THE Open Championship 2013

In response to PD's plea, here's my effort at a thread for this week's ET event, which just happens to be the most important event on that particular calendar, if not in the world of golf as a whole. I'll try to keep it factual, other than the 'ones to watch' at the end.

The 142nd Open Championship gets underway this week at Muirfield, just outside Edinburgh. Defending champion, in both respects, is Ernie Els, the big South African having followed up his playoff win at Muirfield in 2002 with last year's surprise victory at Lytham.

Els has quite a record in this event. He missed the cut on debut in 1989, but has played every year since 1992, recording 2 wins, 3 runner-up positions and a further 7 top tens. He's missed the cut just twice in that run, in 2010 when so many were caught out by the weather on the Friday at St. Andrews, and again in poor conditions at RSG the following year. In that context, his win last year is even more remarkable. Other notable stats for the Big Easy at the oldest major include twice recording 4 rounds in the 60s without winning, in 1993 and 2004 (brownie points on offer for naming the only other player to do this and the year), finishing under par most often since 1963 alongside two other huge names in the recent history of the Open (easy to guess who so I'd like the number of times too please), and he edges both of them on overall number of rounds under 70, 39 to their 37 and 33. Interestingly they both have more rounds under par than Ernie, which I suppose means when he's good he's very good. Testament to that would be his 29 on the front 9 in the second round at Muirfield in 2002, and his seven consecutive rounds under 70 in 1993-4.

Muirfield as a venue commands, it seems, a great deal of respect from the players even though the male only status of the Honourable Company of Edinburgh Golfers as a club casts something of a shadow over an otherwise excellent location for this great championship. I have no intention of expressing an opinion on that particular issue, not least because this week has nothing to do with the membership of the club and everything to do with the best players in the world. At 7,192 yards it's no beast, and indeed may even be considered short these days, even though they've added some 158 yards this time around. That won't detract from the substantial test that it's bound to provide, the rough at least providing some defence even if the weather doesn't look like it's going to. It's not an in and out type links, rather the front 9 loops clockwise around the anti-clockwise homeward 9. Par is 71, with 3 par 5s (5,9,17) and 4 par 3 holes (4,7,13,16). The prevailing wind will help on 5 and 17, so look for those holes to be eagle opportunities, while 9 plays back into it and at over 550 yards will be out of reach for most if there's any kind of breeze. 2, 3 and 11 are par 4s under 400 yards and ought to offer birdie opportunities, especially since the wind is likely to be helping on those holes. With the exception of the 4th, the par 3s are all around 180-190 yards, so should be no more than a mid-iron for most of the field.  

Previous champions here have included some of the game's true greats - Els, Faldo of course, twice, as well as Nicklaus, Watson, Trevino, Player and Cotton. Nobody has won the Open here by default. Faldo's 18 pars to edge out Azinger in 1987 will be part of Open Championship folk lore for centuries, even though his finish here in 1992 was arguably more inspired following his mid-round stumble which let John Cook have a sniff of victory.

Perhaps important to note is that although we look back on those last 7 Muirfield winners as greats of the game, for some of them victory here was their first in the Open (2 names?) or indeed in a major championship of any sort (another 2?). As such, could this be the first of many Opens for a new great (Rory, Justin, Adam?)

Victory in Scotland this week for Phil Mickelson has to mean he should be considered as another great player with the potential to win at Muirfield, although the fairways there will surely look like tiny islands in a sea of rough in relation to the giant swathes of short grass that the contenders at Castle Stuart were faced with this past week. So who else could be lifting the claret jug next Sunday?

Rory McIlroy - the world no. 2 hasn't given anybody any reason to suspect he'll be able to turn his form so far this season around, and this isn't his favourite event on the calendar. If the weather remains as calm as forecast that may change, but there will surely be too many genuine contenders for Rory to sneak up on the rails and pinch this one?

Tiger Woods - we've not seen numero uno since his latest injury, to his left elbow, forced him to miss his own tournament at Congressional. He's apparently 'full go' for the Open, albeit recognising that staying out of the rough will be an even better idea than usual! The length, or lack of it, of the course means he can afford to leave the driver in the bag most of the time and still have scoring opportunities but as with Rory, there are too many other serious contenders to think that Woods might win here when he was only able to muster a T28 here last time, which included a very wet, windy and rough-strewn third round 81.  

Ernie Els - the defending champion has to be a very serious contender this week, his excellent Open record combining with some pretty good recent form including of course victory in Germany 3 weeks ago. With no wind to blow him off course as he wedges his belly putter into place, you have to think Els will be in the mix next Sunday.

Graeme McDowell - another recent winner, and the all or nothing man of 2013. To mix missed cuts and wins the way GMac has done of late suggests huge mental strength, something that Muirfield Open champions have in common.

Lee Westwood - as some of you may know I'm a big fan of Lee's, but I don't really know why. Ordinarily my pessimistic, cynical nature would predict a good start to the tournament for Lee only to whimper out of contention on Friday and Saturday to the point where he hasn't got a realistic chance of winning on Sunday. However, he took the decision to miss the French Open in order to be better rested for the Open, and I'm hoping that will pay off. He's straight enough to win, especially if his recently improved short game holds out, but whether he has the mental strength I mentioned above remains to be seen!

Justin Rose - mental strength can't be questioned following that tremendous finish at Merion, and he certainly has the game to win at Muirfield. He doesn't have a great record in the Open though, his famous 4th place as an amateur in 1998 at Birkdale comfortably his best finish. 12th in 2007 and 13th in 2009 are his best pro finishes. Given his exertions at Merion, I think victory here would be asking too much.

Adam Scott - Justin's big pal and the other major champion of 2013 so far should arguably be defending champion this week. I was at Lytham to witness his demise on the Sunday, and it was pretty clear as he played the 18th that he wasn't in a good place mentally. Much like Rory he bounced back from throwing away a major by winning one very soon after, but I just have a feeling that also like Rory the one that got away will take a bit longer to finally reel in. Rory will most likely win the Masters one day, just as Adam will probably win an Open, but I fear the memories will still be too fresh for the Aussie this week.

All in all then, GMac, Ernie or Lee. All are around 25/1. If you want an outside bet; Brooks Koepke will return you 5 times as much as those big names - he's had a phenomenal year on the Challenge tour, graduating to the main ET via 3 wins before July and he played pretty well at Castle Stuart this week.

With the weather promising to be very pleasant, the course is likely to be hard and running, with the rough therefore coming more into play. Muirfield will doubtless produce a fantastic tournament and another excellent golfer will be announced by Peter Dawson around 7pm next Sunday as 'winner of the gold medal and champion golfer for the year'.

Any other isntances of a player being both defending champion and defending course champion?

A crazy stat regarding GMAC.......7 of his 9 wins have been on PAR 71s and the par this week is 71.....

Great work Smithers, Thanks.

I like Els and Scott and a perverse part of me thinks Harrington could torture us again - in a good way hopefully. And I'd love to see another Major flourish by Cabrera.

Not sure about the Americans - normally you'd feel Muirfield could be suited to Mahan, but he's an expectant father and presumably distracted. Woods's fitness on trust presumably.

Hoping most of all for a great Championship.

ryan86 wrote:Any other isntances of a player being both defending champion and defending course champion?

James Braid, a long time ago.

Strangely enough, it was Muirfield. He went there as defending champion, and the last winner at Muirfield. And - guess what - he won again.

And twelve years later he built the Kings and Queens courses at Gleneagles, with just five blokes and two horses brought back from WWI.

The man was a colossus.

I am betting McDowell. Outsider: Luiten, straigt as an arrow all year and with the "I got in on the final day" luck - if he manages to make it to the field, that is, currently still 1st reserve. Speaking of which: any news on TB's neck problems?

CheersSmithers, great write up. Say hello to Montgomery will ya?

Cheers Smithers. Great write up. The Open is a tough one to make a write up about, but it was a really interesting read.

If TB is injury free, I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the mix. And what about Sergio?

Nice write up SmithersJones. And nice little fact about James Braid there George. I wonder if and when the bbc guys will pick up on that this week. I know where I got it first

I have thursday and friday off work to OD on the Open. Hoping for a scorcher with plenty of wind for good measure.

Faldo still gets some flak for his 1992 speech. I don't think it's that bad. The 'my way' stuff is a bit cringey I suppose. I thought it was funny that he had a little pop or two(presumably) at Peter Aliss. I'm sure I read somewhere that following the win he, had a bottle of Johnny Walker sent to every clubhouse in Scotland.

Good speech. Faldo had character, like him or not. Sick of all the political correct a$$ kissing we see today.

I see TB has just teed off for a practice round so that answers my question for now.

http://scores.theopen.com/TeeTimes.aspx

Bjorn out Thursday morning with Zach Johnson and Shingo

kwinigolfer wrote:http://scores.theopen.com/TeeTimes.aspx

Wow, what kinda webpage is that. Gives me vertigo.

Hopefully we will see the first fast and firm open in a long time. Or are they over watering the course to compensate for the dry weather?

McLaren wrote:Hopefully we will see the first fast and firm open in a long time.  Or are they over watering the course to compensate for the dry weather?

Everything depends on whether they'll send Keegan Bradley and Tiger Woods out first or last.

I see Hanson declares himself only 50/50 to play this week.
Luiten waiting with bated breath.
And: de Jonge is next in line; wonder if he's in Scotland?

kwinigolfer wrote:http://scores.theopen.com/TeeTimes.aspx

See that the pictures of previous winners are holding the Claret Jug? And the Amateur Champion, his trophy?

Thanks for the comments, chaps. Not with you about Monty, Mighty?

No guesses to my well hidden quiz questions, so I'll recap them;

Who apart from Ernie has recorded 4 rounds in the sixties in an Open, but didn't win. And what year was it?

Who are the two Muirfield winners who share Els' record number of under par finishes in the Open, and how many times have they achieved that?

Which two post-war Muirfield winners claimed their first Opens there?

And for which two was it the first major win?

Wasn't the first one Jesper Parnevik early 90's losing to Nick Price? Apart from that I don't know year. Was it Turnberry?

"Who apart from Ernie has recorded 4 rounds in the sixties in an Open, but didn't win. And what year was it?"
Parnevik 1994.

Yep, Jesper in 1994, losing to Nick Price by a shot at Turnberry. I was surprised to discover that Turnberry has only hosted the Open 4 times, in 77, 86, 94 and 2009. I see 2009 champion Stuart Cink has been rewarded for his recent form with a 7.27 tee time on Thursday alongside Scott Stallings and Richard McEvoy.

First major winners at Muirfield are Gary Player and Nick Faldo. Jack Nicklaus won his first Open but not his first major there.

Four rounds in the 60s - Parnevik as stated above.
Sub par rounds - Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer?

Correct on Player and Faldo, George. Player in '59 and Faldo '87. Also correct that Jack won his first Open there, in '66. Another player whose first Open but not first major came at Muirfield to get. Parnevik of course also correct.

As for the under par finishes (it's tournaments, not rounds), it's not Jack and Arnie, and you've not guessed how many.

Westwood has recently hired Sean Foley as coach, interesting move!

SmithersJones wrote:Thanks for the comments, chaps. Not with you about Monty, Mighty?

No guesses to my well hidden quiz questions, so I'll recap them;

Who apart from Ernie has recorded 4 rounds in the sixties in an Open, but didn't win. And what year was it?

Who are the two Muirfield winners who share Els' record number of under par finishes in the Open, and how many times have they achieved that?

Which two post-war Muirfield winners claimed their first Opens there?

And for which two was it the first major win?

Monty is your boss, Smithers, remember?

Smithers, pretty sure about Faldo, I am guessing about 17 finishes under par. The other being Tom Watson?

With you now. SmithersJones is actually from a Jam song, about a downtrodden everyman.

In exactly the same way it's not Nicklaus and Palmer, it's not Faldo and Watson. And 17 is a good guess but wrong.

Only Gary Player and Sir Henry Cotton remaining then, I would say, although I find it hard to believe that they are holding the aggregate under par finishes record.

In the same way it's not Nicklaus AND Palmer, it's not Faldo AND Watson. I want the whole answer, as there's only 7 to pick from.

Ah, there you go. That puts things in a different perspective. Let me rethink. Final try: Nicklaus and Faldo, 14 times (I think I screwed up on counting Faldo's sub par aggregates as a lot of the rota courses are 70/71)

How's Muirfield going to play this eweek?
The forecast looks benign so imagine that helps bring a ton of the weaker drivers in to the mix - like Woods for instance.

Will he need to hit driver at all? Or can he just use his trusty 5-wood as he had at The Players??

Would have thought this fast-and-firm-but-short set up plays in to his hands, McDowell too of course.

Spot on, well done. Faldo's achievement is probably greater given the number of times Nicklaus played the Open (40 ish?) and Ernie's by the same token probably better still, and indeed I rate his chances quite highly of getting to 15 this week.

Not sure the course will allow for sub par scores if the wind will pick up, although the forecast is very mild (20 something degrees Centigrade (around 70F) and no more than a 3 Beaufort on Sunday and even less the days before.

themightyone wrote:Not sure the course will allow for sub par scores if the wind will pick up, although the forecast is very mild (20 something degrees Centigrade (around 70F) and no more than a 3 Beaufort on Sunday and even less the days before.

I guess that should open the door for some of the Americans?

pedro wrote:

themightyone wrote:Not sure the course will allow for sub par scores if the wind will pick up, although the forecast is very mild (20 something degrees Centigrade (around 70F) and no more than a 3 Beaufort on Sunday and even less the days before.

I guess that should open the door for some of the Americans?

It opens the door for the top players I think... tough conditions and four days of scrambling usually favours outsiders. Would think that the straight hitters will still be the ones to watch, wind or no wind any mistakes off the tee should be punished

Straight hitters from the Euro contingent: Franny Molinari, Gmac and Jimenez spring to mind. And of course Luiten if he manages to get in.

hunter mahan springs to mind from other sde of the pond

yep, and those fluffed chips will tend to run out too, so another plus for mahan

 

Nice write up- But nothing on Loooke..

Ok I will let you off.

This open is going to be good weather- The cream will rise.

Cant wait!!

Bets everyone..


Mine

heavily backed loooke and LW- backed Rose, Pmick and Folwer with less- (my total stake will be returned plus only a ton on those 3)

My big odds bets(all over 300 pts) are Villigas, H.english and couples...

I am up over 1800 allready this year on the big golf events.......... 

mystiroakey wrote:Bets everyone..

As per my Open Competition....
Bill Haas
Luke Donald
Hunter Mahan
Matt Kuchar
Brandt Snedeker
All each way, but only 1-5 as opposed to 1-7 position you might get now. Plus £1 win on Faldo at 1000-1. I had to do it.

Someone Tweeted this to Graeme McDowell. Phil Mickelson shot
I've seen other videos of Phil holing (sp?) the shot.

Glover EW, Harrington EW and Woods to win are my 3 bets!

you got an open comp- i shall find it

Sorry Mystiroakey, I should have said "as per my Open competition entries". I do apologise.

its ok i realised it was sportsvilles after a second of searching!

I've gone e/w on Lowry, Westwood & Poulter, and Els on the nose.

Not splashing big enough stakes to make the big names worthwile... gone e/w in the middle ground, Bjorn, Ilonen, Wood, Wiesberger and Villegas. And 10p on Steve Tiley to win outright....

Kelly Tilghman ‏@KellyTilghmanGC 1h
Report says Carl Petterssen going with conventional putter & split claw grip at Muirfield. He's used anchored stroke since 1998.