World Cup Predictions Competition - Charity Donation for Winner - Entries by Fri 13th Feb

Get your predictions in now and let's see how we all did at the end of the tournament. I have kept it simple so it's not too onerous to contribute. £25 donation to a charity of the winner's choice

Scoring System:
3 points per semi finalist
4 points per finalist
5 points for picking the overall winner

The maximum score is therefore 25

Tiebreak (TB) is number of sixes hit in the whole tournament.

VTR:
Winner: South Africa
Runners Up: New Zealand
Beaten Semi Finalists: England, Australia
TB: 450

Kingraf
Winner: Australia
Runners Up: South Africa
Beaten Semi Finalists: England, New Zealand
TB: 440

JDizzle
Winner: Australia
Runners Up: New Zealand
Beaten Semi Finalists: England, India
TB: 398

Guildfordbat
Winner: Australia
Runners Up: South Africa
Beaten Semi Finalists: Sri Lanka, New Zealand
TB: 680

Mike
Winner: Australia
Runners Up: New Zealand
Beaten Semi Finalists: South Africa, India
TB: 591

Stella
Winner: South Africa
Runner Up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: New Zealand, England
TB: 563

Biltong
Winner: Australia
Runner Up: New Zealand
Beaten Semi Finalists: South Africa, India
TB: 327

Liverbnz
Winner: New Zealand
Runner Up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: South Africa, West Indies
TB: 284

Duty
Winner: England
Runner Up: South Africa
Beaten Semi Finalists: New Zealand, Australia
TB: 387

Mad for Chelsea
Winners: Australia
Runners-Up: NZ
Beaten Semi Finalists: England, South Africa
TB: 527

Fernando
Winner: Sri Lanka
Runner Up: West Indies
Beaten Semi Finalists: Australia, India
TB: 437

The Loaded Dog
Winner: South Africa
Runner Up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: New Zealand, England
TB: 416

Corporal
Winner: New Zealand
Runner Up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: South Africa, Sri Lanka
TB: 512

Gerry SA
Winner: South Africa
Runners up: New Zealand
Beaten semi finalists: Australia, Sri Lanka
TB: 485

KP Fan
Winner: Australia
Runner Up: Pakistan
Beaten Semi Finalists: South Africa, New Zealand
TB: 450

mystiroakey
Winner: Australia
Runners Up: South Africa
Beaten Semi Finalists: England, New Zealand
TB: 438

alfie
Winner: Australia
Runners Up: England
Beaten Semi Finalists: New Zealand, Sri Lanka
TB: 468

Olly
Winner: New Zealand
Runners up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: West Indies, South Africa
TB: 505

Sportform
Winner: South Africa
Runners Up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: New Zealand, West Indies
TB: 366

Group 1
Australia
New Zealand
England
Sri Lanka

Group 2
South Africa
Pakistan
India
West Indies

Australia def - West Indies
New Zealand def India
England def Pakistan
South Africa (hopefully) def Sri Lanka

South Africa def New Zealand
Australia def England

Australia def South Africa, and no matter what happens... we'll be viewed as Chokers.

Group 1 - Australia, NZ, SL, England
Group 2 - SA, India, Pakistan, WI

Aus beat WI
NZ beat Pak
Ind beat SL
Eng beat SA

Aus beat India
NZ beat Eng

Aus beat NZ

I've predicted NZ to get to the final, despite not being as sold on them as a few are, but outside of Australia being clear favourites there isn't much to seperate the rest. On their day any of the teams can beat the other, bar Aus really, makes it real tough to predict!

Just possibly -

Group 1 - Australia, NZ, SL, England
Group 2 - SA, Pakistan, India, Ireland

Aus beat Ireland
NZ beat India
SL beat Pakistan
SA beat England

Aus beat SL
SA beat NZ

Aus beat SA.

In the unlikely event that I've correctly predicted early results, I hope I've got the subsequent ''who plays who'' right! As JD says, all very difficult to call although I do fancy Australia to take the trophy with their greater all round strength and belief plus the advantages of home pitches and home crowds.

Cheers for your inputs! I will add your predictions to the OP. And to make it a bit more interesting, I will come up with some kind of points system, and I will make a £25 donation to a charity of the winner's choice (mods, let me know if this is not ok!). Am open to suggestions on a scoring system, though roughly I don't want predicting the winner to be overly influential

Would urge a few more of the regulars to get involved, would be great if we can have 10 or so predicitons

The "Help KR buy a Porsche Foundation" is a real organisation.

kingraf wrote:The "Help KR buy a Porsche Foundation" is a real organisation.

I was waiting for such a comment!

Re the points system I am thinking 2 points per losing semi finalist, 3 for losing finalist, 4 for the picking the winner. I don't want someone to be able to pick the winner, get nothing else right and be able to win. I think I have come up with something that means if you get all 4 Semi Finalists you are in the hat, then the order of those comes in to play. As I would expect one or two to get the semi final line up 100% correct, which is not easy to do, so to me those should be in with a chance of winning.

Australia to beat New-Zealand in the final

New-Zealand will have beaten South Africa in the semi-final, whilst Australia will beat India.

I would fancy Pakistan for an upset, but I don't think they're consistent enough to get one of the top two finishes in their group, and they won't beat either Aus or NZ IMO. Plus Junaid Khan is a big absence.

VTR wrote:

... I don't want someone to be able to pick the winner, get nothing else right and be able to win ...

Aww, shucks! I'm fairly confident on the winner - the rest of my predictions are froth!

Seriously, your proposal seems both fine and generous. I would be surprised if the mods have any issue with it. Agree with you that it would be good to have a few more contributions from other regulars and also those lurking a bit in the shadows (freemo always used to be up for this sort of thing).

We have 5 entries now. I would be looking for KP_Fan, msp, Stella, Mad for Chelsea at the very least to get involved.

Please note I am usually only on here during the week, but I will try to keep on top of things! And I will work on that scoring system when I have a bit more time (and I think I need a tiebreaker question as well!)

Winner - South Africa
Runner Up - Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists - New Zealand - England

If it's not too much of a schlep, I'd rate you should include the Quarter finals as well. Just decreases the likelihood of Guildford getting a flukey selection... and makes it a little more interesting

kingraf wrote:If it's not too much of a schlep, I'd rate you should include the Quarter finals as well. Just decreases the likelihood of Guildford getting a flukey selection... and makes it a little more interesting

Hmm tempting, let me see how the entries go as if we get to something like 15 I think my head will explode administering that. Also I thought a lot of people will go for the same QF lineup as the 8 frontline Test nations are hard to look beyond given the format.

Add a top run scorer, wicket taker, perhaps?

Stella wrote:Add a top run scorer, wicket taker, perhaps?

Am thinking of those as a tie-breaker. Though I quite like the idea of something a bit different like worst team!

Should add I am trying to keep it accessible i.e. you don't have to look at the draw or even know much about cricket to play. I think when you add in predict QFs, run scorers etc it does require a bit of knowledge (the kind of thing we as cricket fans take for granted)

I tell you what, if it just attracts regulars then I will expand the format to something a bit more challenging

Winner Australia
Losing finalist New Zealand
Losing semi finalists South Africa and India

Winner New Zealand
Losing finalist Australia
Losing semi finalists South Africa and West Indies

Group 1 - New Zealand, Australia, England, Sri Lanka
Group 2 - South Africa, Pakistan, Ireland, India

New Zealand beat India
Australia beat Ireland
England beat Pakistan
South Africa beat Sri Lanka

England beat New Zealand
South Africa beat Australia

England beat South Africa

Duty - with England so nailed on to win the tournament, are you convinced that all the other countries will actually turn up?

I have one question for those suggesting SA will win this.

Based on What?

Ssh Biltong. They don't have the years of mental scarring we do!

kingraf wrote:Ssh Biltong. They don't have the years of mental scarring we do!

True, only those of us who have lived through 6 heartbreak world cups will know that we have zero chance of winning this. If we as fans have gotten to a point where we don't even have any expectations, imagine the mental scars of our players.

AB and Amla.

Spain had the chocking tag for years in Football, then duly won three tournaments on the trott, remember.

I put SA to win based on Amla and AB in form plus more than capable support and a strong seam bowling attack.

Stella beat me to mentioning Spain, you could also add the All Blacks to that list, SA always have a strong team and one day the door will come down I am sure.

Yep AB and Amla are elite level cricketers, and easily the best ODI batsmen we've ever produced. Saying this doesn't factor in that AB was part of the brave cricket debacle that had us 27-5 against Australia in the 2007 edition. Or the fact that he was a part of the collapse against New Zealand in the 2011 WC. I'm not going to get my hopes up. A final appearance in itself would be a dream performance, as it would need us to win two more knockout matches than we've won in every world cup ever.

Thought I was imagining it, but having looked it up on Cricinfo, we did choke against England in the 2011 edition as well. Having been 124/3 we managed to get bundled for 165 chasing 172. Evidence if ever you need it that if you're there or thereabouts against us, eventually at some point, we'll collapse like a deck of cards.

1999 was your big missed opportunity so far. You were the best team but lost out in a thriller, and Pakistan were there for the taking in the final.

Yeah, definitely. Thing is with Hansie, and everything that then turned out. I think it's for the best that we didn't win it. Cricket always comes back from drama, like all sports, but a World Cup winning captain being found guilty of having accepted £100k in bribes would have been a sizeable blow

Fair point re Cronje - I had pretty much forgotten about all that.

Main thing I remember from that WC was Klusener, he was absolutely brilliant! I really enjoyed that WC as it was played in England and all the matches were on free to air TV. I was a student back then also so I had the time to watch nearly all of it!

Lets not forget South Africa had a raw deal in the 1992, when they were asked to score 21 off one ball, thanks to I think, a DL man sausage up.

Stella wrote:Lets not forget South Africa had a raw deal in the 1992, when they were asked to score 21 off one ball, thanks to I think, a DL man sausage up.

Well I think we focus too much on the 22 off 1 ball, prior to the rain we needed 22 off 14 balls, at that stage it looked unlikely, remember batsmen then struggled to hit 9 off an over.

1996 was a huge disappointment, 1999 was just pathetic, 2003 was equally pathetic, we supposedly misread the Duckworth Lewis, the reality is we had West
Indies on the rope, by memory they had 59/3 after 20 overs, by 2007 I stopped following the ICC world cup as I had no expectation from them.

They have a huge mental block and only "lucking" their way into a final will get them there.

That was before DL had been invented Stella, and was under the previous system which was ridiculous: if the team batting second lost overs somewhere in their innings, their target would be reduced by the amount of runs corresponding to the team batting first's least productive overs. Thus, with SA needing 22 from 13 balls, when an interruption came (I think a discussion about the light), England's two least productive overs were knowked off the required total. Given that England faced (at least) two maiden overs in their innings, this meant a grand total of ZERO runs being knocked off the target, leaving SA needing 22 off 1 ball. I think that's it, read about it in "Cricket's strangest matches" (good fun read BTW). So whatever people's complaints may be about DL, it's certainly an improvement

Anyway, predictions. The format of the tournament isn't really conductive to significant upsets, and I don't think SL will do too well in these conditions (their bowling attack is simply too spin-orientated). WI are a mess, and don't think Pak have the consistency. Given the triangular series suggests England are a slightly better side than India in these conditions I'm backing them to make the last four, thus:

Winners: Australia
Runners-Up: NZ
Losing in semis: England and SA.

Biltong wrote:

Stella wrote:Lets not forget South Africa had a raw deal in the 1992, when they were asked to score 21 off one ball, thanks to I think, a DL man sausage up.

Well I think we focus too much on the 22 off 1 ball, prior to the rain we needed 22 off 14 balls, at that stage it looked unlikely, remember batsmen then struggled to hit 9 off an over.

1996 was a huge disappointment, 1999 was just pathetic, 2003 was equally pathetic, we supposedly misread the Duckworth Lewis, the reality is we had West
Indies on the rope, by memory they had 59/3 after 20 overs, by 2007 I stopped following the ICC world cup as I had no expectation from them.

They have a huge mental block and only "lucking" their way into a final will get them there.

22 off 14 even then, was manageable.

I wasn't born then, but didn't the South Africans go particularly slowly during the England innings to make sure that England didn't get their full 50 overs in, especially at the end when England were going really well? I remember someone giving in an interview saying they didn't have much sympathy for that reason, or something along those lines.

Stella wrote:
22 off 14 even then, was manageable.

Definitely, especially if you look at Pakistan in the other semi-final.

I am pretty sure Richie Benaud was heavily involved in coming up with rain rules that were used in the 92 tournament.

EDIT: Yes he was, and this is an excellent read. Especially about the effect on the England - Pakistan game which was even more farcical

http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/content/story/508066.html

JDizzle wrote:I wasn't born then, but didn't the South Africans go particularly slowly during the England innings to make sure that England didn't get their full 50 overs in, especially at the end when England were going really well? I remember someone giving in an interview saying they didn't have much sympathy for that reason, or something along those lines.

I can't remember that, but the only thing that stands out is the final ball incident.

But we've been party to some proper rulebook defeats. Lost to the rain in 1992. We needed 45 off five overs earlier, and got it down to 22-13 so we were obviously of scoring at the required rate. Then lost out on a final berth against the Aussie in 1999 due to a 0.17 difference in net run rate or something. Then in 2003 our challenge was bookended by some incompetence. In the final group match, Boucher blocked the final ball when a single would have seen us through, but in the first match against the Windies, which we lost by 3 runs, we lost an over due to a slow over rate.

Winner: Sri Lanka
Runner Up: West Indies
Semi's: Australia & India

Have had way more entries than expected - thanks for everyone who has entered so far!

Going to need a tiebreaker I think, so I have decided it is number of sixes hit in the whole tournament.

Everyone has to have a unique prediction so first come first served.

563

I make it there were 258 in the 2011 edition for a bit of context - would appreciate if someone could check that though! I think the format is the same so same number of matches this year as in 2011?

I think there are about 50 matches. 563 could be too high?

Stella wrote:I think there are about 50 matches. 563 could be too high?

It's more likely than England winning - sorry, Duty!

Stella wrote:I think there are about 50 matches. 563 could be too high?

Looks like 49 - 42 Group games, then 7 at the finals stage. To be fair, I was going to take the number of games x 10 plus a bit so I see where you are coming from.

I am not 100% certain my 258 is correct, anyone else who is good on Statsguru having a look would help. Maybe the associates don't hit many sixes so that brings the number down?

And feel free to revise your estimate if that 258 is correct, as everyone else has the advantage of seeing that figure.

If AB gets going against an associate, my guess could be close.

Stella wrote:If AB gets going against an associate, my guess could be close.

True! This is the query I used

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/stats/index.html?class=2;filter=advanced;orderby=sixes;series=4857;size=200;template=results;type=batting

Maybe it wasn't much of a tournament for hitting sixes, England for example seem to have hit about 10 in total in the whole tournament, the kind of total they should manage per match on a decent wicket these days. Also MS Dhoni only 3 in the whole tournament!!

Stella wrote:If AB gets going against an associate, my guess could be close.

Yep, like that famous associate side the West Indies I know it wasn't meant that way, but given Dave Richardson's recent comments on reducing the number of teams etc. at the moment I am more than a bit touchy on the subject.

Actually think you're not miles off Stella. Worth remembering grounds in New Zealand are on the short side as well, and every side these days has a number of big hitters. I'm going to go even higher for 591 and then feel silly if I get it hopelessly wrong.

Good point re the NZ grounds. To avoid any possible accusations of foul play I am now going for 450 final answer!

Winner: South Africa
Runner Up: Australia
Beaten Semi Finalists: New Zealand, England
Beaten Quarter-Finalists: West Indies, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka
TB: 367 sixes (or just under 7.5 per match)

May as well go for something different... even though I hope Australia can win it.

Thanks for organising this, VTR... and wishing everyone good luck!