Rugby Championship Prospects 2014

First topic message reminder :

The June Internationals came to an end this weekend and overall there was a familiar feel to the results, with the possible exception of Australia. Certainly results-wise Australia made a grand improvement on their 2013 Lions results. But the closeness of the first two tests in NZ sent the tongues wagging and it's fair to say both SA and Australia will approach their tests with NZ with a great deal of confidence. That said, the first test saw NZ put in a forgettable performance, Australia the second, SA the third. They all found ways to claw back a victory from a poor performance and the fact that they did so against an opposition that was playing very good rugby says a lot about the character of the teams. All three sides have many positives to take out of their tests though. Argentina once again showed that they simply don't have a big enough base to compete year round. They must target certain games and look to dominate those. It's many a bridge too far to ask them to compete in all of their matches.

Here is the scheduling for the RC tests this year.

Date Home Away Venue
16/08/2014 Australia - - New Zealand ANZ Stadium, Sydney
16/08/2014 TBC South Africa Argentina Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
23/08/2014 TBC New Zealand Australia Eden Park, Auckland
23/08/2014 TBC Argentina - - South Africa TBC
06/09/2014 TBC Australia - - South Africa Patersons Stadium, Perth
06/09/2014 TBC New Zealand Argentina McLean Park, Napier
13/09/2014 TBC Australia - - Argentina Skilled Park, Gold Coast
13/09/2014 TBC New Zealand South Africa Westpac Stadium, Wellington
27/09/2014 TBC South Africa Australia Newlands, Cape Town
27/09/2014 TBC Argentina - - New Zealand TBC
04/10/2014 TBC South Africa New Zealand Ellis Park, Johannesburg
04/10/2014 TBC Argentina - - Australia TBC

Australia: Sydney is the key test for Australia. In a way it defines their tournament. In the past two years, they have lost this fixture. There is a sense that there is confidence across the Aussie franchises with the possible exception of the Reds. In a way, the pairing of Genia and Cooper are a microcosm of the Australian side. If they are firing on all cylinders, they prove to be an irresistible combination of confidence and guile. If they don't fire, they can be a liability that can be ruthlessly exposed. There is no guarantee that either one will appear for Australia. Yet like England, the 9, 10, 12, 13 axis that played against France would not be my preference if I were McKenzie. The Aussies showed against France in the first and third tests the threat they are when their forwards get a roll on. Players like Folau are a huge threat when they have time and space. The second test showed though what happens when you close that time and space down. The way to break this Aussie side down has been through its forwards. I see the gameplan of SA, NZ and Argentina won't differ in that approach this year. But the question remains to be seen, is Australia ready to combat that physicality up front this year?

South Africa: There is a lot to be excited about this SA side. Much like Folau, they have a playmaker in Le Roux who is both exciting to watch and night and day and a couple of planets beyond what they had in Kirchner. That breakout try from inside the 22 against Wales yesterday was breathtaking to watch and instead of breaking down in the middle of the field, Le Roux expertly linked up with his outside man to finish off the try. It looked easy what he did at pace but in years gone by such consummate ease was lacking from the SA backline with Kirchner putting his head down and burrowing straight into contact a symptom of brawn winning over brain. There is no doubt that Meyer wants to mix things up but there are still a few question marks. He has a few experienced warriors like Matfield back in the side but with another test against NZ at Ellis Park, will these players be up for some lung-sapping rugby? Is Meyer relying too much on overseas players and will that have an attritional effect on their ability to last 80 minutes at Ellis Park against a NZ side who will be intent on running on that amazing ground?

Argentina: The need for a domestic structure and experience at playing in the S15 seems to be pointed out more glaringly each year. There is much to like about this Argentina side with their set piece but the promise they have shown with their backs has yet to come to full fruition. In their first test away in SA they have shipped a lot of points to SA giving them the perfect start to the tournament with the bonus point. It only seems they react when they come back home, undoubtedly to stinging criticism, that they seem to react. They seem to play their best rugby in wet conditions when they can more easily shut down the opposition and squeeze them into the narrow gameplan that works best for them. In the dry, however, they seem unable to cope with the pace of the game. If I were a NZ administrator, I would schedule the Argentina game in Dunedin where you are guaranteed a dry deck or at least one sheltered from the wintry conditions. They will once again target their home games and the away games in NZ and Australia because that is where they are likely to find conditions best suited to their game.

NZ: England gave them a stern test and that's not a bad thing. Read and Savea are the talisman players of this side and with them we look a lot more threatening. Ben Smith has shown that he can not only score tries from the right wing. He may not kick as much as Dagg but that's not such a bad thing. Folau, Le Roux, Smith and indeed Amorosino have shown their ability to make decisive plays. The question is how the forwards can give them a platform to give them the space they need. Messam may have a great year last year but Kaino has shown these June internationals that 6 is his happy home and he can consistently provide the brute strength that is required to get the upper hand at the breakdown. England showed that a rush defence and closing down NZ's space and getting the upper hand at the breakdown gives you the best chance of beating them. Conversely, they also showed that giving them front foot ball and space for their forwards to link up with their backs is a recipe for disaster. SA are going to come out all guns blazing in the Wellington test (where NZ seems strangely to put in the most consistent attacking performances in recent times) and Australia will give it their all at Sydney. They have yet to see how the NZ team performs under the pressure of needing tournament points and SA in particular will be looking for a bigger advantage going into that Ellis Park test. That said, if Australia can get a victory over NZ, their confidence will skyrocket and anytime an Australian side is full of confidence, that's when your team faces a huge uphill challenge.

So the big 3 all have reasons for optimism based on their June internationals. They have all scored many tries and Australia, in particular, will be heartened by that. However, there is the temptation for false optimism given that France's forwards only fronted in the second test. Of course, that is in part due to Australia and the way they performed but SA, NZ and Argentina will no doubt be poring over the video tapes of that second test to see how they can replicate that performance and look to the first and third tests as a warning of what can happen if they don't get it right. Similarly, NZ, Australia and Argentina will look at that third test and see how Wales got out to that big lead. The SA lineout and rolling maul is a huge weapon and NZ seemed to be able to negate it last year at Ellis Park but you can bet that SA will look to replicate it again and the return of Etzebeth will only reinforce that. And of course teams will look at NZ's first test and see how they can replicate that England performance of shutting down NZ's space with aggressive defence and breakdown work. Different games and different oppositions but the lessons are there to be learned. Argentina, perversely in a way with their three losses, has the advantage of not having any one game to isolate. They were poor in all of their games and the decision to treat games against them lightly is greater for the other 3 teams.

3 teams with high levels of confidence and one team with nothing to lose. Some fascinating tests to come and I for one can't wait for this competition to start. kia kaha

For sure. Whanau is everything. Rucking outstanding.

Tim Bateman is returning to Japan because his wife has MS and the treatment there is better than what is available in NZ (not subsidised).
Good luck to both families.

Indeed.

Explains also why there's talk of Nonu returning to Wellington.

Nah that's because Hammett is leaving

Definitely that burnt bridge meant he could never return with Hammett still as coach but Bateman leaving as well strengthens his cause.

Biltong wrote:

Taylorman wrote:

Biltong wrote:

profitius wrote:For all the talk of the Boks, they're still some way off the ABs IMO.

I think we'll have to wait and see, tough to say at this stage whether they are far behind or not.

A lot depends on how the Matfields and co go at the higher pace really, and how Pollard thrives. 10's been a real drawback for SA since 2010 vs the ABs as none have really stepped up to allow the Boks to get their best game going. Theyve got a really good side and Meyer is really getting to know the ABs. Fascinating matches this year and no idea we're theyre both at.

I would disagree with you on none at ten have stepped up, you only had Morne Steyn against the top teams, Lambie and Goosen never got a fair shot

Goosen did, but kept getting injured and Meyer even played him earlier than he should have on one occasion. I dont think Lambie took his chances at 10. In 4-5 years hes not really stamped his mark which is of all positions what a 10 should be doing. I know you're appraisal of Lambie is higher than mine. I lust dont think they get a lot more with Lambie than Steyn in terms of consistency, controlling the match. But regardless of why, the 10 pos is one SA need to sort. Steyn there through to the world cup will seriously hamper their chances vs the top two.

IF there are no more injuries when the first match occurs Nz will have available all there
missing players bar Romano and possibly Sam Cane.
Mckenzie is confident has established a more settled side with great firepower in the backs
BUT on the evidence of the first France test a problem in the tight 5.
Even though they were thrashed France on several occasions were going for pushover try`s
indeed getting at least one.
South Africa has named Bakkies Botha and Juan Smit in there squad the biggest loss is at
scrum half.Morne Steyn will start at 10 that is a certainty.
Sydney is huge an AB win there a new record then a home match v both Aus and Sa then
two versus Argentina.They could be 5-0 going into the last game v SA.
All runs come to an end and NZ are over due BUT if the forwards get on top NZ have the
tools to finish the job.
The 4Ns and AI`s are realistically the only real pointers to pre RWC form.
Next year it will be the usual weakened sides shadow show,.

The RC squad has been announced. Tom Moody comes in to cover Woody who will be out with a shoulder injury for the Australian tests. Luatua gets a reprieve as Vito is injured and the way he was playing at the end of the Super season makes that a good call for me. Sam Cane gets a call up and this is the big call of faith from Hansen. He's been out for half the Super season with a knee injury and though at 22 should recover better than someone like Richie, that's still a lot of rugby missed out on.

I was really impressed with him last year and his Eden Park match saw him step up in maturity at test level. Hansen is not averse to playing players like Dagg, Nonu and Cruden into test form because he knows they can do it. My only concern with Cane is that he seems to be injury prone. I think with his other candidates, he would prefer the speed of Ardie Savea but the bulk and carrying power of Matt Todd but feels Cane is the best blend of that in one player.

Good to see Charlie Piutau back but like Cane he has been out with injury for quite some time. He had a great year in black and I'm sure all NZ fans are hoping both he and Cane are able to recapture their form from last year but it's not going to happen overnight. They'll need to be reintroduced slowly and for not much game time. Carter comes on and offers utility value at 10 and 12 so Crotty comes out with Fekitoa included.

I feel for a player like Todd but Hansen has his test squad in mind and that's the harsh reality. I certainly don't want to quibble with a man over selections when he's taken over a side and lost so few games. On the whole, can't wait for the Sydney match as I think the Wallabies will be champing at the bit. I think the Crusaders can do the ABs a favour to at least denting Aussie confidence by doing over the Tahs on Sydney soil. You can't read test form into Super form but in terms of confidence, it would be foolish to underestimate what a Super title would do to a side packed with Wallabies.

Hansens simply applied his 'you dont lose your place to injury motto'.

You put it much more succinctly than me Tman.   

Australia fans fancy their chances against New Zealand but aren't certain of a win by any means. New Zealand fans seem relaxed but don't want to jinx the record by being too overconfident. I can't get a read on how South African supporters feel. There are a lot, like Biltong, who are concerned about the future direction of the sport in South Africa but I don't get the impression they have written off their chances. Anyone got an idea?

In my view you go by the standard of your performances the last time you played the RC.

In 2013 there was quite a difference between NZ - SA ---- OZ -----ARG

Until we have played the first few games, it is hard to tell.

The Ozzies are always confident, so that tells you nothing, the Saffers are always negative, that doesn't say much either, as for the AB's, well until they actually start losing there isn't anything indicating it will continue.

Thats pretty much it BB.
 
AUS may snatch a home game vs. SA but I would still fancy the boks to turn them over. Until they get Pocock back I think they will struggle but their pack looks much improved from previous years.
 
SA will struggle in NZ and I would back NZ in SA in the final match. SA will chase the match and leave the door open for NZ to bide their time and pick their pocket.
 
It will probably be
 
NZ plays 6 wins 6.
SA plays 6 wins 4, loses 2
AUS plays 6 wins 2, loses 4
ARG plays 6 wins 0, loses 0 and if they get a bonus point against anyone they should see it as an achievement. Even at home.

I feel for Argentina, they really had to force an opening into the comp and since have done so the player quality has dropped off slightly.

There is that kid winger though, anyone know his name?

yeah they are now a poor side but they will be back. They have so much talent that once they get a SR franchise they will really advance... until then they will simply tread water.

fa0019 wrote:yeah they are now a poor side but they will be back. They have so much talent that once they get a SR franchise they will really advance... until then they will simply tread water.

Super franchise aside, whats to suggest they will do anything but remain whipping boys for the big 3?

Don't get me wrong they are well deserving of a place in the tournament, well A tournament, not sure the geography works but this is as good as it gets right now, but they really need to push on, it will just be a matter of time before we're discussing them not being able to compete and rescinding their membership will it not?

If you look at their player pool they have a lot of depth in the lasat 10 years or so alone
 
Think
 
Pichot
Contepomi brothers
Lobbe brothers
 
and then guys who jumped to Italy
 
Dominguez
Parisse
Castrogiovanni
 
When Argentina get a SR franchise these guys will stay together in Argentina and if all those guys are playing together week in week out they will not only become some force but easily be able to transition club to test rugby as all the player relationships are already in place. They will be very strong. Those who jumped to Italy will probably get a SR academy contract at 16 and who would take some Rabo academy contract vs. a SR one even if they are loyal to the old country (assuming Italy and many Argentines ancestral home)?

At the moment Argentina are competitve only for a limited part of the RC. In dry conditions with a hard deck, they are cruelly exposed. They get soundly whipped every time they venture over to SA in the first leg. They tend to do well in the wet conditions of NZ or Australia depending on where the game is played. At home they are more competitive but that is only from a comparative point of view. A draw against SA is all they have to show for that so far.

If SA struggle with their overseas players, then Argentina are shown up in this regard to the fullest extreme with all their top players peaking for different parts of the year. Having players in a SR franchise will help them in that regard but they have also lost or will lose a lot of experienced players and for some teams this is harder to absorb.

Sgt_Pooly wrote:That would be a scary combo Kia. Imagine Fekitoa running off SBW's shoulder!

What's scary is having a fit and firing Aussie backline running at those two. Positional play would be a serious concern with those two together. Though Fekitoa does have a decent awareness of where he should be (not as good as C Smith though).

Mainly because they're an untested combo. Frankly Nonu is a defensive liability anyway but he's held together by Conrad Smith.

The problem for the Wallabies is that Foley, Toomua and Kuridrani are the 10,12,13 axis of a fit and firing Aussie backline. Replace that with Cooper, Beale and AAC and there are still issues. McKenzie doesn't know where to put AAC and he doesn't want to put Toomua in at 10 and I'm not a fan of the proposed backline they intend to play. With JOC out, and problems with injury and form, Australia seem to be a wing short and like England they do not know their preferred centre pairing (and even half pairing) and without that level of experience I don't seem them firing anytime soon.

A predictable squad but one it saddens me to see no Crotty,No Todd,and most significantly
NO Ellis.On Saturday he gave the most complete performance you could hope to see on form
an automatic RWC back up for Smith.
Cane never really rated him and just back from injury?does`nt even start regularly for the
Chiefs,Todds on fire rather him than Messam too.
Could do worse than start DC at 12 with Cruden/Barrett at 10.

Agree with you partially Emack.  I’d like to see Todd get a run out as he deserves it and has been the best NZ-qualified 7 in this year’s SXV – not as good as Jack Lam but that’s a different kettle of fish.  Re Ellis – bit harsh but we’ve got to build for the future.  I’m completely at ease with Aaron Smith and he is by far the best HB of the 4 countries and probably top 3 in the world.  So, below him, we’ve got to build.  Perenara has the capacity to be the best of the lot so I’m all for keeping him in the squad to develop at the expense of Ellis.

Crotty – handy back up and nothing more I’m afraid.  I don’t expect him to win us a game (though he was on the end of that fabulous try in Dublin) but if Nonu gets injured then he's a comfortable player to put in.  But I’m happier placing my stock in Nonu/Smith/Fekitoa/SBW and a possible return of Kahui  (anyone with any knowledge of this development?)

I think if we play DC at 12, it leaves us quite light in the middle.  Good as backup, don’t get me wrong.  But we’ve been in a similar situation trying to shoe-horn in our best players so they all play (Wilson-Lomu-Umaga-Cullen 1999) so I’d rather go with the best combinations and in that particular combo of Nonu/Smith, we’ve got the best in the world.  No need to tinker.

Building for the future is great BUT at RWC`s you need experience too especially at 9 and
Ellis is after Smith currently THE best.
Woodcock out for first 2 tests could do worse than go with the brothers Grimm starting
the elder Franks has been the standout NZ prop this year.
Now a specialist blindside and more than competent openside the backs barring injuries
on Saturday.
DC will start at 10,Ben Smith on the wing with Dagg back at 15 I`ll put money on it.

We've got a lot of test rugby between now and next year. This will allow TP and TKB to build up experience under Aaron Smith heading into the WC. If we don’t build experience now, when should we? I’m more than happy with the direction we are taking with our halfbacks. Ellis is hanging around, if we suffer an injury next year he’ll be called up ala Stephen Donald.

Crockett seems to be preferred at the moment over Ben Franks. He seemed to do ok against England and I suspect the selectors will persevere with him though I still have my doubts.

I think the problem with Ellis, Alan, is his service is too slow. Heinz comes on and you can see the difference. I think there's a big drop off after Smith whoever you pick so to call Ellis the best after Smith is all very well but ultimately you have to ask what is it you want in your reserve halfback? Defence: TKB. Experience: Ellis. Closest likeness to Smith in case of injury: Perenara? Like the options behind Savea, none filled me with a sense of confidence (Piutau yes now that he's fit).

I know you're a fan of the Crusaders like me, but Crotty is a stop gap. Filler. Insurance. He's not an impact player. Make a bold bid for the future with Fekitoa and you have to give up someone now. Carter is merely injury cover at 12. I wouldn't want him to be picked there just as much as I'd like to see Beauden Barrett start at 15. He can play there.

As for your last claim, I think you could well be right. What happens to Barrett or Cruden in that scenario? Who is the ten cover and who is the utility back cover? Barrett or Fekitoa? I don't see Hansen breaking up the Cruden / Barrett on bench combination easily. So how would Carter be accommodated?

Biggest selection conundrums: where to put Ben Smith and who starts at LH and who sits on the bench?

Julian Savea is a must on the left wing. Ben Smith is a must. But do you put him on the right wing or at fullback? If the latter then Dagg is dropped from the squad and either Jane or Piutau make the right wing spot Who do you go for utility cover: Barrett can cover 10 and 15 so Fekitoa covers the centres or Piutau covers wing, fullback and centre. If the former then Dagg comes in at fullback and you bring on Piutau or Fekitoa as utility cover.

Woody's out and Crockett could be doubtful. So Moody might get a shout but is he on the bench and who starts if Crockett is out?

Lock, back row and halfback cover will also be the selection headaches. Hansen will try to replicate the side for the 3rd England test as much as possible but both injuries and players returning from injury make that more difficult.

It would be crazy to leave Dagg out of any squad in the world, but smiths form tho...

Can and has Dagg played right wing before, he's so electric and defencively sound (don't tell Savea) that you'd think he'd slot in pretty well, however Foden, and Brown proved it's harder than it looks!

Back row could be the first contentious selection for a long long time, how long has it been since mccaw was just a twinkle in his dads eye and didn't have total control over the 7 jersey?

If Cane's been picked then he has to be brought up to match fitness. He's been out of rugby for quite some time. The question though is when to do it? Luatua proved very useful against Australia last year as he was given more of a license to roam wide. Against SA or Argentina that's not an option. I'd like to see Cane getting time against Argentina at home to see where he's at for the SA game.

Dagg has played on the wing before but I don't see him kicking out a resurgent Jane there in his specialist position. Piutau offers utility cover and impact in the last quarter.

Since Carter is out then its clear that Barrett will be the back up for Cruden he will also cover 15. That to me that means with Dagg and Savea and Smith starting and Fekitau, Jane and Piutau having turns being on the bench or rotating off with Dagg and Smith. Savea the only one starting every game.

This year for the fist time since 2008 I think will pan out using the old 3Ns formula.
Win your home games pick up as many points as possible on the road target the
perceived weakest side.
On results and Super form to date barring injuries the gap between the teams has
closed perceptibly.

I'm a little worried for SA, I have seem to have gone a little in reverse gear of late, they were starting to look the real deal, but this seasons Super form has been poor, and the summer tests with Wales were lacklustre.

I actually have my money on SA to nick the title, after a NZ slip first up, but I am starting to regret that bet a little. The team looks as strong as SA have had for a while, but is that 9-10 combo going to stifle a truly exciting backline?

NZ never quite look the same when missing players like mccaw, and Carter, but the conveyor belt is still purring along, and it won't be long before the next superstars are unveiled, this could be a bit of a transition tournament though, with there being either huge experience, or huge talent, and not too much of both together, thats why my money went on SA, not so sure.

Aus are a bit of a mystery, they looked pretty average against a poor French team in the summer, but have developed some stars in Folau and co, and their pack is playing pretty well at Super level, not sure they have enough to worry the top 2 but we will see the odd result at home I think.

Argentina seem to have slipped, losing quality and consistency these days, looking forward to seeing this winger though.

Aussies have a couple more injuries with Tomane out and another prop. Their S15 packs have played better but it remains to be seen whether they've made enough improvements in this area. Can't wait for next Saturday.

Who is the Argentina winger being talked about? Is it Cordero?

SOme interesting stats from last year's RC.

Most tries.
NZ 24
SA 23
OZ 12
ARG 7

CLean Breaks.
SA 47
NZ 37
OZ 36
ARG 34

Most carries
OZ 609
SA 603
NZ 589
ARG 494

MOst meters ran
SA 2684
OZ 2531
NZ 2527
ARG 1722

MOst defenders beaten
NZ 131
SA 107
OZ 94
ARG 78

Tackle success
NZ 88.0
OZ 85.6
SA 85.0
ARG 81.3

Lineout success
SA 89.8
OZ 86.4
NZ 82.1
ARG 75.9

Offloads
OZ 67
ARG 56
NZ 55
SA 39

Scrum success
SA 100.0
ARG 76.0
NZ 74.0
OZ 62.0

Ruck success
NZ 96.0
SA 95.0
OZ 94.0
ARG 92.0

Links picked his side...can't agree with Beale at 10. Weak pack plus a 10 who's hardly playing there... pressure and confidence will be the Beale factor this weekend.

Yes, I was very surprised to see Beale at 10, it tells me Link is going all out on attack, so expect an open game, plenty of tries and plenty of open spaces to exploit.

Pretty excited by the prospect of that first game now! Hope Aus can put up a fight, not sure where it'll come from though!

Here's the team for those wanting to know:

The Qantas Wallabies side to play New Zealand in the opening 2014 Castrol EDGE Rugby Championship clash at ANZ Stadium on Saturday 16 August is:



1. James Slipper (vc – Queensland Reds)
2. Nathan Charles (Western Force)
3. Sekope Kepu (NSW Waratahs)
4. Sam Carter (ACT Brumbies)
5. Rob Simmons (Queensland Reds)
6. Scott Fardy (ACT Brumbies)
7. Michael Hooper (c – NSW Waratahs)
8. Wycliff Palu (NSW Waratahs)
9. Nic White (ACT Brumbies)
10. Kurtley Beale (NSW Waratahs)
11. Rob Horne (NSW Waratahs)
12. Matt Toomua (ACT Brumbies)
13. Adam Ashley-Cooper (vc – NSW Waratahs)
14. Pat McCabe (ACT Brumbies)
15. Israel Folau (NSW Waratahs)

Reserves*
James Hanson (Queensland Reds)
Pek Cowan (Western Force)
Ben Alexander (ACT Brumbies)
Will Skelton (NSW Waratahs)
Ben McCalman (Western Force)
Scott Higginbotham (Melbourne Rebels)
Nick Phipps (NSW Waratahs)
Bernard Foley (NSW Waratahs)
Tevita Kuridrani (ACT Brumbies)
*one player to be omitted

Horne and McCabe on the wings? Not much to get excited about in that selection.

So a centre at 10, a centre at 11 and a centre at 14? Interesting selections there... Oh and a fly half at 12.

Biltong wrote:Yes, I was very surprised to see Beale at 10, it tells me Link is going all out on attack, so expect an open game, plenty of tries and plenty of open spaces to exploit.

I think they'll do the swapsey thing with Beale at 10 on defence (so he isnt facing nonu) and 12 on attack to get the Folau machine going, using Toomua to steady the ship with the boot when needed.

The packs got some newbies so I think the ABs are going to try to do the 3rd test England thing. Use Aaron Smith to ship it wide quickly with Cruden doubling round to look for the gaps out wide. Savea's an obvious target to get the ball to quickly, especially at set piece time.

Aussies marching to their own beat. Not a bad idea.

"People power has prompted the ARU to reduce points for penalty and drop goals for the National Rugby Championship in a major result for fans of running rugby.

Penalty and drop goals will only be worth two points, while conversions will be increased to three in one of several exciting new law variations which ARU chief Bill Pulver hopes will one day be adopted internationally".

http://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/international/10379632/New-Australian-competition-to-trial-experimental-rules

I'm still not convinced that reducing the value of penalties actually encourages running rugby. It just means sides are more likely to give away penalties more often as the impact is less. Unless it's properly followed up with warnings and yellow cards (currently very arbitrary) there are more stoppages. Increasing the value of a conversion is an interesting one.

As for the RC I can't see beyond NZ. Aus may well overtake SA as I think they're improving and SA possibly on the slide. They'll both be a way behind NZ who will probably win all games.

Argentina are woefully out of their depth at this level. There will be some severe humilations for them once again and I doubt they'll get a single win. I don't think 50/60 point thrashings are out of the question. They really should have joined the tournament when they were on the up.

Based on what do you think SA is on the slide?

We haven't lost a test to the NH since 2010, we are scoring double the tries we used to, we have won 16/18 and only lost to New Zealand.

Are you taking the poor performance against Wales as a sign?

At this very moment, it could be anyone's, I'm not gonna pick a winner until we see a few rounds. SA and Oz are strong and if anything the ABs may be on the slide. Pains me to say it, it's just an irrational vibe. Just hope they prove me wrong.

Biltong wrote:Based on what do you think SA is on the slide?

We haven't lost a test to the NH since 2010, we are scoring double the tries we used to, we have won 16/18 and only lost to New Zealand.

Are you taking the poor performance against Wales as a sign?

Sorry, I guess 'on the slide' is probably not the right term. I just think the Aussies are improving at a higher rate.

Maybe I'm basing too much on Super Rugby form?

SA haven't made the great strides we thought they would and this season looks more difficult then the last. They have stopped short of blooding youngsters and now these guys are still sitting on 0-5 caps and are still not test class. Can't rely on pensioners for too long.
 
They have a few key injuries and the schedule will not help their cause.
 
At beginning of season I thought they would easily beat AUS but now not sure. I think AUS are developing a nice blend up front allowing their attacking platform to improve. AUS will target SA at home especially and will look to get the win for sure.
 
Just bought tickets for the Newlands leg. Its going to be a massive test match.

Guess the good thing about the 'resurgence' of Oz and SA is that the ABs will fly under the radar and are probably even the underdogs

The thing is Meyer is not bold enough.

He had June last year and June this year to blood players.

His biggest failure was at scrum half, not giving youngsters the opportunity to gain experience.

Other than that we have enough youngsters and a few that should get a chance.

I understand everyone believes experience is everything, but consider the Bok team that won the World CUp in 1995, not a vastly experienced team at all.

Case in point, the run on Springbok team for that final had a collective 178 caps between them.

André Joubert 14
James Small 22
Japie Mulder 8
Hennie le Roux 16
Chester Williams 13
Joel Stransky 11
Joost van der Westhuizen 12
Mark Andrews 12
Ruben Kruger 9
François Pienaar (c) 20
Hannes Strydom 10
Kobus Wiese 6
Balie Swart 13
Chris Rossouw 4
Os du Randt 8

To be honest though BB those were different days altogether. SA had only toured from 1992 (although I think Andre Joubert had "caps" for SA vs. the rest of the world in 1989).

The Currie Cup was probably the most competitive competition in the world anyhow so it was decent training for test rugby. Now the gulf is far far greater.

But on the current batch I'm in full agreement with you.