Rogers Cup and Cincinatti

First topic message reminder :

Stats definitely not my forte but I have just been looking at how many points the big names have to defend in the the next couple of weeks.

Djokovic Canada W  Cincinnati F 1600
Murray Canada R16 Cincinnati R16 180
Ferrer Canada - Cincinnati R32 10
Nadal Canada - Cincinnati - 0
Federer Canada - Cincinnati W 1000

Very unlikely to be any shuffling at the top (would take a great fortnight by Murray (possible) combined with an epic fail by Djokovic (not going to happen)).

Murray, Ferrer and Nadal both have a great opportunity to strengthen their positions though.  This is the polite way of saying that two of them really should have done better last year! (Edit: Born Slippy has since pointed out that Murray withdrew from Canada last year (knee injury))

Really hope Federer does play Canada this year.  He has a lot of points to defend at Cinci and it could take the pressure off a bit.

Should be a fun fortnight.  Can't wait to see the big names out in force again

that was a great match, just 2 games either side of the 2nd and 3rd set cost Federer the match, losing 5 straight games and it was all over

Handing Nadal a violation of any sort generally has the same result as poking a tiger with pogo stick. Good to see tye rules being enforced in such tight situations, though

Was actually a great match and by far the best Federer has played this year, or for a year...yet he still lost. And dare I say against a Rafa who wasnt quite at his best nonetheless. The court and match looked plenty quick enough to me, no way this is a slow court...not even medium, its medium-fast for sure. It's going to take a Herculean effort to beat Nadal in recent form if he's still able to win like this tonight. Still, Federer can take heart from this performance for USO.

apparently Nadals last forehand was out! Surprised Federer didn't challenge just in case

I would like to see Del Potro win this title, he needs to properly assert himself in that pack and be the long term successor of Federer in the top 4

Great match, congrats to Rafa.

Sadly, we ended up with the (inevitable) result, but a lot of good things for Roger to take out of this too.  He may never beat Rafa again but if he can play like this, who knows - a draw can open up for him here or there and he may yet win a slam perhaps.

For a while it looked like Roger might even take it, but one always felt he had to be playing above himself just to keep it even and eventually that was going to take its tall.  For me, the end sort of came at 4:5 in the 2nd set.  Roger had a game point and missed a reasonably easy inside out forehand to finish the game.  Instead it was deuce and all the pressure that comes with it.  A couple of shanks later the set was Rafa's.  After that, Roger tailed off while Rafa was getting stronger, so it was kind of over by then.

I didn't see any evidence/replay of that last shot being out, nor did it look out. SkySports never mentioned it or showed any hawkeye reply of the final shot.
So, 2 long matches for Rafa...must feel a little stiff tomorrow after 2 longish matches 2 nights running...Berdych might be in with a chance tomorrow. Might.

lydian wrote:I didn't see any evidence/replay of that last shot being out, nor did it look out. SkySports never mentioned it or showed any hawkeye reply of the final shot.
So, 2 long matches for Rafa...must feel a little stiff tomorrow after 2 longish matches 2 nights running...Berdych might be in with a chance tomorrow. Might.

its trending on twitter it was out, however its not an excuse as Federer clearly thought it was in. Hopefully the Berdych who turns up against Murray and Federer turns up tomorrow, and not the one who turns up against Novak and Rafa

If Roger can consistently play like he did in that second set, there he might be the "Unlucky quarter" after all.

fascinating stat on sky sports earlier, they said in 2011 Novak won 56 percent of points (expected that to be higher) this year its 55 percent. Just 1 percent drop is all it takes to have an unbelievable year, to and up and down year

Fair enough CAS, don't think there's any evidence behind the tweets though. No other forum or news has mentioned it (checked a few forums and news sites out of curiosity including Federer fan forums who were tracking the match). Anyway, Berydch is most definitely a threat in that form, there isn't a cleaner ball striker on tour and when he's on he's devastating. Nadal wont be able to win this title easily for sure if he has to go through Federer-Berydch-Delpo on faster hard court. Off to bed folks...this one was a great one to stay up for but shut-eye beckons!

Roger was told during the press conference to which he replied "it doesn't matter, I'm sitting here. Hawk-eye doesn't work anyway" Brilliant.

That match shows that if he can summon the will, Federer is more than capable of doing an Agassi. Though to be fair, Agassi had plenty of miles in the tank left heading into his 30's unlike Federer who barely missed a tournament for over a decade. But at worst, he's well capable of doing a Sampras who blew everyone away when EVERYONE thought he was finished. That serve and forehand can still do massive damage to anyone.

kingraf wrote:but not going to lose sleep over it (literally, Im not staying up for it)

Aren't you glad you were lying?  It was worth staying up for, was it not?

kingraf wrote:Chokovic (Really, we getting in that territory now) double faults (umpteenth double fault on a big point) to give Isner match point. and thats all she wrote.

The mini break he lost the first set tie break on was also a double fault. It's getting embarrassing now.

I think the game is pretty much up now. Nowhere near slam winning form and, if he doesn't win USO, he can kiss ye#1 goodbye.

Hard lines Roger but he can take renewed heart from that performance. By all accounts it was his best performance of the year so he can look forward to the US Open with more optimism. As for Rafa I'd say he has now gone clear favourite for the US Open but my reservations are can he maintain this level of intensity over two weeks through potentially tough matches over five sets on a hard court. If he can he will be very tough to beat.

Summer - Yeah, Im ecstatic. I just had this nagging feeling Federer would pull it off.

Good call CAS as seen it described in a couple of places now. Looks like both didn't trust HE last night, Nadal on one shot challenged and saw the ball judged halfway in yet he gestured it was 2 inches out to the umpire from a mark left on the floor. Who knows perhaps what would have happened had it been out on MP but it would still only have been deuce and Nadal for me looked in the clear ascendancy at that point given he'd had a point for 5-1 and every Federer service game was getting tough to hold.

BUT..,it was the best Federer-Nadal match I've seen in years. BB - where art thou, you missed a cracker from your man. Roger played at a level last night that I really believe would have beaten anyone else. It was a completely different man to the one who turned up vs Haas. Nadal clearly motivated him to a higher level.

Nadal himself was a little sluggish I thought through sets 1 and early part 2 as he was spraying FHs and BHs all over the place but Federer was playing sublime stuff, possibly making Nadal play worse than usual as Federer was lethal on anything short and his FH was going right into the very corners of the court with power and angle. Even the BH was rapier-like and he was missing very little, hitting sometimes amazing groundies for 3-4 times without the errors we've sadly come to expect. It was great to see and certainly relit my fire to coin another threads title.

But slowly and inexorably Rafa got more and more into the match despite Feds sky high level. He was starting to get a read on Federer's serve better and better through set 2, his UE count was going down and winners up, you could feel if he won the 2nd set he'd take the match and so it proved to be. Having taken set 2 Nadal became ridiculously aggressive at the start of set 3 where he hit 6 clean winners in 2 games...as many winners as he'd in either sets 1 or 2. To those who feel Nadal is just a retriever with no attacking capability watch those first 3 games of set 3. When Nadal gets to that level I still truly believe he has no peer.

You could easily see that Nadal brought the very best out of Roger last night. Roger raised his level enormously from the Haas match, so even though Fed lost and the H2H goes to 21-10 he must be very pleased with his performance heading into USO. It was truly vintage Federer. No problem with the back, raking serves, quick feet and loads of net attacking and powerful, raking corner hitting. As I say it would surely have beaten anyone else last night. Well worth watching on YouTube for anyone who missed it.

The humidity was also huge last night with both men sweating profusely. Nadal has now played a lot of tennis in 2 days...this may make it a better chance for Berdych tonight although if Nadal hits the same form of set 3 then frankly Tomas has no chance.

3 summary points...
1. Who would have thought Federer could play like that again, especially with the old racquet?
He'll be unlikely or loathe to change the stick now!
2. Who'd have thought Nadal would come back from 8 month lay off and be on the verge of 11 titles with a 13-0 HC record across 3 HC masters?
3. This is still THE rivalry. When its "on" it still produces the best level of and most watchable tennis from anyone still playing. These 2 guys bring out great tennis in the other with loads of variety on display.

Amazing stuff and I'm very pleased to have seen these 2 GOATs battle it out last night. It brought me out posting again and gives heart for Fed fans that Federer could still do a Sampras if he can hold that form for a few matches towards the end of a slam. He's not finished yet but then clearly neither is Rafa...

What an excellent match  I have to say I'm not surprised as I expect nothing less when these two great players share a court. They played some beautiful stuff. What a treat for the fans in Cincy who held tickets for this quarter final.

I hope Federer can take inspiration from his performance and is not too disappointed by his loss because it looked like he had the match wrapped up at times in the second set. If Federer plays like he did in this match I reckon he can beat anyone and maybe the dream of a Federer Nadal final at the US Open is still on the cards. Who cares about seeding just hope these two are on opposite sides of the draw.

Shattered today after staying up for the match last night, but glad I did. Since 2009 the Fedal matches have been getting more predictable and less exciting for a neutral, so I'm not really sure where last night came from. One of the best 3 set matches of the year for sure.

I hope Roger can find that level in New York. A slam deserves Roger playing well in the later stages. As for Rafa, well he looks just superb. Will have to see what the draw looks like but he might be my favourite for the USO now based on the past couple of weeks. With no points to defend for the rest of the year he'll surely end it as number 1 now.

If he wins Cinci, can he climb above Murray before the open?

If Rafa wins in Cincinatti he becomes the world No.2 before the US Open as I now understand it. It does mean we could have a potential semi-final match up between Murray and Nadal or Murray and Djokovic.

Its worth noting that aged 21, Rafa had already won Madrid (Indoor), Indian Wells, and Canada Masters, as well as finals in Miami and Paris. Not to mention a win in Dubai. I just think his hard court perfomances the last few years have been a red herring, caused by a player understandably cautious about strutting his stuff on cement.

I just bring this up because there tends to be this view that Rafa is a bit of a soft draw amongst the big four on Hard court. Fact is, he has two Hard Court Slams, Four Finals, And went to WTF finals. Him being unbeaten on Hard through three HC Masters is a suprise, but I dont think its quite as suprising as some have thought it.

If that happens, which looks likely, then based on form and the fact he'd probably have to beat 2 great players Murray would have to be third favourite.

Though as ever the draw will dictate much. Who gets Delpo, who gets Berdy who is looking solid? Which of the top 2 avoid the number 3 seed? Can't wait. Love the open. My favourite to watch.

I think the 5-8 draws are match up issues. Nadal wouldnt mind a Federer Quarter at this stage, I dont think. Djokovic would welcome the Gasquet draw, while Murray knows it could get a little squeeky (wont lose to Gasquet, but it could be a bit of a chore). Djokovic wouldnt like a Tsonga R16. No one wants DelPo, but I think Djoko would probably be more happier to miss that bullet. Berdych wont beat Nadal in a Slam, all things being equal, but he has Masters victories over Djokovic and Murray this year. Who gets Ferrer? So many interesting permutations for the Open. I'm genuinely excited. Nadal due to his run of consistency is the favorite, but depending on the draw, I think anyone in the top 8, and Tsonga (assuming he is fit) can possibly take the thing.

Born Slippy wrote:

The Special Juan wrote:I think Berdy and DelPo have a good chance this tournament.  On a fast court, if both play their A-game Nadal isn't going to stop them, or anyone for that matter.  An attacking player playing great tennis on a fast court is always going to win unless injury hampers them.

Nadal will ruin Berdych as he always does. Del Potro would have a shot but his body is falling apart. Roger the only real barrier between Rafa and the title, which is a laughable thought.

Well, maybe. Berdy's so bloomin' mentally fragile that Nadal ruining him on a fast court might just happen. As far as I know, DelPo's not suffering from anything at the moment so you never know. I reckon he's got a shot if he makes the final.

Raf - Tsonga is out of New York. Pulled out injured yesterday.

Thats a great shame, he was a potential wrecking ball of a draw. Is this conmected to that fall at SW19?

kingraf wrote:Thats a great shame, he was a potential wrecking ball of a draw. Is this conmected to that fall at SW19?

Yeah it is. I stuck a link to a BBC article on the Random Tennis News thread.

lydian -  I was interested to read your comprehensive assessment of last night's events and the significance for the respective combatants. ahead of the USO (and specifically in Rafa's case, the Y/E ranking too)

Didn't see the match myself but am now keen to catch highlights or perhaps even a full monty version if poss. As you say, when these two giants are on their game, they undoubtedly still combine to produce the most watchable rivalry.

On your point that "Federer could still do a Sampras" .... well yes I see what you mean wrt one last USO crown. But in fairness to the Fed he has already done his Sampras at Wimbledon 2012 when he was pretty much same age as was Pete when he won USO 2002. And of course Pete then promptly called it a day whereas Fed is still playing another year on.

By his once mercurial standards Roger has had a really poor year but still has not yet suffered the degree of late decline that Pete did - and at an earlier age. I simply cannot see Fed staying on tour until Rio 2016 (and am still not convinced he himself will have the appetite to want to) but if he can put in some good showings at the Slams for perhaps another year. then he will have done extremely well considering the mileage he has clocked up to date.      

The USO now offers the chance for one player to end the season with two Slams, and Rafa is without doubt the man in form. A fourth name seems almost inconceivable and I'm sure the bookies will see it that way.

Even if Rafa somehow fails to win another match in 2013 he would still have had a quite exceptional season but he will now want to push on and finish Number One. Given the efforts he has put since his return, it would be a just reward.

Danny_1982 wrote:If that happens, which looks likely, then based on form and the fact he'd probably have to beat 2 great players Murray would have to be third favourite.  

Whatever the draw, Andy's chances are better than Novak's. I rate Del Potro ahead of Novak right now too.

Rafa feels like such a strong favourite that my excitement levels are comparable to how I feel before RG. i.e. not too excited!

Thanks lags.

Present for you....2nd set onwards in HD (can't find 1st set but there Re probably other links, English speaking preferably too).



Re: Sampras/Federer I refer to a period where Peter had been in obvious decline and people were starting to write him off then he surprised everyone with USO2002. Federal hadn't had such an obvious tail off until this stretch after AO until before yesterday...his ranking is starting to slide and its more obvious his form, as well as back, is ailing, hence the racquet change too. If he can now come back and win a slam from these relative ashes then for me he'll have "done a Sampras".  But I see what you mean re: Wimb12, I just don't see it the same as Pete's USO02.

So what's the deal with Novak? He's losing self belief it seems when the crunch moments come...he's hitting more DFs which are nasty as they can really start to eat away at a player. Ask Coria, they basically caused Him to retire - after a series of stinging losses to Nadal of course.

Clearly Novak isn't in that situation but these gremlins seem to be getting worse. I always wonder how much those mammoth 2011/AO12 battles with Nadal took out of him even though he was the victor culminating more recently in the bad loss this RG of course. It's like he went so deep inside himself in those almost to the death battles that maybe he's burnt out somewhere deep inside when the heat rises again these days?

I know people say look at MC where he beat Nadal but Nadal was poor that day. There is a worrying tail off developing with Novak, he looks like the pre-2011 player again to me...great in patches but struggling to sustain it all the way through the big events and when the clutch moments come something seems to snap a little inside him. The Isner loss will not have helped one iota either.

I wouldn't be too downbeat HMM. "Novak at majors" is a level or two above "Novak at every other tournament", he's proved that countless times. However, he's a man with a lot of pressure on him at the moment and whilst this USO won't shape the rest of his career by any means, it's a big tournament for Novak to tell the rest of the players "I am world number 1". If he were to lose to Nadal convincingly in New York, I wonder what that would do for his confidence. Still, it's his best surface and his best format.

Read interesting stat via Gilbert's twitter... out of Rafa's 58 titles only 7 are 250s. That's 51 at 500/1000/2000 level...interestingly Federer has 52!

Novak's problem is that the only shot that comes naturally to him is his backhand.

The forehand and the serve are products of practice rather than instinct. When his confidence is low, neither is any good. Then his confidence gets lower, and they get worse still.

The great irony is that he shows confidence in attempting to come to the net but routinely bungles it.

It's just horrible, horrible play right now. I love watching him at his metronomic best but he's miles from that at present. I've almost given up watching him. It's tedious tennis that is becoming coupled with a predictable narrative.

I feel your pain HMM...but what has happened to send him off his metronomic frequency? Self doubt seems to be at the heart of it.

Yes when your game is built around drilled practice it can slide easily if doubt creeps in to blunt technique. When you play on all flowing automatic mode everything is easy but once the gremlins creep in you start to over analyse, tinker and over think at clutch moments. We saw him tinker with his serve a few years back with bad results...I hope he doesn't get into analysis-paralysis again. Hopefully a few long matches at USO will help him groove again.

Thanks for digging out the youtube vid in HD lydian. Am halfway through and will finish it after a spot of lunch !

I still have no doubt that Novak will prove a truly formidable opponent at the USO but yes, he HAS been coming up short in the clutch moments and is somehow lacking the absolute resolve and aura of near-invincibility that characterised his stellar season of 2011, and then into 2012.

Personally I see Novak's relative (let's keep this in perspective ...... he's hardly in a crisis !!) decline as a fairly natural development in the overall scheme of things. How often do we say that getting to the top spot is one thing, but staying there (for year after year after year after year) is quite another. Perhaps apart from the pure quality of play there is another, less measurable, factor that the likes of McEnroe, Connors, Sampras and Federer had -  something indefinable which enabled them to maintain the consistency and focus required to fend off the challenge from those constantly snapping at their heels for so long. Only five players have managed to hold on to the number one spot for EVERY WEEK of a calendar year and neither Djoko nor Rafa is amongst them. Federer remains the only player in rankings history to have done so for three consecutive years.

It's tough at the top

HM Murdoch wrote:

Danny_1982 wrote:If that happens, which looks likely, then based on form and the fact he'd probably have to beat 2 great players Murray would have to be third favourite.  

Whatever the draw, Andy's chances are better than Novak's. I rate Del Potro ahead of Novak right now too.

Rafa feels like such a strong favourite that my excitement levels are comparable to how I feel before RG. i.e. not too excited!

I wouldn't go that far personally Murdoch. Ok, his form this summer hasn't been great but nor has Andy's. plus Novak is 35-1 in hard court slams over the last couple of years. I still put him level or just behind Rafa.

Form can change quickly. He will probably have a few matches to get back some momentum in New York before facing a serious test. He could have played himself back in by then.

If I could pick 2 matches I want to happen, it would be Novak v Delpo which was stunning at Wimbledon.... And the forgotten match up of Andy v Rafa.

HM Murdoch wrote:Rafa feels like such a strong favourite that my excitement levels are comparable to how I feel before RG. i.e. not too excited!

Oh I am plenty excited about this USO.

First, while Rafa is by a country mile my least favorite among the "big 4", I am still glad he looks in good form again - I love rooting against him and it is far more fun when he is on form .

Second, I would not say he is anywhere near as strong a favorite going into the USO as he would be going into the RG.  He has been playing fantastic these last couple of weeks but I would still make Nole and Andy about equal favorites with him.  In some sense, the set up is perfect - Nole is the best HC player of the three but his form is the worst, while Rafa and Andy look in pretty good form (I would not worry much about Andy's performances in Canada and Cincy, he seems to have decided that Masters tournaments are beneath him nowadays - whether it can work in a long run is questionable, but it has not seemed to hurt him over the last year or so).

So I am expecting a pretty good USO

I don't think Rafa is the favourite: he's played well but has shown he can be outplayed on HC and I actually think of all the recent slams this could be the most open

lydian wrote:I hope he doesn't get into analysis-paralysis again.

I like that description.

I think such a big part of form is to almost 'switch off' your conscious mind and rely on the instincts and muscle memory gained from 1000s of hours practice. It also helps you play in the moment and not worry what may or may not happen.

I've never played tennis but I remember from my football days, when I was in good form I'd receive the ball and I'd have picked my spot and hit the right shot before the conscious mind catches up. When I was short of confidence though, my mind would be a mess of different messages: "left or right? Or shall I pass it? Chip it? Blast it?". And I'd end up just doing something half-baked and ineffective.

I have a hunch that Novak's mind is like that at present. It manifested itself at RG and W as being passive at key moments. He either couldn't decide what  to do or he knew what he wanted to do but wasn't confident enough to go for it properly.

More recently it has become worse and shots and serves are being mis-hit. He's over-thinking in the big moments. In 2011 his mind was "this is how I'm going to play this situation". Recently it is "if I mess this up, I'm in trouble".

I've no idea how he breaks this pattern. A big win might do it. But Rafa is looking ruthless, Andy seems more composed, and Del Potro can play with nothing to lose. So a win will be hard to come by.

I'm not actually too depressed about Novak per se. I just like tennis with a bit of drama. Novak has provided some exciting chapters to the tennis narrative over the last couple of years, so it's frustrating that he seems to have writer's block at the moment!

I want someone to truly challenge the dominant player, whoever that may be (and currently it's Rafa). Nobody seems up to the task right now, so I'm finding tennis a bit flat.

I really want a Murray vs Nadal match! Give the people what they want!

Odds on to have it as one of SF or Final, surely?

I don't want a Nadal/Murray match....

Why not?

CAS wrote:I really want a Murray vs Nadal match! Give the people what they want!

I think if you asked the people they would want another Federer vs Nadal match

Murray under Lendl hasn't played Rafa, I just am fascinated with how Murray will play him. His record his terrible 13-6, 2x slam champion since they last played, the final test in Murrays mental fortitude now in my opinion, has he definitely cracked it

The only thing preventing Murray from practicing his mental fortitude against Rafa has been his tennis skills. Rafa has so far been there in every final apart from Wimbledon.

hawkeye wrote:The only thing preventing Murray from practicing his mental fortitude against Rafa has been his tennis skills. Rafa has so far been there in every final apart from Wimbledon.

You're right, that Wimbledon final was a rip snorter.

CAS wrote:Murray under Lendl hasn't played Rafa, I just am fascinated with how Murray will play him. His record his terrible 13-6, 2x slam champion since they last played, the final test in Murrays mental fortitude now in my opinion, has he definitely cracked it

Spot on CAS. It will be enthralling to watch. If both go deep into the US Open then their paths are bound to cross. There is also much at stake I feel. If Nadal wins there must be an excellent chance he will win the US Open and if he does it you would feel that with more slam wins likely at RG that he could top Federer's slam count before he retires. If Murray wins then you'd think it would be enough to mean he retains his title and proves that he is a far different proposition in the last 18 months since Lendl became his coach.