The Ashes: 1st Test, Trent Bridge

England:
Alastair Cook*, Joe Root, Jonathan Trott, Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Jonny Bairstow,
Matt Prior†, Stuart Broad, Graeme Swann, Steven Finn, James Anderson

Australia:
Shane Watson, Chris Rogers, Ed Cowan, Michael Clarke*, Steve Smith, Phil Hughes,
Brad Haddin†, Peter Siddle, Mitchell Starc, James Pattinson, Ashton Agar

So lead of 92 runs at lunch on the 3rd day. 4 wickets down.

Australia wouldn't want to be chasing too much over 200 with the wicket starting to crumble and behave unpredictably.
Tbh, 150-175 runs won't be any easy chase...

I'd be tempted to put Swann in after Prior so that if he does get out, he can rest up before bowling 40 straight overs.

Session even... Game still dead even
Day 1 Session 1 - even session 2 - Australia
Session 3 - England

Day 2 session 1 - Eng
Day 2 session 2 - Aus
Day 2 session 3 - even

Day 3 session 1 - even.

Its on a knife edge

Any lead of 150 plus is going to lead to a bloody tense chase. Cracking Test Match.

Kingraf

I'd actually say it was Australia's session - got the two superstar batsmen out and have us in a bit of a hole at effectively 90-odd for 4.

Not by any stretch an overwhelmingly strong position, but using Boycott's old adage of adding two quick wickets, you could see Aus only having to chase 150ish.

We need Bell, Bairstow and Prior to add at least another 120-150 to get us back ahead of the game. Doable, but given recent form I'm far from convinced it will happen.

Of course, the way this game has gone so far, what will probably happen is we'll lose the three remaining batsmen quickly then Broad and Swann will counter with a 150 run partnership, we'll knock over the Aussie top order quickly and then struggle with Starc and Siddle...

BBC reckoning 250 is absolute minimum. Have to agree as there is so much time left.

in truth you probably need 400 as Agar will add a ton to whatever the rest get.

DH - I definitely think Oz are in the ascendency, but thats from a momentum, POV, not score board wise. Pretty even now. Its kind of like a football team coming back from 2-0 down to 3-3, they have the momentum, but its even

Probably Australia's session , though only just. But since they were ahead at the start of the day they are still on top.

McGrath said runs are not easy to get on this but neither are wickets...reckon he is right. Australia have done well to keep things fairly tight , and eventually batsmen have made mistakes...unfortunately this approach won't work for England if they have only a slender lead !
Will need an Anderson charge I think if England are to defend a low score...of course if Broad were back to full fitness things would look better , but that is a big if.

Trebs

Of course the other consideration linked to time is that the wicket will continue to evolve and wear over the next day or so - chasing 200 on the 3rd evening pitch is a different matter from chasing the same on a 5th day pitch. Means England have to set a bigger target - agree that anything below 250 and you'd make the Aussies strong favourites.

This game is 80-20 Aussie at the moment.

if/when they go 1-0 , will that shatter englands confidence after being over-rated coming into it?

or maybe people will then expect them to whitewashed and the pressure will be off a bit?

Oh trebs... really. This is getting tiresome, mate!  

(we'll both be in the nuthouse soon...)

LB

Trebs is just the antidote to Duty's OTT optimism.

You are forgetting that we're English and have to put up with a climate of perpetual drizzle for 10 months a year - bound to create a streak of pessimism that doesn't exist when you live a few minutes walk from Bondi... 

Yes, I know DH.
The thing is I have been feeling more & more 'English-of-old' these last few years. It's a terrible disease. Have to hand it to Duty though... he deserves a medal of some sort. Or the The Order of Optimism?

if it's less than 300......Aus will win easily
if it's more than 350.....Eng will surely win

in between is 50-50
remember Broad may not bowl or at best roll his arm

I find I am usually pessimistic during the first Test of a series...possibly because England just about never win them  

Seem to be more so than usual this time though ...I have decided it must be down to an alcohol deficiency.

Weekend is here so can do something about that...

The Aussies won't get past 200 in their 2nd innings.

trebellbobaggins wrote:This game is 80-20 Aussie at the moment.

if/when they go 1-0 , will that shatter englands confidence after being over-rated coming into it?

or maybe people will then expect them to whitewashed and the pressure will be off a bit?

I don't think so..It is 45-55 in favor of Australia...157-4. Though still the game in hanging between both the teams. Bell and Barishtow last hope for england. A target above 200 will surely trouble Australia.

Talk about the perfect opportunity for Bell/Bairstow...

Duty is an absolute superstar. Cheerleader par excellence. Probably eats an English breakfast every day, in his Union Jack boxers, watching replays of the '66 world cup...

KP_fan wrote:if it's less than 300......Aus will win easily
if it's more than 350.....Eng will surely win

in between is 50-50
remember Broad may not bowl or at best roll his arm

Well a score with 225+ will also trouble Aussies, though I will be cherished If Australia wins.

Linebreaker wrote:Oh trebs... really. This is getting tiresome, mate!  

(we'll both be in the nuthouse soon...)

i'm already in there. posting from my comfy well insulated cell as we speak.

dummy_half wrote:LB

Trebs is just the antidote to Duty's OTT optimism.

You are forgetting that we're English and have to put up with a climate of perpetual drizzle for 10 months a year - bound to create a streak of pessimism that doesn't exist when you live a few minutes walk from Bondi... 

indeed, I live a short walk from the North coast of Cornwall. if the weather was like this all year i'd be dripping in serotonin and good feeling.

Scrumpy wrote:The Aussies won't get past 200 in their 2nd innings.

are you planning to kidnap Agar and get him drunk on Scrumpy?

KP_fan wrote:if it's less than 300......Aus will win easily
if it's more than 350.....Eng will surely win

in between is 50-50
remember Broad may not bowl or at best roll his arm

Well if that is right , KP fan , Australia has it in the bag because there is practically no chance of England making over 365 from here.

Not sure Broad will just roll his arm over though ...he was in the mid eighties when he bowled yesterday , and delivered much better short stuff than Finn , so one might hope he'll be close to normal by the time he has to bowl (hopefully tomorrow)

After the last two days I would be reluctant to make any predictions as to what might happen in the fourth innings.

kingraf wrote:Duty is an absolute superstar. Cheerleader par excellence. Probably eats an English breakfast every day, in his Union Jack boxers, watching replays of the '66 world cup...        

and a bloody nice bloke too.

trebellbobaggins wrote:

Linebreaker wrote:Oh trebs... really. This is getting tiresome, mate!  

(we'll both be in the nuthouse soon...)

i'm already in there.  posting from my comfy well insulated cell as we speak.

Trebs, the van arrived to pick me up but I hid in the cupboards...

Jonny was searching a bit outside off that last over. Sidds needs to find that edge.

amazing how one player can turn a game.

take young Agars wonder innings out of this and eng would be considered to be doing ok.

I think we might need to do a "Shergar" to him if we are to stand a chance in the series.

Siddle has been quite sparingly bowled in this innings...bit strange after his first innings heroics.

Perhaps he will take the new ball ?

I take it back.  

Take off the additional 140 runs they put on after his stumping, and England are cruising this, even forgetting Trott's 50/50 decision.

Bell saved by hawk-eye there... close call but good review.

About time we had a bit of luck with the reviews, after Agar's non-stumping and Trott's dismissal.

Watson got the prize.but! but! but1 .... Dharmesena thinks it was hitting but overturned by third umpire. Bell survived..

trebellbobaggins wrote:amazing how one player can turn a game.

take young Agars wonder innings out of this and eng would be considered to be doing ok.

I think we might need to do a "Shergar" to him if we are to stand a chance in the series.

Well you're right there , trebs. Without the Agar onslaught Australia would have been well short on first innings , and England would be cruising towards a win...then again if Anderson hadn't ripped out the heart of the Australian batting they may have taken a grip before he came to the crease ...

In truth this game is still pretty tight ...this new ball coming up might have a big say one way or t'other

Great review by Bell ! Thought that was going to be out ...

Bloody hell that looked out even in slow motion. Was already giving Bell sh!t both for getting out and a Broadesque review.

On another note, Nasser Hussein is a just brilliant commentator/pundit. Witty and intelligent in equal dose. I love it when he's giving Botham stick.

Oh crap bag.......

Still amazingly close through 2.5 days

...swings , roundabouts...

Bell survives and now Bairstow is a goner ...two for Agar.

England just can't get a serious partnership going ...even a 200 lead looks a long way off.

Agar's got his second wicket. Barishtow gone for 15...England 107-5. One of the most trusted batsman is on the crease now. Prior and bell need to put a 100 more without loosing their wicket.

Ohhhhhh. What a match..

Compton for Barishtow?
Root to drop down the order?

Scrumpy wrote:Compton for Barishtow?
Root to drop down the order?

It makes more sense based on the viewing in this test, but unfortunately the decision has already been made, just have to go with it now...

Theres only one Agar.
Theres only one AGAR

AGAR AGAR AGAR

The drunken hymn writes itself.....

Bairstow..  why? underperforms in every game and adds nothing.

game over.

Drop Compton, move Root up and carry him?  nonsense.

this looks to have set the tone. 3-1 aussie at least. has to be.

Thats tosh Trebs and you know it.

Scrumpy wrote:Compton for Barishtow?
Root to drop down the order?

Well looking here in this test, I finds Basishtow better than Root. And yup, Compton should open in the next match. Rest all depend on selectors.

We found him in a diaper
Australia's newest sniper
Cutting through the poms like a Dagger
Theres only one Ashton Agar!!

oh come on knee jerk- root stays on top. he had a 30 first innings- thrid highest score and wasnt even out this innings..

Root will come good- V good

kingraf wrote:We found him in a diaper
Australia's newest sniper
Cutting through the poms like a Dagger
Theres only one Ashton Agar!!

 

England lead by 111...  

Do any of you believe in all that? Aus '87', etc?