Ireland vs Italy, 8th March

IRELAND VS ITALY

Date: Saturday, March 8
Kick-off: 14:30 GMT
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Pascal Gauzère (France), Greg Garner (England)
Television match official: Geoff Warren (England)
Assessor: Andrew Cole (Australia)

IRELAND TEAM wrote:15 Rob Kearney, 14 Andrew Trimble, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Iain Henderson, 5 Paul O'Connell (c), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.

16 Sean Cronin, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Martin Moore, 19 Rhys Ruddock, 20 Jordi Murphy, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Paddy Jackson, 23 Fergus McFadden.

ITALY TEAM wrote:15 Luke McLean, 14 Angelo Esposito, 13 Michele Campagnaro, 12 Gonzalo Garcia, 11 Leonardo Sarto, 10 Luciano Orquera, 9 Tito Tebaldi, 8 Robert Barbieri, 7 Paul Derbyshire, 6 Joshua Furno, 5 Marco Bortolami (c), 4 Quentin Geldenhuys, 3 Martin Castrogiovanni, 2 Leonardo Ghiraldini, 1 Alberto de Marchi

16 David Giazzon, 17 Michele Rizzo, 18 Lorenzo Cittadini, 19 Antonio Pavanello, 20 Manoa Vosawai, 21 Edoardo Gori, 22 Tommaso Allan, 23 Andrea Masi

If we win this game by a larger margin than the winners of the other two games achieve then it's very, very simple- we set up a Cup Final for ourselves in Paris to win the Championship. We do already have the best points difference but we have a chance to settle the issue of points difference beyond all doubt and make this a very simple equation. An Ireland win in Paris, and we are champions. We are out to score and Joe Schmidt has named his strongest available team.

Italy have chosen to rotate their squad with half an eye on targeting the final game against England, Sergio Parisse is rested along with the first choice halfbacks in a team with a more experimental look. Tito Tebaldi and Andrea Masi make long awaited returns to the Italian match day squad and Luciano Orquera will hope to recapture the form which saw him perform so well in some famous Italian victories in the 2013 campaign.

There'll be plenty of applause for a retiring legend... but no room for sentiment. A ruthless and clinical performance is required.

Scotland won by catapulting the likes of Beattie, Lamont, Denton and Scott at Tomasino "Tommy the Turncoat" Allen all game long.

If Ireland do the same he'll break and you'll win by a truckload at the Aviva.

I would probably be looking at;

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Devin Toner
5. Paul O'Connell
6. Iain Henderson
7. Peter O'Mahony*
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Conor Murray
10. Jonathon Sexton
11. Simon Zebo
12. Luke Marshall
13. Brian O'Driscoll
14. Andrew Trimble
15. Rob Kearney

16. Sean Cronin 17. Jack McGrath 18. Martin Moore 19. Donnacha Ryan 20. Chris Henry 21. Eoin Reddan 22. Paddy Jackson 23. Dave Kearney

*Chris Henry to 7 and Tommy O'Donnell to the bench if POM doesn't make it.

Radge that makes me think even more we need a big ball carrier in our back row.

Notch this would be a game made for Ferris, SOB and Heaslip.

As it stands Heaslip, Healy, O'Mahony (if he is fit) with the likes of Darcy, Kearney and Trimble thundering down that 9-10-12 channel should do nicely.

Ireland will not have to underestimate and think the game is won before kickoff. They are going to have to pick themselves up from a painful defeat. Italy are no pushover.

Never, but whilst previous games have been about a good defence and taking points when we can this is going to be about trying to dominate possession and territory and playing some attacking rugby in there 22.

I don't think we'll see as many changes here as some think - unless Bowe is fit to come back onto the right wing I think the starting 15 will be the same bar the front row, which may be freshened up.

Reddan, O'Donnell and Donnacha Ryan to come on to the bench maybe.

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Donnacha Ryan -is back fit and played well against Ospreys
5. Paul O'Connell
6. Peter O'Mahony*
7. Tommy O'Donnell - was not much in it to start but again Italy we need ball carriers and he is a better carrier than Henry
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Conor Murray
10. Jonathon Sexton
11. Simon Zebo
12. Luke Marshall
13. Brian O'Driscoll
14. Andrew Trimble
15. Rob Kearney

And if Holy Joe is through to rotating players than Kilcoyne should be on the bench.

I would be very disappointed if Bowe was parachuted back in with no form or match fitness to speak of. He's not ready.

I agree with some of the selections - and I do hope to see things mixed up a bit for the Italy game - but how anyone would select a team at this point in the 6Ns without Chris Henry is beyond me.

Henry for my money has been our outstanding backrow - nothing flash, but a real pest at the breakdown, and some important turn-over ball.

Leave the clever bits to the outside backs, and pick players who will ensure they get the ball.

Yeah it's tough call but there's a duplication of maybe O'Mahony and Henry playing a similar role and wanting another ball carrier. It's really 50/50, but I think Henry will be starting because Schmidt rates him highly.

O'Mahony is apparently a serious doubt.

Henderson for POM will be the only change and then only if POM is not fit

BlueMuff wrote:1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Donnacha Ryan -is back fit and played well against Ospreys
5. Paul O'Connell
6. Peter O'Mahony*
7. Tommy O'Donnell - was not much in it to start but again Italy we need ball carriers and he is a better carrier than Henry
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Conor Murray
10. Jonathon Sexton
11. Simon Zebo
12. Luke Marshall
13. Brian O'Driscoll
14. Andrew Trimble
15. Rob Kearney

And if Holy Joe is through to rotating players than Kilcoyne should be on the bench.

Hmm...

I'd be more inclined to go for:

1. Healy
2. Best (but bring on Cronin after 50, his pace and carrying is what we need)
3. Moore - don't see why not
4. Toner
5. POC
6. Henderson
7. POM (but if the game is won give TOD some decent gametime)
8. Heaslip
9. Murray (Reddan for second half)
10. Sexton (with Madigan on the bench to speed things up if required)
11. Zebo or Fitzgerald
12. Marshall
13. BOD
14. Trimble
15. Kearney

I said before the championship that squad development will be more important than results. That hasn't changed so I'd like to see the likes of Cronin, Moore, Henderson, TOD, Madigan, Marshall and possibly Henshaw given some gametime.

Heck, even Kidney rotated in the fourth round in 09, no excuses Joe..

Henderson for pom and Ryan to bench along with jordi. Jordi was selected for his carrying over Tod last week, so cant see JS flipfloping this week.
Our line out has been the most accurate in the 6 nations 94% - so expect Toner to be retained. Would like to see either Marshall or henshaw start and a change in the back 3.
When is earls due back? He/fitz are more likely starters in paris (if they get game time this weekend) so for that reason I would start one of those two against Italy rather Munsters answer to Jamie Heaslip.

Dont expect too many changes. As Luke Marshall was dropped completely from the matchday squad after the Scottish game it would be strange to see him parachuted in (not sure if BOD trusts him yet). Although given the mistake made by Darcy (and Rob Kearney) for the English try its kind of interesting that the same kind of forensic review isnt happening as happened to Luke after the Aus game.

Based on Hendersons cameo on Saturday he should really be starting this game.

ME-109 wrote:
Based on Hendersons cameo on Saturday he should really be starting this game.

Aw gees sure you wouldn't be writing O'Connell off yet? Some people are so fickle.

ME-109 wrote:Dont expect too many changes. As Luke Marshall was dropped completely from the matchday squad after the Scottish game it would be strange to see him parachuted in (not sure if BOD trusts him yet). .

Dont see that logic.

It is a straight head to head with D'Arcy.
One plays - the other is out of the squad because others provide better cover

...and that's why England should have lost!!!!!  So stuff yourself, Cyril ....you're talking schyte!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh?  This is Italy now????  - Oh right, I was just supporting Guns there on the EnglishvIreland thread and must have lost the run of myself.

Anyway - I've said it already on that English thread - Mucho points is needed - mucho points can be had if the players are honest about their ability versus Italy.  It's down to notons of self-worth and self-respect and not being afraid to think and know you are better.
Someone above, think it was TJ, suggested Ireland shouldn't think this is a game already won.  In other words, don't approach it with cockiness.  

Perhaps - but I say approach it as if we're preparing for either England or New Zealand again.  Did we think we hadn't enough to make them sweat?  Don't change our mentality simply because we're facing Italy.  We go at them with the intensity that we'd bring to a game against SH opposition.  We don't let them breathe for 80 solid minutes.  We punch, we punch, we punch.... we grind their will down and we allow ourselves to be ruthless.  

We did it in 2007 when all of a sudden we didn't have the leisure to play our usual up-the-jumper stuff with them.  We needed points and we chased them with a no-nonsense approach that damn near worked.  That day proved to me what I had been saying all along was true - we only muddle around with Italy because of some kind of latent feelings of needing to respect them and give them a game.

We have the ammunition to kill them - we need to kill them if we are genuine about our intentions of being a side to reckon with.  If we find we can't do it then, for me, that will be the biggest hurdle we've hit so far this 6N - because it will say so much about our psychology as a team and Nation. We'll be back as also-rans in the game of greed. 

If we lose or have a close, scrappy, low scoring winning game with them, then Schmidt has a Long, Long way to go.... and I'll be sour as a bag of famished cats!

I think we need to be patient, grind Italy down over the fist 40-50 min the way we did against Scotland and Wales - then use our bench and try and put a points on late on if the result is in the bag.

We certainly can't go out thinking we'll just score tries for fun or we'll lose the game - the game plan has to be about winning first and foremost.

If we can accrue a 2 score lead we can think about maximising the points difference but not before.

Italy will be hurting after last week and we could see a backlash. They'll be desperate to avoid the wooden spoon.

We don't go out thinking we can score tries for fun...we go out knowing it.  Simple fact.  

We have the ability to apply such pressure in the first 30 minutes (if our minds are on the job and we're psyched to do it) that we can score three or four tries.  Not cockiness, knowledge of our ability when in the right mood against such a side such as Italy.

I think we do this respect for Italy way way too much in Ireland.  And we pay the price for it.  And it seems in the media, and here, over the next two weeks, we'll be doing it again.  We'll never learn.

As regards patience.  We don't have the leisure for patience.  Waiting for a second half to score the tries and points we might need?  We don't have the leisure to think we're so good.  We need 80 minutes of punishment on them at a pace they can't live with.

Healy - Best - Moore
Toner - POC
TOD - Heaslip - Henderson (assuming POM is out)
Murray - Sexton
Zebo - Marshall - BOD - Trimble
Kearney

Cronin - McGrath - Ross - Ryan - Murphy - Reddan - Jackson - D Kearney

Don't see the issue with Marshall. 50/50 call and would be a bit surprised if he doesn't get the nod for this one. That said, he had a fairly poor game against Treviso which could hit his chances.

I do think what rodders is saying and what SF is saying is not incompatible. We can back ourselves to score the tries without completely throwing caution to the wind. We'll pick our moments. Some set moves off line outs, if executed correctly, could break them. We've seen backs moves off the lineout against England and forwards moves with the maul against Wales so if we get a chance to kick to the corner in the first half, I hope we back ourselves and go for the full 7 points.

Fly I think we have the capacity to score late on because we have a stronger bench than Italy and we can grind them down physically. We're fitter than they are too I believe.

I'm not convinced we have a huge amount of firepower to score against structured defences in the backs.

Provincially we aren't seeing a lot of tries and creativity this year...except from Jared Payne maybe.

Notch wrote:Don't see the issue with Marshall. 50/50 call and would be a bit surprised if he doesn't get the nod for this one.

Well except its not 50:50 because Schmidt has went for D'arcy 90% of the time when both are fit.

BOD doesn't seem to like playing alongside him(probably because he can't keep up in attack ) so that's a big problem for him at the minute.

Notch wrote:I would probably be looking at;

1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Devin Toner
5. Paul O'Connell
6. Iain Henderson
7. Peter O'Mahony*
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Conor Murray
10. Jonathon Sexton
11. Simon Zebo
12. Luke Marshall
13. Brian O'Driscoll
14. Andrew Trimble
15. Rob Kearney

16. Sean Cronin 17. Jack McGrath 18. Martin Moore 19. Donnacha Ryan 20. Chris Henry 21. Eoin Reddan 22. Paddy Jackson 23. Dave Kearney

*Chris Henry to 7 and Tommy O'Donnell to the bench if POM doesn't make it.

 
Thats the team I would go with.
Really hope we can rack up a good points tally.

rodders wrote:

Notch wrote:Don't see the issue with Marshall. 50/50 call and would be a bit surprised if he doesn't get the nod for this one.

Well except its not 50:50 because Schmidt has went for D'arcy 90% of the time when both are fit.

BOD doesn't seem to like playing alongside him(probably because he can't keep up in attack ) so that's a big problem for him at the minute.

D'Arcy has started 4 games, Marshall has started 2- D'Arcy did have some kind of stomach bug before the Scotland game but he was fit in the week leading up to it. I think it's clear Schmidt sees D'Arcy as the marginal first choice but is grooming Marshall to take his shirt. I'd be surprised if he doesn't start against Italy before D'Arcy comes back in Paris. Then Marshall in for the summer tour, fitness permitting.

Could be Notch but there is a clear preference for D'arcy in the big games when both are fit.

I wouldn't be shocked to see Marshall but the suggestion from Schmidt/BOD was that he had to go and work on things (which I don't necessarily agree with). I think D'arcy is clearly seen as first choice.

Marshall will definitely start other games this year though but not convinced it will be against Italy.

Where is this BOD stuff coming from?

And Marshall is definitely not the finished article, he definitely has to work on a few things in his game but so far he's been given opportunities in a green shirt- couldn't ask for more than that really. I hope he is picked.

rodders wrote:Fly I think we have the capacity to score late on because we have a stronger bench than Italy and we can grind them down physically. We're fitter than they are too I believe.

I'm not convinced we have a huge amount of firepower to score against structured defences in the backs.

Provincially we aren't seeing a lot of tries and creativity this year...except from Jared Payne maybe.

 

Rodders, we have the forwards and the kicking prowess (Wales form anyway) to keep pinging Italy into their own half quite quite early in a game (I'd say even from the off).  You don't have to muscle them into tiredness over 40 minutes.  You don't have to allow the tempo to rise gradually.  You play a defined and structured game of consistent intensity and pace and place them close to their own tryline.  Test them and their willingness to keep us out early rather than hoping we have the ammo to kill them off in a second half.

A second half can become a dangerous beast when you're finding the plan isn't going according to - plan.  You get edgy, you start looking at the clock...and yep, it's running out and you have no third 'half' coming to rescue your best prepared plans.

England (if still in contention) on the last day will go for their jugular from the first minute and will try to sustain that pressure for the 80.  They know the value of points scoring and how early you have to be serious about doing so. You can only correct a plan that isn't working when you have given yourself enough time to do so.

I'd even say at this stage that the Italy game is the one where most of the players who played England should actually stay in situ - and then give them their break (even bench duty) in the final game against France.  Italy is the game where we show we're serious about the idea of a Championship (knowing the teams around us and what they'll be thinking).  If we only go for a 'safe' win, then we're not near ready to compete at the highest level.

Notch wrote:Where is this BOD stuff coming from?

The man himself was quite back handed with his compliments after the Scotland game, inferring that Marshall wasn't quite ready.

Fly I think you are misinterpreting what I am saying.

Its not a matter of choice, I think we will struggle to break Italy down early on and chances will come late on when they tire and the game breaks up.

I don't believe we have the players to score at will - we need to keep the score board ticking over with place kicks and take chances when they come.

I think our defence is strong so can see us over the 80min pulling off a comfortable victory with a healthy score line if we are patient and pragmatic.

BOD doesn't trust Marshall period.
You can see that from the way he plays alongside him.

BOD is the problem though not Marshall, he needs to have faith.
D'Arcy he does trust and therefore he concentrats on his own game and plays better.

When BOD goes I think Marshall will become first choice

I think its because he looks a bit like Trimble, it must be a causeway cost thing.

Given that he's defined the poition over the years (until the big lads showed up all across the world!) and given that a team mate of his is already a coach (O'Gara).  I think if BOD, with 15 year's experience, is saying a player needs more honing at 12 then I'd take note that he might have an opinion that matters.

I wouldn't think he's picking the team!  But he'll be telling Schmidt about gametime feelings - an extra in-game strategy computer as it were - giving Schmidt feedback.

geoff998rugby wrote:BOD doesn't trust Marshall period.
You can see that from the way he plays alongside him.

BOD is the problem though not Marshall, he needs to have faith.
D'Arcy he does trust and therefore he concentrats on his own game and plays better.

When BOD goes I think Marshall will become first choice  

Thats probably true but in fairness BOD and Darce have played approx 50 caps for county and a massive amount for club. Its to be expected that they will have a better unity.

rodders wrote:Fly I think you are misinterpreting what I am saying.

Its not a matter of choice, I think we will struggle to break Italy down early on and chances will come late on when they tire and the game breaks up.

I don't believe we have the players to score at will - we need to keep the score board ticking over with place kicks and take chances when they come.

I think our defence is strong so can see us over the 80min pulling off a comfortable victory with a healthy score line if we are patient and pragmatic.

Couldn't agree with the first bit at all, Rodders; and that's possibly the fundamental difference in our analysis of gameplans and when the side might try something and when they shouldn't.  

We scored 23 points (two tries) against Wales in the first half last season with an intensity level that blew them off the field (because they were Wales and we were up for the challenge)
We scored three tries against the All Blacks last autumn in another first half ruthless display of spite and energy (because they were the ABs and we were up for the challenge)
We didn't wait to break down anyone - and Italy is no Wales and no New Zealand.  You lack faith in us when we're up for the challenge, Rodders.

Second bit.  What would be a healthy scoreline against Italy - given that England will know it in advance of their shot at Italy?  What kind of scoreline do you think would be safe - given that even if we win in Paris, it's unlikely to be a massive win? (could be! - but unlikely to be)

geoff998rugby wrote:BOD doesn't trust Marshall period.
You can see that from the way he plays alongside him.

BOD is the problem though not Marshall, he needs to have faith.
D'Arcy he does trust and therefore he concentrats on his own game and plays better.

When BOD goes I think Marshall will become first choice  

You just answered your own question from earlier. Marshall only made the Scottish game because Darcy was sick. it is clear that Schmidt is going for Darcy/Bod for the whole six nations it is not 50/50 call. Not in Schmidts mind anyhow.

Can't see Henderson starting in the backrow if POM is not fit. He's a decent ball carrier but he is currently covering lock off the bench. It will be between O'Donnell/Murphy who have provided back row cover off the bench thus far or for a bolter he could be looking at Ruddock who has to be knocking on the door.
Moore/Marshall/Zebo/Henderson will all be in the mix for a start I would have thougt with possibly Moore and Marshall having the biggest shouts.

SecretFly wrote:
Second bit.  What would be a healthy scoreline against Italy - given that England will know it in advance of their shot at Italy?  What kind of scoreline do you think would be safe - given that even if we win in Paris, it's unlikely to be a massive win? (could be! - but unlikely to be)

Well surely that depends how England, wales and France get on next week. I think 15-20 points winning margin against Italy will put France out of the picture anyway, if they manage to beat the Scots.

Yeah I think a 15 points win against Italy and any win in Paris takes the title.

BlueMuff wrote:1. Cian Healy
2. Rory Best
3. Mike Ross
4. Donnacha Ryan -is back fit and played well against Ospreys
5. Paul O'Connell
6. Peter O'Mahony*
7. Tommy O'Donnell - was not much in it to start but again Italy we need ball carriers and he is a better carrier than Henry
8. Jamie Heaslip
9. Conor Murray
10. Jonathon Sexton
11. Simon Zebo
12. Luke Marshall
13. Brian O'Driscoll
14. Andrew Trimble
15. Rob Kearney

And if Holy Joe is through to rotating players than Kilcoyne should be on the bench.

Basically anyone from Munster who is eligable. Maybe ROG should get a call up too?

It'd take a coach with balls to pick ROG next week Joe.

Frances scoreline doesn't really matter as far as we're concerned- if they beat us, we don't win the championship no matter what our points difference is and vice versa.

Only one of Ireland/France and England/Wales can finish on 8 points so we're only concerned about the points difference of the winner between England and Wales and they are only concerned about the points difference of the winner between Ireland and France. The losers of those two key games will be pretty much out of it.

Not ROG but I would think about calling up/back another Munster man...

Wittle Stringer. Now there's a hive of bees we could do with to get rid of the slack between forward momentum and sad backs looking at the opposition defences stretch out on them as they wait and wait.

Am I being too pointed about the position I think needs serious work on for SchmidtBall to start working properly?

SecretFly wrote:Not ROG but I would think about calling up/back another Munster man...

Wittle Stringer.  Now there's a hive of bees we could do with to get rid of the slack between forward momentum and sad backs looking at the opposition defences stretch out on them as they wait and wait.

Am I being too pointed about the position I think needs serious work on for SchmidtBall to start working properly?

No...you are clutching at straws...

rodders wrote:It'd take a coach with balls to pick ROG next week Joe.

Priceless!! ROG should say that to him for the laugh.

Submachine wrote:Can't see Henderson starting in the backrow if POM is not fit. .

Ryan would cover 2nd row if Henderson plays

ME-109 wrote:

SecretFly wrote:Not ROG but I would think about calling up/back another Munster man...

Wittle Stringer.  Now there's a hive of bees we could do with to get rid of the slack between forward momentum and sad backs looking at the opposition defences stretch out on them as they wait and wait.

Am I being too pointed about the position I think needs serious work on for SchmidtBall to start working properly?

No...you are clutching at straws...

 Hey there ME.  Always the man on my mind as I do my little thought-exercises on that one. You always seem to appear just after one of them. Miraculous.

Nah - I'm being right.  And behind the wall of silence, I have a strange feeling you actually share it.... afterall, you're as dispappointed by the Schmidt attack plans as I am.  He just needs to upgrade the thinking and execution there, ME.  It just has to happen.

Rewatched the game...on the occasions we got the ball out wide there was space and we made ground. Unfortunately we spent an awful lot of time going up the middle and when we did go wide lets just say execution, speed of thought and just speed etc was missing.