Rugby Championship Prospects 2014

First topic message reminder :

The June Internationals came to an end this weekend and overall there was a familiar feel to the results, with the possible exception of Australia. Certainly results-wise Australia made a grand improvement on their 2013 Lions results. But the closeness of the first two tests in NZ sent the tongues wagging and it's fair to say both SA and Australia will approach their tests with NZ with a great deal of confidence. That said, the first test saw NZ put in a forgettable performance, Australia the second, SA the third. They all found ways to claw back a victory from a poor performance and the fact that they did so against an opposition that was playing very good rugby says a lot about the character of the teams. All three sides have many positives to take out of their tests though. Argentina once again showed that they simply don't have a big enough base to compete year round. They must target certain games and look to dominate those. It's many a bridge too far to ask them to compete in all of their matches.

Here is the scheduling for the RC tests this year.

Date Home Away Venue
16/08/2014 Australia - - New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney
16/08/2014 TBC South Africa Argentina Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
23/08/2014 TBC New Zealand Australia Eden Park, Auckland
23/08/2014 TBC Argentina - - South Africa TBC
06/09/2014 TBC Australia - - South Africa Patersons Stadium, Perth
06/09/2014 TBC New Zealand Argentina McLean Park, Napier
13/09/2014 TBC Australia - - Argentina Skilled Park, Gold Coast
13/09/2014 TBC New Zealand South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington
27/09/2014 TBC South Africa Australia Newlands, Cape Town
27/09/2014 TBC Argentina - - New Zealand TBC
04/10/2014 TBC South Africa New Zealand Ellis Park, Johannesburg
04/10/2014 TBC Argentina - - Australia TBC

Australia: Sydney is the key test for Australia. In a way it defines their tournament. In the past two years, they have lost this fixture. There is a sense that there is confidence across the Aussie franchises with the possible exception of the Reds. In a way, the pairing of Genia and Cooper are a microcosm of the Australian side. If they are firing on all cylinders, they prove to be an irresistible combination of confidence and guile. If they don't fire, they can be a liability that can be ruthlessly exposed. There is no guarantee that either one will appear for Australia. Yet like England, the 9, 10, 12, 13 axis that played against France would not be my preference if I were McKenzie. The Aussies showed against France in the first and third tests the threat they are when their forwards get a roll on. Players like Folau are a huge threat when they have time and space. The second test showed though what happens when you close that time and space down. The way to break this Aussie side down has been through its forwards. I see the gameplan of SA, NZ and Argentina won't differ in that approach this year. But the question remains to be seen, is Australia ready to combat that physicality up front this year?

South Africa: There is a lot to be excited about this SA side. Much like Folau, they have a playmaker in Le Roux who is both exciting to watch and night and day and a couple of planets beyond what they had in Kirchner. That breakout try from inside the 22 against Wales yesterday was breathtaking to watch and instead of breaking down in the middle of the field, Le Roux expertly linked up with his outside man to finish off the try. It looked easy what he did at pace but in years gone by such consummate ease was lacking from the SA backline with Kirchner putting his head down and burrowing straight into contact a symptom of brawn winning over brain. There is no doubt that Meyer wants to mix things up but there are still a few question marks. He has a few experienced warriors like Matfield back in the side but with another test against NZ at Ellis Park, will these players be up for some lung-sapping rugby? Is Meyer relying too much on overseas players and will that have an attritional effect on their ability to last 80 minutes at Ellis Park against a NZ side who will be intent on running on that amazing ground?

Argentina: The need for a domestic structure and experience at playing in the S15 seems to be pointed out more glaringly each year. There is much to like about this Argentina side with their set piece but the promise they have shown with their backs has yet to come to full fruition. In their first test away in SA they have shipped a lot of points to SA giving them the perfect start to the tournament with the bonus point. It only seems they react when they come back home, undoubtedly to stinging criticism, that they seem to react. They seem to play their best rugby in wet conditions when they can more easily shut down the opposition and squeeze them into the narrow gameplan that works best for them. In the dry, however, they seem unable to cope with the pace of the game. If I were a NZ administrator, I would schedule the Argentina game in Dunedin where you are guaranteed a dry deck or at least one sheltered from the wintry conditions. They will once again target their home games and the away games in NZ and Australia because that is where they are likely to find conditions best suited to their game.

NZ: England gave them a stern test and that's not a bad thing. Read and Savea are the talisman players of this side and with them we look a lot more threatening. Ben Smith has shown that he can not only score tries from the right wing. He may not kick as much as Dagg but that's not such a bad thing. Folau, Le Roux, Smith and indeed Amorosino have shown their ability to make decisive plays. The question is how the forwards can give them a platform to give them the space they need. Messam may have a great year last year but Kaino has shown these June internationals that 6 is his happy home and he can consistently provide the brute strength that is required to get the upper hand at the breakdown. England showed that a rush defence and closing down NZ's space and getting the upper hand at the breakdown gives you the best chance of beating them. Conversely, they also showed that giving them front foot ball and space for their forwards to link up with their backs is a recipe for disaster. SA are going to come out all guns blazing in the Wellington test (where NZ seems strangely to put in the most consistent attacking performances in recent times) and Australia will give it their all at Sydney. They have yet to see how the NZ team performs under the pressure of needing tournament points and SA in particular will be looking for a bigger advantage going into that Ellis Park test. That said, if Australia can get a victory over NZ, their confidence will skyrocket and anytime an Australian side is full of confidence, that's when your team faces a huge uphill challenge.

So the big 3 all have reasons for optimism based on their June internationals. They have all scored many tries and Australia, in particular, will be heartened by that. However, there is the temptation for false optimism given that France's forwards only fronted in the second test. Of course, that is in part due to Australia and the way they performed but SA, NZ and Argentina will no doubt be poring over the video tapes of that second test to see how they can replicate that performance and look to the first and third tests as a warning of what can happen if they don't get it right. Similarly, NZ, Australia and Argentina will look at that third test and see how Wales got out to that big lead. The SA lineout and rolling maul is a huge weapon and NZ seemed to be able to negate it last year at Ellis Park but you can bet that SA will look to replicate it again and the return of Etzebeth will only reinforce that. And of course teams will look at NZ's first test and see how they can replicate that England performance of shutting down NZ's space with aggressive defence and breakdown work. Different games and different oppositions but the lessons are there to be learned. Argentina, perversely in a way with their three losses, has the advantage of not having any one game to isolate. They were poor in all of their games and the decision to treat games against them lightly is greater for the other 3 teams.

3 teams with high levels of confidence and one team with nothing to lose. Some fascinating tests to come and I for one can't wait for this competition to start. kia kaha

How long till kick off boys. Been out celebrating the Supercopa victory of Atleti. Do I have time for a power nap?

Under 4 hours from your post, kia. 5:30pm local time. Time for a power nap.

Well done Atleti.
Good start to the year for them. Hope they do well for you again this year, mate.

Jeez, Northland leading Wellington 30-0 after 59 mins. Some great tries. Got that pick very wrong!

Rainbow will be creaming himself!

Cheers LD. Time for a couple of hours kip then. Will set my alarm. Looking forward to this one.

The Loaded Dog wrote:Under 4 hours from your post, kia. 5:30pm local time. Time for a power nap.

Well done Atleti.
Good start to the year for them. Hope they do well for you again this year, mate.

Jeez, Northland leading Wellington 30-0 after 59 mins. Some great tries. Got that pick very wrong!

yeah that was weird. no ones going to get near Canterbury (for the 7th straight ITM) ...way too good. That Osbornes all class again. Sharp as it gets.

I'd love an Arge win tonight, they need to get on board asap

They're playing pretty well at present. Though it's high risk and they may well tire into the wind. Been impressed with their continuity and physicality, however you always get a couple of sh!t the bed moments with the Pumas. Boks lucky to get to the break ahead-well taken opportunistic try by Habana though.

34 degrees in Salta too! No wonder they're taking drinks breaks!

25-16 Argentina. This is fantastic!

28-16 to Los Pumas. Really hope they finish this off!! Chances like this don't come everyday.

Ah jeez, Hendricks try... this last quarter is going to be so tense. 28-23.

It's a lesson in ball retention by the Pumas at times. But then they let themselves down with concentration lapses. You always get the feeling SA will come through.

Another scrum penalty get outré of jail card for the Argentineans... jeez this match is tense

Think Argentina are tiring. JuanMa Hernandez is just a Rolls Royce of a player.

Ah FECK

Then he does that.

WHAT A KICK!!

Stink buzz. Bad penalty to give away. All on the restart. If Argentina can get a scrum in the SA half they'll give it everything.

Ooh ooh ooh all on this scrum!!!

What a disappointing end. Feck it.

Gutted. What a poor pass from a great player to end the game!

God, can't believe Argentina didn't pull that off. What a game of rugby.

Yeah, bit of an anti-climax, but great game, and Hernandez is just amazing. What a player.

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Rainbow will be creaming himself!

Cheers LD. Time for a couple of hours kip then. Will set my alarm. Looking forward to this one.

I did I think the entire crowd did. What a magnificent display by the Mighty Taniwha, unbelievable rugby. A farewell present to me, as I am moving to Napier next weekend, Hawkes Bay will be the team but the Taniwha will always be my team. A record victory over Wellington and I could have been a great deal more too

Good on you rainbow. You choose some nice places to live in. They're not in the Mainland but they're the best of a bad lot.   

Argentina should be gutted again not to close that one out. That's twice against SA where they had the lead and didn't protect it. We shouldn't talk down to them and say you pushed SA close. You has them and blew it. Regroup and take it to NZ.

Is that the Puma's near miss for the year, or does anyone who saw the match have them going one better?

Hard to say, since they playing best sides in the world maybe not. However they played some really good rugby, chancing their arm and offloading beautifully at times. Their open field kicking was pretty spot on and their wings and fullback especially looked pretty dangerous. Both scrum were pretty lively but thought the fly halves passing was bit crap. This is not even mentioning the pack play, I've never seen a springbok scrum demolished like that. S.A didn't look great but think much of that was down to pumas hard work. S.A did really well to win the game IMO and really blitzed them with a good try from driving maul at lineout(having turned down 3) and another try with a great finish by Hendricks and lovely pass by jdv I think.
I believe any NH team would have lost to pumas yesterday. I can't see them beating nz but they got a chance against oz through forward domination BUT their more expansive game plan and style will also probably just come unstuck against a team that does it better. I really hope they can pick up a result, still can't get over the scrums.
Was a really enjoyable game well done all 4 teams this wknd.

England and Ireland would not have lost to Argentina. Both sides have steady set pieces (something SA did not yesterday).

Meyer needs to sort his players out, Argentina outplayed them completely at the scrums and breakdown, Sanchez is finding holes in the defence at will.

I wonder what is going on?

Something is completely missing from the team, no intensity, they look tired or unmotivated

Biltong wrote:Meyer needs to sort his players out, Argentina outplayed them completely at the scrums and breakdown, Sanchez is finding holes in the defence at will.

I wonder what is going on?

Something is completely missing from the team, no intensity, they look tired or unmotivated

It's almost as if that yellow card for the Bismarck du Plessis tackle on Dan Carter, and subsequent red card, took the Boks off the rails and they have never completely got back on course. Not that England can beat them so far, mind you.

I have to say I felt so bad for Argentina last night, they were probably just the better team, but this is why theyre in the tournament, they are learning every step of the way.

SA are really truggling a bit, a fair few players looked like theyve been on a plane for 18 hours the day previous, could all the oversea's players be effecting team moral/continuity.

Thats twice in the last few games they have absolutely got out of jail and outplayed by weaker teams, who in reality weren't playing their best either.

They have been outplayed three times n their last four games, and somehow managed to pull the win through.

Biltong wrote:They have been outplayed three times n their last four games, and somehow managed to pull the win through.

If this was football we'd be singing their praises.

I started to see SA as the team going into form come the RWC 2015, with the likes of Le Roux, Hendricks etc all allowing for different aspects to their game, but the last 3/4 games the tight 5 are against the wall.

Who is the baby faced lock? Hes a bit old fashioned from what I've seen of him, Oostheizon (sorry about pelling) is huge but unbeleivably useless, Botha looks a shadow of hi former self. Even the beast doesn't look great, and the more I see Jannie starting the more I think he isn't quite international quality.

The breakdown is an area of worry, they are so good at flooding it, and dominating posession, but recent games they look like they are trying to conserve numbers for attacking purpose.

I think NZ will be a huge challenge up front, but Aus have to be where thay get the boost.

I think SA miss the subilty of Brussow, he adds such a different dimension and slows so many attacks. It's just all limbering power players at the minute, with a few of those well off their game/best (Juan, Etzebeth etc)

Sgt poorly. Sorry mate but that is bullsh!t IMO. A team taking apart SA would have messed up eng or Ireland when at home. For the guys saying SA were poor in the tough stuff, wait till we see them against oz and nz and see how they fair. My view is argues were a Fking handful. Well done springboks for getting win.

kingjohn7 wrote:Sgt poorly. Sorry mate but that is bullsh!t IMO. A team taking apart SA would have messed up eng or Ireland when at home. For the guys saying SA were poor in the tough stuff, wait till we see them against oz and nz and see how they fair. My view is argues were a Fking handful. Well done springboks for getting win.

There is zero context to that argument KJ. It's a complete nothing debate as nobody can back it up.

All I can point to is Ireland and England beating Arg in Argentina I think 4 times in the last year (although a slightly weaker Arg side).

It's seems your basis is SA are better than all NH sides (I'd go with that) so that means no NH side would be have been able to cope with Argentina last night. Sorry to throw a spanner in the works but sport doesn't work like that. I'd have been extremely confident that England at current would turn over that Argentina side home and away. I wouldn't be confident in us turning over SA though.

Kingjohn

Sorry but have to agree with Sgt Pooly, there is no basis to the fact Argentina could compete with Ireland or England. I think Argentian were pretty average, and have the capacity to play far better than they did, similarly with the Wales performance in the summer.

SA were outplayed by both, and looked very poor, but managed to win both too.

Look, if you consider the Springbok backline is quite a new look one, then it is understandable that defensively they have to get to know each other.

On attack the same applies.

But I cannot understand what is happening to our pack, last year we had the best scrum in the tournament, 100% of our scrums won.

We dominated the breakdowns, this year it has disappeared into thin air.

It seems Willem ALberts is more crucial to our cause than I ever thought.

Not sure it's a personell issue, I get the feeling meyer is trying to commit less to the breakdown in attack to allow for more options.

Jane is out so could we see Ben Smith to right wing and Dagg back at fullback?

Nonu and Crotty out so Fekitoa to 12 and does that mean Piutau comes in as the utility back?

I read that Nonu was going to be fit...

I'd probably put Piutau in. He also only started last year so still needs some game time out in the jersey despite an impressive start.

What's going to be interesting is when Carter is fit. What happens to Cruden being a specialist? Barrett I think offers more off the bench.

Reckon Dagg will come back too.

rainbow-warrior wrote:

kiakahaaotearoa wrote:Rainbow will be creaming himself!

Cheers LD. Time for a couple of hours kip then. Will set my alarm. Looking forward to this one.

I did  I think the entire crowd did.  What a magnificent display by the Mighty Taniwha, unbelievable rugby.  A farewell present to me, as I am moving to Napier next weekend, Hawkes Bay will be the team but the Taniwha will always be my team.  A record victory over Wellington and I could have been a great deal more too

I had a choice of Christchurch, Blenheim or Napier. The latter was my choice

Good thing is I now have a Platinum Ticket for the AB vs Argentina game. Do you think the AB's will call in the changes for this game or go with what is their strongest team?

disneychilly wrote:I read that Nonu was going to be fit...

I'd probably put Piutau in. He also only started last year so still needs some game time out in the jersey despite an impressive start.

What's going to be interesting is when Carter is fit. What happens to Cruden being a specialist? Barrett I think offers more off the bench.

Reckon Dagg will come back too.

What about Piatau at 15 and Ben SMith at wing.

It's definitely an option BB but not one I'd like to see. I think against Argentina and SA, we'll need a good kicking game and don't think Piutau has an educated boot.

Rainbow, with a two-week lay-off, I don't think there's any need to make wholesale changes. Kaino's out along with Jane and dc assures me Nonu will be fit

That Pumas pack is a scrumming machine. I'm looking forward to seeing how NZ's scrum lines up against it. But what the last SA test showed, is that you have to wear this Pumas pack down. They fall away after 60 minutes so keep pace with them and then make the changes and look to break them in that final quarter.

A bonus point would be ideal but we'll have to wait and see what the conditions are and how of course Argentina turn up on the night. Then the focus will definitely turn to the Australia vs SA test as at the moment I really don't have a fix on where those two teams are at the moment.

If you can break the line early a couple of times against the Pumas they can get it in their mind that it's going to be helter skelter all day and they can lose their shape. That is where you can give them a hiding if you are accurate. But we need the boots to pin them down if it stays tight. Piutau and Smith could interchange a lot if Hansen were to go down that road.

I think the Pumas have the best scrum in the comp and that NZ will probably come off second best. That's not to say they'll get caned, rather they'll probably give away a couple of scrum penalties and end up having to defend their line from a maul or two.

As Saturday showed, Argentina still have a couple of sh!t the bed moments every test, and NZ are the most accurate at shoving mistakes down your throat. So I'm hoping they get a couple of tries early from structured play as I back them to score from Puma mistakes.

Perth will be real interesting. Another draw would be lovely if you don't mind...

MMaaxx wrote:It is funny how everyone is seriously rating this England side which has achieved little and failed when it matters most.

All the talk of depth etc is over played. All the bigger teams have decent cover. What matters is the amount of truly world class (hate that term but....) players can be put out in the starting side.

Man for man SA still has the edge on England in most positions.

The biggest strength about England is the coaching and that they are playing a certain style that the whole team has bought into.

Onto the RC: I expect SA to win all at home, take NZ close, sneak a win in Aus and I hope beat Arg convincingly away. The table might come down to BP's, points scored etc

Barely won in Argentina and lost in Aus…your posts definitely indicate your level of playing experience! Little league was it? Wonder what your prediction for the Wales game was

Yes, I know losing to Wales is shameful, thankfully as it happens once every fifteen games I can deal with it especially with the 95 and 07 RWC titles to fall back on......makes it easier....do you know that 'on your day' Wales could have been world champions too?

Geez started reading this and thought it was this years prelude. Gwlad you have to dig out posts from 8 months ago to prove a teeny weeny point...?

MMaaxx wrote:Yes, I know losing to Wales is shameful, thankfully as it happens once every fifteen games I can deal with it especially with the 95 and 07 RWC titles to fall back on......makes it easier....do you know that 'on your day' Wales could have been world champions too?

YAWN, the way you post indicates you must have played a really low level of rugby.

Did you play Little league for South Africa, or more likely Portugal?

Ah here we go, yet another non-wales related thread turns into a slag-off Wales thread. Seems to be the theme in all debates these days. People should stop giving monkeys a laptop to play with.

You need to read further up to see who turned this otherwise outstanding article into a slag-fest.

Thought this was a build up to the rugby championship.

Turns out it's just the same Welsh idiots being well, idiots, again.

Shame.

Later in the year yappy. Let's see how the S15 pans out before I pass judgement on the abridged tournament this year.