Rome Masters 1000 2015

Djokovic has been drawn in the same quarter as Nishikori and the same half as Murray. Djokovic could get Almagro in his first match as well.

Nadal drawn in the same quarter as Wawrinka and same half as Federer. Seems as though Nadal has a better draw.

Brutal for Djokovic. Almagro - Bautista Agut - Nishikori - Murray - Nadal.

Yeah very, I am sure Djoko will lose sleep from tonight.

That's a horrific draw for Novak. If he wins Rome from that start (inc. beating Rafa), I think it's safe to say he is favourite for RG.

Nadal has Mannarino, Isner, either Simon/Stan, one of Dimi/Berdych/Fed and then finally one of Ferrer/Murray/Kei/Novak. I don't think he's any better.

Nole's draw looks horrible on paper, BUT:

Both Nishi and Andy have now gone deep in back-to-back tournaments. I would not be surprised if they both chose to take it easy in Rome, in which case Nole's draw could open up nicely.

The loss of form of a bunch of good players and the rise of a few new ones has left a lot of draws looking like s nightmare

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Nadal has Mannarino, Isner, either Simon/Stan, one of Dimi/Berdych/Fed and then finally one of Ferrer/Murray/Kei/Novak.  I don't think he's any better.

Much easier than Novak's, IMO.

Isner is a big danger, but Bautista-Agut is no mug and a tough early opponent. Novak's QF is massively more difficult, and SF too unless Federer or Berdych really turn up.

Bautista? He was dispatched easily by Kei! Kei in the QF? After watching how he lost to Murray in straight sets, I don't think Kei is much trouble for Djoko! Also, Kei has been playing much tennis this clay season, I doubt he would be fresh enough to trouble Djoko in the QF, likewise for Ferrer or Murray.

Rafa has a much fresher Stan, who lost narrowly to Dimi) and Fed at QF and SF (Berdych may not make it past Fed). Isner is no mug on clay and it's tough handling his serves. So, on paper Djoko's draw looks tough, but look at his potential opponents, they've played much tennis this clay season and I doubt they would have anything to trouble Djoko.

Tbh it is swings and roundabouts though Belovedluckyboy. I mean you could say that Rafa who has Stan who is out of form and a pale shadow of himself, Isner was beaten by Berdych who Rafa dispatched with the minimum of fuss and Federer who he has a history of ownership on.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Bautista? He was dispatched easily by Kei! Kei in the QF? After watching how he lost to Murray in straight sets, I don't think Kei is much trouble for Djoko! Also, Kei has been playing much tennis this clay season, I doubt he would be fresh enough to trouble Djoko in the QF, likewise for Ferrer or Murray.  

Rafa has a much fresher Stan, who lost narrowly to Dimi) and Fed at QF and SF (Berdych may not make it past Fed).  Isner is no mug on clay and it's tough handling his serves. So, on paper Djoko's draw looks tough, but look at his potential opponents, they've played much tennis this clay season and I doubt they would have anything to trouble Djoko.

Ok.

Will be interested to see how Murray does...his matches in Madrid were not too long, so he might be OK.

CC, after watching Rafa in this Madrid final, do you not think that any draw is difficult for Rafa? I think Rafa may drop another 510 points at Rome and falls out of top ten. IMO, that may not matter too much to Rafa at the FO, as wherever they put him in the FO draw, he'll still work his way through the draw, struggle or no struggle. It's a matter of when he faces a tough opponent and then loses.

I do believe that Rafa will not win the FO this year, and then he'll play more freely when he has nothing to lose anymore and no expectations from himself and anyone else. The guy couldn't handle pressure these days, it seems the never say die spirit has already deserted the man.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:CC, after watching Rafa in this Madrid final, do you not think that any draw is difficult for Rafa?  I think Rafa may drop another 510 points at Rome and falls out of top ten. IMO, that may not matter too much to Rafa at the FO, as wherever they put him in the FO draw, he'll still work his way through the draw, struggle or no struggle. It's a matter of when he faces a tough opponent and then loses.

I do believe that Rafa will not win the FO this year, and then he'll play more freely when he has nothing to lose anymore and no expectations from himself and anyone else.  The guy couldn't handle pressure these days, it seems the never say die spirit has already deserted the man.

Of course to Rafa and his supporters when your player is off form then you start seeing demons in any draw. That is what a lack of confidence does to you. I've been there before with Andy. It happens.

Rafa is off form no doubt, Toni had underestimated Rafa's current problem, he thought that Rafa would be fine after the Berdych match and talked of Rafa switching to new racket after Wimbledon. I mean, why so eager to meddle with Rafa's racket? They'd made a mistake by letting Rafa did the racket switch at the start of the clay season and then had to switch back. Rafa was already not feeling confident and they still wanted him to get used to new thing, they'd literally thrown away Rafa's chances of retaining the FO title this year imo. I would guess that had Rafa not done the silly racket switches in the first place, by now he should be in a better place where his game and rankings are concerned, such bad decision making!

Novak's draw is tough if he gets knocked out relatively early he may be a bit undercooked for the French open. Still I mean he goes into it probably the favorite in every match and as others have stated draws can have a way of opening up with just one or two upsets here or injuries here and there.

The implications of Nadal falling short in Rome are huge. Going into the French outside the top 4 will see him exposed to potential early exits which in turn would see him outside the top 10 at Wimbledon.

You can look at it both ways; it makes him a super-dangerous floater for the top guys, but it also puts him in a position where it becomes very hard to get the draws to reach the end of events without meeting a top player.

He desperately needs a win here.

Nah, he may not win anything this clay season or grass season, but with no points to defend in the later half of the season and if his game is back to normal, he'll be a dangerous floater than anything else. Its not like he couldnt win matches anymore, just not consistently winning them but still good enough to reach QF and SF. If he loses early on clay and grass he would end up feeling fresher for the rest of the season while the top guys are busy winning on clay and grass.

The way hes playing now, even if he wont win the FO, he may at least reach the QF there, so he may end up in top 12 in the rankings, so meeting the likes of Berdych, Ferrer, Raonic or Stan in the QF, with 50-50 chances of winning.

By Rafa's standard thats not good enough, but as long as he continues to plough his way through week in week out, hes good enough to get back to top ten or top eight if not top four. As long as he reaches the SFs he will have his chances to reach the final and wins there.

Rafa is good enough to do all that even if hes in the decline, hes younger than Fed and is ahead of Fed in the race right now, even if Rafa is not winning any slam this year, he may win one or two more before he retires, no one can say for sure that he can't.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa is off form no doubt, Toni had underestimated Rafa's current problem, he thought that Rafa would be fine after the Berdych match and talked of Rafa switching to new racket after Wimbledon. I mean,  why so eager to meddle with Rafa's racket? They'd made a mistake by letting Rafa did the racket switch at the start of the clay season and then had to switch back. Rafa was already not feeling confident and they still wanted him to get used to new thing, they'd literally thrown away Rafa's chances of retaining the FO title this year imo.  I would guess that had Rafa not done the silly racket switches in the first place, by now he should be in a better place where his game and rankings are concerned, such bad decision making!

I am inclined to agree with that it was bad decision made at a bad time for Rafa. I remember years back when Novak struggled with he change to a HEAD raquet, Federer on the other hand seemed to make the transition fairly smoothly.
But as Rafa is such a creature of habit I found it a strange decision. The only thing I wonder is that Rafa said the new racquet gave him more power but less control. Seeing some of Rafa's shots, ie yesterday against Andy, he can seemingly barely get them over he net at times.. the power in his shots are not as the Rafa norm.. which leaves me with a huge ???

Haddie-nuff wrote:

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Rafa is off form no doubt, Toni had underestimated Rafa's current problem, he thought that Rafa would be fine after the Berdych match and talked of Rafa switching to new racket after Wimbledon. I mean,  why so eager to meddle with Rafa's racket? They'd made a mistake by letting Rafa did the racket switch at the start of the clay season and then had to switch back. Rafa was already not feeling confident and they still wanted him to get used to new thing, they'd literally thrown away Rafa's chances of retaining the FO title this year imo.  I would guess that had Rafa not done the silly racket switches in the first place, by now he should be in a better place where his game and rankings are concerned, such bad decision making!

I am inclined to agree with that it was  bad decision made at a bad time for Rafa.  I remember years back when Novak struggled with he change to a HEAD raquet, Federer on the other hand seemed to make the transition fairly smoothly.
But as Rafa is such a creature of habit I found it a strange decision.  The only thing I wonder is that Rafa said the new racquet gave him more power but less control. Seeing some of Rafa's shots, ie  yesterday against Andy, he can seemingly barely get them over he net at times.. the power in his shots are not as the Rafa norm.. which leaves me with a huge ???

But you do need confidence to play such shots and with confidence comes conviction and consistency. He came into the match with elevated levels of confidence getting to a Masters Final but that confidence gradually ebbed away. Note the display - the first set he got off to a sluggish start and Murray pounced but Nadal hung in there but couldn't get the break back but he played a lot of cracking shots amidst less so stuff but once he lost the first set that elevated confidence eroded and vanished when Murray broke early in the second set. Thereafter as confidence levels dropped Rafa's standard dropped. That is not coincedence in my opinion.

I didn't see Rafa having confidence in the first place. He was sluggish from the get go, as if didn't know what to expect from Murray. He probably had seen Murray vs Kei match and realized a formidable Murray on clay. Rafa wasn't the one taking things into his own hands but rather waiting to react based on what his opponent did. It's only when he couldn't win from the baseline anymore that he finally woke up, albeit too late, and approached the net, with successes. He won 10 out of 11 points at the net, clearly he should have changed things up earlier to have a better chance of winning points instead of taking so long to realize that.

I think there's something wrong with Rafa's timing, maybe he's a bit slow (I felt that during the match) and so resulting in not timing his shots well and so the powder puff FH shots, or simply shanking his shots. Murray was moving Rafa from side to side, dictating with his BH, but Rafa after a few not so good FHDTL, had ended up sticking to his FHCC shots and so had to run left and right to defend and to protect his weak BH. I think playing at night for the first time had not helped him, when the ball was slower and not lively compared to during the day and he had not the chance to play a night match prior to that. It's not the all conquering Rafa we're talking about, but a Rafa who's so vulnerable that any minor changes would affect him greatly.

Maybe there's fear in Rafa, when he sees Fog and Murray across the net. If not, how do we explain the bizarre drop in level from one day to the next - from beating Almagro comfortably to losing to Fog bizarrely, and from beating Berdych brilliantly to losing meekly to Murray?

He wasn;t brilliant at all vs Berdych.

Soory LuvSports but I disagree. I thought he was excellent even if Berdych faded badly in the second set. I looked around and Sky, BBC and ATP site all (using their own terminology) were very impressed.

Yep, Rafa was brilliant vs Berdych, hitting his FH at will and not missing. The way Rafa played the final was rather perplexing. If he could start his match vs Novak at MC playing a more aggressive style, then why was he so flat vs Murray in the Madrid final? Was it because this was his first Masters final of the year, and was in front of the home crowd and thus made him more nervous? I guess a lot depends on how Rafa feels on the day itself, if he's more nervous, ie less calm, he'll tend to make more errors and couldn't think clearly out there on the tennis court.

No need to apologise CC, just agree to disagree.
I thought he played better vs Novak

Belovedluckyboy I have said it before why the final went the way it did. Rafa came in with his confidence raised a bit on where it was but the Murray he was playing was not Murray claycourt of old. Rafa needed Andy to get off to a sluggish start to find his rhythm and keep confidence at a rising level but that never happened. Andy pounced on Rafa's nervousness and broke early deflating some of Rafa's confidence. Deflate that and tennis becomes a heck of a lot harder. Rafa didn't play too shabbily at all in the first set and threatened to break back a couple of time but Andy hung tough where before he may have succumbed. Andy took the first set further deflating Rafa and from there it was a downward spiral for him.

LuvSports! wrote:No need to apologise CC, just agree to disagree.
I thought he played better vs Novak

Okay.

Just to clarify - I was in the mindset that it was the best I'd seen Rafa play certainly this year and perhaps since he won RG which isn't saying a lot really. I wasn't saying he was back to his best or anything just to clear things up.

I was curious and wanted to see what other outlets thought of his performance V Berdych and Sky, BBC and the ATP site all gave a flowing report on Rafa. Surely, they all can't be wrong. And just to back it up he never dropped a set getting to the final so that shows he found some semblance of form.

Nah, how do you explain Rafa's sluggishness in the first tew games of the first set? It was when he's 0-3 down that he woke up and gave chase, not unlike his match vs Novak at MC2013 final. It's precisely because he's not confident that he played so sluggishly in the first place. I don't think he's expecting the Murray of old on clay, after watching him beating Raonic and Kei comfortably.

Watch Rafa's body language and you'll realize he's not a confident man throughout the match. You can tell from looking at his face, his eyes especially, and that's from watching him match after match throughout his career.

Rafa was miles better in the 2nd set against Berdych than in any other match I have seen him play this year. Its the only time the forehand has looked anywhere near its best. I thought his performance against Andy was very similar to that against Novak in MC. Some signs of promise but ultimately fading when the pressure was applied.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Nah, how do you explain Rafa's sluggishness in the first tew games of the first set?  It was when he's 0-3 down that he woke up and gave chase, not unlike his match vs Novak at MC2013 final.  It's precisely because he's not confident that he played so sluggishly in the first place.  I don't think he's expecting the Murray of old on clay, after watching him beating Raonic and Kei comfortably.  

He started off nervous - the pudits spotted it and Andy pounced. Andy came into the match full of beans confident after winning in Munich, confident in reaching his first Masters clay court tournament and that saw  him start quickly - just what Rafa didn't need. Andy has broken Rafa's serve on clay before (even when Rafa was in his prime) but this is a new and improved Murray on clay. Rafa found his rhythm as the set wore on and threatened to break serve but couldn't manage it. He lost the first set, Murray's confidence and self-belief rose , Rafa's headed southward and the second set demonstrated that.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Watch Rafa's body language and you'll realize he's not a confident man throughout the match.  You can tell from looking at his face, his eyes especially, and that's from watching him match after match throughout his career.

He started off nervous. It is foolish to suggest his dander wasn't up coming into the match (watch his pre-match pressers for that) but nervous he was. Still in his current low ebb he needed a helping hand at the start of the match such as Andy being nervous and starting slowly to allow him to get off to a solid start but it didn't happen. Rafa's nerves were there whilst Andy went for the throat and broke early. That brittle confidence was shaken and blown out of the water when he lost the first set. Having been on a downer for so long it doesn't take much to evaporate away the confidence he had got from reaching the final.

What promise, when hes giving chase right from the start? At MC this year, it was Rafa who broke serve and was leading 2-0 before Novak woke up to play. Theyre totally different scenarios. This Madrid final was similar to that MC final in 2013, when Rafa started slow and had to give chase from start to finish.

Well, wasnt the Barcelona experience very much similar to this one, ie after a good match, Rafa played nervously when facing Fog there, just like this Madrid final? I really doubt that Rafa was full of confidence coming into the final, especially when Murray was playing so well.

We have to agree to disagree here. Rafa himself couldnt even explain why his level fluctuates that much from match to match, and hes just happy that he's still able to play some good tennis at times and he's yet to find his consistency; I doubt hes feeling confident at the moment.

Belovedluckyboy wrote:Well, wasnt the Barcelona experience very much similar to this one, ie after a good match, Rafa played nervously when facing Fog there, just like this Madrid final? I really doubt that Rafa was full of confidence coming into the final, especially when Murray was playing so well.  

We have to agree to disagree here. Rafa himself couldnt even explain why his level fluctuates that much from match to match, and hes just happy that he's still able to play some good tennis at times and he's yet to find his consistency; I doubt hes feeling confident at the moment.

I never said he was full of confidence but was certainly more confident than he had been of late. You can't tell me he got to a Masters Final beating players of the calibre of Dimitrov and Berdych without gaining any confidence from them? As I said as well - look how buoyed by his form pre-final in his pressers - it speaks volumes. However, it was a brittle confidence which cupled with a nervous start by him and a quick start by Murray set both player's confidence heading in opposite directions.

Here are some of his quotes after beating Berdych:

"For the past couple of days I have been playing better and better every day," said Nadal. "That's always very good news. I am in the final. I am happy for that. I am enjoying a lot the fact that I am playing in front of an unbelievable crowd. For me, that's the best crowd in the world without any doubt. So that gives me a lot of really positive energy.

"Today I played again at a very good level. I did yesterday; today I played at a very, very high level. Let's see tomorrow if I am able to continue with that positive feeling. This week has been fantastic for me. This is a very important result, and that's confidence, that's positive energy. That's calm, too. Let's try to continue tomorrow and try to continue with that good feeling next week. I worked a lot to have that feeling, and today I had that feeling that I've been trying to find for a while."

Sounds confident to me.

How's the early results going on in Rome?

temporary21 wrote:How's the early results going on in Rome?

A win for Stan Wawrinka against Juan Monaco, Cilic knocked out and Kyrgios lost to Deliciano Lopez.

Novak just getting under way against Almagro.

Djokovic already in control and leads 4-1.

First set was a walk in the park for Novak winning it 6-1. The second is much closer. Tiebreak time.

Djokovic now embroiled in an unexpected scrap as Almagro takes the tie break 7-5. One set all and Almagro takes his first set ever off Djokovic.

Well done Almagro. It would've been so easy to fold at 5-2 down in that TB. He's always been a frustrating player - like Berdych he has huge physical gifts but is not mentally strong.

A few errors from Novak there - one for HM's thread?

Novak breaks in the final set to lead 5-3.

So Novak safely through but had to work harder for it than was expected. Andy Murray confirming he will play the Rome Masters and plays Jeremy Chardy in the Second Round tomorrow morning.

CaledonianCraig wrote:So Novak safely through but had to work harder for it than was expected. Andy Murray confirming he will play the Rome Masters and plays Jeremy Chardy in the Second Round tomorrow morning.

't

Providing Chardy doesn't get trapped in the hotel lift again.

Good that Murray plays Rome. I hope to see the new improved Murray vs Novak here in Rome, maybe they can produce something like their 2011 encounter.

Haddie-nuff wrote:

CaledonianCraig wrote:So Novak safely through but had to work harder for it than was expected. Andy Murray confirming he will play the Rome Masters and plays Jeremy Chardy in the Second Round tomorrow morning.

't

Providing Chardy doesn't get trapped in the hotel lift again.

I am glad Novak got this win not because it changes much if he wins or loses Rome but just so he gets a few matches before the FO after a three week layoff. Almagro played really well in the second set and served huge. I think it will be a big bonus if Novak wins this and prevents Nadal from gaining any traction or confidence prior to the FO.

Rafa may not even go far enough to meet Novak. Anyway, as Toni said, the results at Madrid and Rome dont have any bearing on the result at RG for Rafa.

Rafa lost to Novak at Rome and almost lost to Kei at Madrid last year, he still managed to win at the FO. He may not be playing any better this year, but no one really knows which Rafa will turn up to play at each match.

I'm not expecting anything from Rafa and I do feel more calm during his match when I'm not expecting him to win. I guess his fans have now learned not to expect much from him, until he gets his consistency back.

Itll be interesting to see how Murray and Kei do at the FO this year, I think they can go far this year, especially for Kei who lost early last year.