What do you predict the ultimate outcome of this Euro fight will be?

Up until this week, I really believed all this Euro-posturing was just going to be a bit of a storm in a teacup. But now I’m genuinely worried and beginning to wonder where all this will end [“Don’t panic Mr Mannering!”]. I hope I've thought of all the main possibilities...

I think the most likely outcome is a euro cup without the PRL teams. It would be a real shame but that would appear to beit. Perhaps we can have some non PRL english teams,perhpas we could invite Georgia, Spain et al to join in instead

You've got another option missing which is Rugby Super Dooper cup is not sanctioned, PRL and LNR don't play in Europe AND the new ERC (the PRL are stakeholders) form a new, cut-down Pro12 cup (possibly with D2 teams)

interesting poll, I'll try to run through the options.

Can't see 1 happening, simply because this has been going on for so long, and there's been absolutely no sign whatsoever that PRL/LNR will continue in the current conditions.

2 is possible, 3 won't happen (a new ERC comp would basically be a second Rabo comp and simply won't generate enough interest).

4 is possible, don't know the exact legal technicalities, and I suspect neither does anyone on here.

5 seems unlikely.

Hammer - I think that's what I've got in option 4, isn't it?

MarcusHalberstram wrote:Hammer - I think that's what I've got in option 4, isn't it?

Yeah. Didn't take it on board properly. I voted for that one as it's the closest to the one I think will happen and it turns out it's exactly what I think will happen

Sadly I think that option 4 is the most likely scenario, however this whole situation is becoming so acrimonious and the opinions of those involved and their supporters are becoming so polarised and entrenched that there is a real danger of option 5 happening. Were this to happen it could set NH rugby back 20 years.

No worries!

Any way I can edit the poll to add TJ's option of an ERC tournament with French but no English?

MarcusHalberstram wrote:No worries!

Any way I can edit the poll to add TJ's option of an ERC tournament with French but no English?

I think only admins can edit polls.

On TJ's point, I suspect he's confusing what he predicts will happen with what he hopes will. There has been absolutely no indication from either side that the LNR and PRL are anything but steadfastly united in this one...

Mad - but in France the FFR hold more power because of the legal setup and have the ability to tell the clubs to play in the tournament.

i also believe the french clubs to be less intransigent. I hope for a revamped euro cup with all in it. I suspect that a cup without the english clubs is what will happen

I have said right from the beggining this is what |I think willhappen

I have gone for option 3, I think they will stubbornly refuse to budge and not take part next season, realise they might have got it wrong then come back with tails between legs.

I voted 4, but I do think if this was to happen that the PRL/LNR will return to a revamped HEC after a season, or two, sitting out. If not actually PRL, or LNR, then each country will be represented by teams chosen by their Unions.

If that does happen Munchkin the PRL will only be allowed back in if they play ball. remember the history of the European cup -its started without any english teams and once the rest had shown what a good concept it was they wanted to join. they were allowed to and even to increase their representation after a while. If the english clubs had been engaged from the start perhpas they could have moulded the competition more to suit them

Not sure 1 quite covers what I think will happen. After years of petty infighting both sides are finally forced into some sort of uneasy truce with both sides giving ground, expect a shake up in the ERC board and some new sponsorship arrangements to placate the PRL and LNR, the Rabo lose a couple of places but get to allocate them as they see fit.

Option 4 looks like its winning so far. In which case people should consider what will be the financial impact on all leagues? Rabo needs a new sponsor, and what will be paid for the new HC which is the same members as the Rabo in a different format? And how much money will PRL/LNR lose with no HC? And then who will be able to hold out longest? that is what will largely determine the ultimate shape of any Eur competition as and when everyone gets back around the table.

At the moment I can't see any way out of this almighty mess. PRL have got the most to gain and the most to lose. This either gives them a strong position or a weak one depending on which side of the fence you sit on. The French clubs will carry on as normal without Europe so it's not a big issue to them. PRL are sitting on the BT contract hoping the new competition comes to fruition but there is no way any of the unions will agree to losing control of the game. I genuinely can't see any way out unless there is a massive change of direction on both sides.

the new HC will I believe have the french in it - and even if not the rest of the unions should be able to create some more interest with entrants from outside I would hope. championship english teams div 2 french ones, european minnows etec

I can see option 5 happening, this situation has been around before and back then,100 years ago it was about money, so look what happened, we now have league and union, but if this is what the English want then they can have it.

Remeber folks - the european cup started without the english joining in and it became a great competition. Euro cup mark 2 could go the same way.

I have always said I would like to see the minnows playing as national sides in the HC.

The PRL are forgetting the surge in interest in rugby in England came on the back of the world cup win. Their plans if they went exactly as they want will slowly reduce the importance of International rugby all over the globe. Despite being a far superior game rugby hasn't got the pull of club football and without International interest and revenue the game will slowly weaken.

Its no longer about the qualification process its all about TV deals...and the income the rabo teams especially need to survive!

So...its the BT TV deal!
Can we assume that TV deal represents much bigger income for ENG/FR leagues hence they pulled out of the ERC tournament where TV rights would owned by sky?

So...Is that pie big enough to share with the other unions to compete with the amounts they already get from Sky?

If so I go for point 2...i.e....Everyone in the new tournament.
(Maybe there yet are more TV deals yet to be made about the rights to games not involving English teams?)

If not...

Point 3...but its no good for anyone...and i'd give it a year before they are all back at the table.
How much TV interest is there in the champions cup with teams who prioritize their own leagues?
How much tv interest is there for an ERC tournament without ENG/FR teams?

I just can't see a full renegotiation of the ERC tournament...that TV deal is going to be the stumbling block!

How will their plans slowly reduce the importance of International Rugby?

RF - from what we have been told the rabo unions would get about the same as they do now from the BT deal, the PRL and french about double.

None of the above.

A deal will be struck everyone will get on like a house on fire, Sky and BT will share the fixtures, the English and French clubs will become richer and some of the Rabo teams will moan about that and say it's unfair, the Irish will be the Irish and continue to punch above their weight.

TJ....ok..so it is the TV deal controlling it all

Do we think the Rabo teams will bite the bullet and take this offer?

....if so we are looking at everyone in the new tournament.

Perhaps they will negotiate for a better deal?

...Perhaps then the only thing that's really in discussion at the table.....is the big BT pie in the middle and how to divide it!

Scrumpy wrote:None of the above.

A deal will be struck everyone will get on like a house on fire, Sky and BT will share the fixtures, the English and French clubs will become richer and some of the Rabo teams will moan about that and say it's unfair, the Irish will be the Irish and continue to punch above their weight.

I hope you a right Scrumpy.

I voted for 4. I fear 5. if that happens the professional players in Rabo teams would for financial reasons jump ship too.

RF09 wrote:Its no longer about the qualification process its all about TV deals...and the income the rabo teams especially need to survive!

So...its the BT TV deal!
Can we assume that TV deal represents much bigger income for ENG/FR leagues hence they pulled out of the ERC tournament where TV rights would owned by sky?

So...Is that pie big enough to share with the other unions to compete with the amounts they already get from Sky?

If so I go for point 2...i.e....Everyone in the new tournament.
(Maybe there yet are more TV deals yet to be made about the rights to games not involving English teams?)

If not...

Point 3...but its no good for anyone...and i'd give it a year before they are all back at the table.
How much TV interest is there in the champions cup with teams who prioritize their own leagues?
How much tv interest is there for an ERC tournament without ENG/FR teams?

I just can't see a full renegotiation of the ERC tournament...that TV deal is going to be the stumbling block!

The exact details of the BT deal haven't been disclosed publically (apparantly the RFU know the details). How much the Sky deal is worth has never been disclosed (that I've seen).

The old Sky/ESPN deal was about £54M over three years (£18M a year).  The current BT deal is £152M over four years, inlcuding euro rights. So assuming the BT deal was at least the level of the previous combined deal (same number of games) that leaves £80M for increases to the Jeff rights (4 years) and the English home games in Europe (3 years).

One of the proposed suggestions (as far as I'm aware this is based on media/fan specualtion not the actual reality, which is unknown) was that each league gets the same amount. So each English club will get the same as each Rabo club. That means that the English clubs as a whole massively increase (because they were getting a lot less previously) and the Pro12 teams get a little more each. Currently the PRL get about 24% and this would increase to 33% (of a larger pot). The WRU/RRW (for example) would go from about 17% (I think) to 11% (again of a larger pot so an increase).

I think the most likely scenario is there will be no European rugby after this season, for a while anyways.

The PRL have effectively left the ERC and Heino, leaving that comp dead. The new BT comp won't happen either imo.

HammerofThunor wrote:How will their plans slowly reduce the importance of International Rugby?

Ultimately, if the deal as has been publicised goes ahead the English and French clubs who are already significantly better off than the Celts will have a lot more money and the Celts will stay on roughly the same as they are now. All the top players will realistically head to England and France to reap the rewards. This will result in national sides becoming weaker as player release will be less and some will choose family security over international rugby. There will be fewer English and French players playing top flight rugby and International rugby will go the way of international football as a result. That's what I see as the likely result of the plans going through with no changes.

The big issue is that there is no doubt the English and French TV audiences generate the majority of the income for TV deals. They feel they deserve the greater share of the pot and it's hard to argue with that. The problem is that if the deal goes ahead and the champions cup happens the gap between Eng/Fra and the rest will just widen and after a few years the competiton will be a waste of time. That is the big conundrum. Do the English and French part subsidise the rest of Europe for the good of the game? If not the rest of Europe could be semi pro within a few years.

Fearsomeg wrote:

HammerofThunor wrote:How will their plans slowly reduce the importance of International Rugby?

Ultimately, if the deal as has been publicised goes ahead the English and French clubs who are already significantly better off than the Celts will have a lot more money and the Celts will stay on roughly the same as they are now. All the top players will realistically head to England and France to reap the rewards. This will result in national sides becoming weaker as player release will be less and some will choose family security over international rugby. There will be fewer English and French players playing top flight rugby and International rugby will go the way of international football as a result. That's what I see as the likely result of the plans going through with no changes.

The big issue is that there is no doubt the English and French TV audiences generate the majority of the income for TV deals. They feel they deserve the greater share of the pot and it's hard to argue with that. The problem is that if the deal goes ahead and the champions cup happens the gap between Eng/Fra and the rest will just widen and after a few years the competiton will be a waste of time. That is the big conundrum. Do the English and French part subsidise the rest of Europe for the good of the game? If not the rest of Europe could be semi pro within a few years.

you might be right, but there are an awful lot of ifs in here. is this likely enough to justify resisting change and seeing the breakdown of European rugby? PRL/LNR have concrete terms to offer viz BT etc, hard to put a value or probability on the fears you expressed.

The concrete terms from the PRL BT deal- have you seen any? Its been said its about the same money for the Rabo unions - double the money for the PRL and LNR. So under the BT deaql the Rabo unions would be relatively worse off.

TJ wrote:The concrete terms from the PRL BT deal- have you seen any? Its been said its about the same money for the Rabo unions - double the money for the PRL and LNR.  So under the BT deaql the Rabo unions would be relatively worse off.

but PRL are able to put a value on those terms because they exist. And that is a concrete financial fact informing their actions. I dont need to see the BT terms.

TJ wrote:The concrete terms from the PRL BT deal- have you seen any? Its been said its about the same money for the Rabo unions - double the money for the PRL and LNR.  So under the BT deaql the Rabo unions would be relatively worse off.

Well if you call each team getting the same income from the competition as everybody else being relatively worse off then you are right.

Total budgets. the scots teams would have the same total budget as they do now - the English a lot more post the BT deal.

TJ wrote:Total budgets.  the scots teams would have the same total budget as they do now - the English a lot more post the BT deal.

yes. and the english have 12 competitive teams in European competitions. thats not unfair. you just dont like it.

and thats only if the scots teams both qualified

12 competitive teams.    How many HC wins recently?

thats playing budget per teamBTW.

TJ wrote:Total budgets.  the scots teams would have the same total budget as they do now - the English a lot more post the BT deal.

Yes it is putting a wrong right. Each team would now get the same amount from which to pay its players etc. i cannot see how this is unfair.

If the Scots have less money from other sources that is because they and the Rabo teams generally have not done enough to develop and market the game. Why does a small town club like Gloucester get more support than Rabo teams from much larger cities? It is not the responsibility of the PRL to market the Rabo.

competitive in the sense that they have to compete for places. as opposed to qualifying automatically. which would be anti-competitive.

TJ wrote:12 competitive teams.    How many HC wins recently?

thats playing budget per teamBTW.  

TJ, I thought your problem is that the English were too dominant. You are right they have not had any wins recently so I am a loss to see how that makes them dominant.

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:Total budgets.  the scots teams would have the same total budget as they do now - the English a lot more post the BT deal.

Yes it is putting a wrong right. Each team would now get the same amount from which to pay its players etc. i cannot see how this is unfair.

If the Scots have less money from other sources that is because they and the Rabo teams generally have not done enough to develop and market the game.  Why does a small town club like Gloucester get more support than Rabo teams from much larger cities?  It is not the responsibility of the PRL to market the Rabo.

so see my other thread. You believe a richer prl is worth the loss of a competitive Scots entry into the euro cup and the 6N?

the main reason the scots have less money is because we cannot have a lucrative TV deal. paying punters do not bring in enough money for any club

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:12 competitive teams.    How many HC wins recently?

thats playing budget per teamBTW.  

TJ, I thought your problem is that the English were too dominant. You are right they have not had any wins recently so I am a loss to see how that makes them dominant.

dominent financially.

TJ wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:Total budgets.  the scots teams would have the same total budget as they do now - the English a lot more post the BT deal.

Yes it is putting a wrong right. Each team would now get the same amount from which to pay its players etc. i cannot see how this is unfair.

If the Scots have less money from other sources that is because they and the Rabo teams generally have not done enough to develop and market the game.  Why does a small town club like Gloucester get more support than Rabo teams from much larger cities?  It is not the responsibility of the PRL to market the Rabo.

so see my other thread.  You believe a richer prl is worth the loss of a competitive Scots entry into the euro cup and the 6N?

the main reason the scots have less money is because we cannot have a lucrative TV deal.  paying punters do not bring in enough money for any club

Paying punters still make up a fairly large proportion of the income. The trouble is that the Scots get too few paying punters. I live near Edinburgh and I prefer to watch Peebles play rather than stand in Murrayfield watching the tumbleweed roll past.

In addition to AP games I watch Top14. I have no interest in watching Rabo as it is uncompetitive and half the time the best players are resting. That lack of interest translates into TV revenue. Produce a better product and the revenue rises.

TJ wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:12 competitive teams.    How many HC wins recently?

thats playing budget per teamBTW.  

TJ, I thought your problem is that the English were too dominant. You are right they have not had any wins recently so I am a loss to see how that makes them dominant.

 dominent financially.

I thought the problem was that financial dominance means playing dominance. If it doesn't why do you care?

You clearly have not actually been watching the Rabo then - thereis no mor resting of players than in othe rleagues and the quality of the games is high ( baring edinburgh this last year or two :-(. I agree with you about the empty stands in Edinburgh. However we do not have a suitable smaller stadium and no money to develop one.

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:12 competitive teams.    How many HC wins recently?

thats playing budget per teamBTW.  

TJ, I thought your problem is that the English were too dominant. You are right they have not had any wins recently so I am a loss to see how that makes them dominant.

 dominent financially.

I thought the problem was that financial dominance means playing dominance. If it doesn't why do you care?

Increased financial dominance will lead to increased playing dominance and push the Scots teams at club and intenational into a completely uncompetitive situation.

TJ wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:

Exiledinborders wrote:

TJ wrote:12 competitive teams.    How many HC wins recently?

thats playing budget per teamBTW.  

TJ, I thought your problem is that the English were too dominant. You are right they have not had any wins recently so I am a loss to see how that makes them dominant.

 dominent financially.

I thought the problem was that financial dominance means playing dominance. If it doesn't why do you care?

Increased financial dominance will lead to increased playing dominance and push the Scots teams at club and intenational into a completely uncompetitive situation.

But they dont just make money from European competition. It is an important revenue stream of course but its not the only one and its a long way from being the main one. If, say the BT deal does raise the PRL income massively then that imbalance might happen anyway. You cant force someone else to stay poor because you are, although its easier to sit still and shout that message than to try and do something about your own situation.

tehre is nothing else we can do - we have done what we can in adjusting our structure to maximise our return both in playing terms and financial terms with the current cross border set up. we simply cant raise enough money in scotland.

Putting it bluntly it looks a total mess the English Clubs appear to have exclusive contracts with the BBC.French Clubs with Sky/ESPN or whatever so either way the only way out of the
impasse means one or other will be in breach of contract if they back down.
Since both French and English authorities refuse to back it,you really could get clubs
and players in limbo.
Potentially as big as the schism that created Rugby League,and it now looks that the
authorities may have to level sanctions.Making players ineligible for Test and RWC places.
What it amounts to is TV wars for rights to see certain matches,how long before the
International arena is dragged in.Players /Clubs involved whatever have unilaterally it
seems torn up agreed contracts with Tv companies.
The lawyers will have a field day.,litigation may even ban players playing at all from the
number of bellicose comments flying about.
You can bet in the end the fans will be the ones paying for it in the long run.

fans always pay for it. in the past, present and future. which is what this is all about. who pays for what and what they get for it. nothing more nothing less.