Scarlets vs Ulster

Tough opening fixture at a venue Ulster lost at last year. That was one of our worst performances of the season and I'd be extremely keen for Ulster to bury that and get a win. Scarlets fielded a pretty hardened looking line-up against Gloucester in their final pre-season friendly, so it will not be easy. Any kind of win will do.

Scarlets

15) Liam Williams
14) Harry Robinson
13) Regan King
12 Scott Williams
11) Michael Tagicakibau
10) Rhys Priestland
9) Gareth Davies

1) Phil John
2) Ken Owens (c)
3) Rhodri Jones
4) Jake Ball
5) Johan Snyman
6) Rob McCusker
7) John Barclay
8) Rory Pitman

Replacements: Emyr Phillips, Rob Evans, Peter Edwards, Richard Kelly, Aaron Shingler, Rhodri Williams, Steven Shingler, Gareth Owen

Ulster

15) Louis Ludik
14) Michael Allen
13) Jared Payne
12) Stuart Olding
11) Craig Gilroy
10) Ian Humphreys
9) Paul Marshall

1) Callum Black
2) Rob Herring
3) Wiehahn Herbst
4) Dan Tuohy
5) Franco van der Merwe
6) Robbie Diack
7) Chris Henry
8) Roger Wilson (c)

Replacements: John Andrew, Andrew Warwick, Declan Fitzpatrick, Lewis Stevenson, Nick Williams, Michael Heaney, Luke Marshall, Andrew Trimble.

Really looking forward to this game. We've had a good pre season and we NEED this home win if we are going to compete for the top four. I'm quietly confident we can do it but Ulster have had a good pre season as well.
We will miss Samson Lee, thank god his ban runs out the week after. I hope to see us use our backs. I would rather see Gareth Davies and Jordan Williams start in place of Phillips and Davies. Im pretty sure that's the pack were going to put out. Looking forward to seing Pitman for the first time; put in a good shift against bath and MOM vs Gloucester, have we found the we have so desperately been looking for.

The likely Scarlets have a far more settled look about them than Ulster who will only have a handful of first teamers available. A real possibility of Scarlets getting 5 league points to nil here. The great unknown is Rhys Priestland's confidence - if it's up then a home win is assured, if not then Ulster might have a sniff of an upset.

Nonsense Aukster. 5 to nil? No chance. It'll be very close.

After watching him play for some time, I don't see what Aled Davies brings to the table. Gareth Davies must have slept with Easterby's wife to be considered inferior to him for so long...when it was obvious to me that Gareth was the best 9 in Wales. The boy can absolutely turn a game on it's head in an instant. Jhamer is right there, though I think the weakness in the Scarlets squad is 10 and 13. King was past it before he left for Clermont so it would be a step backwards to rely on him so much this season. When said players come back, Scarlets first XV looks quite handy, so they may do a lot better than I predicted. I'm interested to see how this Pitman goes as well, he's a big lad and seems to have come from nowhere.

Scarlets best players this season, I have a feeling will be; Samson Lee, Ken Owens, Gareth Davies, Scott Williams.

The opening games of the season can be a nit of a lottery as to the result. Teams coming in undercooked etc means the smart gambler waits for a few rounds before betting a penny on a match. This game is no different and I hope it's a hard fought, tight contest. Scarlets are looking healthier this season and can beat anyone in the league so I cannot call this one at all. I hope for an strong Ulster win of course, a good building of momentum is hard to stop but getting momentum after faltering is a bigger task.
SUFTUM!!!

If the Cherries/Scarlets match reports that I read are to be taken at face value, Scarlets should be going in here expecting a win.

I don't recall ever looking out for them specifically, but both Rob Evans and Pitman got a lot of praise and if you need something in this league, it's a massive ball carrying 8. McCusker, Barclay and Pitman looks a well balanced back row. The key for me is whether the Scarlets boiler house can step up and give their backs the ball.

Similarly, Priestland (who apparently played well), King and Williams is a quality midfield - I don't agree that King is past it at all. The guy has got a lot to offer.

The real query is whether we will see Ulster continue the form that they showed to take down Leinster. If they do, then I think that they'll have too much for the Scarlets, but surely nobody can deny that this will be a very, very competitive game.

I wouldn't worry about the Scarlets front 5 George, i would argue that with Samson Lee, Rhodri Jones, Adriaanse and Pete "the meat" Edwards they have the best set of tightheads in the league, possibly with Glasgow.
Also Jake Ball their 2nd row is a beast of a man and was a gem of a signing.

As for Ulster, Herbst is looking like a shrewd signing but jury still out on van der Merwe as far as i'm concerned.

Anyway should be a great battle and Priestland's performance could well decide the outcome of this one.

VinceWLB wrote:As for Ulster, Herbst is looking like a shrewd signing but jury still out on van der Merwe as far as i'm concerned.

If anything its the other way around. Whilst Herbst played little Super Rugby and was never on the Springboks radar, Franco van der Merwe is an established international lock and was an automatic first choice pick at Super Rugby level. He'll be one of the top locks in the league, no problem.

I have never seen Franco van der Merwe play personally, but i have yet to see a Saffa 2nd row import being anything less than good If he finish top 5 lock in the league it will be a great achievement, there are some cracking 2nd row in the league.

Notch wrote:Nonsense Aukster. 5 to nil? No chance. It'll be very close.

Hmmm... five - nil could be a score of 28 - 27 with an injury time breakaway try?

For the record my nonsensical reasoning goes as follows (based on the above teams):
Ludik is new so hasn't had much time with the team to learn the defensive plays
Payne is new to the 13 position and missed a tackle that led to the Leinster try last week
Olding has had next to no time with this team
Neither Allen nor Gilroy are known for their rock solid defence
Humphreys is a turnstile
Marshall has a big heart but a small frame
Reidy hasn't proved anything yet
Warwick, VdM and Herbst are also new to the team
I'm not convinced that Ulster have enough leadership on the pitch to play smart
Ulster have a new coaching set-up that will inevitably impact the tactics.

All in all, a lot of change and more change than the Scarlets, plus Ulster are away and are likely to have a weaker bench. There will be mistakes by both sides but especially from the guys trying to grab their opportunity to impress the new coach. Scarlets have the backline to score tries if flakey play presents them the opportunities. I expect the number of tries in the game to be proportional to the number of mistakes, and I expect plenty of those.

Aukster your pessimism has grown even more than mine.

I'm trying to think of it more along the lines of a shot not having been fired in anger yet. The preseason games don't really indicate too much but it looks like Ludik, Herbst and VdM are more than able replacements and in terms of what's offered on the pitch may well be a step up (fingers firmly crossed).

Ludik looks like the best back line defender we have had in a long time. He's immaculate. We should have the edge in both set pieces, we have a reliable goal kicker and kicker from hand to reap the benefits of that and most importantly the documented galvanising effect that a new coach has on a team.

Looking at our defence in these past two games we won't be leaking four tries. It's been extremely physical, organised and effective. Maybe if we had the team that finished against Exeter we would be leaking tries but this will not be a game in which the try bonus point is scored.

Pete330v2 wrote:Aukster your pessimism has grown even more than mine.

I'm trying to think of it more along the lines of a shot not having been fired in anger yet. The preseason games don't really indicate too much but it looks like Ludik, Herbst and VdM are more than able replacements and in terms of what's offered on the pitch may well be a step up (fingers firmly crossed).

Pessimism or realism?

I agree they are all able replacements, but match experience builds a team. Toulon had hoards of "able replacements" but it was only when they started to play for each other after a couple of seasons they reached their potential as a team. I'm sure VdM, Herbst and Ludik are high quality signings, but they don't yet have the gravitas of Muller, Afoa, Court, Ferris and Wallace - when these guys spoke others (knew who they were and) listened. The rest of the experienced leaders like Best, Henry, Pienaar, Jackson, Bowe and Trimble won't be involved so I'm struggling to see where the experience under pressure will come from.

Much as I reckon Priestland will determine Scarlets' fortunes, I also think Humphreys could determine Ulster's. Can Ian rein in his natural game to take advantage of a potential advantage in the set piece? Early season last year Paddy Jackson kicked 6/6 to beat the Ospreys after a controlled display of grunt up front. It was a consumate display of winning low risk rugby, tactics that Humphreys often forgets five minutes after kick off.

I'd optimistically take a 12-18 scoreline again (along the lines favoured by Notch), but the reality is there are too many new faces to expect that level of control. The bullocks are being turned out into the sun and both sides have new stockmen - I expect a load of over exuberant mistakes. Still in the shape of Olding and Payne Ulster have two heads-up players who can spot a gap as much as the next man...

We don't want to go over there and play too conservatively. They love a counter-attack and getting their hands on the ball from deep. It's keeping possession and taking them through the phases that will break them.

We should be quite attacking, balanced obviously when we are in their 22 but we shouldn't be kicking the ball away or looking to play percentages too soon. You don't play that game plan with those halfbacks and centres. Attack.

Going to get some tickets for this match.
Any idea which stand / location is best (never been to the Parc)

Keesie_kee wrote:Going to get some tickets for this match.
Any idea which stand / location is best (never been to the Parc)

The North Stand is supposedly the only stand with atmosphere, and singing/chanting etc. However the big screen is far easier to see from the South Stand. Also the tunnel is in the South Stand, and the lass that does the pre-match and half time entertainment, is generally in the South Stand too.

The most important thing to ensure you do, which ever stand you go for, is to visit the supporters village before kickoff or after full time.

Get over to the north stand, more atmosphere and closer to the supporters village . Easier to exit after the game as well.

Pete330v2 wrote:The opening games of the season can be a nit of a lottery as to the result. Teams coming in undercooked etc means the smart gambler waits for a few rounds before betting a penny on a match. This game is no different and I hope it's a hard fought, tight contest. Scarlets are looking healthier this season and can beat anyone in the league so I cannot call this one at all. I hope for an strong Ulster win of course, a good building of momentum is hard to stop but getting momentum after faltering is a bigger task.
SUFTUM!!!

Yeah but what about the other 99.9% of us?

This one’ll be a tough ask.

Mutterings on The Other Forum that Henry might tog out. Very welcome if true. If we could have Henry/Diack/Wilson, that’s a very healthy back-row. It’s arguably our best, which is a tiny bit dispiriting, but there you go.

We seem to be missing Marshall, Olding and McCloskey now. If so, who lines out at 12? Allen? That might be a real factor. I like Allen, but he can’t distribute like Olding or Marshall, or crash ball like Marshall or McCloskey. It would be frustrating not to get Scholes, Gilroy, Payne and Ludik on the ball.

The halfbacks – who knows. The Scarlets are traditionally very good on the counter-attack, so a risky, bewildering brainfart from Marshall P. or iHumph, and we could very quickly be behind our line, awaiting a kick.

I’m expecting an LBP, to be honest. I have no idea how Kiss is shaping this team, but we’re good enough generally for that.

Any Scarlets worried about Byron Hayward as their defence coach? I'm not sold on him.

The Saint wrote:Any Scarlets worried about Byron Hayward as their defence coach? I'm not sold on him.

I am not overly concerned with him as a defence coach, after all Muggleton and Easterby didn't do too good a job either. However, I am a bit concerned he may become Sanjay's boxing coach!!!!!

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

The Saint wrote:Any Scarlets worried about Byron Hayward as their defence coach? I'm not sold on him.

I am not overly concerned with him as a defence coach, after all Muggleton and Easterby didn't do too good a job either.  However, I am a bit concerned he may become Sanjay's boxing coach!!!!!

Am I missing something? BTW, is this game televised, BBC Wales, BBC NI?

It's a Sky Sports double header with this game at 14.40 and Glasgow vs Leinster at 17.15

Thank heavens for t'internet streaming

The Saint wrote:

ScarletSpiderman wrote:

The Saint wrote:Any Scarlets worried about Byron Hayward as their defence coach? I'm not sold on him.

I am not overly concerned with him as a defence coach, after all Muggleton and Easterby didn't do too good a job either.  However, I am a bit concerned he may become Sanjay's boxing coach!!!!!

Am I missing something? BTW, is this game televised, BBC Wales, BBC NI?

Highlights will be on Scrum V as normal, and apparently Sky will have highlights on their digital platforms too.

Thanks guys. Quite looking forward to Sky's coverage, it's a heck of step-up from the BBC. Gonna miss Jiffy though!

Oh just re-read your last post, Haywood was a boxer and I am a bit concerned that he may pass on some of his tricks to an already firey Sanjay. Also no worries about missing Jiffy, he will still be on Scrum V Live on Friday night, and most likely on the highlights show too. Sky seem to like the Scarlets though, as our first two games are Sky matches (Ulster home, Leinster away) and they also have both of our Xmas/New Year games against the Ospreys too.

I'm starting to get a little excited/nervous about this game now. I know that the Scarlets theoretically should win the game, but am not keen on going into a game against Ulster with people thinking we should win.

Well if it makes you feel better, I don't think you should win

Notch wrote:Well if it makes you feel better, I don't think you should win

Yeah I feel better already.

I think you COULD win

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Oh just re-read your last post, Haywood was a boxer and I am a bit concerned that he may pass on some of his tricks to an already firey Sanjay.  Also no worries about missing Jiffy, he will still be on Scrum V Live on Friday night, and most likely on the highlights show too.  Sky seem to like the Scarlets though, as our first two games are Sky matches (Ulster home, Leinster away) and they also have both of our Xmas/New Year games against the Ospreys too.

I'm starting to get a little excited/nervous about this game now.  I know that the Scarlets theoretically should win the game, but am not keen on going into a game against Ulster with people thinking we should win.

Ah. Under him though, Wales U20s defence went from one of the best in the world to one of the worst. The team he guided wasn't very good despite having a few players that had played regional rugby...not to mention one of the best front rows we'd had.

15 Liam Williams, 14 Harry Robinson, 13 Regan King, 12 Scott Williams, 11 Michael Tagicakibau, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Gareth Davies, 1 Phil John, 2 Ken Owens (c), 3 Rhodri Jones, 4 Jake Ball, 5 Johan Snyman, 6 Rob McCusker, 7 John Barclay, 8 Rory Pitman

Replacement: Emyr Phillips, Rob Evans, Peter Edwards, Richard Kelly, Aaron Shingler, Rhodri Williams, Steven Shingler, Gareth Owen

It's going to be tough for us to get a win here as thats nearly full strength Scarlets side. We'll hopefully get a few surprises with big name players coming back but we'll inevitably be missing the likes of Best, Trimble and of course Pienaar. A lot depends on Chris Henry being back and maybe the likes of Tommy Bowe too... but those guys will take a few games to get up to full speed.

Still believe we can do it. Waiting on the Ulster side now. Whoever we pick at loose head I feel very good about our tight five though.

Ulster XV and replacements to face Scarlets, Guinness PRO12, Parc Y Scarlets, Saturday 6th September (kick off 14:40):

(15-9) L Ludik, M Allen, J Payne, S Olding, C Gilroy, I Humphreys, P Marshall; (1-9); C Black, R Herring, W Herbst, D Tuohy, F van der Merwe, R Diack, C Henry, R Wilson (C);

Replacements: J Andrew, A Warwick, D Fitzpatrick, L Stevenson, N Williams, M Heaney, L Marshall, A Trimble.

Looks strong from Ulster, loads of impact players on the bench too. Great to see Henry available.

I was expecting a couple of surprises on the bench (from t'other forum) and it's a great boost to see Lukey Marshall and Trimble on there not to mention Henry starting. That's a strong Ulster side which has fertilised my optimism no end.

Notch, to be honest I expect your wings to be absolutely wetting themselves laughing at our wings. From what I have seen neither Harry Robinson or Taicakibau know how to tackle. And worse is we have a human turnstyle in the form of Gareth Owen on the bench.

That said we are not missing nearly as many as you are (Samson Lee and George Earle as only dead cert first choice starters missing) but I do believe that the backline, potent as it can be in attack, only really has two players with any real defensive skills (Scott and Sanjay). So IMO if the Scarlets don't man up and keep the ball it will be a very long fday at the office.

It's OK, we have our very own turnstyle in Ian Humphreys. Unless of course he did some tackling lessons while on holiday at London Irish

Aye I remember Harry Robinson having some comical moments at Ulster in the past.

Gilroy maybe, but Allen is no winger. He blew another try against Leinster which apparently was brilliant rugby from our own 22, offloading, keeping the ball alive and then an inch-perfect cross field kick...

...which Michael Allen fumbles over the line.

I hope that Angry Andy Trimble takes over at half time. Now there's a winger who will test your defence. We have our own turnstile in the shape of Ian Humphreys but the defence of everyone else seems to be really solid in pre-season.

This game will be great - more teams basically at full strengh.

There are great match ups everywhere - those two massive front rows in particular are going to go at it. Quality throughout that Ulster backline and they should be the difference between the two sides. I can see Ludik 15 and Payne 13 being the way ahead for them.

Flakey halfbacks is where Ulster will lose this if they do lose. They are v strong in the pack and in the three quarters. (Thought Olding broke a finger v Leinster?)

Possible exception of Allen, but Trimble will surely come on for him ASAP. Gilroy played 80 mins last week. One of about 4 players on either side to do so.

This will be the first Pro 12 game on Sky. Looking forward to seeing how it goes. Ulster looked very well drilled in defence last week (Lester Kissinger take a bow) and pretty sharp.

Scarlets I haven't seen or heard much about in pre season

Broke a fingernail, maybe! Nah it seems it wasn't as bad as all that. They would have been hyper-careful with him.

Jen I'd day our halfbacks will always, definitely create chances, the key to winning is making sure they create chances for us and not the opposition!

If we get on the front foot Marshall and Humphreys can be outstanding. It's if we start going backwards we'll have problems.

See also; Rhys Priestland.

That's fair enough. Just a different way of saying flakey. Between Marshall's brainfarts and iHumps defence it could go badly. On a good day they can rip open defences though.

The replacement 10 didn't look good last week O'Hagan I think? I see Olding will be expected to cover this week. Slight risk there.

No, I don't think so. That boy Olding is going to be a star. 10 is very much within his wheelhouse. I expect him to be our second choice 10 not just now but when the big games roll around and Humphreys isn't involved in the 23. Most teams would be developing Olding as a 10 but we already have one outstanding young 10 so his talent is being channelled in another direction.

As for O'Hagan, he's young. I hope he does well- he's not a freakishly fully formed player like O'Gara or Jackson was at his age though. He's got a lot to learn.

You don't think so what?

I meant slight risk having your backup 10 starting at 12 rather than coming off the bench. I suppose we will see Marshall come on at some stage and Olding move in. Or are they expecting 80 out of him?

They will have to get 80 out of iHump or Olding is my point.

Jen, we drew with Bath at the Rec. and beat Glaws at PYS. So for us it was a good pre-season. Our pack seems pretty solid and stable, but our backs are looking a bit iffy still.

I will always remember Harry Robinson having the ball, unopposed down the wing against the Scarlets, a simple sprint in for a try, and Dom Day (a lock) ran him down on an angel and from futher behind and smashed him into touch! Really really really really.......really unhappy he is in the match day 23, let alone starting, especially when he have the skills of Jordan Williams and Kris Phillips left sitting in the stands unable to get into the match day squad.

I do agree with you all that, looking at the teams, the weakness is going to be the half backs for both sides. Priestland and Humphreys are prone to getting to much into their own heads. I would expect Gog, Barclay and Pitman to be looking to smash Humph as soon as possible just to shake him up a bit (and likewise with your lads gunning for Priest).

Getting the excuses in early, its Fitzgibbon as ref.........

I was laughed at on a podcast the other day for suggesting that the Scarlets had a decent pack these days.

Jenifer McLadyboy wrote:You don't think so what?

I meant slight risk having your backup 10 starting at 12 rather than coming off the bench. I suppose we will see Marshall come on at some stage and Olding move in. Or are they expecting 80 out of him?

They will have to get 80 out of iHump or Olding is my point.

Oh right, aye. Well- yep. But thats not new for Ulster either. We've been doing it since Pienaar arrived. Very rarely do we go for a specialist 10 on the bench.

ScarletSpiderman wrote:Jen, we drew with Bath at the Rec. and beat Glaws at PYS.  So for us it was a good pre-season.  Our pack seems pretty solid and stable, but our backs are looking a bit iffy still.

I will always remember Harry Robinson having the ball, unopposed down the wing against the Scarlets, a simple sprint in for a try, and Dom Day (a lock) ran him down on an angel and from futher behind and smashed him into touch!  Really really really really.......really unhappy he is in the match day 23, let alone starting, especially when he have the skills of Jordan Williams and Kris Phillips left sitting in the stands unable to get into the match day squad.

I do agree with you all that, looking at the teams, the weakness is going to be the half backs for both sides.  Priestland and Humphreys are prone to getting to much into their own heads.  I would expect Gog, Barclay and Pitman to be looking to smash Humph as soon as possible just to shake him up a bit (and likewise with your lads gunning for Priest).

Getting the excuses in early, its Fitzgibbon as ref.........

Oh no you don't, that's our early excuse, Fitzgibbon is always anti-Ulster and worth a few penalties to you guys. He's usually only ever worth a yellow card or two to us.