Rome Masters 1000 2015

by Jermaine2015 Fri 08 May 2015, 9:21 pm

First topic message reminder :

Djokovic has been drawn in the same quarter as Nishikori and the same half as Murray. Djokovic could get Almagro in his first match as well.

Nadal drawn in the same quarter as Wawrinka and same half as Federer. Seems as though Nadal has a better draw.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 1:27 am

He should look at how he returns vs Berdych at Madrid and adopt that method of returning, ie varying his court positions when returning serves.

I thought he played at least two very good matches this clay season, vs Berdych at Madrid and vs Isner at Rome, both day matches with the sun energising the balls making them more lively.

If Rafa couldnt defend his FO title, I think he should learn to move on, and without anything else to defend, I hope he plays more freely and without pressure, probably writing off 2015 and playing to gain momentum to prepare for 2016. Hopefully he still stays in top 8 by the end of the season.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 1:37 am

I saw Fed fist pumping too at his opponents mistakes, so I dont think its only Rafa. Nothing wrong when you're eager to won the point.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 1:49 am

Wow, that is surprising. Rafa is going to the RG not having won a single clay court tournament in Europe.

And there will be players in Paris who will now at least think they have hope. It could be very interesting FO this year.

by **laverfan** Sat 16 May 2015, 2:25 am

Belovedluckyboy wrote:I saw Fed fist pumping too at his opponents mistakes, so I dont think its only Rafa. Nothing wrong when you're eager to won the point.

This is an advertisement on US TV about a chain of pharmacies. The name of the advertisement is called Fist. It is a miniature of how humans use their fists.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 2:31 am

Not surprising, judging by the way Rafa is playing at the moment. The guy can't take any pressure these days, and I wont be surprised that he loses at the FO this year and becomes just another contender like any other player on clay.

He seriously needs to revamp his game, as a loss of speed and power would see him becoming beatable on clay when the conditions suits his opponents more than it suits him. Hes playing way too far behind the baseline and has never adjusted that since he first won big titles on clay in 2005, with only a few rare exceptions. Ive mentioned before, he should look to Fed or even Novak, and learn to play a game that suits all surfaces, ie a more aggressive game that can win on any surface, instead of having to adjust that much from surface to surface. Hes not that young anymore and its important that he plays a more energy saving game instead of having to grind from so far behind the baseline.

In a way the losses this year will do some good for him, at least make him realize that his game on clay is no longer adequate to beat the big guys or guys who plays red hot tennis. So its time to play a more aggressive brand of tennis which he's capable of playing, during his earlier days, or as late as in 2013 where he showed glimpses of what hes capable of playing, at the second half NA HC season.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 2:39 am

I am watching Stan vs Rafa now. Just finished the first set. Rafa is actually playing quite well - certainly I would say better than against Andy. All in all, he has been steadily improving and he still has time before the RG.

I would not write him off yet. For me he is still the #1 favorite for the FO, though I agree it is far more open this year than usual. And I would also agree that Nole will be kicking himself if he fails to win this year.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 2:52 am

Rafa will probably have Kygrios, Isner, Stan, Murray,Djokovic and then Fed all lining up for him at the FO this year!

Over five sets, if conditions permits, he may be able to get through the first few rounds, until maybe he meets Stan in the fourth round. If Stan meets Rafa there, can he do a Sod, ie hammering relentlessly for three to five sets to beat Rafa? Maybe a break like a Wimbledon 2012 when Rafa played Rosol, would help Stan's cause or course.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 3:52 am

Oh i forget there's Foggy, so maybe Foggy will be there to torture Rafa too. One thing about Rafa, hes exceptionally tense when playing against someone who happens to beat him recently, so more nervous moments and more TVs at BPs!

by **laverfan** Sat 16 May 2015, 3:57 am

Wawrinka's coach was Soderlings's coach too. In his heyday, Magnus Norman was known as Forehand. If it had not been for injury, Norman would have at least a Clay slam. It is showing up now in Wawrinka.

Some fantastic defensive stuff from Nadal, despite the loss.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 5:16 am

Well I've no doubt the Nadal of the past would be able to handle this Stan but not the present Rafa.

I dont understand why Rafa tend to play more defensively at night, probably less confident at night because he knows his topspin doesnt work well under heavier conditions. Strange mindset, should be more aggressive to compensate for lacking of power at night.

by bogbrush Sat 16 May 2015, 8:18 am

Nadal had virtually no attacking game. The only thing going for him was defence, hence Stan racked up loads of UE's despite winning.

His best hope at RG is a heatwave so he can send his high bouncy shots into the stratosphere. It's hardly tennis in my book, but it's won him a lot in the past. If it's damp then he has no chance.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 8:33 am

Ha, a bit of exageration, Rafa certainly has an attacking game, if not he wont hit that many winners vs Berdych or Isner or Murray even without service winners like aces. He has won many winners at the net, thats not pure defensive game alright.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 8:36 am

...and I guess on a bad day like that Madrid final when everything else fails, he still could win points at the net amd thats about the only thing left in his game, so perhaps he should move up to the net on a bad day.

by bogbrush Sat 16 May 2015, 9:31 am

A few years ago he didn't just passively rally like last night, he saw any ball not within a foot of the baseline as something to muscle into bad places. Now he seems content to rally and wait for errors, and when he does try to be aggressive a tendency towards over hitting seems prevalent.

I agree he has a very good net game but that's only a variation, he will only win if the bread and butter is in good shape.

It's too early to count him out for sure but I always felt that when the decline came it would be rapid - his game is so dependent on physical superiority. This pattern matches that profile but more evidence is needed.

by Haddie-nuff Sat 16 May 2015, 9:37 am

bogbrush wrote:A few years ago he didn't just passively rally like last night, he saw any ball not within a foot of the baseline as something to muscle into bad places. Now he seems content to rally and wait for errors, and when he does hit out his over hitting seems prevalent.

I agree he has a very good net game but that's only a variation, he will only win if the bread and butter is in good shape.

It's too early to count him out for sure but I always felt that when the decline came it would be rapid - his game is so dependent on physical superiority. This pattern matches that profile but more evidence is needed.

i

Now THAT is the best assessment of the state of Rafa's game I have heard from anyone.. am I surprised yes but its absolutely an opinion I can agree with

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 9:46 am

Well, Borg once said that in order to beat Rafa the beast on clay, one needs to be able to stay with Rafa on the tennis court for as long as possible, ie matching him physically. Borg and Muster, or Lendl, are all physical beast to play and win on clay and you can't argue with Borg who knows what's needed to dominate on clay! I feel other than tennis skills, you still need speed and power and good movement on clay, something the dominant guys all possessed.

Like I said earlier, now that Rafa is no longer that young and physically not at tip top conditions anymore, he has to adopt a more aggressive approach, and playing the HC game, that of being more aggressive and offensive, and finishes points quicker maybe the way forward for him.

It he's not going to win on clay playing the same old way, then forgoing the old way and adopting a new approach may be easier decision for him to make this time. When you're winning everything it's hard for you to change, it's when you're losing everything that makes the decision to change a bit easier.

by LuvSports! Sat 16 May 2015, 10:14 am

His movement is as good as ever. Watching him last night, his defence was insane.

by Born Slippy Sat 16 May 2015, 10:16 am

bogbrush wrote:A few years ago he didn't just passively rally like last night, he saw any ball not within a foot of the baseline as something to muscle into bad places. Now he seems content to rally and wait for errors, and when he does try to be aggressive a tendency towards over hitting seems prevalent.

I agree he has a very good net game but that's only a variation, he will only win if the bread and butter is in good shape.

It's too early to count him out for sure but I always felt that when the decline came it would be rapid - his game is so dependent on physical superiority. This pattern matches that profile but more evidence is needed.

Nice post. Physically he hasn't looked in bad shape to me though. His movement was exceptional against both Andy and Stan. It may be he no longer has such incredible levels of stamina - which will be more apparent at the French. However, that could be more due to the curtailed pre-season than age.

I agree this could be decline - he's certainly had enough physical issues in the past. However, it could also be similar to Roger's 2013 or Murray last year when they were struggling. Too early to tell.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 10:40 am

Rafa himself said that we can't expect him to win all the time, he's hinting that he's no longer the same and so I think he and we know he's in the decline.

He may still be able to win the big prizes but with more effort. I do agree his stamina and fitness level is not up to par yet, he said his legs weren't quick enough, so maybe he still needs time to get back his fitness. He's quite an unlucky guy, that twice when he's doing so well and looked like he's dominating, or dominating again, that he had to have injuries or illness. First it was in 2009, and then it was in 2014.

At one stretch from clay season in 2008 to the next clay season before the FO in 2009, he was having some 14,000+ ranking points (current system) but his injury in 2009 had halted everything that he built from 2008. In 2013 after coming back from long injury break, he had accumulated more than 14,000 ranking points up to the final at the AO, and then the back injury happened, that was when Novak lost at the QF stage and lost a huge chunk of points, and then after all the disastrous clay events (though he still won one Masters and the FO) he had to have his wrist injury and then appendicitis!

I do hope he can pick up, if not later this year then next year, the way Fed did in 2014 after his horrible 2013, or Murray this year after a below par 2014.

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 11:06 am

Fed to win this Masters against Ferret Smile

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 11:20 am

I think Fed plays the best among the four remaining. I do hope he wins the title, if not then Ferrer.

by temporary21 Sat 16 May 2015, 11:39 am

Nadal isn't losing because he's physically tired he's losing the match in tennis terms. I see no evidence he's struggling to dominate physically whatsoever, nor is speeding up causing him to look tired at all. He's not in form, and he's not in form because he's older and not as sharp as he once was. That's all there is to it.

by sirfredperry Sat 16 May 2015, 1:07 pm

While Rafa's confidence has gone down, the confidence of those who play him is going up. People now think they have a chance against him on clay. After every Rafa defeat I keep repeating the mantra that he'll still win the French, that he's still favourite at RG.
But the argument is getting less and less persuasive, especially as Rafa now has fewer matches at RG before running into the big boys.
It's still going to be a challenge for anyone to get three sets off him at his favourite venue. However, Djoko could soon find himself in the position Fed was in in 09 when Rafa lost to Soderling. It's the "now or never" scenario.

by Belovedluckyboy Sat 16 May 2015, 1:24 pm

I think Rafa is good enough to at least reach the QF to meet any of Fed, Novak or Murray. Hes not physically unwell, unlike in 2009, and how many players could blow Rafa off the court on clay for three to five sets On slow clay at RG? Also, there's no night matches at RG so he doesnt need to get used to heavy conditions at night. I do believe he would fight till the bitter end at RG, for thats all that matters to him now, not the winning at the Masters, its like if not at the FO then where else?

Unless a player like Stan has to meet Rafa in the fourth round and with the help of heavy conditions, like a rainy day and rain breaks, which may help Stan (should he not be able to sustain the hard hitting when not having any rain break), Rafa may be fortunate enough to avoid the hard hitting guys and also ends up in Berdych's quarter.

Not forgetting, the trio of Fed, Novak and Murray would also have their own opponents to worry about before the QF, there's no guarantee that theyll reach the QF to meet Rafa.

by temporary21 Sat 16 May 2015, 1:35 pm

I agree. There no getting away from it. Much as Rafa will go down taking an army with him. This must represent the best go Novak is going to get at this

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 1:58 pm

Come on Ferrer, save the tennis world, crush him.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 1:59 pm

Haddie-nuff wrote:
Josiah Maiestas wrote:By calling you a vulture BB, she's saying that Rafa is effectively dead.

Quitting already!?

Well JHM I didn't think it was politically correct for Mods to join in the wumming..but then it should not be such a surprise

LOL

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 2:01 pm

Novak vs Ferrer. I do not even know who I will be rooting for.

by bogbrush Sat 16 May 2015, 2:06 pm

I'm looking forward to the next Federer / Ferrer match as the chance for a new record of successive wins by one player over another. Might as well be tomorrow.

(Federer has Youzhny as back up for this record should he meet him again)

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 2:16 pm

Nole breaks. Looking mundanely comfortable so far.

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 2:39 pm

Ferrer doing the hard work as usual, then licking his wounds.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 2:52 pm

Without having to do too much, Nole wins the first set quite comfortably.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 3:09 pm

sirfredperry wrote:After every Rafa defeat I keep repeating the mantra that he'll still win the French, that he's still favourite at RG.
But the argument is getting less and less persuasive

Agree with all that but still think he is the man to beat there. Roger seems to agree with us too:

But he seems like he’s doing just fine and regardless of what anyone says to me he’s the favourite to win the French Open. The guy’s only lost there once in 10 years. There’s no way past that guy being the absolute favourite for that tournament.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 3:12 pm

A lot of drop shots from Nole today.

by It Must Be Love Sat 16 May 2015, 3:19 pm

summerblues wrote: For me he is still the #1 favorite for the FO, though I agree it is far more open this year than usual.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 3:41 pm

Pretty straightforward.

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 3:49 pm

Match of the year this one.

by **laverfan** Sat 16 May 2015, 4:08 pm

There was a third set in there somewhere, but Djokovic managed in two.

Wawrinka may be a better opponent given how he played against Nadal, but Federer has the beating of Djokovic. If Wawrinka plays like he played against Nadal, Federer stands very little chance.

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 4:23 pm

Stan can't pull 2 nights at that level, though I fancy him more beating Djoko then Fed would.

by LuvSports! Sat 16 May 2015, 4:23 pm

Don't agree. It's like saying Rosol would have beaten anyone on that day he beat rafa in wimby '12. His game style allows the big hitters to tee off when his loopy topspin sits up lands short. I wouldn't be surprised if Stan won but feds won't give him as much to go off as rafa did.
Stan was brilliant but it's a diffo ball game vs others.

by TRuffin Sat 16 May 2015, 5:02 pm

sirfredperry wrote:While Rafa's confidence has gone down, the confidence of those who play him is going up. People now think they have a chance against him on clay. After every Rafa defeat I keep repeating the mantra that he'll still win the French, that he's still favourite at RG.
But the argument is getting less and less persuasive, especially as Rafa now has fewer matches at RG before running into the big boys.
It's still going to be a challenge for anyone to get three sets off him at his favourite venue. However, Djoko could soon find himself in the position Fed was in in 09 when Rafa lost to Soderling. It's the "now or never" scenario.

Why "now or never" though for Djoko and the French? A year from now, Nadal will be obviously even older- may be in decline even more. Federer will be older. Murray who knows if this clay success is a mirage or not. I don't see anyone for the next two years that is going to pass djokovic as the best player in the world, so he should have just as good a chance in the next couple of years. There is definitely a window there, but I don't see any reasons from a tennis perspective that it's only a one year thing.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 7:06 pm

Good luck Roger

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 7:18 pm

Sloppy start from Roger.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 7:27 pm

Stan does not like Fed's slices it seems.

by **laverfan** Sat 16 May 2015, 7:36 pm

Potholes on the court? chin

by temporary21 Sat 16 May 2015, 7:37 pm

Is that the pothole Novak and ferrer made?

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 7:44 pm

Great return from Fed to break, but otherwise a very loose game from Stan - I suppose he returned the favor from that sloppy service game that Fed had earlier.

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 7:46 pm

Fed takes the set 6:4.

by summerblues Sat 16 May 2015, 7:47 pm

Fairly routine first set to Fed.

by Jahu Sat 16 May 2015, 7:47 pm

Fed better win tomorrow, since RG is Nadal's again Laugh

by Sponsored content