Ireland's November Series and Beyond...

First topic message reminder :

Right boys, I want you give realistic guess of how Ireland will do in the November tests. I want you to separate your hearts from your heads. How do you predict Ireland will do and how will this set them up for the Six nations based on your poll prediction for the Autumn tests.

Do you believe in Schmidt? Do you believe he is the catalyst for consistent success or will we yet again disappoint by firing hot and cold like recent championships have dictated. Is there cause for quite confidence or should we be holding are cards close to our chest.

Feel free to throw out your wildest aspirations on the table or to throw caution to the wind.

The rest is up to you....


Sat 9th Ireland vs Samoa - Autumn
Sat 16th Ireland vs Australia - Autumn
Sun 24th Ireland vs New Zealand

Anyone else see Rog is saying Racing are interested in signing up Murray?

Agree with that profitus - Schmidt can only go as fast as the limited number of games he has, will allow. It is no surprise that he hasn't been too radical with personnel assuming he is more radical with the way they play

Golden wrote:Anyone else see Rog is saying Racing are interested in signing up Murray?

They probably are. Ireland is going to lose more players to France. The IRFU cannot compete with silly money and they shouldn't try to compete either. With Murray being so young I don't think he'll go.


SOB going to France would be the biggest blow for Ireland. Currently hes the best player in the country and an abrasive forward which means he picks up injuries.

Think I read on the Leinster forum that SOB had turned down a central contract cos he wanted to have more time to spend on the farm. Doesnt sound like the kinda guy to be tempted away for the big bucks. Heaslip is more likely

Australia area lot better than everyone thinks they are

I can see them beating England in their first test as well as ourselves

Me too Geoff.

geoff998rugby wrote:Australia area lot better than everyone thinks they are

I can see them beating England in their first test as well as ourselves

This is something that people constantly say re Australia and its true they are usually good. However, over the last few years they have lost to everyone bar Wales and Argentina so they are very beatable and thats what Ireland should be aiming to do.

profitius wrote:

Golden wrote:Anyone else see Rog is saying Racing are interested in signing up Murray?

They probably are. Ireland is going to lose more players to France. The IRFU cannot compete with silly money and they shouldn't try to compete either. With Murray being so young I don't think he'll go.


SOB going to France would be the biggest blow for Ireland. Currently hes the best player in the country and an abrasive forward which means he picks up injuries.

If you look at Sexton's contract and break it down it really isnt that much more than he would have been offered in Ireland. If fact it probably works out less on a game per game basis and it may shorten his career so I am not worried that players will head off in large numbers.

The IRFU are very smart and have good systems in place to keep the best players here. Granted they messed up re Sexton but if any contract deal was going to be tough it would be his as he is a bullish character.

Changes to Tax Laws are going to make a hole lot of differerence now. I've started a thread on it, but basically Irish players won't have to finish their careers in Ireland to get their tax back.

Sin é wrote:Changes to Tax Laws are going to make a hole lot of differerence now. I've started a thread on it, but basically Irish players won't have to finish their careers in Ireland to get their tax back.

???

Seems to be one good news Irish rugby story after another these days! Seems we're readying ourselves to willingly go backwards to when provinces were bit players in Europe, and we'll have to go asking nicely for our boys to be returned to us for Internationals, if you please, sir and begging' your pardon and all for bein' a nuisance. And with the high value player exodus will go the high value coaches that came with them.... Wasteland? TS Elliot?

I really don't know what the IRFU are thinking these last few days (I hope they have a few smart moves under their sleeves that they're not declaring yet. But if it's straight survival in a big bad new and aggessive club run world, then I'm not sure the apparent foot-shooting they seem to be engaged in is going to be the way to achieve that.

SecretFly wrote:
I really don't know what the IRFU are thinking these last few days (I hope they have a few smart moves under their sleeves that they're not declaring yet.  But if it's straight survival in a big bad new and aggessive club run world, then I'm not sure the apparent foot-shooting they seem to be engaged in is going to be the way to achieve that.

What foot shooting?

GunsGerms wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Australia area lot better than everyone thinks they are

I can see them beating England in their first test as well as ourselves

This is something that people constantly say re Australia and its true they are usually good. However, over the last few years they have lost to everyone bar Wales and Argentina so they are very beatable and thats what Ireland should be aiming to do.

Did you watch the NZ v Australia game - some serious quality rugby from the Aussie's

geoff998rugby wrote:

GunsGerms wrote:

geoff998rugby wrote:Australia area lot better than everyone thinks they are

I can see them beating England in their first test as well as ourselves

This is something that people constantly say re Australia and its true they are usually good. However, over the last few years they have lost to everyone bar Wales and Argentina so they are very beatable and thats what Ireland should be aiming to do.

Did you watch the NZ v Australia game - some serious quality rugby from the Aussie's

Which one, the last one? No.

They played well v Argentina in Argentina too but they play fairly poorly more often that not.

GunsGerms wrote:

SecretFly wrote:
I really don't know what the IRFU are thinking these last few days (I hope they have a few smart moves under their sleeves that they're not declaring yet.  But if it's straight survival in a big bad new and aggessive club run world, then I'm not sure the apparent foot-shooting they seem to be engaged in is going to be the way to achieve that.

What foot shooting?

They've just dropped (along with the other unions) virtually everything the PRL/LNR demanded on the PRL/LNR doorstep... looking pretty damn weak in the process.  Now, we're told there is a part 2 to come - about administration and specific rules of the competition.  We'll see if they have a "Get back in your box PRL/LNR" aspect to them.  If not, it'll be a full hari kari sacrifice to the 'market' pressures applied by privately owned wealth-creating clubs.

I call that a good exercise in foot-shooting, Guns.  

Now, it seems I have to add it to the tax break being changed to allow Irish players collect it after having played abroad?  That's going to keep them eager to stay on in Ireland with the big offers coming from France (and I'm sure increasingly from England). That'll help Provinces greatly.

This is Ireland Fly...shooting oneself in the foot is our national sport in any walk of life (sports, politics you name it)

2 weeks today it all kicks off. Tickets are like 17E I think, might think of going to that as-well. Might be a tad early for score predictions. But go on.

Ireland 27 - Samoa 15

What your predictions?

Surely Moore will get called up now? Archer was Minced in the scrum last night against Glasgow, whereas Moore just continues to impress.

I doubt it if I am honest.

I would call Moore up along with Marmion and possibly Olding but the guys have been selected for a reason and Schmidt will live/die by that decision.

I wasn't really sure how this was gonna go if I am honest. I wasn't sure if his selections were going to be radically different to DK's or if it was just the plan/implementation of said plan were going to be different.

I suppose we have to wait and see.

It is upsetting that we don't have a game against a weak team to give some of the other lads a run out. Particularly the backs could do with having lads getting gametime.

Marmion-Madigan
Olding-Fitzgerald
Trimble-Morris-Conway

Imagine that coming up against a Fiji team!

I understand why he has left Moore out and it's nothing to do with talent. It's a young lad in his first full season in an attritional position. If there is an injury I suspect he will get a call up anyway.

Olding has only started one game so let's see how he goes against the scarlets and potentially add him from there. Marmion to my mind is a mistake. He should definitely replace one of reddan or boss.

Im unsure how Joe will go v Samoa in terms of experimenting so if I were picking the team for Oz it would look like

Healy
Best
Ross
Tuohy
POC
O'Mahoney
O'Brien
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Marshall
BOD
Bowe
Kearney

Cronin, McGrath, Fitz, Toner, Henry, Reddan, Jackson, Henshaw

McFadden is in much better form than Earls.... as is Dave Kearney...who in turn isn't playing as well as Trimble. Likewise Marmion is much better than Reddan, who is inferior to Marshall, who is better than Boss.

Olding is better than all of the above, but not Payne...who isn't unfortunately isn't Irish yet.

Didnt Fitzpatrick get injured on the weekend? How bad is it?

If Moore was called up that would mean Leinster would be down their 2 first choice Lhs and their 2 first choice THs.

If anyone gets dropped then it has to be Reddan. Boss has been one of our best players this season. This is the best I've seen him play in a good while.

Injured/ Not Selected 23

Kilcoyne
Strauss
Moore
Ryan
Henderson
Wilson
TOD
Murphy
Marmion
Hanarahan
Fitz
Olding
Cave
Gilroy
Zebo

Bench: Cronin, Varley, Lutton, Cullen, Ruddock, Marshall, Keatley, Trimble

Sexton having a great game here for Racing ... actually this may be a replay so maybe he had a great game.

rodders wrote:Sexton having a great game here for Racing ... actually this may be a replay so maybe he had a great game.

i predict a score of 16-12 to Racing. Quick Rodders put a bet on

Fitzpatrick got injured against Montpellier, calf- he was expected to be fit this week so hopefully he's fit next week. You know how it's been with him and injuries in the past though. A bit like 'here we go again...'. Hopefully he and Rory Best will be fit for Samoa. Best rolled his ankle.

It's disappointing Madigan isn't showing up as well as last season/hasn't been selected in a few big games. Paddy Jackson is now in better form and in with a shot at being second choice but I would actually rather he was given time with Ulster to develop and most importantly strive for consistency in his goal kicking. I don't think there is much wrong with his kicking he just needs game time to work on it and the confidence and consistency will come from that- he's had two great goal kicking displays and then a poor one. He's ready to be able to come into Ireland and run the game from 10 but not ready to be a goal kicker at test level.

I think he will win many more Ireland caps in his career, I feel he's a future leader and future first choice 10 for Ireland- but in the long term I feel he'd be better off putting the hard work in in the Pro12 this autumn than sitting on the bench and potentially being thrown in with his goal kicking in the spotlight against Australia and NZ.

I wonder will Schmidt do what Kidney should have done when he picked Jackson last year and use McFadden as an extra kicking option. It was all set up nicely with Madigan doing so well last year- damned disappointing Madigan hasn't picked up where he left off.

If Jackson starts then he could play Madigan at 12. Madigan was one of the best kickers in the league last season and I don't think he's missed one yet this season.

I hear POC is a worry what's the news on him will he be back in time?

I think Jackson has been very consistent this year bothin his general play and his kicking and is easily ahead of Madigan (and i am a big fan of Madigan).

McFadden could play on the wing (will likely make the bench), in which case he could take the kicking duties if Jackson comes on.

We don't know how well Mcfadden is kicking though. He was brilliant at the start of the 2012 season but as the season went on he got very inconsistent.

PJ is in better form than Madigan (bar goalkicking), but Ian is more of an impact player than Jackson and covers more positions, he'll be on the bench ahead of PJ.

theslosty wrote:PJ is in better form than Madigan (bar goalkicking), but Ian is more of an impact player than Jackson and covers more positions, he'll be on the bench ahead of PJ.

Does he really though? At the minute its hard to say. Things have gone against Madigan in the same way things didn't go for Jackson earlier this year.

In terms of a running threat then Madigan is a better option but if I were looking to put width on the ball (from what I have seen of both this season) Jacksons passing game is currently far superior. Its tough. I think familiarity with Schmidt may ultimately go in Ian's favour which is no bad thing when you are looking to get first up wins.

Madigan is the better player to open the game up with 20 minutes to go, and if Sexton was having an unusually shaky day with the kicking tee you wouldn't really want to call on PJ.

Also Madigan's passing is technically excellent, but PJ certainly has more nous in running a backline.

PJ has played well lately but I do feel that some people are very quick to hype him up, for example Madigan's goal kicking is always immaculate but seems to get very little praise for it, whereas I've seen a few posters laud "outstanding" kicking performances from Jackson, when in reality even on a good day his percentages aren't world class.

If Jackson is now maturing, he looks like a really exciting player for years to come.

It's a shame Madigan hasn't been given too many chances to really prove himself, but I still think he is one of the most talented footballers in Ireland, he'll turn it around.

On a separate note, if these guys and JJ Hanrahan can even get near Sexton's level, I'd like to see the home-based player start for the national side.

If you want to talk about hype then madigan was and has been hyped up massively on the basis of being a back up 10 (which to all intents and purposes he still is).

Madigan has a good pass but looking at his action there is a lot more effort in his pass than Jacksons. He doesn't seem to have the pace of pass that Jackson has. He can throw as far but to my mind he can't do it flat. I'm generalising probably and working off what I have seen this season to a large extent.

In terms of kicking it is the predominant argument for Madigan over jackson so I don't know how it has been overlooked at all and if we are looking for a guy to solidify goal kicking in the last 20 then certainly he is the man. I disagree totally regarding him opening things up though, certainly on this seasons form.

Not to jump on one singular point but Madigan is without doubt the best passer in Ireland. No other player can pass the ball the way he can. Jackson is ahead of him in my eyes, if Sexton was out I'd start PJ but Madigan looks like he could be the better bench option due to versatility and the way he impacts a game.

Madigan is getting a bit of a beat down I guess from MOC and some of us, but when you think of it he has all the flair of a Quade-Cooper type player yet has the goalkicking of a ROG type player. He just loses out on game management in my eyes.

Can't agree on the passing Pete. He throws good passes but he puts more air on them than Jackson which gives the defence more time. In fairness it's not something I noticed of Jackson until this season but the zip and range of passing is something else. I don't think madigan has as good a technique. Again it's mainly based on this season and I genuinely don't mind which one gets the nod. Both very capable IMO.

Standulstermen wrote:
Madigan has a good pass but looking at his action there is a lot more effort in his pass than Jacksons. He doesn't seem to have the pace of pass that Jackson has. He can throw as far but to my mind he can't do it flat. I'm generalising probably and working off what I have seen this season to a large extent.

Apologies if this comes across as forceful but that is wrong. Jackson reads a backline better and his short passing game is outstanding but Madigan's pass is out of this world. He uses his forearms and hips (therefore weight/momentum) more than most do (most use wrists) so you could say he uses more "effort" but in terms of pace of pass, flatness of pass and length of pass, Madigan is king in Ireland and one of the best in the Northern Hemisphere.

Again apologies if that comes across as forceful.

Looks like we could have some injury/citing concerns according to the Independent regarding the game against Samoa.

http://www.irishtimes.com/sport/rugby/international/donnacha-ryan-attends-perpignan-match-as-he-weighs-up-option-of-move-abroad-1.1575258

Possible injuries:
Healy, O'Connell, Earls, Best, O'Brien, BOD, Ross, Fitzpatrick, (Murray cited)

Confirmed injuries:
Ryan, Henderson, Strauss, Ferris

BOD, Best, SOB and Ross all sound like they should be back according to the article.

Being pessimistic and saying that those guys don't make it our team could wind up looking like.....

Court-Cronin-Archer
Toner-Tuohy
POM-Heaslip-Henry
Boss-Sexton
Marshall-Henshaw
McFadden-Kearney-Bowe

By the looks of it there will be other lads in there but still, could be quite scary

pete (buachaill on eirne) wrote:

Standulstermen wrote:
Madigan has a good pass but looking at his action there is a lot more effort in his pass than Jacksons. He doesn't seem to have the pace of pass that Jackson has. He can throw as far but to my mind he can't do it flat. I'm generalising probably and working off what I have seen this season to a large extent.

Apologies if this comes across as forceful but that is wrong. Jackson reads a backline better and his short passing game is outstanding but Madigan's pass is out of this world. He uses his forearms and hips (therefore weight/momentum) more than most do (most use wrists) so you could say he uses more "effort" but in terms of pace of pass, flatness of pass and length of pass, Madigan is king in Ireland and one of the best in the Northern Hemisphere.

Again apologies if that comes across as forceful.

It's your opinion chief. Just means your opinion is wrong  

He simply isn't a worse passer than Jackson

Pete

You're going to have to let it go lad. It's an opinion

Jackson is certainly no2 to Sexton for me now. His all round game and decision making is so good and his flat passing game really makes his Ulster teammates look good - Payne, Olding Marshall in particular. Currently his tactical kicking would be something ROG would be proud of.

Pete's point about Madigan is good though in terms of being an impact player. Jacksons game is actually quite similar to Sextons whereas Madigan offers something a bit different.

Sexton looks in good form with Racing which is great news.

OK question - BOD and POC -  should they be selected? Great players they have been but neither have really done anything of note this season due to injury. Certainly I wouldn't select either against Samoa therefore putting them in against either of the big two is a massive risk.

More and more this season is looking like a bridge too far for these two legends and neither may get the glorious swansong they deserve...

They are two talisman and can achieve levels our other options can't. If they are fit, they play. If there is any doubt you don't risk them against Samoa.

As has been said above I am happy with whichever of madigan or Jackson benches

I'd go with Touhy and Toner at lock with McCarthy on the bench.

Centre is the bigger problem - D'arcy at 12 with Marshall at 13 maybe? .... or would starting Sexton at 12 outside Jackson be a tactical masterstroke???

Marshall at 12 and henshaw at 13. If he is to be our backup 13 he no sense in wasting time here. If he isn't good enough to start this game he shouldn't be In the squad and Schmidt should have picked someone else. Looks physical enough.

More likely he would go with D'arcy at 12 and Marshall at 13 though

Personally I think there's a tendency to overrate some of the Connacht lads because they stand out in a relatively weak side. I'm not convinced by Henshaw yet...honestly I believe if he was that good a prospect he'd have been snapped up by someone else....same with Marmion.

Would these guys start at the other provinces?

rodders wrote:

OK question - BOD and POC -  should they be selected? Great players they have been but neither have really done anything of note this season due to injury. Certainly I wouldn't select either against Samoa therefore putting them in against either of the big two is a massive risk.

Ain't no mountain high enough,
Ain't no valley low enough,
Ain't no injury false enough,
To keep me from You!! (ABs that is.)

O'Connor is sending out secret coded messages to the ARU spies in the Australian Embassy.  "The - IRFU - basterauds - are - keeping - the - basteraud - back - and - not - letting - me - play - him - into - the - dirt!"

rodders wrote:Personally I think there's a tendency to overrate some of the Connacht lads because they stand out in a relatively weak side. I'm not convinced by Henshaw yet...honestly I believe if he was that good a prospect he'd have been snapped up by someone else....same with Marmion.

Would these guys start at the other provinces?

How many of the Munster boys would start at Leinster or Ulster?  Yet they're up there at the top.  Maybe the point is more pertinently put that the 'bigger' Provincial sides might overrate themselves.

Murray, O'Connell, Earls, Ryan, Kilcoyne and Zebedee certainly would push for a place at least...ok maybe not Earls but you catch my drift...