal in 4. 7-5, 4-6, 6-4, 7-5.

I remember you in 606 as a Federer fan, am I right? if so its good to see somebody cheering the favourite's main rival, do you have that much confidence in Nadal? don't you think all good things do come to an end? the crazy FO streak of Rafa should come to an end some time, so let it be tomorrow

Why ic ?? If it were Fed playing to win another Wimbledon you and others would not be saying its time for his wins to come to any end... Go Rafa Im greedy you win another RG I dont care how many you get.
Of course all things come to and end and 9 mths ago I did.. I thought Rafa was finished I was wrong and so were many others.... he has come so far this would be the icing on the cake and he deserves it. Fingers Crossed

The early final poll - Page 4 3933776953

by time please Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:22 am

I'm not going to be able to watch today because travelling, so I just wish you all a good day's sport and happy viewing!

may the best man win!

by Jahu Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:34 am

Rafa has to take this, and defend his clay court honors.

by Silver Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:44 am

I'm going to miss it too; paying the price for taking a day out to watch Fed get massacred the other day. On the plus side, I get to attend a conference - hooray, how exciting Wink

Hope it's a good match, happy viewing 606!

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:46 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:
HM Murdoch wrote:Roll on tomorrow!

I'd rather roll on Sharapova

The early final poll - Page 4 Kenneth-Williams

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:47 am

Have good days travelling silver and TP, I timed my foreign trips for next week and week after (oh hang on, that's Queens/Halle...oh well). I'll be in the office today...damn you ITV player, I just know I'll get no work done this afternoon Laugh

"Ohhhhh matron" HMM!!!! Very Happy

8:47 and the tension like the mercury and air pressure in Paris is rising! Shocked

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 8:52 am

For some reason this song about Paris (La Seine) is rattling through my noggin'...saw it in a film I watched with the kids...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejdot28Z3ow (dang, dang, dang...oh love that bass guitar!)

PS. my name is not Lydian for nothing...

by kingraf Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:00 am

I put a sel-imposed exile on myself, from the tennis section, but this match is too big. My news office will all but come to a stop this afternoon (unless, of course, the world ends, or someone important has been assassinated. The wait is almost physically unbearable. It feels like you're waiting for a heavyweight clash. So skilled are these two that it might end in a quick KO either way if the other isn't all there, but they both have the gas to go 15 rounds. I am picking Nadal in three. 6-3 6-2 6-2. Wouldn't suprise me if it goes the other way for Djokovic in three though.

I don't personally think Djokovic winning the Career Grand Slam somehow devalues the achievement, due to to many contemporaries achieving it. Remember, Jimmy Connors could have won it, had he given RG more respect (or they him). Had Borg won just one of his USO finals, you can be sure he would have gone to Australia and done what was required, same can be said of McEnroe with RG. As well as Lendl having come very close. So prior to power tennis, quite a few guys could have achieved it but failed for differing reasons.

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:00 am

lydian wrote:PS. my name is not Lydian for nothing...

Partial to a raised 4th, are you?

by **JuliusHMarx** Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:20 am

HM Murdoch wrote:
lydian wrote:PS. my name is not Lydian for nothing...
Partial to a raised 4th, are you?

I'll see your 4th and raise you a 5th

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:26 am

JuliusHMarx wrote:
HM Murdoch wrote:
lydian wrote:PS. my name is not Lydian for nothing...
Partial to a raised 4th, are you?

I'll see your 4th and raise you a 5th

How very augmented of you.

by CaledonianCraig Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:34 am

I will miss the semi as I will be working but am pondering who, exactly, is the pressure most on?

First instinct says Nadal as he is seven times French Open champion and is largely seen as unbeatable at Roland Garos. However, will it really be so earth-shattering if you consider that he has been out for so long due to injury? He may see himself as the underdog and may be inwardly very happy at how his comeback has gone and see anything from now as a bonus.

Djokovic has his own pressures and they may be greater. He will realise that Nadal is still finding his way back so may never have a better chance to beat Nadal at Roland Garos. His form has been a little patchy of late and another defeat here may add another blow to his confidence. A defeat and he can'r really excuse it away.

I would say the pressure is more on the world No.1 than Rafael Nadal.

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:46 am

HM Murdoch wrote:
JuliusHMarx wrote:
HM Murdoch wrote:
lydian wrote:PS. my name is not Lydian for nothing...
Partial to a raised 4th, are you?

I'll see your 4th and raise you a 5th
How very augmented of you.

lol...you should be barre-d for jokes like that!

Have to say I'm all of a highly strung tremolo about today's match, should be plenty of slides and power strokes on display, might be a case of who can best transpose their pre-match strategy to strike the right chord and pull-off a famous victory! Indeed the guy who frets the least, finds the right rhythm to sustain a solid tempo and as a result can lead the ralleys should win.

Unfortunately Federer didn't make it to complete the triad but am sure he'll be enjoying the action and voicing his opinion beforehand in making his pick. Tennis on this scale is what its all about...

by Josiah Maiestas Fri 07 Jun 2013, 9:57 am

Nadal of 2008 would be too much for this Djokovic, but this Nadal does have more flaws and Novak is alot better at rallying than any other opponent put against Nadal. It may be 5 sets.

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:05 am

Agree, 2013 Nadal still looks a half beat slow to me, hopefully he hits the right cadence so his feet and strokes are in harmony rather than diminished.

Arrgghhh, its getting to me!
The early final poll - Page 4 George-lynch-skull-n-bones

The early final poll - Page 4 George-lynch-skull-n-bones

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:05 am

Lydian, at the root of the matter, being dominant is what they are aiming for. Sub-dominant won't be enough.

The weather may be a minor issue but I don't expect any result to be diminished as Novak aims for his seventh major.

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:07 am

Is that George "Lynch Mob" Lynch?

I haven't seen a pic of him in years! I barely recognise him with a sensible hair cut!

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:15 am

You could be right there HMM...I'm senza that it could be Nadal's day but clay is also Novak's forte.
Improvisation will be key!

Indeed it is HMM...well spotted. He's still a complete beast on the axe, infact I'd call him Mr Scary Wink

by banbrotam Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:24 am

I'd not seen this before

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nDdtvbu8hw

And Courier still calls him Joke - ovitch picard

I do like Jim's commentary though

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:30 am

Banbro, I remember watching that at the time. Poor old Jim, he does struggle!

I now want a sequel with Gilles Simon.

"It's See-mon. Not Sam-own".

Or for the players to start calling him Jim Cor-ree-ay.

by banbrotam Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:33 am

It's almost as hilarious as those National newsreaders / traffic announcers etc - who hilariously get a host of Yorkshire towns wrong

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:36 am

That's understandable banbrotam....who would know to pronounce your very own "Sow-er-by" as "Sorby" Wink

I want to hear Jim pronounce Leicester, Gloucester, Bicester and Towcester!

Oh...and Slaithwaite of course! Laugh

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:42 am

He pronounces RÀFA` NÀDÀL Rahfah Nahdahl .. A is never pronounced AH in Spain its bloomin irritating.

by FedsFan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:43 am

Nadal playing at 60% can still win a match especially on clay which is something Djokovic is probably aware of. Last year Djoko took a big lead in the first set and he ended up losing it. He just could not find a first serve. Whether it was nerves or just poor play I really do not know. If he gets a lead in the first set he needs to close it out reverting pressure back on Nadal.

Best of 3 sets can be over in a flash which is why Novak has had success vs Nadal. To me serve is key when playing Nadal. Smart serving to prevent a return and avoid long rallies. I know Djoko can keep up with Nadal but there comes a point when Nadal's persistence pays off forcing his opponent to either pull the trigger in a desperate attempt to get a winner resulting in an error or he just moves opponents until he has the whole court to place his winner.

I believe Nadal has peaked in the last two matches whereas Djoko has yet to do so. He's been doing okay but has not had one of those brilliant matches yet. He and his fans are perhaps hoping this will be the one.

by lydian Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:46 am

Good points except I don't agree Nadal has peaked, not by a long chalk. I expect an increase of another 1-2 gears today. Same for Djokeaveetch.

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 10:49 am

FedsFan wrote:Nadal playing at 60% can still win a match especially on clay which is something Djokovic is probably aware of. Last year Djoko took a big lead in the first set and he ended up losing it. He just could not find a first serve. Whether it was nerves or just poor play I really do not know. If he gets a lead in the first set he needs to close it out reverting pressure back on Nadal.

Best of 3 sets can be over in a flash which is why Novak has had success vs Nadal. To me serve is key when playing Nadal. Smart serving to prevent a return and avoid long rallies. I know Djoko can keep up with Nadal but there comes a point when Nadal's persistence pays off forcing his opponent to either pull the trigger in a desperate attempt to get a winner resulting in an error or he just moves opponents until he has the whole court to place his winner.

I believe Nadal has peaked in the last two matches whereas Djoko has yet to do so. He's been doing okay but has not had one of those brilliant matches yet. He and his fans are perhaps hoping this will be the on

Certainly I do not agree that Nadal has peaked... far from it.. he is now on a roll.. the deeper he goes into this tournament the better he gets. So there is little cold comfort there methinks. That in the past FF has always been the case. And your right certainly Novak has not been at his best. So it is all down to the day.
I would not put my money on either of them

by HM Murdock Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:01 am

FedsFan wrote: Last year Djoko took a big lead in the first set and he ended up losing it. He just could not find a first serve. Whether it was nerves or just poor play I really do not know. If he gets a lead in the first set he needs to close it out reverting pressure back on Nadal.

You're right about his poor serving but Novak never had the lead in the first set.

by FedsFan Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:07 am

HM Murdoch wrote:
FedsFan wrote: Last year Djoko took a big lead in the first set and he ended up losing it. He just could not find a first serve. Whether it was nerves or just poor play I really do not know. If he gets a lead in the first set he needs to close it out reverting pressure back on Nadal.
You're right about his poor serving but Novak never had the lead in the first set.

Beg your pardon, my error. I meant he had those 3 successive games to level and despite serving for a 4-3 lead he went to pieces again. Would it be a good tactic to put Nadal to serve first if he gets the chance? I know Nadal almost always elects to receive and usually gets the break.

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:18 am

I think Rafa elects to receive because he is such a notoriously slow starter.. that first game helps him settle and if he wins it its a bonus but if not he has lost nothing (if any of that makes sense). The psychology behind that too is that his opponent is also nervous so he is in a no lose situation.

by banbrotam Fri 07 Jun 2013, 11:42 am

lydian wrote:That's understandable banbrotam....who would know to pronounce your very own "Sow-er-by" as "Sorby"

I want to hear Jim pronounce Leicester, Gloucester, Bicester and Towcester!

Oh...and Slaithwaite of course!

Ironically and i does show how awkward us Yorkies are Very Happy

there is a place called Sowerby, which is next door to Sowerby Bridge, but pronounced "Sorby"

Poor Jim would have no chance as the other half of West Yorkshire constantly get it wrong Laugh

And let's not even discuss the other Barnsley suburbs of Cudworth and Dodworth chin

Back to the Tennis and rapid Run

by banbrotam Fri 07 Jun 2013, 1:13 pm

That's me knackered Ok!

by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:41 pm

For Nadal:

Henman Bill. 2-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 6-4
Silver. 6-4, 6-7(6), 5-7, 6-2, 7-5
Haddie. 7-5, 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 7-5

Reality: 6-4 3-6 6-1 6-7 9-7
_______________________

Three of us had Nadal in 5.

I also had Djokovic to win the 4th set TB and force a 5th in doing so. Pretty decent!

But Haddie not only predicted Nadal in 5 but guessed the correct order of the sets! As well as a bang on 2nd set score and close ish on other sets.

You know I did actually think it might be sometthing like 8-6 or 9-7 or 10-8 but then I realised 6-4 has a better chance of getting it dead on, so I went for that.

That was acctually a good bit of fun despite the fact that I normally mock predicting the exact score. Or maybe I just said that as I did well.

by Silver Fri 07 Jun 2013, 5:44 pm

So close! My score started off well, but it wasn't to be. Second (or third) to Haddie is no shame though. Well done Haddie and HB clap

Good fun this, we should all try it again at the next big match Smile

I've only just got back, but what an epic. I'll catch up on the threads soon, well done Rafa!

by bogbrush Fri 07 Jun 2013, 6:31 pm

You concede too quickly Silver. According to the rules as posted you are the winner.

Check the article

Well played, honourable mentions to Bill and Haddie (who I imagine couldn't care less about losing this now!).

by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 6:32 pm

No body got it perfect right, that was so close.

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 6:36 pm

bogbrush wrote:You concede too quickly Silver. According to the rules as posted you are the winner.

Check the article

Well played, honourable mentions to Bill and Haddie (who I imagine couldn't care less about losing this now!).

No BB I dont care Im surprised I got that close Im totally useless at predictions that is why I never gamble
Hey Ho Silver clap

by Silver Fri 07 Jun 2013, 6:52 pm

bogbrush wrote:You concede too quickly Silver. According to the rules as posted you are the winner.

Check the article

Well played, honourable mentions to Bill and Haddie (who I imagine couldn't care less about losing this now!).

Thanks BB, should've reread the rules. Exact number of sets and games, a genuine fluke if there ever was one! It won't stop me claiming bragging rights until Wimbledon, though Whistle

Cheers Haddie, you must be pleased as punch with the result today Hug

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 6:55 pm

I am.. albeit Ill confess I could not watch the final set ..I went and sat in the garden with a G & T and when I came in and found he had one I watched the replay... God arn´t I a wimp ??!! Rolling Eyes

by socal1976 Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:03 pm

Congratulations to Nadal and his fans, he proved again why he is the greatest clay courter ever. Novak should have won in the 5th set, but hey Nadal turned it up a notch at the perfect time so hats off to him. Novak was oddly flat up till the middle of the match, I think the wind was effecting his serve a bit as he stopped his service motion a bunch of times. Still no excuses he should have done better up a break in the fifth, but he botched a couple of overheads that probably cost him the match. I still don't know why he has such trouble with that shot, but oh well no one is perfect. Nadal played great and made some gets that were truly mind boggling and I think that was part of the frustration djokovic finally couldn't deal with. In particular in the early part of the match I was impressed with Nadal's serve, and Nadal's supposedly deficient backhand was spectacular today.

by Haddie-nuff Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:12 pm

Thank you Socal

by invisiblecoolers Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:21 pm

Congrats Silver, seems like a double whammy with win in PG as well. clap

by Henman Bill Fri 07 Jun 2013, 7:25 pm

"With due respect to Jo Wilfried, the winner of this semi will be hot favourite."

You forgot the due respect to David Ferrer, grand slam finalist.

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