Djokovic - best returner of serve...

...so they trot out endlessly - "Widely regarded as the game's best returner, Djokovic..."

Who are all these people who widely regard Djokovic as the best returner?
The media has repeated this old line so many times it gets stated as if it's the truth.
Amongst active players, all surfaces:

Career 1st Serve Return Points Won:
#1 - Rafael Nadal
#2 - David Ferrer
#3 - Andy Murray
#4 - Novak Djokovic

Career 2nd Serve Return Points Won:
#1 - Rafael Nadal
#2 - Andy Murray
#3 - David Ferrer
#4 - Novak Djokovic

Career Break Points Converted:
#1 - Rafael Nadal
#2 - Novak Djokovic
#3 - David Ferrer
#4 - Volandri (!!)

Career Return Games Won:
#1 - Rafael Nadal
#2 - David Ferrer
#3 - Novak Djokovic
#4 - Andy Murray

These stats are easily accessible to media on the ATP website - so why is Djokovic held aloft as the best returner?

Probably because Djoko's return, as a single shot, is more potent. Rafa's return (like his serve in a way) is good enough to get him into a rally, which he can then go on to win.

I would like to see the percentage of returns made. I think that gives a true reflection of the claim.

Because of what he does with the return.

All the stats above relate to the point being won, not the return itself.

I don't think anyone on the tour returns with such consistent depth as Djokovic.

Federer, responding to a question about holding serve during early rounds in Miami, said:

But then again, you know, this wasn't Andre Agassi on the other side, or Djokovic.

Nadal said after AO12:

"Is something unbelievable how he returns, no?  His return probably is one of the best of the history.  That's my opinion, no?  I never played against a player who's able to return like this."

I believe Djokovic's percentages are fairly even across the 3 surfaces whereas Nadal's must surely be padded from clay?

I dont know about return, but in rallies I see nole now stronger than rafa

They both put pressure on you differently, I'd say - with Nole, it's more a case of if he gets a good read on it, you're In trouble immediately, with Nadal, if he gets it back, and it's a "neutral ball"... the point is a long way away. I think Rafa is well capable of big returns, he just doesn't have to.

Novak and Murrays returns are scary, they treat mens serves like the Wiliiams sisters treat womens serves, its frightening. Those stats tell you about how good each is on the return game , not just the return itself. Its a testament to how good Nadal is at putting pressure on return games depsite not having nearly as potent a return.

Highly irrelevant stats to the actual context of the question, like HMM mentioned those stats point to points won and not points won just based on return.

@ HMM   Great explanation.

This the stat does not show who is the best returner as interesting that these stats show clay couters high up -

Ferrer was the surprise for me, as I think he is not considered one of the best returners, but is a grinder and grinder and grinder when into the point

Riskysports wrote:This the stat does not show who is the best returner as interesting that these stats show clay couters high up -

Ferrer was the surprise for me, as I think he is not considered one of the best returners, but is a grinder and grinder and grinder when into the point

I've heard Murray speak highly of his return, as has Federer.

An objective point. But every time i watch tennis, the ex-pros mostly say that Djokovic and Murray are the best return of serve players on the tour.

That is good enough for me.

didn't Roger once call David the best returner in the game?

kingraf wrote:didn't Roger once call David the best returner in the game?

Changed his mind now  

This is a bit better than the ATP stats, but has the analysis for a specific match only. ATP does show the graphics regularly during matches.

http://www.changeovertennis.com/return-serve-analysis-novak-djokovic-defeats-roger-federer-paris-semifinals/

skyeman wrote:

kingraf wrote:didn't Roger once call David the best returner in the game?

Changed his mind now  

Yup, the best returner of the serve is Mirka, every time Roger served her she returned back with twin winners.   

The OP analysis does not work on many levels.  First and foremost, as many have pointed out, the data does not measure return itself but the return game overall.  Rafa is fantastic from a neutral position, which will give him good numbers even if his return alone is not at the very top.

In fact, the data is somewhat biased even when measuring the quality of the return game itself.  Players that play relatively larger portion of their matches on clay will tend to look better than they really are because it is easier to get better percentages on clay.  As an extreme example, suppose player A plays all their games on clay, and player B plays all their games on hard court.  If both have the same return game win %, then player B likely has a better return game.

I also think looking at these numbers over the entire career is somewhat misleading too - it can give undue weight to bad performances early in the career or later in the career, whereas when people think of a player as "best in something", they will mostly mean that they were best when and around their peak, rather than that their long run average was best.

As a sidenote, here are the top 4 for career return games won (among active players) by surface:

Career Clay Court Return Games Won:
#1 Nadal
#2 Ferrer
#3 Djokovic
#4 Volandri

Career Grass Court Return Games Won:
#1 Hewitt
#2 Murray
#3 Djokovic
#4 Federer

Career Hard Court Return Games Won
#1 Murray
#2 Djokovic
#3 Hewitt
#4 Ferrer

Great stats, SB. I note Djokovic is in the top three across all surfaces, Murray top two across two surfaces, and Rafa only on the list for clay.

Good stuff guys and some very good counters.

The stats are the stats and reflect whole careers...yes clay stats are good for Nadal but all the top guys play more HC events than clay, Nadal's included...6/9 Masters alone are on HC, 2/4 slams.
I also dont pay much credence to grass returning stats within the context of a career given they play so few matches on the surface compared to their overall careers...Djokovic has played just 68 grass matches, so they play <10% matches on grass, his clay total is 25%...leaving >65% on HC. Even for Nadal, his clay matches are only 40% of his total, >50% for him on HC.

Djokovic has great consistency across the surfaces nonetheless and is of course right up at the top of returners but until we see stats for points won from returns alone the placement as being 'best' returner is subjective. My OP stats were not made to anoint Nadal there, but to counter the oft made assumption Djokovic is the best ever. I still believe Agassi was the best returner (i.e. using my subjective assessment of points won from returns) at a time when surfaces were so much quicker than today where most guys are getting probably more time to get a look on the ball plus it's bouncing a lot higher making aggressive returns easier too.

I'd go for Agassi and Connors as well being slightly ahead of Djoko, just from what I remember.
The 'Djoko is the best ever' line is from the same media over-hype as 'golden era', 'best rally you'll ever see', 'best forehand winner you'll ever see', 'best match you'll ever see', the latter three of which seem to crop up on a weekly basis.

...yep Connors had a fantastic BH blocked return. In fact blocked/flat returns are vastly under-rated in the modern game actually...but are used less because they're more difficult due to staying lower over the net. Modern poly strings of course also make returning SO much easier now too...with added spin. Agassi didn't switch to poly strings until 2003 (33 years old by then).

Haha, yes...and all those things said by Petchy at every match he commentates...."wasn't that just about the best ralley EVER!!!!". Yes Petch, yawnnn...

Yes, I agree, the "best ever" line is usually a bit silly.

I think it's fair to say that Djokovic, Agassi and Connors stand out in their eras as having particularly good returns.

If I had to pick one, I'd probably say Agassi because he made his mark in a period when courts were faster and faced some truly incredible servers.

lydian wrote: In fact blocked/flat returns are vastly under-rated in the modern game

I think the blocked return is actually an area where Djokovic is comparatively weak.

If you compare him to someone like Federer, he (Djokovic) has more difficulty with the really big servers.

Federer can block a serve and produce a return that isn't spectacular in it's own right but at least opens the point up for him.

Djokovic tends to go after the big serves the same way he goes after the more normal serves. If he catches it, he'll produce a great return but my impression is that he gets fewer back than Federer.

Yep agree with that HMM, Federer has better skills in returning faster serves due to his game being developed under faster conditions in general. I also think Nadal handles faster serves better than Djokovic too as his grips aren't as extreme...e.g. SW FH for Nadal, vs W FH grip for Djokovic. Federer's is more SW/Eastern so can block even better. Its very hard to hit a flat/blocked shot back with extreme grips hence why claycourters of the 90s couldn't play well on fast surfaces where blocked returns were a critical part of success. Given grips are getting less extreme for the next generation coming through we're going to see a lot more flatter hitting and blocked returns I believe...e.g. look at guys like Dimitrov and Thiem coming through - both of whom I expect to be Top5 players with one of them being a future #1.

Andre Agassi. Hands down. If we are voting of course.

Good thoughts, Lydian.

The nature of the younger guys is very different to the current crop. In Nadal, Djokovic and Murray you have three players who, even from young, had very good returns of serve.

I don't really see an equivalent in the younger players. That's probably a large factor in their comparatively slow move up the rankings. A good return is so important in today's game, although I suppose it's all relative.

He's lost his consistency since 2013, I find it hard to believe Murray and Ferrer have done better than him though    Its true Nadull wins more return points especially in the clay season. What are the stats for HC?

HM Murdoch wrote:

lydian wrote: In fact blocked/flat returns are vastly under-rated in the modern game

I think the blocked return is actually an area where Djokovic is comparatively weak.

If you compare him to someone like Federer, he (Djokovic) has more difficulty with the really big servers.

Federer can block a serve and produce a return that isn't spectacular in it's own right but at least opens the point up for him.

Djokovic tends to go after the big serves the same way he goes after the more normal serves. If he catches it, he'll produce a great return but my impression is that he gets fewer back than Federer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7tmJOATeoo

Losing that USO final to Murray has had a big effect, and then to Nadal the following year confirmed his decline. They have both worked out how to play against him since his 2011/12 new version. He should work with AGASSI to tune that part of his game   

^ The other reason for Murray/Nadal beating Djokovic at the US Open is that Djokovic's stamina in 2011 (and January 2012) was better than its been the last couple of years. Djokovic won the 2011 US Open and 2012 Australian Open because his stamina was superior to Nadal's stamina (even that 2011 US Open final, it was 4 sets but that 3rd set was so physical that only one man had energy left in the 4th set). And Djokovic played 10 hours at AO semis/final and outlasted Nadal. Fast-forward to 2013 and Djokovic is unable to play a Wimbledon semi and final without being dog tired (dog tired by the start of the final). Djokovic's stamina from early 2011 to January 2012 is the only time he's EVER had that kind of stamina.

I'm sure clay has beefed up Nadal's career stats in the Return category, basically because how Nadal Returns isn't a penalty on a clay court. When you look at the Return positions of Djokovic, Ferrer, Murray - and especially Agassi in his day - they all center their Return games around one essential: stay camped on or near the base line to take the ball early and take time away from the Server. Nadal does the reverse. He stands well behind the base line to create time for himself. On clay, Nadal is not only unhurt by this tactic - it actually pays dividends for him. As Federer pointed out long ago about clay: your Serve won't save you. He also said that on clay, the ball from the Serve doesn't come through to the Returner with the same kind of pace that it does off of a hard court. So when the Serves are, in general, less effective in coming through to the Returner in both pace and height, taking them early on the Return doesn't always yield the same rewards that such a tactic would on a faster surface with a more consistent bounce.

Federer did say that David Ferrer was the best Returner on the tour, but that was back in 2009 or so. He may have changed his view now. And Nadal did say Djokovic's Returns in that AO Final of 2012 were of another realm. Conversely, Djokovic made the same statement about Nadal after losing to him in Canada last year, saying he couldn't believe how hard Nadal was Returning his Serve. Which carried through to the US Open a month later.

Returning is a very messy aspect to rank. Even when Agassi was playing, it could be argued that Kucera was a better returner (but didn't win as much because his overall baseline game wasn't on the level of Agassi).

players that break the most times are probably the best returners

and djokovic is one of those for sure

It's between Novak and Agassi for me.

Agassi if he got his racquet on it was out of this world. Could make the ball sing. Off both wings. Novak's is not quite as beautiful or natural, but his anticipation is better and he's better at getting to serves than Agassi was.

So in terms of the shot itself, Agassi. If you include the anticipation and athleticism needed to get to serves, Djokovic.

I'd much rather have the best return game in the world than the best return.

It's an interesting debate for sure.

There are two different things to look at IMO here: first is how often you get the opponent's serve back into play, second is what you do with the return. I have a feeling Nadal concedes more aces than Djokovic (or indeed Murray), not 100% sure but I do get that impression.

For getting the serve back into play I would defo have Djokovic, his return wide on the backhand side is immense. People say Agassi did more with the return, but I wonder if he's helped by the era he played in here: Agassi faced a lot of players who serve-volleyed all the time, which may conversely have made it seem he did more with the return.

Looking at SB's post, is it possible also that we're wrongly leaving Murray and Hewitt out of this discussion? You could certainly say the return is a more important shot on HC or grass than it is on clay, and them and Djokovic make up the top 3 on those three surfaces in terms of return games won (though this isn't the best criteria as pointed out...).

For me the only real way to judge who is the best returner is by how many return games they have won. Return points won are good but not definitive as it only indicates the returner gets it to deuce or break point a fair few times but return games won mean they have got the job done more by breaking serve.

Mad for Chelsea wrote: I have a feeling Nadal concedes more aces than Djokovic (or indeed Murray), not 100% sure but I do get that impression.

Raonic Aces vs. Nadal
Tokyo 2010 (64 64): 14
Tokyo 2011 (75 63): 8
Barcelona 2013 (64 60): 6
Canada 2013 (62 62): 4
Miami 2014 (46 62 64): 8

Raonic Aces vs. Djokovic
Davis Cup 2013 (76 62 62): 10
Rome 2014 (67 76 63): 17
Roland Garros 2014 (75 76 64): 21

Isner Aces vs. Nadal
Indian Wells 2010 (75 36 63): 22
Madrid 2010 (75 64): 11
Roland Garros 2011 (64 67 67 62 64): 13
Cincinnati 2013 (76 76): 11

Isner Aces vs. Djokovic
Davis Cup 2010 (75 36 63 67 64): 24
Beijing 2010 (76 62): 7
Indian Wells 2012 (67 63 67): 20
Davis Cup 2013 (76 75 62 75): 17
Cincinnati 2013 (67 63 57): 9
Paris 2013 (67 61 62): 12
Indian Wells 2014 (75 67 61): 8

CaledonianCraig wrote:For me the only real way to judge who is the best returner is by how many return games they have won.

There is a difference between the best return of serve (as a single shot) and the best return game player (who may use a decent, but not great return, as a way to get into a rally). That's why Djoko is generally regarded as having the best return of serve of the current players.

kneel_before_nadal wrote:

Mad for Chelsea wrote: I have a feeling Nadal concedes more aces than Djokovic (or indeed Murray), not 100% sure but I do get that impression.

Raonic Aces vs. Nadal
Tokyo 2010 (64 64): 14
Tokyo 2011 (75 63): 8
Barcelona 2013 (64 60): 6
Canada 2013 (62 62): 4
Miami 2014 (46 62 64): 8

Raonic Aces vs. Djokovic
Davis Cup 2013 (76 62 62): 10
Rome 2014 (67 76 63): 17
Roland Garros 2014 (75 76 64): 21

Isner Aces vs. Nadal
Indian Wells 2010 (75 36 63): 22
Madrid 2010 (75 64): 11
Roland Garros 2011 (64 67 67 62 64): 13
Cincinnati 2013 (76 76): 11

Isner Aces vs. Djokovic
Davis Cup 2010 (75 36 63 67 64): 24
Beijing 2010 (76 62): 7
Indian Wells 2012 (67 63 67): 20
Davis Cup 2013 (76 75 62 75): 17
Cincinnati 2013 (67 63 57): 9
Paris 2013 (67 61 62): 12
Indian Wells 2014 (75 67 61): 8

someone has too much time on their hands

going on those stats (and taking into accounts surfaces etc.) there doesn't seem to be much in it. Maybe it's because I'm a Murray fan: having checked the stats he's never got into doube figures on the ace count vs Djokovic, whereas he's servedd as many as 22 vs Nadal (at the O2) and has got into double figures fairly regularly...

Good stats above.

I'm not sure it shows a huge difference once you consider surfaces and number of sets etc but clearly Djokovic is not ahead.

I think the choice of Isner and Raonic for the stats may perhaps do Novak no favours. As I mentioned a few posts above, I don't think Novak is great against the very biggest serves due to a comparatively weak blocked return.

My feeling (without having seen any stats) is that it is against the rest of the field i.e. the more 'normal' serves, that he separates himself.

Raonic Aces vs. Murray
Barcelona 2012 (46 67): 14
US Open 2012 (64 64 62): 14
Tokyo 2012 (36 76 67): 13
Indian Wells 2014 (64 57 36): 15

Isner Aces vs. Murray
Australian Open 2010 (76 63 62): 14
US Open 2011 (75 64 36 76): 17

Raonic Aces Per Match vs. Nadal: 8 (4xhard, 1xclay)
Raonic Aces Per Match vs. Djokovic: 16 (3xclay)
Raonic Aces Per Match vs. Murray: 14

Isner Aces Per Match vs. Nadal: 14.25
Isner Aces Per Match vs. Djokovic: 13.86
Isner Aces Per Match vs. Murray: 15.5

I think you have to look at the return of each player too aside from stats. How far does Nadal stand behind the baseline to return both first and second serves? It's quite a big distance and therefore he has more time to react, plus the serve will be a bit slower. By standing back he gets more in play but loses a bit of zip and surprise element. Because he's such a brilliant rallier once the ball's in play it's arguably 75-25 to him against most and against the big players probably 80-20.

Also, just to be a nuisance, I'd like to poke holes in those stats. Murray has only played Isner at majors. As they are BO5 instead of BO3, more sets are played, more games are played and therefore more aces are served. Nadal's only meeting with Isner at a major was when Isner served 13 aces, on a slower surface than hard courts. This is only 1 less than Murray's meeting with Isner at the AO.

Funny thing about surfaces......

Djokovic played 9 clay sets vs. Raonic, and conceded 48 aces.
Nadal played 9 hardcourt sets vs. Raonic and conceded 43 aces.

And Nadal played 5 clay sets vs. Isner, and conceded just 13 aces.

I do agree aces per set (or indeed per game) would be a much better choice than aces per match. Also a breakdown per surface etc. But really just picking two players (albeit just about the biggest servers out there) is always going to make analysis difficult. As I said, if you take Nadal and Djokovic's stats re aces conceded vs Murray, then Djokovic comes out on top fairly comfortably...

What about using someone independent like Roger?

JuliusHMarx wrote:Probably because Djoko's return, as a single shot, is more potent. Rafa's return (like his serve in a way) is good enough to get him into a rally, which he can then go on to win.

I agree. They are judging the shot quality rather than the outcome and in terms of putting yourself in the best position to win the point - Novak is the best returner

However, the counter argument is that if the doesn't return with interest and opponent is more likely to win the point than say against Nadal or Murray

Murray's second serve return is up there -but with the first serve he's often happy to get it into play, still behind in terms of chances to win - gently work his way through the point take over and strike, i.e. it's not as ruthless as Novak's approach. His latest match a classic example, rarely was he in control after the return, but he was also rarely out of the point

I think the percentage of returned serves needs to be looked at too (or unreturned, whatever's available).

Well it can't be Nadal on that performance!

Djokovic didn't touch Tsonga's first serve the entire third set yesterday, so it can't be him either...