Rogers Cup and Cincinatti

First topic message reminder :

Stats definitely not my forte but I have just been looking at how many points the big names have to defend in the the next couple of weeks.

Djokovic Canada W  Cincinnati F 1600
Murray Canada R16 Cincinnati R16 180
Ferrer Canada - Cincinnati R32 10
Nadal Canada - Cincinnati - 0
Federer Canada - Cincinnati W 1000

Very unlikely to be any shuffling at the top (would take a great fortnight by Murray (possible) combined with an epic fail by Djokovic (not going to happen)).

Murray, Ferrer and Nadal both have a great opportunity to strengthen their positions though.  This is the polite way of saying that two of them really should have done better last year! (Edit: Born Slippy has since pointed out that Murray withdrew from Canada last year (knee injury))

Really hope Federer does play Canada this year.  He has a lot of points to defend at Cinci and it could take the pressure off a bit.

Should be a fun fortnight.  Can't wait to see the big names out in force again

I told you guys on the other thread I would be surprised to see either Novak or Rafa lift the Cincinnati cup this year, some even commented its irrespective of speed of the court Novak is the kind of the hardcourt.

Murray is the clear favourite followed by Fed and Rafa, yes Fed is a fav inspite of this form, and Rafa won't find him easy today inspite of his great and opponent's poor form and great mis match in h2h.  

Well done Isner. Nobody can go into a match fully confident of beating him.

In his current form I can't agree that Fed will trouble Rafa later tonight. Andy remains the only obstacle to yet another title for the player of the season. If the man from Dunblane fails to come through v Berdych, they may as well give Rafa his trophy + prize money now ......

ic, I see you put Murray as clear favourite when he's not even favourite to win his current match.

IC - Murray might not be your favourite for much longer. Berdych looking pretty solid here...

Can't see Federer beating Rafa personally.

Set and a break for Berdy. Murray looking doomed.

Answering the question about who's next for a Slam, I'd probably lean towards Raonic. Because most of the players on the tour have even a problem of reaching top events semis, it's quite hard to put a name on it. Those that have (Tsonga, Berdych, Ferrer) are of the same era as those that have been doing the winning and if I was to pick one, it would be Berdych, but I'm not sure I see them doing it.

Danny_1982 wrote:IC - Murray might not be your favourite for much longer. Berdych looking pretty solid here...

Can't see Federer beating Rafa personally.

Oops I didn't know the match started, lemme peak in, surprised by the score line so far, come on Andy.  

Danny_1982 wrote:IC - Murray might not be your favourite for much longer. Berdych looking pretty solid here...

Can't see Federer beating Rafa personally.

Well Danny I made comments without looking at the score line, kinda doomed to see Murray at this position, but I haven't given up yet.  

Murray hasn't played too shabbily, has created chances but has failed to take them whereas Berdych has. Berdych has payed very solid stuff today. I won't lose sleep over a defeat here but Andy will lose his No.2 ranking (almost certainly in my opinion) going into the US Open.

I have IC. He's not at races.

In terms of the tournament I'm not really bothered, but I really wanted to see Murray v Nadal. Are they ever going to meet each other again?!

Danny_1982 wrote:I have IC. He's not at races.

In terms of the tournament I'm not really bothered, but I really wanted to see Murray v Nadal. Are they ever going to meet each other again?!

They will meet again...some sunny day.  

Well played Berdych - very solid today and a deserved winner. Murray played not bad but can do a heck of a lot better. Still he exited similarly early this time last year in Cincinatti and it didn't hinder him at Flushing Meadows so won't lose any sleep over this loss.

Wow! Massive credit to Berdych. He was never reknowned for his mental fortitude and I was certain he'd bottle it. 

So Nadal and Murray definitely wont meet here. Guess the "But that was in 2011" nonsense that gets brought re: Murrays record vs Nadal will continue then.

On a serious note, Murray is playing a dangerous game, Peaking for Slams is a tactic that generally never works. Form isnt a switch you can consistently flick at Grand Slam Time. It needs constant tuning.

I'd say Murray certainly garners more motivation for slams. This helps him in a number of ways and in times of danger in matches. He has also said that slam wins are his aim and less so world No.1 so that kind of backs up what I am saying. It may be dangerous but it didn't hinder him last year at the US Open.

Craig - I'm a bit more disappointed, performance wise, than you are. He got agitated with the noise and a couple of calls and after starting well he coughed up errors on standard rally shots after getting into the point.

I'm a bit worried about the open I've got to be honest. He looked great at Queens before Wimbledon and took that into the slam. Last week against Gulbis he looked undercooked and, frankly, not arsed. Today he was but was really soundly beaten.

Ease my concerns Craig, talk me round...

True, but looking how many players consistently won Slams when that became their main (well, its always the main objective... maybe Sole) objectives?

Danny_1982 wrote:Craig - I'm a bit more disappointed, performance wise, than you are. He got agitated with the noise and a couple of calls and after starting well he coughed up errors on standard rally shots after getting into the point.

I'm a bit worried about the open I've got to be honest. He looked great at Queens before Wimbledon and took that into the slam. Last week against Gulbis he looked undercooked and, frankly, not arsed. Today he was but was really soundly beaten.

Ease my concerns Craig, talk me round...

Well what you need to remember is that Berdych is ranked No.6 in the world and is certainly no mug. He has the game to beat anyone on his day. He was solid all round today whereas Andy wasn't. He wasn't at his best but will still kick himself as he created a number of chances early on but didn't take them and paid the price. Not that much to panic about really.

Nadal's record against the players left doesnt make for inspiring reading if youre looking for a defeat. 20-10 vs Federer. 8-3 vs JMDP 3-0 vs Isner, and 14-3 vs Berdych.

kingraf wrote:True, but looking how many players consistently won Slams when that became their main (well, its always the main objective... maybe Sole) objectives?

I wouldn't say slams were his sole objectives as he has won three non-slam tournaments this year - just that he won't lose any sleep over defeats and still turns up tuned in for slams.

kingraf wrote:So Nadal and Murray definitely wont meet here. Guess the "But that was in 2011" nonsense that gets brought re: Murrays record vs Nadal will continue then.

On a serious note, Murray is playing a dangerous game, Peaking for Slams is a tactic that generally never works. Form isnt a switch you can consistently flick at Grand Slam Time. It needs constant tuning.

Hard to question it when his last four slam results have been F, W, F, W. However, its frustrating as he shouldn`t be losing these matches and his/Novak's defeats have basically ruined this tournament as a competitive event. It also just gives these players confidence that they can beat him when it really matters.

JMDP is the only guy who can deny Rafa this week IMO. If he wins the tournament does Rafa go to number 2?

As for whether Andy is a different guy since he last met Rafa, of course he is. He's gone from nearly man to multi slam winner, changed his game quite a bit... No guarantee that it will change the result, but the changes he has made will change the dynamics of the match up for sure. Just like it has against Novak.

Born Slippy wrote: It also just gives these players confidence that they can beat him when it really matters.

But surely when it really matters is in slams is it not? Or at least that is what it seems with Murray. We have often seen him lose in Masters or ATP500 tournaments against certain players then have the knack of beating those same players when the chips are down in slams such as Janowicz (lost in Paris to him but beat him at Wimbledon), Raonic (lost to him on US circuit last year then beat him in the US Open soundly) and Berdych (often beats Murray but lost to him in the US Open semi). I am sure there are other instances.

Caledonian - How dare thee attribute that quote to me? Off to the gallows with you!

Danny - If Nole is to be believed, so is Nadal. We are witnessing Nadal 2.0 (or something of the sort)

kingraf wrote:Caledonian - How dare thee attribute that quote to me? Off to the gallows with you!

Don't panic I have changed it.  

Federer will beat Nadal tonight. I just feel it. He'll have to raise his level though. A repeat of the performance against Haas would see a straight sets spanking. But he must know he owns this tournament and Nadal doesn't have the best of records at it.

Caledonian - All is forgiven...
mr thierry - I actually feel the same way, funny enough, I certainly wouldnt begrudge the Great man a final stand vs Rafa.

Taking everything into consideration everything points to a win for Rafa Nadal tonight. Roger will have done well if he can stretch it to three sets in my opinion.

If Nadal wins Cincinnati what are the odds be gets his pal Ferrer in his half at New York...

kingraf wrote:Danny - If Nole is to be believed, so is Nadal. We are witnessing Nadal 2.0 (or something of the sort)

I agree. I don't like the 2.0 terminology, but they are both newer versions since their last meeting.

Unfortunately, they never seem to bloody play each other. Over the last 16 months they've won 4 slams, an Olympics, god knows how many masters... And yet they never bloody play each other. It's starting to annoy me as it was a contrast I used to enjoy.

Wife ditched me for the night, so may as well check out some tennis.

What are we having on tap for tonight? Ah, a classic stylish all-court SHBH right-hander against a superb DHBH left-hander playing mainly from the baseline, with a lot of power and spin. This should provide an intriguing and unpredictable match. Very exciting.

Or, in other words, what I am trying to say is that if Rafa puts his mind to it, the match should not go much over twelve games.

I think Berdy and DelPo have a good chance this tournament. On a fast court, if both play their A-game Nadal isn't going to stop them, or anyone for that matter. An attacking player playing great tennis on a fast court is always going to win unless injury hampers them.

Danny_1982 wrote:

kingraf wrote:Danny - If Nole is to be believed, so is Nadal. We are witnessing Nadal 2.0 (or something of the sort)

I agree. I don't like the 2.0 terminology, but they are both newer versions since their last meeting.

Unfortunately, they never seem to bloody play each other. Over the last 16 months they've won 4 slams, an Olympics, god knows how many masters... And yet they never bloody play each other. It's starting to annoy me as it was a contrast I used to enjoy.

Is there any player Murray 2.0 does better against though than he did say 2-3 years ago? I can't think of one, so why would he do any better against Rafa?

The Special Juan wrote:I think Berdy and DelPo have a good chance this tournament.  On a fast court, if both play their A-game Nadal isn't going to stop them, or anyone for that matter.  An attacking player playing great tennis on a fast court is always going to win unless injury hampers them.

Nadal will ruin Berdych as he always does. Del Potro would have a shot but his body is falling apart. Roger the only real barrier between Rafa and the title, which is a laughable thought.

Born Slippy - he's beaten Djokovic twice in slams since he 'upgraded' and Federer once in a slam, and again in another 5 set final.

He beat most other players most of the time already, so the judgement was always going to be against the top guys. Lendl has a plan against the top guys, which has worked against the others.

I have no idea how he would change his approach v Rafa, because I've not seen them play.

Slightly edgy start though I'm pleased Federer appears to have a fully focused mindset with a clear plan (attack the backhand). The key for him is to keep up this high first serve % and try to force Rafa to play more backhands than forehands because thats where all the errors are coming from so far... (Still have Nadal to win in straights 6 n 6)

Born Slippy wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I think Berdy and DelPo have a good chance this tournament.  On a fast court, if both play their A-game Nadal isn't going to stop them, or anyone for that matter.  An attacking player playing great tennis on a fast court is always going to win unless injury hampers them.

Nadal will ruin Berdych as he always does. Del Potro would have a shot but his body is falling apart. Roger the only real barrier between Rafa and the title, which is a laughable thought.

Can't agree more  

Danny_1982 wrote:Born Slippy - he's beaten Djokovic twice in slams since he 'upgraded' and Federer once in a slam, and again in another 5 set final.

He beat most other players most of the time already, so the judgement was always going to be against the top guys. Lendl has a plan against the top guys, which has worked against the others.

I have no idea how he would change his approach v Rafa, because I've not seen them play.

Its a disappointment it won't happen in CIncy, I was really waiting for it. 

A much improved performance from feds so far. It's great to see! 5-5.

Do I dare dream? Fed breaks.

Well well well....

Life in the old dog yet!

It's pretty clear who the crowd favourite is.

Wow, what a BH for the set.

What a backhand to win the set.  

I told you even a grandpa Fed is dangerous on Fast courts, I miss the peak Fed on fast courts. 

Well well well...that was unexpected   (kudos IC for calling this). Surely Nadal will still prevail though, right?

ALPanorak wrote:Well well well...that was unexpected   (kudos IC for calling this). Surely Nadal will still prevail though, right?

Well a great match so far, thats all I can ask for.

Many years ago, India was playing a cricket Test match in South Africa, and they were getting caned. At which point a visiting Indian commentator started confidently asserting that there was rain forecast, and India might sneak a draw. No reliable weather service had the forecast, but the gentleman, clinged to the hope. The rain never came, and India proceeded to get smashed. Its not raining yet but Federer showing signs of cloud cover in his "forecast"

ALPanorak wrote:Well well well...that was unexpected   (kudos IC for calling this). Surely Nadal will still prevail though, right?

Actually Fed is wearing Nadal mentally down more than physically, least would have Rafa expected this Fed to turn up and thats why I called Fed would do much better than expected of him.