Scotland - What Comprises Success Leading up to WC 2015?

After I was thinking about what a "successful" season for Glasgow and Edinburgh would be over on the banter thread, I turned my thoughts to Scotland. Dodson wants to win the WC but Frak that , what's success UP UNTIL the world cup itself?

Here's our schedule:
Summer Tour 2014
USA (a)
Canada (a)
Argentina (a)
South Africa (a)
Autumn internationals 2014
Argentina (h)
New Zealand (h)
Tonga (h)
6 nations 2015
France (a)
Wales (h)
Italy (h)
England (a)
Ireland (h)
World Cup Warm Ups (Order not yet decided?)
Italy (h)
Ireland (a)
France (a)
Italy (a)

What would be classify as a success for Vern Cotter? Has it got anything to do with the matches that we win or is it completely about building for the world cup?

For me they are one and the same. I feel like we need to get into the habit of being a top 8 side - the sides that ought to make the quarter finals - because currently we are not. I'd say come world cup time we want to be at or above 8 in the rankings. I know rankings are a sticky issue for many but to me they genuinely reflect, at least broadly, your country's performance in world rugby. Put it this way, you don't go down the rankings for winning, nor up the rankings for losing (over a course of 2-3 matches anyway!)

1 NEW ZEALAND 93.81
2 SOUTH AFRICA 89.34
3 AUSTRALIA 86.88
4 ENGLAND 85.68
5 IRELAND 82.13
6 WALES 80.70
7 FRANCE 80.07
8 SAMOA 77.34
9 ARGENTINA 76.44
10 SCOTLAND 75.16
11 FIJI 74.21
12 TGATONGA 73.21
13 JAPAN 72.06
14 ITALY 72.05
15 CANADA 70.75

Being at 8 in the rankings is eminently achievable. I'd go as far to say that we should be winning at a bare minimum 40% of our matches against higher ranked opposition (comprising 4 home, 6 away) and all against lower ranked opposition (comprising 3 home 3 away - the away games are Can, USA & Italy world cup warm, the latter of which is the only one I'd accept a loss). That'd neatly have us at 8th or above by the time the WC comes around anyway.

What 40% of matches should be winning against higher ranked opposition?

Ireland - home - 6 Nations
One of Ireland / France - away - WC warm up
Argentina - home - Autumn AIs
One other (NZ home, Argentina away, South Africa away, Wales home, England away, France away x 2)

Thoughts?

Why Ireland at home? You also have Italy and Wales at home in the next six nations why not Wales or Italy?

Also realistically in the WC Scotland will be looking to place 2nd in their group. The runner up in that group will play either England, Wales or Australia.

If your goals are with the WC in mind then you should be looking to beat England, Wales, Australia and Samoa who are also in your group.

I think Scotland's goal should be to make it to a semi final. As I see it Scotland have the players and hopefully the management (Cotter) for this goal to be realistic provided Cotter can get the team organised enough in the timeframe he has.

IMO Scotland have the players to beat any team in the world with the exception possibly of NZ.

Keeping 15 men on the pitch against Wales. For 80 minutes.

Great post effie. I really don't understand those rankings. Never heard of this TGATONGA nation either - they must be really good to be that high up!

What they do show though is that there is a clear top 7, and everyone from 8 - 14 (what a fall from grace for Italy) could reasonably expect to beat each other.

I agree with you that an ultimate high level goal should be top 8, as that would mean we have beaten everyone ranked 8 or below, and might have pulled off the odd big result against he top 7. That is a far more sensible goal than winning the world cup.

I'm with you on judging Cotter - if we are top 8 by the time the WC starts we will be in a good position.

It would really be a remarkable achievement if he can manage that.

Under a new coach with some skilled players coming through i would say Scotland should be looking at the follwing:

Summer Tour 2014
USA (a) - Win
Canada (a) - Win
Argentina (a) - Win
South Africa (a) - Give a very good account...show passion,physicality and a little bit of skilled play. Keep the scoreline close

Autumn internationals 2014
Argentina (h) - Win
New Zealand (h) - See SA above...but improved skills
Tonga (h) - Win

6 nations 2015 - I think Scotland should be looking to win at least 3 of these games this season if they're 2014 prep under the new manager has gone accordingly.
France (a)
Wales (h)
Italy (h)
England (a)
Ireland (h)

World Cup Warm Ups (Order not yet decided?)
Italy (h) - Win
Ireland (a) ?
France (a) ?
Italy (a) - Win

GeordieFalcon wrote:Under a new coach with some skilled players coming through i would say Scotland should be looking at the follwing:

Summer Tour 2014
USA (a) - Win
Canada (a) - Win
Argentina (a) - Win
South Africa (a) - Give a very good account...show passion,physicality and a little bit of skilled play. Keep the scoreline close

Autumn internationals 2014
Argentina (h) - Win
New Zealand (h) - See SA above...but improved skills
Tonga (h) - Win

6 nations 2015 - I think Scotland should be looking to win at least 3 of these games this season if they're 2014 prep under the new manager has gone accordingly.
France (a)
Wales (h)
Italy (h)
England (a)
Ireland (h)

World Cup Warm Ups (Order not yet decided?)
Italy (h) - Win
Ireland (a) ?
France (a) ?
Italy (a) - Win

If we had those results and performances that would probably be Scotland's best ever season in the professional era.

Would be amazing, but probably unlikely!

Possibly RDW, but the question was what would be success leading up to the WC. And personally under a new coach, and you have got some good talent coming through...i think this is a reasonable ask.

Personally i think next seasons 6n is going to more open than ever before. Any one literally could beat anyone.

As an indicator of progress you should be looking to see:
Summer - Wins against Canada & USA, at worst a narrow loss to Argentina possibly a win and not getting completely tonked against SA.
Autumn Ints. - Wins against Argentina and Tonga and a good fight against NZ.
6 N's - At least two wins as a minimum, Italy + a.n. other and close games v the rest.
RWC warm ups - Wouldn't read too much into these as this is chance to try new tactics, player combinations, etc. but no huge defeats.
RWC itself get out of pool and see where it goes - an England V Scotland QF just after the "Yes" vote might be tasty.

Scotland should be back at 8th spot in the rankings. No way should we lose any game to any team ranked below us. That should be our aim.

Even France are there for the taking with their flakey performances

fingers corssed that cotter can get our boys playing to thier potenial quick smart

munkian wrote:Keeping 15 men on the pitch against Wales. For 80 minutes.

The OP wants what constitutes 'success', not a 'bl00dy miracle'

Back into the top 8 in the rankings, 3rd or higher in the 6N, playing decent attacking rugby with well thought out tactics to suit our players, playing with pride.

If scottish rugby can minimise the amount if pisses me off that'll be a success in my book. This covers a wide range of areas like not getting gubbed on the field, and not letting Scott Johnson talk ever.

Tattie Scones RRN wrote:

munkian wrote:Keeping 15 men on the pitch against Wales. For 80 minutes.

The OP wants what constitutes 'success', not a 'bl00dy miracle'

My bad   

When was the last match that happened by the way ?

I reckon the following. I'm trying to be realistic, in that while Scotland do have the potential to be a good side I don't think we should make statements like "for the AIs to be considered a success they must win all three, anything else is a failure" (not that anyone has of course).

Summer tours: the bare minimum should be two wins (Canada and USA) and a close loss to Argentina, so a success would be three wins (Argentina) and a good account vs SA.

AI: should win two games. Success would be a couple of good wins and a good performance vs NZ.

6N: bare minimum would be to beat Italy. Can't see them getting much joy in either of the away games TBH (though who knows where France will be at this time next year), but should they win one of the Wales/Ireland games I think they will have had a decent tournament.

WC warm-ups: always hard to judge as you're never sure how teams will approach these anyway: some may give fringe players a chance, others won't. I would view a success as beating Italy home and away, and giving good performances in France and Ireland.

I think at this point, a return to the top 8 and establishing themselves there is a decent target, I don't think Scotland right now should be looking much higher. Get the basis right, and build from there.

I've looked myself, not as bad as I thought

2014 - Hogg - Red

2013 - None !   

2012 - De Luca - Yellow, Lamont - Yellow,

2011 - Bradley Davies - Yellow, Byrne - Yellow   Scotland 6-24 Wales

2010 - No cards   

2009 - Geoff Cross - Yellow

2008 None

2007 - None AND Scotland won.

2006 - Murray - Red, Gough - Yellow

2005 - None

Summer Tour:
Assuming Argentina are not at full strength three wins should be the bare minimum.

AIs:
Argentina will be stronger, but at home Scotland should be looking for two wins.

6Ns:
Two wins could probably be deemed a success. 3 wins would be fantastic.

RWC Warfmups:
Results largely irrelevant. Will be a success if Scotland enter the RWC and everyone knows the strongest team and the back-ups.

munkian wrote:I've looked myself, not as bad as I thought

2014 - Hogg  - Red

2013 - None !   

2012 -   De Luca - Yellow, Lamont - Yellow,

2011 - Bradley Davies - Yellow, Byrne - Yellow   Scotland 6-24 Wales

2010 - No cards   

2009 - Geoff Cross - Yellow

2008 None

2007 - None AND Scotland won.

2006 - Murray - Red, Gough - Yellow

2005 - None

Munkian

Scotland had 2 yellow cards in 2010 during THAT MATCH where Scotland were 75 points ahead with 6 minutes to go and still lost.

There wasn't enough time during the 2013 match for any cards as 69 minutes of the 80 minutes were scrums (and subsequent penalties).

They did ? Stupid BBC.

2010 was bad. I was on the absinthe at one point. From despair to where

2006 - That was when Scott murray was pinged for "kicking"???

Murray kicked Gough in the face, Gough hit him   

GunsGerms wrote:Why Ireland at home? You also have Italy and Wales at home in the next six nations why not Wales or Italy?

Also realistically in the WC Scotland will be looking to place 2nd in their group. The runner up in that group will play either England, Wales or Australia.

If your goals are with the WC in mind then you should be looking to beat England, Wales, Australia and Samoa who are also in your group.

I think Scotland's goal should be to make it to a semi final. As I see it Scotland have the players and hopefully the management (Cotter) for this goal to be realistic provided Cotter can get the team organised enough in the timeframe he has.

IMO Scotland have the players to beat any team in the world with the exception possibly of NZ.

Italy are below us in the rankings so not included in the section you're referring to , but I have said we need to beat Italy in the 6N too.

Although Ireland are 6N champions I still fancy our chances against them more than Wales, simply because Wales seem to have the beating of us. I don't know , their particular style seems to suit playing Scotland and we always play farcical against them. I'd say we're more likely to beat France & England at home than Wales if we were playing them.

RDW_Scotland wrote:

GeordieFalcon wrote:Under a new coach with some skilled players coming through i would say Scotland should be looking at the follwing:

Summer Tour 2014
USA (a) - Win
Canada (a) - Win
Argentina (a) - Win
South Africa (a) - Give a very good account...show passion,physicality and a little bit of skilled play. Keep the scoreline close

Autumn internationals 2014
Argentina (h) - Win
New Zealand (h) - See SA above...but improved skills
Tonga (h) - Win

6 nations 2015 - I think Scotland should be looking to win at least 3 of these games this season if they're 2014 prep under the new manager has gone accordingly.
France (a)
Wales (h)
Italy (h)
England (a)
Ireland (h)

World Cup Warm Ups (Order not yet decided?)
Italy (h) - Win
Ireland (a) ?
France (a) ?
Italy (a) - Win

If we had those results and performances that would probably be Scotland's best ever season in the professional era.

Would be amazing, but probably unlikely!

Yeah I think we think alike. I'm talking about realistic goals. Just getting our win ratio up to 50% yes 50% would be a good start. We do tend to play people higher than us in the rankings - ofc that's partly because we've fared the worst out of our "peer group" if you exclude Italy, since professionalism.

Scotland should beat Canada, USA & Argentina, whose main players will be playing in The Rugby Championship.

S.A. will be similarly disadvantaged, but their back up players will still be strong.

In the AIs two wins is the minimum. Also take on NZ with the same fight that Ireland and England showed last year.

In the 6N Scotland have only had one year (2006) when they won more games than they lost. Emulating 2006 would also be a big plus.

Good luck.

For me, a sign of progress will be the coaching staff putting out a team armed with a clear, well-thought-out gameplan that plays to our strengths, filled with players selected on the basis of form, and in their correct positions. From now until the RWC, we need consistency in selection in order to build a group of players that are completely comfortable playing at Test level with one another, and with the gameplan presented to them. We have enough quality in our player pool to produce a good team, we just need someone to apply the correct approach.

If that happens, the results will come. We should be beating teams ranked below us with ease. The games vs Argentina will be tough, bit winnable. We need to start caused the teams high above us in the rankings some serious problems, too.

For me I think we'll qualify for the QFs at the RWC and that should be our target LT.

Before that I'm looking for performance..... not getting smashed but then getting the odd rare scalp when it rains heavily. Playing positive rugby, backing the players to put in a performance and not playing terrible damage limitation rugby. If they lose to a team like AUS, IRE when they could have sneaked a cheeky victory, fine..... lets build a proper side capable of winning whatever the weather, whatever the side.... not thinking... its dry and sunny..... shi*!!!

I really fear for the game in 10 years time. 10 years today aren't going to be looking at the game and thinking... got to get myself a piece of this action!!!!

Half these chaps grew up with the Hastings brothers, Rob Wainwright, Alan Tait, Gregor Townsend, Gary Armstrong..... rugby was exciting and it drew in the crods and the fans from spheres outside of their traditional circles.... thats how I got into the sport. We won GSs, had a good representation with the lions, got the the SF of the RWC and went on a tour to NZ where we almost took a scalp in a closely fought series. We were seriously respected by all.

Today kids are greeted with 0-50 drubbings, half empty crowds and won't want to be associated with sorry to say... a bunch of losers. That's not me insulting the players, its the honest truth.

There is talent in this side... there is. Talent wise I am more happy with this side than any other in a decade... but talent alone is not enough. Guys have to start performing. They put too much pressure on themselves for starters. They are the first chaps to drop their heads.... you never see a bok drop his head.... I can think of once perhaps (2002 vs. ENG and they reacted by going all fight club).

Mark

AsLongAsBut100ofUs wrote:Mark Marco

Polo