Rugby Championship Prospects 2014

First topic message reminder :

The June Internationals came to an end this weekend and overall there was a familiar feel to the results, with the possible exception of Australia. Certainly results-wise Australia made a grand improvement on their 2013 Lions results. But the closeness of the first two tests in NZ sent the tongues wagging and it's fair to say both SA and Australia will approach their tests with NZ with a great deal of confidence. That said, the first test saw NZ put in a forgettable performance, Australia the second, SA the third. They all found ways to claw back a victory from a poor performance and the fact that they did so against an opposition that was playing very good rugby says a lot about the character of the teams. All three sides have many positives to take out of their tests though. Argentina once again showed that they simply don't have a big enough base to compete year round. They must target certain games and look to dominate those. It's many a bridge too far to ask them to compete in all of their matches.

Here is the scheduling for the RC tests this year.

Date Home Away Venue
16/08/2014 Australia - - New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney
16/08/2014 TBC South Africa Argentina Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
23/08/2014 TBC New Zealand Australia Eden Park, Auckland
23/08/2014 TBC Argentina - - South Africa TBC
06/09/2014 TBC Australia - - South Africa Patersons Stadium, Perth
06/09/2014 TBC New Zealand Argentina McLean Park, Napier
13/09/2014 TBC Australia - - Argentina Skilled Park, Gold Coast
13/09/2014 TBC New Zealand South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington
27/09/2014 TBC South Africa Australia Newlands, Cape Town
27/09/2014 TBC Argentina - - New Zealand TBC
04/10/2014 TBC South Africa New Zealand Ellis Park, Johannesburg
04/10/2014 TBC Argentina - - Australia TBC

Australia: Sydney is the key test for Australia. In a way it defines their tournament. In the past two years, they have lost this fixture. There is a sense that there is confidence across the Aussie franchises with the possible exception of the Reds. In a way, the pairing of Genia and Cooper are a microcosm of the Australian side. If they are firing on all cylinders, they prove to be an irresistible combination of confidence and guile. If they don't fire, they can be a liability that can be ruthlessly exposed. There is no guarantee that either one will appear for Australia. Yet like England, the 9, 10, 12, 13 axis that played against France would not be my preference if I were McKenzie. The Aussies showed against France in the first and third tests the threat they are when their forwards get a roll on. Players like Folau are a huge threat when they have time and space. The second test showed though what happens when you close that time and space down. The way to break this Aussie side down has been through its forwards. I see the gameplan of SA, NZ and Argentina won't differ in that approach this year. But the question remains to be seen, is Australia ready to combat that physicality up front this year?

South Africa: There is a lot to be excited about this SA side. Much like Folau, they have a playmaker in Le Roux who is both exciting to watch and night and day and a couple of planets beyond what they had in Kirchner. That breakout try from inside the 22 against Wales yesterday was breathtaking to watch and instead of breaking down in the middle of the field, Le Roux expertly linked up with his outside man to finish off the try. It looked easy what he did at pace but in years gone by such consummate ease was lacking from the SA backline with Kirchner putting his head down and burrowing straight into contact a symptom of brawn winning over brain. There is no doubt that Meyer wants to mix things up but there are still a few question marks. He has a few experienced warriors like Matfield back in the side but with another test against NZ at Ellis Park, will these players be up for some lung-sapping rugby? Is Meyer relying too much on overseas players and will that have an attritional effect on their ability to last 80 minutes at Ellis Park against a NZ side who will be intent on running on that amazing ground?

Argentina: The need for a domestic structure and experience at playing in the S15 seems to be pointed out more glaringly each year. There is much to like about this Argentina side with their set piece but the promise they have shown with their backs has yet to come to full fruition. In their first test away in SA they have shipped a lot of points to SA giving them the perfect start to the tournament with the bonus point. It only seems they react when they come back home, undoubtedly to stinging criticism, that they seem to react. They seem to play their best rugby in wet conditions when they can more easily shut down the opposition and squeeze them into the narrow gameplan that works best for them. In the dry, however, they seem unable to cope with the pace of the game. If I were a NZ administrator, I would schedule the Argentina game in Dunedin where you are guaranteed a dry deck or at least one sheltered from the wintry conditions. They will once again target their home games and the away games in NZ and Australia because that is where they are likely to find conditions best suited to their game.

NZ: England gave them a stern test and that's not a bad thing. Read and Savea are the talisman players of this side and with them we look a lot more threatening. Ben Smith has shown that he can not only score tries from the right wing. He may not kick as much as Dagg but that's not such a bad thing. Folau, Le Roux, Smith and indeed Amorosino have shown their ability to make decisive plays. The question is how the forwards can give them a platform to give them the space they need. Messam may have a great year last year but Kaino has shown these June internationals that 6 is his happy home and he can consistently provide the brute strength that is required to get the upper hand at the breakdown. England showed that a rush defence and closing down NZ's space and getting the upper hand at the breakdown gives you the best chance of beating them. Conversely, they also showed that giving them front foot ball and space for their forwards to link up with their backs is a recipe for disaster. SA are going to come out all guns blazing in the Wellington test (where NZ seems strangely to put in the most consistent attacking performances in recent times) and Australia will give it their all at Sydney. They have yet to see how the NZ team performs under the pressure of needing tournament points and SA in particular will be looking for a bigger advantage going into that Ellis Park test. That said, if Australia can get a victory over NZ, their confidence will skyrocket and anytime an Australian side is full of confidence, that's when your team faces a huge uphill challenge.

So the big 3 all have reasons for optimism based on their June internationals. They have all scored many tries and Australia, in particular, will be heartened by that. However, there is the temptation for false optimism given that France's forwards only fronted in the second test. Of course, that is in part due to Australia and the way they performed but SA, NZ and Argentina will no doubt be poring over the video tapes of that second test to see how they can replicate that performance and look to the first and third tests as a warning of what can happen if they don't get it right. Similarly, NZ, Australia and Argentina will look at that third test and see how Wales got out to that big lead. The SA lineout and rolling maul is a huge weapon and NZ seemed to be able to negate it last year at Ellis Park but you can bet that SA will look to replicate it again and the return of Etzebeth will only reinforce that. And of course teams will look at NZ's first test and see how they can replicate that England performance of shutting down NZ's space with aggressive defence and breakdown work. Different games and different oppositions but the lessons are there to be learned. Argentina, perversely in a way with their three losses, has the advantage of not having any one game to isolate. They were poor in all of their games and the decision to treat games against them lightly is greater for the other 3 teams.

3 teams with high levels of confidence and one team with nothing to lose. Some fascinating tests to come and I for one can't wait for this competition to start. kia kaha

yappysnap wrote:Thought this was a build up to the rugby championship.

Turns out it's just the same Welsh idiots being well, idiots, again.

Shame.

Yeah we got bored of discussing England 2nd place finishers, so moved onto here.

Truly that is something to be proud of as well

Give it a rest will you Saint, it's getting really boring

Early days, but NZ super 15 side scrums are getting bullied around by SA scums. I know this sounds like an obvious thing, but I mean, monstered in the scrum. It's a bit variable between weeks but some NZ teams are playing some pretty expansive rugby (all but the blues) with some pretty good skills on show. The ball being moved on, tipped on, behind the back moved on, etc and it's pretty exciting. Nehe Milner-Scudder from the Hurricanes is an exciting running prospect in the Jane/early Dagg twinkle toe style. It's looking ok for NZ apart from some appalling place kicking from some resident ABs, and hopefully the ABs scrum has a bit more oomph, but it's early days.

ebop wrote:Early days, but NZ super 15 side scrums are getting bullied around by SA scums. I know this sounds like an obvious thing, but I mean, monstered in the scrum. It's a bit variable between weeks but some NZ teams are playing some pretty expansive rugby (all but the blues) with some pretty good skills on show. The ball being moved on, tipped on, behind the back moved on, etc and it's pretty exciting. It's looking good for NZ but early days.

Biltong won't be pleased with that reference. You know how he feels about south African players being called scum, cheats, etc.

Chiefs and Canes are looking good. Crusaders got a mega win on the weekend too. How did they manage to keep scoring tries when they were down to 12 men?!

Hehe, good spotting Saint, sorry biltong that should be scrums. Yeah, that was a ridiculous game eh. 3 yellows to the Crusaders and a red to the Sharks within a handful of minutes. The Sharks didn't seem interested, was a strange performance from them I thought. First time the Crusaders have really opened up and without DC and McCaw (for majority of game). The Canes got away with a win but the Stormers dominated the second half, kept ball in hand, and barraged the Canes senseless. They could have won that game but for a couple of dodgy refs calls (ie disallowing the maul try, etc).

[quote="The Saint"]

ebop wrote: Crusaders got a mega win on the weekend too. How did they manage to keep scoring tries when they were down to 12 men?!

Sharks gave them a hand and said 'anything you can, I can do better'...and Deysel got redded off, on attack just after a penalty had been awarded in front of the posts, at 28-3 down.

The cards around the score looked like a poker hand...